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，增量资金入市强化了慢牛行情特征，科技作为市场主线得到充分演绎，以有色为代表的周期方向也开始成为市场关注焦点。四季度市场转为震荡走势，在稍显平淡的指数背后，“科技+周期”双轮驱动的行情得到充分演绎，结构特征表现淋漓尽致。  债券方面，告别单边行情转为双向波动，波动率管理成为重点。一季度市场受资金利率波动和风险偏好上升影响，利率出现明显调整，其中前期较为极致的交易结构成为了市场波动放大器。二季度同样受到美国关税冲击影响，市场情绪重新转向乐观，带动利率快速修复。三季度反内卷的升温直接影响了债券的长期胜率驱动，通胀预期回升导致市场分歧明显加大，带动债券波动率上升，股债风险收益比分化进一步强化了资金流趋势。四季度市场延续调整，其中受交易结构影响较大的超长期品种大幅下跌，代表新的市场共识已经形成。  全年组合坚持资产配置理念，适时调整组合股债配置，努力优化组合风险收益特征。股票方面，组合采用多策略管理框架，充分发挥不同策略间的分散化效果来平滑组合波动，通过策略配置权重调整来更好地契合市场节奏，并积极参与ETF交易，灵活调整仓位和结构，把握结构性机会，力求增厚收益；债券方面，组合在坚持高等级信用债配置策略的基础上，也积极根据市场情况通过国债期货调节债券久期；转债方面，组合根据市场走势和投资判断，通过转债策略积极参与转债投资，较好把握了市场机会。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-01T12:54:21.593Z","mo":"在经历了2025年股市大幅上涨后，投资者对2026年股市表现充满憧憬。但在火热的市场背后，有一些现象值得我们关注。首先，宏观叙事高度一致，随着去美元化、AI革命、资源安全等宏观主题深入人心，主流宏观叙事交易变得愈发拥挤；其次，资产估值处于高位，在流动性驱动下，各类资产在过去几年轮番上涨，部分资产价格和估值已升至历史高位；最后，跨资产相关性上升，传统避险资产存在失效可能，分散配置难度显著增加。上述现象要求我们对各类资产波动率同步放大做好准备，组合管理上做到风险与收益并重，加强组合风险暴露的动态监控。  展望2026年股票市场，我们重点关注三大方向的投资机会。第一个方向是涨价链，PPI自2025年三季度开始修复，预计2026年同比有望转正，PPI修复是涨价链的核心驱动力。本轮涨价主要来自供给端，与以往需求端驱动的涨价有所区别，更多是供给扰动与低库存共振下的“不得不涨价”。尽管涨价逻辑不同，但结果相似，均通过价格信号尝试重建供应链库存，短期内具备一定持续性。从价格传导机制看，我们重点关注涨价链在中游行业逐步扩散带来的投资机会。第二个方向是地产链，地产销售和投资在经历前期持续下行后，我们从国际对比、资产定价、微观行为等多个维度观察到地产有望出清企稳的信号。需要承认的是，地产能否企稳，市场存在明显分歧，但也正因分歧存在，地产链当前的赔率具备吸引力。综合考虑胜率与赔率后，我们认为地产链投资机会值得重点关注，可根据关键路标确认情况做好标的选择与仓位管理。第三个方向是AI链，过去一年AI上游算力相关机会已被市场充分挖掘和定价，除算力外，其他存在供需缺口的细分环节仍是值得重点布局的方向；下游应用则重点寻找拥有数据壁垒的特定垂类领域，其不可替代性有望转化为良好的商业价值与投资价值。  展望2026年债券市场，在经济增长现实与通胀预期的博弈下，预计整体呈区间震荡走势，在此过程中机构行为或将成为阶段性关键线索，对市场结构产生显著影响。随着宏观主要矛盾逐步确认，债券市场预计将再次迎来波动率放大的过程，我们需为此提前做好应对准备。","fund":{"_id":3000000023040,"__csrcFundId":14629,"stockCode":"023040","masterFundShortName":"中欧多利债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":23040,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"中欧多利债券(023040)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T03:41:38.506Z","name":"中欧多利债券型证券投资基金","pinyin":"zodlzqxzqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"setUpAssetScale":1218394559.21,"setUpDate":"2025-01-22T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":1218394559.21,"inceptionDate":"2025-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20578000","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81203180090,"name":"华李成"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧多利债券型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1458996","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3dc7fea5b3eb0542314","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000023040,"sao":"2025年三季度股票市场迎来久违的趋势性行情，带动资产所有者在股债间进行明显的配置调整，而调整本身强化了市场行情走势。三季度中证800指数上涨19.83%，中债新综合财富（1-3年）指数上涨0.24%。  股票层面，市场告别了上半年的震荡走势，转入趋势性行情。随着行情演绎，市场共识快速形成且得到强化，即资产配置调整带来的资金流入或是本轮市场上涨的主要推动力。导致资产配置调整的原因或来自于股债夏普比率的边际变化，债券预期收益下降以及股票风险特征阶段性改善是两大催化剂。落实到结构上，行业层面，科技是市场的绝对主线，科技内部的细分结构被投资者充分地挖掘和轮动。除此之外，有色也是期间持续性较强的另一方向。