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中证500、中证1000和中证2000指数，主要原因在于一季度受DeepSeek等一系列科技领域利好刺激，中小市值成长风格占据主导，市场情绪总体较为积极，大盘价值风格则受制于宏观经济基本面尚未出现根本性扭转，缺少趋势性上行动力，叠加一季度货币宽松政策预期落空，整个大盘价值板块以小幅回调收场。　　进入四月份，市场情绪遭受外部因素扰动的明显冲击，各国资本市场在“去风险”交易的裹挟下全线受挫，但就中国市场而言，可能存在比较明显的超调。中国作为全球第二大经济体和最大工业生产国，内部因素才是主导力量，外部因素只能居于辅助地位。2018年我国首次遭遇“贸易战”时，对于其烈度和持续性的判断存在比较明显的分歧，市场预期也有所反复，导致全年市场表现疲弱，而一旦明确加大政策刺激力度和通过科创板大力推动科技创新，市场在2019-2020年就进入复苏阶段。同样，2021-2023年之间资本市场的回落，虽然也有外部地缘环境紧张程度加剧和全球主要央行进入流动性紧缩周期，但更重要的原因还是在于国内当时正在经历新旧动能转换的“破旧”阶段，而一旦2024年下半年政策明确“破旧”阶段告一段落并转向“立新”阶段之后，市场也立刻释放了强劲的反弹动能。因此，在当前我国发展阶段已经完全进入“立新”阶段，政策风险偏好显著升高的情况下，国内社会预期已经出现扭转，阶段性的外部扰动并不会改变内部因素变化的趋势。　　未来几个月，一是美国关税政策所带来的预期除了更高的通胀之外，也包括更大概率的经济衰退，而从市场反应来看，大部分资金显然认为美联储所面临的更紧急的问题是衰退而非通胀，降息预期近一个多月来大幅升温，甚至衰退预期本身就已经通过美国长期实际利率的下行营造了宽松的氛围，相对充足的资金供给对市场形成基本支撑；二是我国政策工具箱中还有较多选项，可以用于对冲外部扰动，加快类似2018-20年的市场传动过程，甚至不止于货币和财政政策，我国在科技、产业等政策方面也有比较大的操作空间，舆论上也有比较充分的应对预案，有望对信心形成提振，特别是在美国方面反复制造不确定性的情况下，A股和港股凭借扩大内需及对外开放政策的确定性有望成为全球权益市场中相对避险的资产；三是年初以来随着房地产、地方债、中小金融机构三大风险得到一定程度的有效管控，我国力求抓住难得的战略机遇期，赋予了科技企业、民营经济和地方政府更大的自主权以调动各方积极性，推动经济实现高质量发展，其成效有望自二季度起逐步显现，为市场注入信心。　　综合来看，后续将继续关注欧盟对于加收关税的应对措施等潜在风险，我们判断可能并不会影响今年权益市场的整体上行趋势。　　A500ETF联接由于成立未满6个月，未统计跟踪误差等数据。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:06:00.571Z","fund":{"_id":3000000022438,"__csrcFundId":14429,"stockCode":"022438","masterFundShortName":"华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF联接A/C","fundSecondLevel":"company","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":22438,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF联接A","lastUpdated":"2026-04-17T17:12:04.144Z","name":"华泰柏瑞中证A500交易型开放式指数证券投资基金联接基金","pinyin":"htbrzza500jyxkfszszqtzjjljjj","fundCollectionId":4000050440000,"setUpAssetScale":838364546.75,"setUpDate":"2024-11-11T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":838364546.75,"inceptionDate":"2024-11-14T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":7,"__indexSourceEastMoney":1,"__indexSourceCsi":1,"memoNum":4,"etfFundFlag":1,"feederFundFlag":1,"indexFundFlag":1,"indexId":1000000000510,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20791819","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":200824215200,"name":"谭弘翔"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"华泰柏瑞中证A500交易型开放式指数证券投资基金联接基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1278553","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}