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“对等关税”政策可能落地，交易逻辑或重归基本面，同时为对冲关税对基本面的冲击，二季度降准落地的可能性较大，央行重启买债也存在一定的博弈空间，债券收益率回升后配置价值亦有所凸显，报告期内强化组合的灵活性，把握波段机会。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:05:07.884Z","mo":"上半年经济金融数据呈现温和修复态势，6月经济数据总体动能仍然偏强，与PMI、社融、出口等数据相互印证。由于国补6月暂时空档期，社零增速不及预期；出口支撑生产数据偏强，工增回升；投资端增速回落较为明显。往前看，三季度经济数据有一定下行压力，但总体保持平稳。由于前期“抢出口”对外需•形成透支，出口和生产可能有所回落，下半年国补继续下达，预计对消费增速维持一定韧性。投资方面，基建预计继续发挥对经济托底作用。政策层面，“反内卷”政策推动下的商品价格上涨、债券市场税制改革叠加风险偏好提升令债券市场承压，纯债基金累计收益偏低令交易结构呈现脆弱性。三季度债券市场或面临颠簸期，收益率虽有一定程度回调，但向下修复空间仍需政策助推，若债券市场调整加剧，央行或再次重启买债，同时三四季度迎来“反内卷”效果验证期，关注CPI和PPI的走势变化，利率债波段操作难度提高，机会多来自超跌反弹。","fund":{"_id":3000000021449,"__csrcFundId":14011,"stockCode":"021449","masterFundShortName":"鑫元启丰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":21449,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"鑫元启丰债券(021449)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T03:12:04.058Z","name":"鑫元启丰债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050860000,"pinyin":"xyqfzqxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":7995417135.75,"setUpDate":"2024-06-05T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":7995417135.75,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-06T16:00:00.000Z","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20351331","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2524162650,"name":"颜昕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"鑫元启丰债券型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1348845","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3937fea5b3eb053f2d1","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000021449,"sao":"宏观方面，一季度经济指标全面回升，工业生产扩张加速，消费需求稳步回暖，财政发力靠前助推制造业投资维持高增，地产投资降幅收窄。受关税加征预期影响，抢出口现象有所凸显。从结构看，生产好于需求，内需好于外需，供需矛盾依然突出，通胀数据依然偏弱，经济修复仍有反复。　　债券市场经历三阶段调整：春节前央行暂停国债买入，同时收紧流动性推升短端利率，市场对于“适度宽松”的货币政策理解有所纠偏；节后银行负债压力抬头，两会定调财政政策积极，经济“开门红”数据提振权益市场风险偏好，叠加科技主题催化，股债资金分流效应显著；3月下旬央行改革mlf招投标规则，对资金面有所修复，收益率小幅回落，10年期国债收益率从1.60%最高上行至1.90%，1年期国债收益率由1.02%升至1.59%，期限利差收窄至28BP。银行、保险等配置盘在利率低位阶段趋于谨慎，交易盘主导市场波段操作，加剧收益率波动。中短久期利率债因流动性压力调整明显，而超长端品种在“资产荒”背景下表现相对稳健，但在资金利率持续高位下，机构抱团超长期品种的现象也有所瓦解。　　操作上，春节后组合久期有所降低，策略上趋于防守，但考虑到4月 “对等关税”政策可能落地，交易逻辑或重归基本面，同时为对冲关税对基本面的冲击，二季度降准落地的可能性较大，央行重启买债也存在一定的博弈空间，关注市场风险偏好的变化。债券收益率回升后配置价值亦有所凸显，强化组合的灵活性，把握波段机会。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:05:07.882Z","fund":{"_id":3000000021449,"__csrcFundId":14011,"stockCode":"021449","masterFundShortName":"鑫元启丰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":21449,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"鑫元启丰债券(021449)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T03:12:04.058Z","name":"鑫元启丰债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050860000,"pinyin":"xyqfzqxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":7995417135.75,"setUpDate":"2024-06-05T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":7995417135.75,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-06T16:00:00.000Z","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20351331","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2524162650,"name":"颜昕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"鑫元启丰债券型证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1275958","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3937fea5b3eb053f2d0","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000021449,"sao":"2024年货币政策两度降息和降准，坚持支持性立场。