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8 月各项经济数据均已显示经济开始出现触底回升迹象，国庆期间将会出台9月的社融，工业增加值，CPI，PPI 等经济数据，可能会确认经济的拐点。届时，市场底有望进一步确认。三季度以来，组合配置进行了相应调整，综合评估了行业长期竞争格局和公司的核心竞争优势后，进一步优化组合配置，保留了长期受益于人工智能产业趋势的核心通信算力，智能汽车零部件公司。在资源品方向止盈了估值回归的垄断央企，增配了经济触底回升后，高产能利用率下，复苏斜率更高的有色化工煤炭。同时在医药行业，综合评估了行业治理整顿的短期恐慌和公司的长期价值，增配了长期角度看，具有真正核心竞争力的创新药，和临床必需用药。我们认为行业整顿后，长期角度看，真正让患者获益，且具备卫生经济学价值的医疗产品会最终胜出。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.720Z","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2023年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=987305","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb054532c","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"上半年，国内经济预期的反复导致市场出现大幅波动。一季度（主要是春节前），较高的经济复苏预期带动市场显著回暖，顺周期板块表现较好。进入二季度、尤其是五一过后，市场又开始担忧经济复苏的持续性以及中央对于经济下行的定力，顺周期板块开始大幅下跌的同时，AI和中特估等主题投资表现靓丽。后续随着经济基本面持续走弱，汇率快速贬值以及风险偏好回落等影响，市场开始轮流下跌。二季度以来，组合配置进行了适度调整，综合评估了行业长期竞争格局和公司的核心竞争优势后，降低了部分复苏斜率缓慢的品种的配置，增配了基本面触底回升，产业政策和人工智能产业趋势共振的通信、半导体、汽车零部件和高端制造。同时在国内国企改革领域，增配了未来净资产收益率和股东回报率进入改善周期的低估值垄断央企。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.694Z","mo":"我们认为，目前的A股市场处于大底部区域，此时不悲观。首先，基本面来看，我一直以来的观点是，总量刺激政策出台的时间点大概率在7-8月。所以在此确立之前，顺周期板块会随着预期持续大幅波动，下跌要敢于做逆势布局；其次，最近风险偏好和流动性波动较大，但制约市场的核心因素还是汇率。如果不是汇率的持续超预期贬值，我认为市场早就应该企稳回升了。考虑到汇率已经贬值到去年的最低点，向下空间已经不大。最后，从我的投资体系和框架来看，目前无论是股债模型还是择时模型都显示市场已经处于大级别底部。基于此，我认为市场目前依然处于磨底阶段，哪怕指数继续惯性下挫，也并没有多少空间。展望未来，基本面维度，国内GDP增速在低基数的影响下明显走高，但复苏力度一波三折，目前对于宏观政策的预期是，后面应该有一揽子刺激政策对经济进行托底，但并非强刺激，所以复苏的方向不变，但力度有赖于政策力度。海外方面风险依然存在，加息末期经济衰退是大概率事件。流动性方面，随着美债利率持续上升，美国经济未来衰退风险越来越大，我们依然坚持目前的美元处于强弩之末，未来3-5年是美联储大的降息周期，全球流动性有望逐渐宽松。风险偏好方面，目前的风险溢价已经处于极值水平，向下空间不大。基于此，我们对于未来的市场是偏乐观的。我们一方面对于实体经济和景气行业保持紧密跟踪，不断衡量行业长期的竞争格局和公司的核心竞争力，精选具备核心竞争力的行业龙头。另一方面，我们对于人工智能、FSD等新技术所带来的社会和产业裂变保持敏感，虽然现在主题投资氛围较重，但值得我们深入跟踪，产业应用端的紧密跟踪比较重要，争取从中去伪存真，抓住产业爆发的机会。整体而言，结构来看，继续看好受益于经济复苏的顺周期，包括有色，化工，建材，机械；大消费里的白酒，家电，医药医疗；成长板块中的超跌品种，包括电子，汽车，高端制造，以及超跌的AI算力等。","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=962313","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb054532b","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"回顾一季度，国内方面，经济复苏趋势明确，较强的社融投放改善了市场的流动性；海外方面，美国银行业风险爆发，美联储加息预期降温的同时降息预期升温，美元处于走弱趋势。因此市场轮动加快，海外人工智能的突破为沉寂数年的TMT行业带来了新的想象空间，相关板块一季度表现突出，市场整体在底部区间震荡向上。一季度以来，组合配置进行了一些调整，综合评估了行业长期竞争格局和公司的核心竞争优势后，减持了部分新能源和军工行业公司，增配了基本面触底回升，产业政策和人工智能产业趋势共振的通信和电子。