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年下半年半导体行业将延续上行周期，AI 大模型向端侧渗透推动AI PC、手机等终端渗透率提升，核心AI 芯片及存储产品需求高增，带动设备材料产能扩张，SEMI预测 2025-2026年全球半导体设备规模复合增速超10%；同时，美国技术封锁加剧国产替代紧迫性，大基金三期落地加码核心技术支持，半导体设备材料国产化进程加速，叠加行业并购重组活跃助力产业链整合，行业将在 AI需求、国产替代与资本赋能共振下，有望延续景气上行的趋势。当然，我们也应认识到，无论是宽基指数还是细分行业指数，准确预测其变化的幅度、速率以及时间窗口始终存在较大挑战，面对市场的不确定性，一套以概率思维为指导的投资框架和应对方法，往往比依赖单一结果的押注式预测更加有效，也更有可能带来良好的投资体验。因此，我们鼓励投资者一方面以更长期的视角进行基金配置，更多考虑业绩与估值的匹配程度以及收益风险比，同时另一方面在投资时机以及投资品种上进行适度分散化，以更好的对冲风险，力争实现收益的长期积累，并更充分地发挥复利效应。","fund":{"_id":3000000021532,"__csrcFundId":14048,"stockCode":"021532","masterFundShortName":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数发起","fundSecondLevel":"company","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":21532,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数发起(021532)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T17:13:01.381Z","name":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数型发起式证券投资基金","pinyin":"thzzbdtclsbztzsxfqszqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"setUpAssetScale":5151163.6,"setUpDate":"2024-06-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":5151163.6,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-06T16:00:00.000Z","__indexSourceCsi":1,"__indexSourceEastMoney":1,"followedNum":0,"indexFundFlag":1,"indexId":1000000931743,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020400","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81308255920,"name":"洪明华"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数型发起式证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1340826","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed39a7fea5b3eb053f68f","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000021532,"sao":"报告期内本基金秉承合规第一、风控第一的原则，在运作过程中严格遵守基金合同，对指数基金采取被动复制策略跟踪指数，完全复制指数，追求基金净值增长率与基准指数间的高度正相关和跟踪误差最小化。报告期内，本基金跟踪误差和超额收益的来源主要是申购赎回导致的仓位偏离、标的指数样本股调整导致的结构偏离和打新三方面因素。当由于申赎、成分股停牌或新股锁定等情况可能对指数跟踪效果带来影响时，本基金坚持既定的指数化投资策略，对指数基金采取被动复制与基于风险控制的组合优化相结合的方式跟踪指数。报告期内，本基金整体运行平稳。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:05:14.091Z","fund":{"_id":3000000021532,"__csrcFundId":14048,"stockCode":"021532","masterFundShortName":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数发起","fundSecondLevel":"company","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":21532,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数发起(021532)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T17:13:01.381Z","name":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数型发起式证券投资基金","pinyin":"thzzbdtclsbztzsxfqszqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"setUpAssetScale":5151163.6,"setUpDate":"2024-06-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":5151163.6,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-06T16:00:00.000Z","__indexSourceCsi":1,"__indexSourceEastMoney":1,"followedNum":0,"indexFundFlag":1,"indexId":1000000931743,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020400","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81308255920,"name":"洪明华"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数型发起式证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1270069","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed39a7fea5b3eb053f68e","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000021532,"sao":"报告期内本基金秉承合规第一、风控第一的原则，在运作过程中严格遵守基金合同，对指数基金采取被动复制策略跟踪指数，完全复制指数，力争基金净值增长率与基准指数间的高度正相关和跟踪误差最小化。报告期内，本基金跟踪误差和超额收益的来源主要是申购赎回导致的仓位和结构偏离、标的指数样本股调整导致的结构偏离、成分股分红和打新收益四方面因素。当由于申赎、成分股停牌或新股锁定等情况可能对指数跟踪效果带来影响时，本基金坚持既定的指数化投资策略，对指数基金采取被动复制与基于风险控制的组合优化相结合的方式跟踪指数。报告期内，本基金整体运行平稳。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:05:14.088Z","mo":"2024 年中国经济总体呈V型走势，万得数据显示，四个季度GDP同比增速分别为5.3%、4.7%、4.6%和5.4%，全年GDP同比增速为5.0%。结构上，三驾马车呈现显著分化：出口引擎超预期发力，投资维持托底作用，消费复苏动能仍显不足。出口表现超预期，2024年中国出口规模达到25.45万亿元，同比增长7.1%，同时产品结构优化升级，高科技产品增速较高，如集成电路出口同比增长17.4%，一举成为出口额最高的单一商品。投资相对稳定，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.2%，其中基建投资同比增速为9.19%，中央与地方投资分化明显；制造业投资同比增速9.2%，仍有一定韧性；航空航天设备和电子设备制造等高端领域持续领跑。