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我们认为军工在年初第一波下跌的原因，一是年初市场风格由从成长转向价值，市场风险偏好降低，军工作为高贝塔板块跟随大盘出现显著回调；二是部分上市公司2021年四季度业绩不及预期，同时引起了市场对于整个板块2022年业绩的担忧；三是大宗商品尤其是以镍为代表的上游材料价格快速上涨，可能推升部分细分领域军工上市公司的原材料成本，市场进而担心整条产业链的业绩再一次下修。军工指数年内最大跌幅达40%，四月底军工也开始跟随全市场反弹。二季度中航工业集团增持了中航光电、中航高科和中航西飞，并且中航电子和中航机电同时停牌，两件事情都是对军工板块偏积极的。中航电子吸收合并中航机电后，新平台具备更高的稀缺性和重要性，同时拟配套融资50亿元，航空工业部分单位认购11.6亿元。关联方的积极认购，特别是中航沈飞、航空工业成飞两家主机厂首次参与兄弟单位的增发，彰显了航空工业集团对新机载平台未来的信心，也体现出集团对于整个军工板块未来的信心。三季度国企改预期提速，中航光电三期股权激励率先落地。中航电子吸收合并中航机电事件继续顺利推进，9月8日和9月27日分别获得国防科工局和国资委的批复，随着审批流程的不断推进，航空机载系统级供应商组建在即。此外，国产大飞机进程也顺利推进，C919在9月29日顺利取得型号合格证，首架机在年底顺利交付，从而带动C919产业链的未来预期，目前C919已获得800架以上的订单，随着民用空间的不断释放，将不断增厚产业链配套公司的营收和利润体量，大量产业链公司未来业绩预期的确定性也大幅提升。十月份在二十大“大安全”表述的催化下，军工取得了明显的超额收益，但后续三季报陆续披露，部分军工标的出现了业绩不达预期的情况，并且增值税问题开始对行业产生一定影响。随后军工开始逆市下跌，尤其是在防疫政策开始出现变化的情况下，市场资金开始流向政策催化相关的地产链和消费链，军工随着赛道股一起出现下跌。即使四季度军工龙头企业中航沈飞、中航西飞和中航光电的股权激励持续落地，也没有对军工起到带动催化作用。而在下跌的过程中，机构重仓的白马股明显受到更大的资金流出压力，下跌幅度明显大于指数。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:14:27.960Z","mo":"展望2023年，我们认为2022年对于军工的影响都会得到改善，军工央企已经在2022年持续推行均衡交付，收入与费用确认都将更加均衡。增值税问题有望出台细则，而产能的不断爬坡也会使得军工产业链的运行更加顺畅。更加重要的是，2022年年底申万军工指数TTM市盈率几乎处于近三年的最低分位数，整体的安全边际比过去2020年和2021年有了大幅度的提高。我们认为，2023年行业内部加剧分化的情况下，对于赛道方向和个股的选择将更加重要，我们将主要沿着以下几个方向进行布局：1.增速高于行业的高弹性方向：如军机产业链、直升机产业链以及航空发动机产业链；2.2022年低于预期，2023年低基数下有望困境反转的航天军工产业链、军用通信产业链和被动元器件；3.国产化刚性需求下国产替代加速的军工信息化产业链和部分上游军工新材料；4.股权激励落地后经营效率提升的航空主机厂。","fund":{"_id":3000000004139,"stockCode":"004139","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":28,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-03-05T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":915359000,"market":"a","tickerId":4139,"custody":"中国农业银行股份有限公司","name":"中邮军民融合灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中邮军民融合灵活配置混合(004139)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1629,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:07:17.297Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050540000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中邮军民融合灵活配置混合","pinyin":"zyjmrhlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20755581","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2307202260,"name":"王高"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中邮军民融合灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=869271","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7b37fea5b3eb046ffda","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004139,"sao":"三季度，军工板块波动收窄，从七月初至八月上旬延续了前期的震荡上行趋势，随后受到大盘影响，震荡下行至九月底，指数三季度下跌7%。