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出一定的“熊平” 特征。从宏观环境来看，以美国为代表的主要发达经济体展现出较强的经济韧性，但通胀压力也较为突出，致使降息预期反复波动。在此背景下，国内稳汇率的优先级提升，加之防控政策转变等因素，央行在货币投放上较为谨慎，并且伴随着同业存款自律机制的实施和一季度信贷投放的发力，银行特别是大行的负债压力相对较大，资金面整体保持在平衡略偏紧的状态。同时，科技成长领域的发展带动市场风险偏好有所提升，年初信贷脉冲释放以及经济复苏呈现出结构性亮点，这些情况使得市场对央行宽松政策的节奏和力度预期放缓，债券市场受到“股债跷跷板”较为明显的压制。在上述诸多因素综合作用下，债券市场整体上出现较为明显的下跌调整，短端利率波动相对更为明显。1年期国债收益率一度大幅反弹65个基点，攀升至1.6%附近，1年期国股大行同业存单利率也回升至 2% 以上。长端和超长端调整幅度相对小一些，最大调整幅度在25 - 35个基点之间，10年期国债收益率一度逼近1.9%这一关键位置。进入3月下旬，央行货币政策态度出现边际缓和迹象，资金价格中枢回落，债券市场情绪逐步企稳，收益率随之有所下行。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，根据市场情况灵活调整久期和杠杆水平。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.253Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1273530","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb0456957","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"2024年经济基本面方面，内需不足与地产投资下滑拖累经济增长，制造业和出口虽有填补但力度有限。海外方面，美联储抗通胀政策与降息预期交织，中美利差倒挂加剧人民币贬值压力。政策环境上，货币政策方面，央行加大逆周期调节，全年降准降息频次超预期，2月、9月各降准0.5个百分点，1月下调支农支小再贷款等利率，7月、9月两次下调公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率，引导LPR下行。财政政策方面，实施积极财政政策，三季度增大财政支出规模，安排财政赤字4.06万亿，发行1万亿超长期特别国债，落地“6+4+2”万亿化债方案。债券市场在经济“弱修复”与政策宽松的背景下走牛，收益率中枢下移，信用利差压缩。10年期国债收益率全年下行超过80bp，从年初2.56%降至年末1.68%，并创历史新低；30Y国债下行超过90BP，由年初的2.83%下行至1.9%的历史低位。短端利率下行更显著，1年期国债收益率降幅达100bp，曲线整体呈现“牛陡”。信用利差方面，城投债因化债政策推动信用风险缓释，信用利差压缩至历史低位，中短端城投债受青睐。产业债中，煤炭、电力等行业利差收窄，但地产债因行业基本面疲软仍存估值扰动风险。整体来看，前三季度信用利差持续压缩，8月后因理财赎回冲击阶段性走阔，年末修复至年内较高水平但仍处历史低位。资金面整体呈现相对平衡偏宽松的态势，资金利率整体围绕政策利率略偏上方运行， 1Y大行同业存单收益率全年下行较为明显，从2.4%附近下行至1.58%附近。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，根据市场情况灵活调整久期和杠杆水平。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.251Z","mo":"展望2025年，外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，国内需求不足、风险隐患等困难挑战仍然存在，积极的财政政策与适度宽松的货币政策延续，但外汇的掣肘短期内对适度宽松的货币政策有一定抑制，资金面短期内波动有所加大，对债市形成扰动，同时债市面临经济下行的尾部风险降低、局部指标出现一定企稳迹象和股债跷跷板效应等扰动波动整体有所加大。整体来看，认为当下债市面临多空交织的环境下，预计短期内可能呈现震荡行情，波动预计有所加大，从品种结构上看信用债的供需关系和票息价值会相对好一些，预计表现会好于利率债。","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1246713","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb0456956","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"三季度国内经济呈现出下行压力，总需求向生产端传导，物价整体呈现低位运行，经济活跃度进一步走低，私人部门信心与预期依然不足，实体经济融资需求偏弱。地产政策效应减弱，整体仍在寻底过程中，“以价换量”特征依然存在，进一步抑制了经济复苏的进程和市场信心的修复；外围方面，全球工业生产活动放缓，物价和就业走弱，美联储如期降息50BP。在此背景下，央行在7月下调政策利率基础上，9月再次下调政策利率，且幅度整体超出市场预期，逆回购利率下调至1.5%，1年MLF利率下调至2%，5YLPR也跟随7月政策利率下调至3.85%，并通过下调存款准备金率50BP释放资金超1万亿，市场对后续财政政策加码预期升温，风险偏好显著提振。债券方面，三季度债券收益率先下后上，10Y国债收益率由2.29%高位最低下行至2%附近，但随着风险偏好提振，一度反弹至2.25%附近，整体波动区间为[2%,2.29%]；信用利差收窄至历史低位后，受股债跷跷板效应影响，再度走阔至年内的高点水平附近。