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地产对经济的影响仍在，但是边际影响放缓。因此，地产、化债对债市的支撑逻辑未变，但是边际上弱化。同时，由于央行对资金面的较好管控，以及对银行体系金融风险的考量，使得债券收益率的波动在政策可控范围之内。另外，我们观察去年三中全会和政治局会议，更多的去关注大规模失业风险和规模性返贫风险，决策层已经关注到相关潜在风险，去年9月底的重大政策调整也反映了这种意识。今年以来，决策层对市场和社会的呼声响应更快，对于相关问题给与了更快的回应和政策应对。7月初的中央相关会议，更进一步针对低价无序竞争作出安排，进一步推动反内卷。我们认为政策意识已经明显变化，但是具体政策的安排和落实是一个循序渐进的过程。这些政策意识的转变，政策安排的落实，最后传导到经济现实的变化，会逐渐弱化和改变地产-化债这个逻辑，会改变债市的基本逻辑，不过趋势的根本变化，可能仍需时日。但是在这个变化的过程，债券的投资会更加的复杂。","fund":{"_id":3000000015333,"__csrcFundId":11502,"stockCode":"015333","shortName":"天弘合利债券发起(015333)","masterFundShortName":"天弘合利债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15333,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:34:24.038Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"setUpDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5000000,"setUpShares":5000000,"pinyin":"thhlzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1340736","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1417fea5b3eb051a7b9","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015333,"sao":"今年一季度债券市场波动较大。主要体现为一月市场表现相对较强，进入二月份之后，随着市场资金面的持续紧张，以及deepseek等提振风险偏好，权益市场表现超过预期，债券市场出现了持续的调整。事后来看，风险偏好的改善和经济的阶段性企稳是条件，资金面的紧张是债市调整的主要触发因素。由于市场的波动，账户净值出现了一定的回撤。市场经过调整之后，中短端已经具有配置价值，长端利率债也进入了合理区间。3月下旬，资金面开始逐渐企稳，预计后续市场将逐渐震荡企稳。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:55:13.927Z","fund":{"_id":3000000015333,"__csrcFundId":11502,"stockCode":"015333","shortName":"天弘合利债券发起(015333)","masterFundShortName":"天弘合利债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15333,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:34:24.038Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"setUpDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5000000,"setUpShares":5000000,"pinyin":"thhlzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1270030","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1417fea5b3eb051a7b8","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015333,"sao":"2024年地产政策调整影响的第三年，也是新一轮化债政策影响较大的一年。受地产影响，地方政府土地收入下滑显著，相关领域持续调整。化债政策更进一步约束了地方政府和城投的融资行为，基建整体处在相对温和的状态。由于总量需求在地产和化债的约束下，增速相对缓慢。生产供给保持了较为旺盛，使得物价表现疲软。资产价格的疲弱表现一定程度上压制了社会的整体信心。为了对冲上述不利影响，货币政策整体保持积极和宽松的状态，并打通阻滞货币政策传导的关节，如禁止手工补息等。居民和金融机构在上述经济和政策环境中积极调整资产配置，固收类资产获得了广泛青睐，整体表现良好。为了扭转市场偏弱的信心，提振预期，改善经济，9月底出台了一系列经济、财政政策，并获得了较好的效果。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:55:13.925Z","mo":"经过2024年9月底及之后的政策调整以来，社会和经济整体呈现出了诸多的积极信号。我们预计政策将持续着力改善经济和社会预期，提振信心。但是与以往不同的是，政策在基建投资和地产方面的力度预计较为温和，更加着力在消费和科技等方面，同时也会关注供给端的优化。经济经过地产和化债的影响，在2025年可能进入一个缓坡，增速预计保持相对平稳。但是仍然需要宽松的货币环境来呵护。预计债券仍然会有一定的表现，不过投资难度将会显著增加。","fund":{"_id":3000000015333,"__csrcFundId":11502,"stockCode":"015333","shortName":"天弘合利债券发起(015333)","masterFundShortName":"天弘合利债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15333,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:34:24.038Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"setUpDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5000000,"setUpShares":5000000,"pinyin":"thhlzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1252298","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1417fea5b3eb051a7b7","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015333,"sao":"三季度以来，经济高质量发展进一步推进，新质生产力加快形成。但是也出现了一些新的困难，比如地方财政收入下滑，就业难度有所提高，同时企业经营压力也有所加大。管理层及时发现了这些新问题新情况，采取有力措施扭转了形势，显著地提振了信心和预期。三季度债券市场波折较大，8月市场出现较大的调整，9月初市场企稳下行，利率债一度触及低位。9月下旬，由于相关政策的出台，利率债和信用债均出现了显著地调整。由于市场快速的调整，给我们的组合带来了一定的回撤。我们认为未来，经济的高质量发展仍是要坚持的方向，同时，要解决当前面临的困难和压力，融资成本的下降也是应有之义，因此，债券经历调整之后，仍会有较好的配置价值。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:55:13.922Z","fund":{"_id":3000000015333,"__csrcFundId":11502,"stockCode":"015333","shortName":"天弘合利债券发起(015333)","masterFundShortName":"天弘合利债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15333,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:34:24.038Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":400005043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024年外需持续微弱下滑。如果美国就业市场能大幅放缓，则联储会开始降息，从而提振全球经济，美国通胀是全球经济周期的重要变量。