同时在消费领域，增加了中药、疫后复苏医药的配置。展望二季度，国内GDP增速在低基数的影响下明显走高，随着投资和消费转暖，复苏的趋势或进一步得到确认；但海外方面风险依然存在，加息末期海外银行业风险的发展趋势仍有不确定性。我们一方面对于实体经济和景气行业保持紧密跟踪，不断衡量行业长期的竞争格局和公司的核心竞争力，精选具备核心竞争力的行业龙头。另一方面，我们对于人工智能所带来的社会和产业裂变保持敏感，这可能成为未来几年的大主线，虽然现在主题投资氛围较重，但值得我们深入跟踪，产业应用端的紧密跟踪比较重要，争取从中去伪存真，抓住产业爆发的机会。","declarationDate":"2023-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.673Z","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=887355","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb054532a","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"回顾2022年，全年市场各个指数均震荡下跌。国内疫情，地产政策和美国加息就像三座大山，给市场带来了前所未有的持续冲击。因此我们在各个阶段都力争在控制回撤的前提下尽可能获取正收益。在上半年市场大幅下跌阶段，主要通过控制仓位，降低风险暴露。并在煤炭，地产上获取了一定的超额收益。在市场恐慌的下跌中，我们反复核验了持仓个股的核心竞争力，留下了能穿越困境的核心持仓。5月随着市场确认上行趋势，逐渐提高仓位到且调整了持仓配置，卖出了稳增长方向的建筑地产，增加了景气度最高的成长方向配置，包括汽车电子（智能化和电动化）、新能源（新能源车，储能和风电）方向的个股配置，力争在市场反弹中为组合创造更多收益。三季度随着疫情扰动，和地产数据的进一步恶化，不断降低仓位和风险暴露，且降低了组合的弹性和新能源的配置比例，转向于均衡配置，增配了成长中高确定性的军工和受益于联储加息尾声的黄金股。四季度，随着“三座大山”的边际变化，市场底部区域逐渐确认，逐渐加仓，维持均衡配置，增加了“后疫情”与经济复苏方向的配置。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.650Z","mo":"展望2023年，我们对于A股权益市场是比较乐观的，我们用基本面，流动性和风险偏好三维度来分析市场。从基本面来看，2023年1月美国制造业PMI是47.4%，是2020年6月后的最低值。美国的住房市场也快速降温，2022年四季度受加息和利率升高影响，美国住宅投资环比增速继续大幅下跌，整体来看，欧美主要经济体的很多先行指标开始下行。从我们的研究来看，过去五十年，每一次美债十年期与两年期出现倒挂，大概率未来8-10个月美国经济会陷入实质性衰退，而当前 美债收益率曲线倒挂正进一步加深。预计随着美国持续加息，美国经济后续将面临较大的衰退压力。我们判断，美国实质性衰退将在今年的2季度末3季度初出现。所以整体而言，欧美经济在2023年是高位衰退的态势。而国内经济与欧美正好相反，过去两个月是国内经济最差的时候，疫情管控彻底放松导致去年底国内经济基本算是按下了暂停键。当然，这是非常正常的，欧美和日本当时也是在疫情管控放松后，经济也经历了1到2个月的阵痛期。但随着感染人数的逐渐达峰，疫情的影响将逐渐减弱。考虑到中央经济工作会议的定调，后续随着对内循环的启动，地产的逐渐放松，新基建和消费的刺激，国内经济有望筑底回升。从海外流动性来看，美国的通胀已经开始连续超预期回落，美国经济也出现了衰退的迹象，这两点都会进一步制约美联储的加息进程。所以，我们认为美联储的加息已经是处于后半程尾端。从我的研究来看，不排除今年年底，美国会重启流动性宽松的状态，重启降息是有可能的。目前点阵图显示 今年11-12月降息的概率超过50%。所以对于海外的流动性而言，最紧缩的时候已经过去了，美元已经在高位回落，往后看，它从极度紧缩后面慢慢就变成一个适度紧缩的状态，然后到今年年底的话，大概就会变为逐渐宽松。从国内流动性来看，我们将继续保持适度宽松。首先，美元已经见顶，人民币汇率压力明显减轻，对国内流动性有较强支撑。其次，我们的通胀可控，保持适度宽松的流动性对经济复苏意义重大。从风险偏好来看，影响市场最核心的风险偏好就是疫情管控，这一点从现在来看已经解除，疫情流行期高峰已过，经济后续将确定性恢复。所以说从这个角度来看，风险偏好是逐渐往上走的。而且从我自己的风险溢价模型来看，当前各大指数的ERP都接近1倍标准差，后续有望逐渐回升。从这三个维度来看，国内流动性保持适度宽松，美国是从极度紧缩到适度紧缩，后续将逐渐宽松；基本面的话，国内是属于缓慢的底部攀升，美国是高位向下；风险偏好是逐渐往上走。所以，我对今年的市场整体是比较乐观的。从结构来看，我认为从全年看，消费和成长的投资机会是有望贯穿全年的。对于成长板块，我们更看好的是高景气度的赛道，比如储能里的大储PCS，消费电子里的被动元器件，汽车智能化和电动化，包括人工智能等。对于消费板块，我们更看好的是困境反转的医药和食品饮料（医药看好的主要是医美，消费医疗和创新药；食品饮料更看好高端白酒和小食品）。