资金面整体呈现相对平衡态势，资金利率整体围绕政策利率略偏上方运行，波动略有加大，1Y大行同业存单收益率在二季末的基础上先下后上，整体偏震荡运行，整体波动区间为[1.84%,2.0%]。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，根据市场情况灵活调整久期和杠杆水平。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.248Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1174110","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb0456955","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"上半年债券市场整体呈现较为明显的下行走势，10Y国债收益率创历史新低，曲线先平后陡，信用利差持续收窄至历史低位。综合分析来看，经济复苏斜率放缓、价格持续以低于预期的方式修复、私人部门信心与预期不足、实体经济融资需求弱是主导债市走牛的核心因素，“存款搬家”及“手工补息”叫停带动理财、公募基金等规模增长，债券供给节奏偏慢加剧了“资产荒”，票息策略演绎至极致，地产政策放松、特别国债发行及央行的预期管理仅形成了阶段性的扰动。资金面整体呈现平稳偏宽松态势，波动相对较小，在央行精准滴灌精细化操作以及“防空转”的背景下资金利率围绕政策利率附近运行，保持一定刚性，杠杆套息空间相对较小，1Y大行存单下行约45bp至1.96%附近，与7天逆回购利率利差只有约16bp。报告期内，组合资产配置以短久期中高评级信用债为主，同时根据市场情况综合比较各类资产的性价比，灵活调整组合的久期和杠杆水平以及各类资产的配置比例和期限分布，保持组合的流动性。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.245Z","mo":"展望下半年债券市场，我们总体认为整体来看债市仍处于有利环境中，收益率仍有进一步下行的空间。经济复苏压力仍较大，价格将呈有限度的修复态势，稳增长诉求上升，货币政策进入新的宽松周期，资金结构也转向理财、非银等机构，债券尚不具备反转基础。外围降息周期启动对我国货币政策掣肘减轻，降息周期启动后，收益率中枢可能进一步下移，若降息再次落地，收益率创新低的概率提升。供给加快有望减缓“资产荒”，但钱多逻辑依然存在。截止目前地方债发行节奏偏慢，市场预期8-10月单月潜在供给有望增大，但在实体经济融资需求偏弱、风险偏好情绪不振的背景下，安全资产仍是追逐对象，阶段性的扰动将是机会。品种方面，期限利差处于相对陡峭，中长端具有相对性价比；资金结构的转变有利于信用债配置需求的释放，信用利差明显走阔的概率较低。","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1146963","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb0456954","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"一季度债券市场延续了去年12月以来的牛市，整体表现为票息策略演绎至极致，超长端表现较为亮眼，30-10Y利差压缩至15BP的历史低位，30Y国债收益率下行接近40BP，突破MLF的2.5%最低至2.39%，10Y国债也下行30BP附近，最低较1YMLF利率低25BP至2.25%，中等期限利率债表现相对弱一些，收益率下行在15-20BP左右，期限和信用利差压缩至历史低位，信用债收益率普遍下行30-45BP，信用利差也因此压缩至历史低位。资金面整体平衡偏宽松，波动有所降低，流动性分层整体有所下降，短端资金利率主要围绕在政策利率附近波动，1Y大行同业存单从2.4%附近下行至2.23%附近。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，精选信用债捕捉行业和个券机会，根据市场情况灵活调整久期和杠杆水平。","declarationDate":"2024-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.243Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1072531","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb0456953","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"报告期内，经济总体波折式复苏，有效需求不足，预期与信心偏弱，房地产销售低迷，地方债务压力增大，价格水平维持低位，央行货币政策维持宽松基调，债券市场呈现牛平走势，10Y国债下行近30BP，信用利差收窄至历史相对低位。“资产荒”行情延续，化债带动风险溢价快速收敛，弱资质城投表现最佳，低评级信用利差收窄至历史相对低位。具体来看，一季度经济复苏预期较强，信用脉冲式扩张，资金价格中枢边际收敛，收益率整体以上行为主，受益于信用利差优势和绝对收益水平相对较高吸引力较强，信用债配置需求释放，信用债表现好于利率债，信用利差自高位快速收窄。三月开始，经济强复苏强预期被证伪，4月经济复苏波折确认，风险偏好开始回落，央行于3月和9月两次分别降准0.25BP，于6月和8月两次降息，其中MLF分别降息10BP和15BP，在此阶段，债券做多情绪逐步释放，收益率陡峭化下行。