整体来讲，2024年对债券市场仍然较为有利，但是绝对收益率过低或会限制全年债券基金的表现。","fund":{"_id":3000000015333,"__csrcFundId":11502,"stockCode":"015333","shortName":"天弘合利债券发起(015333)","masterFundShortName":"天弘合利债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15333,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:34:24.038Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"setUpDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5000000,"setUpShares":5000000,"pinyin":"thhlzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1053779","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1417fea5b3eb051a7b3","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015333,"sao":"2023年3季度，就经济基本面来看，中国经济进入弱复苏阶段，PMI从5月的48.8，上升到9月的50.2，上行幅度显得较为温和和缓慢，一方面是因为外需持续走弱，一方面是因为国内地产还没有太大起色。同期，中美经济和货币政策周期的错位，导致中美利差拉大，人民币贬值压力凸显，整个3季度美元兑人民币离岸汇率都在7.1-7.37之间高位震荡，这在很大程度上制约了资金中枢的下行空间，在8月降息后，资金中枢一路抬升，央行一方面降低OMO以实现降低LPR及信贷利率，一方面又抬高资金中枢以面对汇率的压力。9月当月，1年国开上行约19BP，3年上行11个BP，10年上行约8BP，9月单月上行幅度吞没了7-8月以来的下行幅度，因此债券市场在整个3季度是一个先牛后熊的震荡市场。基于经济基本面的恢复和汇率的压力，我们在8月底之前降低了组合久期和杠杆，从而有效控制了9月以来的回撤，实现了产品净值的平稳增长。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:55:13.911Z","fund":{"_id":3000000015333,"__csrcFundId":11502,"stockCode":"015333","shortName":"天弘合利债券发起(015333)","masterFundShortName":"天弘合利债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15333,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:34:24.038Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"setUpDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5000000,"setUpShares":5000000,"pinyin":"thhlzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=987720","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1417fea5b3eb051a7b2","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015333,"sao":"时间如白驹过隙，2023年转眼间已经过去一半。上半年市场演绎与2022年底的市场预期大相径庭。2022年底，由于防疫政策的优化和疫情必然退去的预期，市场预计2023年的经济将强劲反弹。彼时，相比于经济增长，我们更担忧通胀的出现：我们研究了全球7个国家地区在疫情管控优化后的表现，发现通胀大多会快速反弹。但对于经济增长，因为我们看到财政政策有放缓的苗头，我们在2022年底并不认为经济增速能够反弹到很高。所以在2022年底，我们认为未来的3-6个月，通胀和经济可能都会快速反弹，然后经济趋缓，但通胀持续上行。很快，我们的部分预判在第一季度被证伪，我们看到经济反弹，但并没有看到通胀上行。通胀的低迷说明了两个问题，一是国内消费整体不强，居民尤其是中低收入居民的购买力和购买意愿都不强，二是劳动力市场尚不牢固。这使得我们对消费和经济变得担忧。叠加欧美加息控通胀的背景下，出口很难对经济形成一个强劲的拉动。所以在3月份，我们认为经济反弹最快的时间已经过去，在疫情期间压抑的消费需求都已经释放完毕，未来的3-6个月时间，经济增长和通胀可能进入双重放缓的局面。这是我们从去年底以来，第一次对宏观展望观点进行大幅修正。3-6月的经济和通胀数据，都如同我们的预判一样持续放缓。在1-2月，基于经济本身的反弹以及对通胀的担忧，我们仓位比较轻，这在一定程度上错过了信用利差收敛的行情，导致产品在今年1季度表现一般。进入3月后，基于宏观观点的修正，我们大幅增加了久期。而后的行情如我们预判一样演绎：伴随经济增速和通胀放缓，债券收益率大幅下行。因为我们在整个二季度都维持了较高的久期，所以产品获得了显著超越市场的回报。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:55:13.909Z","mo":"站在当前时点展望未来3-6个月的宏观经济显得极其困难：因为国内外经济周期处于阶段性低点，基于经济本身的韧性，无论是内需还是外需，其向上向下的概率变得难以判断。而债券收益率下行到低位后，波动性会加大，组合管理的难度会增加。虽然组合管理难度会增加，但是作为基金经理，我们并不希望经济持续走弱。我们希望中国经济发展更快更好，希望中国科技能突破美国封锁，希望中国能制造出自己的光刻机，希望我们的大模型能超越GPT，希望我们的老百姓生活越来越好。经济越来越好，债券收益率就能越来越高，债券基金才能得以持续发展。","fund":{"_id":3000000015333,"__csrcFundId":11502,"stockCode":"015333","shortName":"天弘合利债券发起(015333)","masterFundShortName":"天弘合利债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15333,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:34:24.038Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"setUpDate":"2022-07-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5000000,"setUpShares":5000000,"pinyin":"thhlzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘合利债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=963339","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1417fea5b3eb051a7b1","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015333,"sao":"一季度宏观经济呈现弱复苏格局，其中与居民活动相关的服务消费恢复较快，房地产相关销售、投资触底反弹，基建、制造业延续较好，出口延续下滑，并在1、2月份呈现阶段性触底迹象，总体而言，内需向上，外需向下，国内宏观经济呈现触底反弹迹象；金融市场层面，预期的波动成为主导市场定价的主因，春节前，市场对宏观经济和政策预期急剧转暖，风险偏好抬升，股涨债跌，春节过后，预期快速消退，股跌债涨，债券内部来看，收益率总体呈现先上后下格局，但不同品种间分化加剧，全季度来看，利率债收益率短端上行长端持平，信用债收益率普遍下行。组合操作层面，一季度组合仓位根据市场判断相机抉择，总体获取了与风险相匹配的收益。","declarationDate":"2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:55:13.906Z","fund":{"_id":3000000015333,"__csrcFundId":11502,"stockCode":"0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