顺周期板块，我们认为也会阶段性受益于经济复苏，我们最看好的是有色和化工。有色主要是小金属的钼和锑，还有铜和铝。","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=865040","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545329","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"三季度，海外持续笼罩在战争和高通胀的阴霾下，国内稳增长持续弱于预期，消费、地产数据不佳。流动性层面，美联储超预期维持了强硬的货币政策立场，全球经济衰退预期有所强化。因此在经历二季度的大幅反弹后，消费，价值和高景气赛道成长股都先后下跌。A股市场波动加大，指数持续走弱。     三季度以来，组合跌幅略微跑赢基准。组合配置变化不大，维持均衡配置。综合需求景气度和成长确定性，增配了军工板块头部公司（电子，检测，材料）。随着海外美联储加息进入后半程，布局了在加息周期中持续有内生增长的黄金龙头。此外由于地产的下行幅度超预期，对地产产业链进行了部分减仓。    展望四季度，基本面来看，9月开始基建有所改善，地产需求依然偏弱，但随着对地产政策的逐渐松动，未来地产需求有望改善。国内经济依然处于弱复苏态势。反观海外，无论是美国抑或是欧洲，未来一年经济陷入衰退的概率非常大，所以海外经济处于高位向下的态势。     流动性方面，当前国内市场最宽松的时候已经过去，人民币的汇率压力会制约流动性的持续大幅宽松。影响全球市场最为核心的矛盾——美债近期有重新上行的苗头，主要缘于近期公布的就业数据继续超预期。短期来看，现阶段美元美债的波动率非常大，走势只能紧密跟踪，在看到美债利率见顶之前，全球的风险资产都会有所承压。但中期维度看，美元美债将进入拐点，流动性紧张局势有望逐渐缓解。     风险偏好来看，疫情局部爆发会阶段性冲击市场风险偏好。但目前A股的风险溢价水平已经进入历史的极低值，风险偏好继续下行空间很有限。     随着市场的大幅调整，很多优质公司已经隐含了相对悲观的预期。未来随着国内经济缓慢复苏，海外加息进入后半程后，很多优质公司已经处于长期胜率赔率都较高的位置。因此会择机增加优质个股配置，同时紧密跟踪产业政策的动向，在新能源，军工和复苏消费领域做好储备布局，精选业绩确定性高的个股。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.623Z","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=805692","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545328","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"今年二季度，A股市场波动加大，4月底前市场走势为普跌，主要是因为国内疫情爆发带来的经济下行担忧、俄乌冲突以及海外高通胀持续超预期，在此背景下，消费和价值风格受益于经济稳增长预期，表现相对占优，而高估值板块则大幅跑输市场。大类板块方面，消费、能源板块涨幅领先，科技、医药跌幅较大。4月底至今，随着疫情逐渐得以控制、内部经济担忧缓解以及流动性宽松，市场否极泰来，迎来了一波更为极致的结构性行情。二季度以来，组合配置进行了比较大的调整。在全球从通胀预期转移到衰退担忧的背景下，减持了上游资源股，保留了景气度最高，对经济复苏最敏感的细分行业如化工，新增了一些景气度向上且业绩估值匹配度较高的成长股(新能源车，风电，军工、储能)和未来会受益于经济复苏的消费龙头（白酒，医美，家居），此外还挖掘了仍处于被市场大幅低估的高成长，小市值细分行业隐形冠军。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.612Z","mo":"展望三季度，从基本面来看，目前欧美经济整体处于高位，而且都受到高通胀的压力。大概率明年1季度末2季度初，美国经济会正式陷入衰退。但从本轮欧美杠杆率来看，美国更可能是温和衰退，但欧洲衰退的尾部风险更大。从商品价格来看，工业金属拐点通常早于能源和农产品，工业金属价格已经拐头向下。国内经济因为疫情影响，所以提前在二季度见底，但展望3季度到4季度，宏观经济大概率是弱复苏。考虑到工业企业库存偏高，本轮弱复苏下企业盈利向上修复弹性也比较弱。从流动性来看，本周的FOMC会议宣布加息75BP，包括鲍威尔偏鸽的表态，我们认为美国加息已经进入后半程，高通胀被动紧缩下的衰退风险在提升。所以，对于美国的流动性，我们认为虽然短期依然易紧难松，但美债上行的空间也被锁定了。国内流动性会很宽松，虽然未来几个月会出现单月CPI上3，但这不会制约流动性的放松，后续整个经济压力很大，流动性要适度宽裕，才能配合稳增长，20大之前收紧的概率极小。从风险偏好来看，一方面是疫情有望逐渐得以控制，另一方面是稳增长的政策会陆续出台，风险偏好在三季度有望保持上行态势。基于此，我们看好三季度市场的结构性机会。后续我们会加大对景气度较好的细分赛道和个股深入挖掘，继续寻找景气度边际改善同时估值相对合理的品种，对组合的超额收益会更有帮助。看好三条主线：1）成长板块中景气度最高的风电和新能源车，军工，储能等。