风格层面，占优风格从前期的小盘成长逐步切换到大盘成长，成长风格持续占优，但也需注意成长和价值间背离程度也到了历史较高水平。  债券层面，反内卷直接影响了债券的长期胜率驱动。过去几年推动债券持续上涨的重要驱动是和通胀相关的叙事，反内卷通过影响通胀预期，导致债券的长期胜率被边际弱化，市场分歧明显加大。市场分歧加大一方面限制了债券下行空间，对债券预期收益形成压制；另一方面也提高了债券的换手率和波动率，导致债券夏普比率下降，加速了资产所有者在股债间的配置调整。  三季度组合坚持资产配置理念，适时调整组合股债配置，通过积极管理股票仓位较好把握了股票市场的机会。股票方面，组合采用多策略管理框架，充分发挥不同策略间的分散化效果来平滑组合波动，并通过策略配置权重调整来更好地契合市场节奏，并积极参与ETF交易，灵活调整仓位和结构，把握结构性机会，力求增厚收益；债券方面，组合在坚持高等级信用债配置策略的基础上，也积极根据市场情况调节债券久期；转债方面，组合根据市场走势和投资判断，通过量化转债策略积极参与转债投资。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:06:20.301Z","fund":{"_id":3000000023040,"__csrcFundId":14629,"stockCode":"023040","masterFundShortName":"中欧多利债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":23040,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"中欧多利债券(023040)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T03:41:38.506Z","name":"中欧多利债券型证券投资基金","pinyin":"zodlzqxzqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"setUpAssetScale":1218394559.21,"setUpDate":"2025-01-22T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":1218394559.21,"inceptionDate":"2025-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20578000","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81203180090,"name":"华李成"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧多利债券型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1377856","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3dc7fea5b3eb0542313","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000023040,"sao":"2025年上半年市场风险偏好整体延续去年9.24政策转向后的改善趋势，机构和居民在股债间资产配置调整有序进行。期间市场也经历了美国关税政策等扰动，但从结果看市场韧性明显提升。上半年中证800指数上涨0.87%,中债新综合财富（1-3年）指数上涨0.67%。  股票方面，市场在震荡中逐步走出趋势，共识正在形成。上半年市场整体保持震荡行情，但在震荡背后指数波动率显著回落。特别是在经历4月初美国关税政策扰动后，投资者重新思考和定位目前交易结构下的市场波动率和下行风险，伴随着共识逐步形成，指数也开始走出趋势。在相对平淡的指数背后，各类结构性机会轮番涌现，AI、黄金、银行、新消费、创新药等板块轮番表现，市场赚钱效应明显改善。回顾上半年的行情，在波动率得到有效管理的情况下，投资者对下行风险的担忧有所减弱，进而导致仓位择时的难度明显增加。今年表达观点的方式更建议通过结构而非仓位，在仓位管理上不轻易低配。  债券方面，市场有惊无险基本延续前期趋势，但后续需关注波动率放大风险。年初市场整体还沉浸在前期多头氛围中，春节后受风险偏好回升影响市场出现明显调整，后续又受美国关税政策影响市场快速修复，事后看交易结构或是导致本轮调整的主要因素。随着收益率逼近关键点位，面对高胜率、低赔率的博弈困境，市场波动区间持续收敛，但波动率无法被无限制压降，需要为后续波动率放大做好准备。  上半年组合坚持资产配置理念，适时调整组合股债配置，努力优化组合风险收益特征。股票方面，组合采用多策略管理框架，充分发挥不同策略间的分散化效果来平滑组合波动，并通过策略配置权重调整来更好地契合市场节奏，并积极参与ETF交易，灵活调整仓位和结构，把握结构性机会，力求增厚收益；债券方面，组合在坚持高等级信用债配置策略的基础上，也积极根据市场情况通过国债期货调节债券久期；转债方面，组合根据市场走势和投资判断，通过转债策略积极参与转债投资，较好把握了市场机会。","declarationDate":"2025-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:06:20.298Z","mo":"展望下半年，股票市场或有望走出趋势性行情，市场共识快速形成且得到强化，即资产配置调整带来的资金流入或是本轮市场上涨的主要推动力。导致资产配置调整的原因或来自于股债夏普比率的边际变化，债券预期收益下降以及股票风险特征（阶段性）改善是两大催化剂。目前看资产配置调整或刚开始，而且资金流动本身也会强化这一趋势，我们看好下阶段股票市场表现。在明确行情推动力后，另一个结论是节奏或重于点位，尝试厘清行情节奏能给组合带来更多的安全边际，下阶段行情升级的关键信号或在于零售资金的入场节奏。  落实到结构上，如果我们看好行情持续性，市场通常会呈现出“指数强、轮动快”的特征，因此建议配置仓位优先关注高Beta敞口、交易仓位尝试做好热点板块间的高低切换。目前看高Beta敞口推荐关注非银和港股，低位板块则继续推荐关注反内卷。目前的市场反馈给我们提供了理想的介入位置，但要求我们厘清后续投资逻辑。  按照我们的理解，反内卷作为重要的结构性改革，政策决心不应被低估。