消费整体较为低迷，居民消费受到当期收入增速放缓和收入及就业预期不稳、预防性储蓄动机较强等影响，居民人均消费支出累计实际同比增速降至5.10%。股票市场方面，2024年A股市场波动较大，整体呈现出W型的走势。具体赛道中，金融赛道和科技赛道表现较为亮眼；具体行业中，银行、非银金融等金融行业受益政策和高股息涨幅居前，通信、电子和计算机等科技行业受益AI涨幅靠前；具体风格中，价值风格领先成长风格，大盘风格也大幅跑赢小盘风格。展望2025年，中国有望通过一系列政策措施，推动经济高质量发展。出口方面，受高基数和潜在关税影响，出口增速预计有所回落，但也存在结构性机遇，比如半导体、船舶、新三样等重点商品出口有望保持良好表现。消费方面，消费品“以旧换新”等政策继续发力，有望提振居民消费需求，同时股票和房地产市场回暖，助力居民和企业资产负债表好转，也有望拉动微观主体的消费能力和意愿。投资方面，随着五年12 万亿的化债，地方基建投资增速回升，另外随着房地产市场止跌回稳，房地产投资也有望好转。股票方面，国际政治变动可能会对市场产生影响，但受益于政策红利的持续释放、增量资金的入市和经济基本面的改善，市场有望进一步企稳回升。政策方面，货币和财政双宽松格局有望维持，后续有望进一步降息降准，财政赤字率提高后惠民生、促消费等各项财政支出也有望顺利实施；资金方面，在近期推动中长期资金入市的多项政策下，险资和养老资金有望加大A股配置，带来客观的增量资金；基本面方面，随着前期各项政策逐步落地，新质生产力稳步发展，经济基本面有望迎来持续改善。从大势来看，全A整体估值水平不高，积极影响因素较多，市场下行风险不大，2025年市场有望进一步企稳回升，对全年保持乐观。具体行业赛道方面，一方面半导体当前处于新一轮上行周期，复苏态势持续向好。2024年同比增速超过18%，多家权威机构预测2025年同比增速有望超过10%。随着AI大模型逐步从云侧普及至端侧，AI PC、AI手机、AIoT以及AI玩具等渗透率有望快速提升，其中的核心AI芯片有望维持高增长，推动半导体行业保持高景气度。这将带动产能扩张，半导体上游材料和设备有望跟随受益。据SEMI预测，2025-2026年全球半导体设备规模复合增速有望超过10%。另一方面，国产替代正在驱动材料设备需求的增长：2024年12月2日，美国将多家中国半导体企业列入实体清单，其中包括部分代工厂及设备厂商，半导体设备及零部件产业链国产替代紧迫性进一步提升。同时，大基金三期落地，有望加大对核心技术和关键零部件的支持力度。此外，并购重组活动也将助力半导体相关公司进一步快速做大做强，增强中国半导体产业在国际竞争中的实力。本基金将持续跟踪芯片国产化进程及相关设备材料企业业绩兑现情况，并密切关注技术迭代和下游应用行业景气度对芯片需求和板块景气度的边际影响。本基金为被动指数基金，我们将通过严谨的投资管理流程和精细的数量化模型，以及勤勉尽责的工作态度，恪守指数化投资的宗旨，力求实现对标的指数的有效跟踪，为持有人提供与基准相近的收益。投资者可以根据自身对证券市场的判断及投资风格，借助投资本基金参与市场。","fund":{"_id":3000000021532,"__csrcFundId":14048,"stockCode":"021532","masterFundShortName":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数发起","fundSecondLevel":"company","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":21532,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数发起(021532)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T17:13:01.381Z","name":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数型发起式证券投资基金","pinyin":"thzzbdtclsbztzsxfqszqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"setUpAssetScale":5151163.6,"setUpDate":"2024-06-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":5151163.6,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-06T16:00:00.000Z","__indexSourceCsi":1,"__indexSourceEastMoney":1,"followedNum":0,"indexFundFlag":1,"indexId":1000000931743,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020400","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81308255920,"name":"洪明华"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数型发起式证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1252351","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed39a7fea5b3eb053f68d","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000021532,"sao":"报告期内本基金秉承合规第一、风控第一的原则，在运作过程中严格遵守基金合同，对指数基金采取被动复制策略跟踪指数，完全复制指数，力争基金净值增长率与基准指数间的高度正相关和跟踪误差最小化。报告期内，本基金跟踪误差和超额收益的来源主要是申购赎回导致的仓位偏离和成分股分红两方面因素。本基金坚持既定的指数化投资策略，对指数基金采取被动复制与基于风险控制的组合优化相结合的方式跟踪指数。报告期内，本基金整体运行平稳。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:05:14.085Z","fund":{"_id":3000000021532,"__csrcFundId":14048,"stockCode":"021532","masterFundShortName":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数发起","fundSecondLevel":"company","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":21532,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数发起(021532)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T17:13:01.381Z","name":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数型发起式证券投资基金","pinyin":"thzzbdtclsbztzsxfqszqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"setUpAssetScale":5151163.6,"setUpDate":"2024-06-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":5151163.6,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-06T16:00:00.000Z","__indexSourceCsi":1,"__indexSourceEastMoney":1,"followedNum":0,"indexFundFlag":1,"indexId":1000000931743,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020400","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81308255920,"name":"洪明华"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘中证半导体材料设备主题指数型发起式证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1173110","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}