2）下半年会呈现CPI上行和PPI下行的格局，所以最近可以趁着调整加仓大消费里景气度相对较好的白酒，免税，医美，航空。3）地产后续竣工会加速，最近因为地产硬着陆预期导致不少地产产业链公司大跌，目前来看，地产产业链已经具备较高的赔率，可以逢低加仓水泥，工程机械，家居，物业等。","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=785650","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545327","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"2022年1季度中国经济仍面临不小压力，主要来自房地产部门的信用收缩、疫情管控对服务行业的冲击、资源品价格上涨对制造业利润的挤压。虽然中央释放了强烈的稳定预期，但在上述三重压力下，经济仍处于下滑趋势之中，上市公司盈利阶段性承压。 展望2季度及以后，我们对股票市场表现持乐观看法，一方面我国经济结构丰富、政策调整灵活，我国经济的韧性和弹性均值得期待；另一方面，经历了1季度的调整，市场的估值水平变得具有吸引力。在组合操作上，我们仍坚持以绝对收益为目标，坚持以合理的估值持有高质量增长的上市公司，并继续回避已经被充分研究、过度拥挤、估值透支的热门赛道。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.589Z","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=725175","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545326","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"2021年四季度宏观经济面临了需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱的困难，对上市公司盈利和投资者预期均有较为负面的影响。但中央经济工作会议对部分宏观、产业政策进行了修正，重新明确以经济建设为中心的工作方向，基于我国较为健康的宏观杠杆水平以及高效的政府执行力，我们对2022年的经济展望持乐观态度。 在宏观政策保持宽松和经济预期逐季改善的组合下，我们对2022年权益市场表现持乐观态度","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.571Z","mo":"过去3年市场风格演绎和变化都较为极致，这背后部分原因可能是微观投资者结构的变化，但我们对于这些变化缺乏有效的研究手段和跟踪渠道，因此本基金并不希望以“茅组合”或者“宁组合”作为投资决策的出发点，也不希望在已经共识度极高的赛道上进行大比例的配置。而在聚光灯并未完全照射到地方，我们仍能找到不少盈利稳定、治理良好、估值合理的上市公司，以绝对收益为目标，持有这些公司，赚盈利增长的钱，是更加符合持有人利益的选择。我们也相信在中国经济高质量增长的过程中，通过努力，我们的组合能找到足够多这样的公司。","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=709507","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545325","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"三季度总需求整体依然处于扩张状态，但部分工业品受制于能源约束供给出现了收缩，上游工业品阶段性供需失衡，给资源类股票带来了不错的投资机会，但另一方面，也给下游众多制造业产业链带来了不小的扰动，这样的扰动对总需求形成了负反馈。展望4季度及2022年，我们相信全球总需求仍处于疫情后的修复阶段，我们对于经济内生增长的持续性仍有较强信心。但我们不得不需要面对两个短期的矛盾，一个是个别债务违约后对整个房地产行业的信用冲击与“房住不炒“的矛盾，另一个碳基能源可能出现的阶段性短缺与全球碳中和路线的矛盾。事物总在矛盾中发展，我们也相信我们的政府终有能力去解决这些矛盾。作为基金管理人，我们一方面会规避矛盾解决过程中的相关风险，我们会尽量在组合中规避因房地产市场下滑和能源短缺带来的相关需求收缩；另一方面，我们也需要从矛盾中寻找投资机会，“拉闸限电”说明了我国电力体制急需为适应新型电力系统而进行深层次的改革，我们会积极在这一次改革中寻找能够提升中国电力系统效率的行业和公司。最后，回归到我们组合构建的初心，我们对于中国经济结构转型仍抱有长期信心，对其中蕴含的产业趋势仍抱有长期信心，例如我们过去报告中提到的国产替代、消费升级、工程师红利等，这些产业趋势中最好的上市公司，仍将在我们组合中长期占据较高比例的配置权重。