只是反内卷和供给侧改革的主要区别或在于反内卷更加强调法治化、市场化，这决定了过程是渐进的，难以一蹴而就。反内卷已从第一阶段的政策驱动，转为第二阶段的盈利（预期）驱动，重点关注长期需求有看点、短期供给有变化的相关行业。目前看相关行业的估值和筹码结构决定了其风险回报结构有明显的非对称性，现阶段值得积极参与。  反内卷对于债券市场也有重大影响，最关键的或是反内卷直接影响了债券的长期胜率驱动。过去几年推动债券持续上涨的重要驱动是通缩叙事，只要通缩叙事没有被证伪，风险偏好、交易结构等因素更多只是让市场反弹而非反转。目前看反内卷确实影响并改变了一部分投资者的通胀预期，导致债券的长期胜率被边际弱化，市场分歧明显加大。市场分歧加大一方面限制了债券下行空间，对债券预期收益形成压制；另一方面也提高了债券的换手率和波动率，尽管波动率上升对个体来说提供了交易窗口，但对整体来说更应关注的是债券夏普比率下降。反内卷作为短期无法证伪的重要变量，预计会对债券市场持续产生影响，或是我们判断下阶段债券走势的题眼所在。","fund":{"_id":3000000023040,"__csrcFundId":14629,"stockCode":"023040","masterFundShortName":"中欧多利债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":23040,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"中欧多利债券(023040)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T03:41:38.506Z","name":"中欧多利债券型证券投资基金","pinyin":"zodlzqxzqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"setUpAssetScale":1218394559.21,"setUpDate":"2025-01-22T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":1218394559.21,"inceptionDate":"2025-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20578000","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81203180090,"name":"华李成"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧多利债券型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1350959","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3dc7fea5b3eb0542312","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000023040,"sao":"2025年一季度宏观叙事和去年发生明显转变，市场风险偏好开始回升，股债走势和去年相比发生明显变化。一季度中证800指数下跌0.32%，中债新综合财富（1-3年）指数下跌0.13%。  股票层面，1月以机器人为代表的科技方向开始走强，春节后DeepSeek点燃了投资者对于AI产业的投资热情，科技成为阶段性市场主线。港股科技龙头作为确定性受益AI产业趋势的标的，叠加南向资金的强化，成为市场共识方向，阶段性表现也更为亮眼。进入3月后行情有所扩散，消费和周期中的部分标的也开始走强，价格弹性或是贯穿其中的逻辑。  债券层面，开年以来债券市场波动率上升，除了资金面持续收紧、宏观叙事逻辑转变以外，更值得跟踪和关注的是背后隐藏的投资者预期变化以及引发的资金流向和筹码结构变化。在当下环境，波动率管理重要性大幅提升，要求我们管理好波动并从中寻找交易机会。  一季度组合仍处于建仓阶段，根据投资目标和市场情况执行建仓计划，努力完成股债目标仓位构建。债券部分主要配置存款和交易所债券，并积极通过国债期货策略寻找交易机会。股票部分主要通过ETF表达观点，努力把握港股和科技方向投资机会。随着组合逐步完成建仓，整体风险收益特征有望得到优化。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:06:20.295Z","fund":{"_id":3000000023040,"__csrcFundId":14629,"stockCode":"023040","masterFundShortName":"中欧多利债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":23040,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"中欧多利债券(023040)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T03:41:38.506Z","name":"中欧多利债券型证券投资基金","pinyin":"zodlzqxzqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"setUpAssetScale":1218394559.21,"setUpDate":"2025-01-22T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":1218394559.21,"inceptionDate":"2025-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20578000","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81203180090,"name":"华李成"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧多利债券型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1276868","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}