从资金面来看，公开市场7天逆回购利率从1.8%降至1.5%，DR007基本保持在政策利率之上25bp以内波动，存款手工补息规范后非银流动性提升，流动性分层一度消失，下半年央行新增了买断式回购及国债买卖等工具，维护市场流动性；财政在9月底之后更为积极，受各项经济政策持续推出刺激，经济数据在四季度出现企稳，2024年全国GDP同比实现5%增速，全年社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.5%，通胀数据全年维持低位。债券市场受益于宽松的货币环境及旺盛的配置需求全面走牛，各期限国债收益率普遍下行约90-110bps，多数期限收益率下行至历史低位。信用债整体收益率下行幅度略小于利率债。　　报告期内，本基金根据市场情况，灵活调整杠杆久期，纯利率债策略，实现了净值的稳步增长。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:05:07.879Z","mo":"展望2025年，在海外不确定性增大的背景下，外需存在较大的下行风险，内需将是支撑经济的重点，12月中央经济会议也提出了促进消费、加大财政支出力度、促进两新、两重等。从经济周期来看，2024年制造业库存周期回升，但经济下行压力仍然较大，主要受房地产周期下行拖累。在人口老龄化加剧、居民杠杆率偏高的背景下，明年房地产市场仍然面临较大的不确定性，预计仍将处于筑底阶段。总体而言，2025年经济下行拖累关注出口及地产，支撑主要体现为政策支持的消费和基建行业，通胀也处于较低位置，经济仍然在走向复苏的过程中。2024年底债市出现明显的抢跑行情，利率下行幅度已包含部分降息预期，随着明年赤字率的提高，债券供给压力有所提升，债券波动将有所放大，但随着社会融资成本的回落，债券利率中枢仍有下行空间。　　后续将保持对经济、政策、持仓标的等密切跟踪，适时调整组合杠杆、久期及持仓品类。","fund":{"_id":3000000021449,"__csrcFundId":14011,"stockCode":"021449","masterFundShortName":"鑫元启丰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":21449,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"鑫元启丰债券(021449)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T03:12:04.058Z","name":"鑫元启丰债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050860000,"pinyin":"xyqfzqxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":7995417135.75,"setUpDate":"2024-06-05T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":7995417135.75,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-06T16:00:00.000Z","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20351331","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2524162650,"name":"颜昕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"鑫元启丰债券型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1256038","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3937fea5b3eb053f2cf","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000021449,"sao":"2024年三季度，利率债收益率中枢震荡走低，7月在央行降息政策呵护下收益率下行，8-9月随着央行进行债券买卖和政治局会议提升经济复苏预期，债券收益率有所震荡。整体而言，上半年在政府债券供给偏慢格局下，资产荒演绎较为极致，各期限收益率快速下行，长端利率品种表现亮眼，曲线走平。三季度随着手工补息整改政策的影响消退，资产荒格局有所改观，信用债买盘力量下降，信用利差有所反弹。利率债方面，基本面依然偏弱，实际情况没有较大改善， 但在政策呵护下，市场预期有所变化，从而带动了三季度利率债市场的一次较大的波动，后续随着政策冲击的消退，收益率又逐步回落，季度来看， 利率债收益率中枢整体依然下行。　　基本面方面，三四季度地产投资和销售难以持续性恢复，消费继续复苏力度不足，制造业投资是内需方面最大支撑，但也受到产能利用率和PPI负增影响，持续性堪忧，外需依然是经济增长的重要引擎。从PMI等数据看，上半年3月有一轮高点外，整体PMI都在较低位置运行。展望后续，继续重点关注新增政府债券的发行进度，政策重在托底，基本面的复苏需要一定耐心。外部环境依然略利多于债券，美联储降息概率增大，外需有不确定性，可能对债券市场形成新的助力。　　策略上，在三季度降准降息后，四季度依然有降准预期，随着货币和财政政策的推出，基本面的预期有所改善，但实际改善依然需要逐月数据跟踪，并且在没有地产和出口强劲推动下，基本面复苏的节奏可能比较温和，预计债市维持震荡偏多头的行情，出现持续大幅调整的可能性不高，建议维持中性偏多的久期。　　报告期内，本基金根据负债端变化和市场波动进行久期精细化管理，紧密跟踪曲线结构变化，及时挖掘曲线上价值标的，提高升净值表现。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:05:07.876Z","fund":{"_id":3000000021449,"__csrcFundId":14011,"stockCode":"021449","masterFundShortName":"鑫元启丰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":21449,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"鑫元启丰债券(021449)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T03:12:04.058Z","name":"鑫元启丰债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050860000,"pinyin":"xyqfzqxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":7995417135.75,"setUpDate":"2024-06-05T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":7995417135.75,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-06T16:00:00.000Z","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20351331","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2524162650,"name":"颜昕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"鑫元启丰债券型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1176859","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}