8月下旬至11月底，防“空转”和稳汇率导致资金价格中枢抬升，叠加7月政治局会议后，宽信用政策预期升温，债券供给增加，债券收益率呈现平坦化上行，短端资产收益受到资金价格中枢抬升、银行负债端承压发行存单和赎回货基需求旺盛、年末临近叠加资本新规即将落地执行带来的机构投资者行为的扰动等因素的影响，收益率抬升和波动更为明显，1Y国债最高上行近70BP，但10Y国债最高仅上行18BP，期限利差收窄至历史低位。12月在偏弱的基本面催化下，随着资金面转松、存款利率下调以及政治局会议和中央经济工作会议落地对于稳增长的政策表述低于预期等因素的助推债券做多情绪释放，利率债表现优于信用债，超长债表现最佳，曲线陡峭化小幅修复，但仍处于平坦状态。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，精选信用债捕捉行业和个券机会，根据市场情况灵活调整久期和杠杆水平。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.240Z","mo":"展望2024年，宽财政加码、中美库存周期共振以及消费边际倾向维持修复，出口和消费带动总需求有限幅度的改善，通胀水平温和回升，企业盈利有望企稳修复，制造业投资维持弱修复态势，经济失速风险下降。但是，领先指标显示地产出清尚未完成，地产依然成为经济复苏的最主要风险因素，抑制信用扩张、信心与预期改善以及债务风险缓解，新动能难以抵消旧动能的增长缺口，需要加大财政支出维持基建投资适度增长。预计经济增速中枢可能依然维持在潜在增速之下运行。货币政策预计会配合经济稳增长需求，总量与结构政策并行，为配合宽财政，通过降准、增加MLF操作等释放中长期资金存在必要，同时预计防“空转”依然会对资金面有一定影响，资金面总体维持合理适度。总之，债市总体处于有利环境中，10Y国债收益率存在再创新低的可能。①经济增长仍处于潜在增长之下，价格修复动能偏弱，名义GDP增长中枢明显抬高的概率不大，决定债券收益率中枢继续上行的空间有限；②货币政策大概率维持宽松，降准降息仍有空间，若叠加中美利差的收窄，汇率压力缓解，资金价格中枢有望回归政策利率，经济偏弱和货币政策宽松的环境下，债券收益率中枢将进一步下移。","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1058536","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb0456952","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"三季度初基本面延续偏弱走势并有加速下探的迹象，7月份政治局会议释放出了较为积极的政策信号。财政、货币以及产业政策整体偏积极，但政策落地的节奏和力度相对克制，内生性信用扩张效果显现较慢，居民和企业的信心和预期提振有限，经济整体仍处于磨底阶段。市场走势方面，围绕政策预期、基本面现实和资金面的波动而呈现低位震荡走势，收益率整体先下后上，降息降准以后，随着地产政策陆续落地出台，叠加在外汇市场承压的背景下资金面有所收敛，市场出现较为明显的调整，短端上行幅度大于长端，收益率曲线有所走平，信用利差先收窄至历史低位后因市场调整修复至历史中位数附近。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，精选信用债捕捉行业和个券机会，根据市场情况灵活调整久期和杠杆水平。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.237Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=988114","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb0456951","date":"2023-06-29T16: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内债市做多情绪形成了一定的抑制。总体上，三季度债券收益率普遍下行，资产荒行情持续，信用表现优于利率。利率债突破上半年的震荡区间，各期限利率下行10-20BP，信用债收益率下行20-40BP，信用利差进一步压缩至历史相对低位。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，精选信用债捕捉行业和个券机会，久期保持在中性的水平。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.227Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=808317","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb045694d","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"回顾上半年，宏观经济面临三重压力，稳增长和宽信用的进展和效果以及对其阶段性发展的预期是影响市场的主线，但3月以来疫情冲击加剧经济下行压力，货币政策助力实体经济，呵护市场，资金面保持在较为宽松的格局，资金价格显著低于公开市场操作利率，实体经济融资需求疲软，“宽信用”效果有限，资产荒行情再度出现，信用表现优于利率，利率债总体呈现区间震荡走势，信用债则出现一波牛市，信用利差进一步压缩至历史相对低位。报告期内，组合保持中性的久期水平，根据市场情况综合比较各类资产的性价比，灵活调整各类资产的配置比例和期限分布，保持组合的流动性。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，精选信用债捕捉行业和个券机会，久期保持在中性的水平。