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.564Z","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2021年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=654187","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545324","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"由于无论中国经济还是海外经济都处于复苏趋势之中，同时由于各经济体总需求尚未回到疫情前水平，因此全球央行均维持了宽松的货币政策，资本市场对于利率上行的担忧阶段性缓解，风险资产均大幅反弹。","declarationDate":"2021-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.544Z","mo":"展望下半年，我们对于全球经济的增长仍有信心，一方面无论是中国还是海外，疫情导致的消费需求萎缩尚未充分修复，另一方面疫情所暴露出的各种供给瓶颈也正在刺激各经济体进行更大规模的资本支出。同时，一些重要的产业趋势正在形成，例如电动车的渗透率正在超预期提升，中国的工程师红利正在加速辅能各行各业，以华为自建芯片生产线为标志，中国半导体产业的国产替代已经不可逆转，这些行业中长期格局的变化，均酝酿了巨大的投资机会。在接下来的组合管理中，我们会在两个方面改善、提升：一方面我们需要更勤奋的更新对新产业趋势的认知，提升自己对于行业、公司变化的理解能力。另一方面，我们需要更新自己对于价值评估体系，在产业变迁的过程中，静态的市净率和市净率可能已经不是合适的估值指标，我们需要用动态的视角去关注企业的长期价值，去寻找那些企业长期价值持续增长的投资机会。最后，全球供给瓶颈对通胀的威胁正在加剧，从风险管理的角度，我们会时刻跟踪未来通胀超预期上升对全球央行货币政策的影响，并做好及时应对。","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=633347","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545323","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"2021年1季度，在旺盛的海外需求和稳定的国内投资驱动下，经济仍处于扩张通道，从已经公告的上市公司一季报预告来看，重点上市公司盈利表现仍非常强劲。但海外经济的强势复苏带来的实际利率提升，对股票资产的定价带来了冲击，这导致了1季度股票市场波动率大幅提升。从本基金运作来看，我们在市场情绪过于乐观的时候，兑现了部分个股的收益，但仍然选择持有了大部分我们认为长期仍能为组合提供可观回报的公司，因此本基金在1季度也出现了不小的高点回撤。展望2季度，我们对经济的看法仍比市场更为乐观，一方面我们对国内地产行业的高景气维持的时间比市场更为乐观；另一方面，我们对美国经济的扩张幅度和时间跨度比市场更为乐观，毕竟我们在二战以后就从未见过美国如此大规模的财政政策和货币政策刺激，我们认为美国需求驱动的全球经济扩张仍有较大上行风险。另一方面，无论是中国的碳中和计划，还是美国过去3年资本支出的疲软，使得供给的瓶颈正在变得越发刚性，未来通胀的压力将逐渐增大。从股票市场的角度来看，过去两年随着无风险利率的下行，投资者对于股票资产要求的风险补偿也大幅降低，但这将在未来利率和通胀预期的上行的环境中面临较大的挑战。此时，我们对于估值体系需要有更为审慎的评估，未来我们需要更加坚持我们的选股标准：1）坚持盈利驱动的投资机会；2）坚持以能提供15-20%的3年年化收益率作为组合股票持仓的标准。经历了疫情的考验，我们发现了越来越多中国企业实际已经具备了全球竞争力，未来我们仍将坚持致力于寻找这样的上市公司，以获取企业盈利增长为投资目标。我们将以大消费、医药、科技、高端制造为主要方向，在细分行业上重点配置白酒、白电、新能源、化工、半导体等业绩增长确定的子行业。个股以一线龙头为主，近年来龙头公司的竞争优势和壁垒越发明显，其盈利增长的确定性更强；对于逻辑顺的高估值行业，估值难以进一步提升，将会把仓位收缩至板块内最核心的股票上，以防止边缘股票业绩不达预期后的估值下杀风险。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.521Z","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2021年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=572704","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545322","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"回顾2020年，突如其来的疫情中断了经济修复的步伐，但在全球主要国家和央行积极干预下，世界经济避免了进入长期衰退，从3季度开始生产、消费活动逐渐恢复。由于中国政府更加有效的疫情防控，中国经济率先修复，同时为全球需求提供了重要的供给支撑。在宽松的货币政策和经济修复预期的背景下，国内和海外的权益市场均取得非常可观的正收益。本基金在2020年度仍然坚持以估值合理性作为投资决策准绳，坚持以获得企业盈利增长作为投资目标，主要持仓集中于化工、新材料、新能源、家电、汽车等行业中具备全球竞争力的中国制造企业。