三季度基金经理优化持仓结构，维持上游较低配置比例，以及中游和下游主机厂较高配置比例，增配部分有国企改预期的标的，并且根据估值和基本面的匹配度，降低了部分估值过高的标的，增加了部分低估值安全边际高的标的。军工板块是目前全市场中少数的高景气板块之一，从基本面角度看，军工行业有计划属性，免疫宏观经济波动，业绩的兑现度较强。预计三季报业绩端仍然延续此前较快增长的趋势，并继续在全市场保持较强的比较优势。三季度，国企改预期提速，中航光电三期股权激励率先落地，催化军工的行情。中航电子吸收合并中航机电事件继续顺利推进，9月8日和9月27日分别获得国防科工局和国资委的批复，随着审批流程的不断推进，航空机载系统级供应商组建在即。此外，国产大飞机进程也顺利推进，C919在9月29日顺利取得型号合格证，并有望在今年交付首架飞机，从而带动C919产业链的未来预期，目前C919已获得800架以上的订单，随着民用空间的不断释放，将不断增厚产业链配套公司的营收和利润体量，大量产业链公司未来业绩预期的确定性也大幅提升。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:14:27.957Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004139,"stockCode":"004139","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":28,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-03-05T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":915359000,"market":"a","tickerId":4139,"custody":"中国农业银行股份有限公司","name":"中邮军民融合灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中邮军民融合灵活配置混合(004139)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1629,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:07:17.297Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050540000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中邮军民融合灵活配置混合","pinyin":"zyjmrhlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20755581","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2307202260,"name":"王高"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中邮军民融合灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=810079","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7b37fea5b3eb046ffd9","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004139,"sao":"一季度军工回调有以下三方面原因：一是年初市场风格由从成长转向价值，市场风险偏好降低，军工作为高贝塔板块跟随大盘出现显著回调；二是某军工集团旗下部分上市公司四季度业绩不及预期，导致市场恐慌性的卖出该集团系的股票，同时引起了大家对于整个板块22年业绩的担忧；三是大宗商品尤其是以镍为代表的上游材料价格快速上涨，可能推升部分细分领域的军工上市公司的原材料成本，市场进而担心整条产业链的业绩再一次下修。二季度，军工板块呈现大幅波动走势，指数迅速下跌25%后迅速收复跌幅。今年以来，基金经理优化持仓结构，降低上游标的配置比例，增配中游和下游主机厂配置比例，并增配部分有国企改革预期的标的。二季度，中航工业集团增持了中航光电、中航高科和中航西飞，中航电子和中航机电同时停牌，两件事情都是对军工板块偏积极的。中航电子吸收合并中航机电后，新平台具备更高的稀缺性和重要性，同时拟配套融资50亿元，航空工业部分单位认购11.6亿元。关联方的积极认购，特别是中航沈飞、航空工业成飞两家主机厂首次参与兄弟单位的增发，彰显了航空工业集团对新机载平台未来的信心，也体现出集团对于整个军工板块未来的信心。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:14:27.955Z","mo":"从目前调研的情况来看，航空、导弹产业链高景气度没有改变，订单情况依然良好，我们判断上游原材料的价格对行业冲击最剧烈的阶段已经过去。随着军工产业链的产能陆续投放，业绩持续兑现，我们对上、中、下游的配置也会更加均衡，选股思路依旧是重点布局订单和业绩能持续兑现的子领域，重配行业格局较好、竞争壁垒较高、未来成长性好、长期市值空间较大、军用飞机和民用飞机通用的个股。2022年作为“国企改革三年行动”收官之年，国企改革加速推进将提振板块情绪，今年是国企改革三年行动的最后一年，也是稳增长的关键一年，军工集团等也会积极的行动。从基本面角度看，军工行业有计划属性，免疫宏观经济波动，短期受局部疫情冲击较小，且行业正处于“十四五”黄金发展期，具备长期配置价值。","fund":{"_id":3000000004139,"stockCode":"0041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