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.225Z","mo":"随着疫情冲击减弱，复工复产、物流以及线下消费修复，三季度经济将进入修复阶段，但认为斜率偏缓，主要原因为1）疫情的不利影响仍将持续；2）债务可持续约束和地产领域流动性压力依然存在，叠加居民呈现去杠杆迹象，实体经济融资需求整体偏弱，宽信用效果有限；3）地产处于下行周期，地产行业风险还未充分释放，新的地产投资中枢明显下行；4）海外总需求走弱，叠加疫情防控政策的差异，出口将呈回落态势。有限度的内需修复，叠加出口回落，经济复苏的斜率难以同2020年相比。货币政策方面认为仍以宽松基调为主，流动性仍将保持合理充裕，虽然海外的发达经济体收紧货币政策会一定程度上制约国内货币政策进一步宽松的空间，但考虑到国内本土疫情的扰动仍在、地产行业风险还未充分释放，从经济环境的压力上来看，仍需要维持宽松的货币政策，保障流动性的相对宽裕，保障宽信用政策的传导，货币政策以宽松基调为主，预计较低的资金利率水平仍将维持一段时间，但考虑到资金利率已经较长时间低于政策利率，中期看预计资金价格或将温和抬升逐步向政策利率靠拢。综合来看，认为短期来看债市面临的环境偏有利，但目前中短端收益率已经处于历史相对低位了，后续存在回调风险，但尚未具备转熊的条件，阶段性调整后将呈现配置价值。后续组合会根据市场的情况灵活调整组合的久期和杠杆水平，保持好组合的流动性。","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=784234","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb045694c","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"报告期内，宏观经济面临三重压力，稳增长和宽信用的进展和效果以及对其阶段性发展的预期是影响市场的主线，1月份公开市场逆回购和操作利率同时调降10bp，降息力度略超市场预期，债券市场收益率整体下行约15-20bp，短端下行幅度相对更大，2月份金融数据超预期，多地地产调控政策出现松动，同时受到理财产品赎回基金等因素的影响，债券收益率在2-3月份转而上行，3月中下旬国内疫情发酵，加剧经济下行压力，货币宽松预期升温，债券收益率震荡下行；相比去年年底，除1年期品种有所下行外，其他各期限品种整体略有上行，信用利差总体小幅走阔。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，捕捉有利差的行业和个券机会，久期保持在中性略偏短的水平。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.222Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002301,"stockCode":"002301","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":7,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200091000,"market":"a","tickerId":2301,"custody":"中国民生银行股份有限公司","name":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金","shortName":"兴业短债债券(002301)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","inceptionDate":"2016-02-02T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:25:19.086Z","__csrcFundId":4450,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业短债债券","pinyin":"xydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20527938","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508193010,"name":"刘禹含"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业短债债券型证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=727175","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6577fea5b3eb045694b","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002301,"sao":"报告期内，在整体紧信用的基调下，地产严控与地方政府债务管控，经济由年初的复苏转为下行，同时疫情的反复和持续对经济的复苏形成一定的不利影响。货币政策2月份以后整体都保持平衡偏宽松，央行在三季度和四季度均超预期降准，收益率曲线整体上看呈现较明显的平坦化下行态势，信用利差收窄，其中10Y国债下行40BP至2.78%，AA+品种信用利差收窄50BP左右，7天回购利率整体上围绕公开市场操作利率2.2%附近窄幅波动。报告期内，组合资产配置以中高评级信用债为主，整体上保持中性偏积极的杠杆水平，根据市场情况调整组合久期和持仓，保持组合的流动性。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:39.219Z","mo":"基于经济运行驱动力角度看，2022年内生增长动能依然偏弱，托底经济依靠逆周期调节政策，消费和出口可能难以出现亮点，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