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.513Z","mo":"展望2021年，我们对中国经济的看法仍然正面。一方面，短期来看，我们认为以房地产和基建投资为主要驱动的内需将继续保持平稳；更重要的是，我们对外需的看法较市场更为乐观，这里主要有两点原因：第一，美国经济在低利率的环境中将展现出较大的需求弹性；第二，本轮疫情显著增加了全球需求对中国制造业的粘性，中国制造业的全球份额提升或将维持。虽然我们对宏观经济展望比市场更为正面，但我们对2021年权益市场的展望会相对保守，原因在于：第一，当前A股估值水平已经并不便宜，从风险溢价来看，当前估值所反映的乐观预期已经接近上一轮周期2018年1月的顶部；第二，部分热门行业出现了明显的“抱团”迹象，大量资金集中买入少数上市公司，虽然这些公司的质地大幅好于2015年的互联网泡沫，但股价的表现远远也超过了实际盈利的增长，市值中已经隐含了非常乐观的中长期预期。以wind分类的偏股混合基金为样本，过去2年A股市场有72%的股票基金收益率超过100%，但2009-2018年的10年中，只有43%的基金实现了净值翻倍，如果我们去看美股200多年的历史，1801年-2011年股票资产剔除通胀后的年化收益率为6.7%。大样本、长时间的统计告诉我们，股票市场回报率不会偏离实体经济的回报率，无论向下或者向上的偏离，最后一定会均值回归。建立受托人责任，将持有人利益视同自己的利益，是资产管理行业基本的道德底线，因此我们仍将继续坚持以估值作为投资决策的准绳。另一方面，经历了疫情的考验，我们发现了越来越多我们中国企业实际已经具备了全球竞争力，未来我们仍将坚持致力于寻找这样的上市公司，以获取企业盈利增长收益作为投资目标。","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2002-10-08T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时价值增长混合","pinyin":"bsjzzzzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20855250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231224220010,"name":"王凌霄"},{"stockCode":"db20568137","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608170090,"name":"曾豪"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时价值增长证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=557390","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed4247fea5b3eb0545321","stockId":3000000050001,"sao":"3季度全球主要经济体继续实施积极的财政政策和货币政策，工业生产和居民生活也逐渐从疫情最差的时期中恢复，经济活动的恢复和积极的政策组合对全球资本市场均出现了正面的反应。展望4季度，我们认为经济修复和政策的不确定性有所上升：一方面疫情对居民生活的影响始终无法完全消除，这将持续抑制部分需求，未来的生产活动恢复的持续性可能动能不足；另一方面，随着中国疫情的全面抑制，国内宏观政策逐渐回归常态化，市场流动性也将逐渐回到正常水平。基于上述分析，4季度组合在仓位控制上会采取相对稳健的策略，在个股选择上，我们会对估值有更加严格的标准，更加专注于企业盈利的可持续增长。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:07:32.508Z","fund":{"_id":3000000050001,"stockCode":"050001","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":17,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2002-09-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":3046980000,"market":"a","tickerId":50001,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"博时价值增长证券投资基金","shortName":"博时价值增长混合(050001)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":85,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T05:32:37.869Z","m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