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.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013585,"sao":"三季度利率债市场表现不佳，收益率持续回调，风偏走强和公募费率改革导致的基金负债端冲击是压制债市的主要因素。曲线较二季度末陡峭化上行5-30bp，超长估值回到去年924的水平。回顾三季度组合的操作，7-8月以波段思路为主，整体仓位和久期围绕中性水平上下波动。虽然期间权益表现非常强劲，但我们认为对利率债的影响更多是情绪扰动，判断利率呈现震荡走势的概率大。原因在于，一方面政策周期层面央行态度非常友好，多次提前续作买断式回购且有降价，资金利率创年内新低且波动率非常低。另一方面，行为周期层面并没有观察到明显的资金外流迹象，同时以大行、保险为代表的配置盘在三季度有明显发力。但实际风偏对债市的影响比预期得要大，因此组合在这一阶段承受了一定的回撤。进入9月，组合系统性地降低了仓位，触发因素是行为周期的明显转弱。一方面，观察到债券市场赚钱效应持续疲弱的情况下，资金有表外回流表内的趋势，且这一趋势被公募费率改革放大。同时一级情绪走弱，发飞带动二级上行成为常态，二者共振带动利率急速上行。期间组合久期较低，且持仓多以国债品种为主，因此回撤幅度较为可控。展望四季度，债券市场可能会由行为周期定价向宏观周期定价切换。今年前三季度国内基本面展现了很强的韧性，尤其出口链的强势给了资本市场极大的信心提振。但目前来看内需的基础仍然不牢固，尤其是国补对于消费的拉动作用也在下降，叠加去年的高基数影响，内需仍然面临读数下滑的风险，同时房地产市场仍然处于高换手的跌价状态。考虑到提振内需仍是政策主线，因此四季度债券市场可能存在交易降息的机会。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:50:33.702Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013585,"__csrcFundId":10032,"stockCode":"013585","shortName":"天弘齐享债券发起(013585)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13585,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:51:01.695Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"天弘齐享债券发起","setUpDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001170,"setUpShares":5001170,"pinyin":"thqxzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"},{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1373848","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0297fea5b3eb05088b4","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013585,"sao":"一季度利率债市场经历了比较明显的调整，这主要来自于央行态度的转变，以及对应的市场对于货币政策预期的纠偏，利率曲线较年初平坦化上行10-40BP。回顾一季度组合的操作，年初我们观察到央行态度的边际变化，但不确定持续时间有多长，因此我们将部分仓位从短端切换到对资金面更为钝化的长端品种上，为组合避免了一些损失。两会之后，银行间流动性如预期好转，但长端却在降息预期纠偏下迎来了非常迅速的补跌行情。在这个过程中，对长端进行了一定的减仓，但仍然承受了一些回撤。3月中旬我们结合央行操作和微观机构行为判断债市即将迎来反弹，因此又对前期下跌较多的品种进行了加仓，把握住了下旬的修复行情。二季度利率债行情整体表现不错，但交易难度很大。利率在4月初快速下行，随后在极窄的范围内震荡盘整，曲线较一季度末整体下行15-20BP。回顾二季度组合的操作，3月下旬我们判断央行阶段性恢复中性操作，市场的主要矛盾将切换至银行负债端改善和非银机构的资产荒，因此将组合仓位提升至较高水平，在4月初的大幅下行过程中取得了较好的业绩表现。5月初货币政策发力后，市场的仓位阶段性偏高，情绪演绎出利多出尽，因此将部分仓位落袋为安。5月末伴随中美第二轮谈判的正式落地，外部不确定解除，更重要的是内需压力逐步显现，因此在市场震荡过程中小幅加仓参与博弈。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:50:33.699Z","mo":"展望三季度，市场比较关注的是政策定调。但对比去年924前夕，当前经济数据仍有韧性，完成全年经济目标的压力不大，汇率和权益市场的情绪也和去年截然不同，因此政策发力的窗口大概率会延后，股债跷跷板效应也不会像去年那么顺畅。宏观和政策周期的变化有限，那么行情的关键还是在于短端的胜率和赔率。也就是说，央行态度的波动性将是市场利率波动性的主要来源。而其他能带来波动率的因素，如机构行为周期，和2024年有较大的不同，银行表内资产负债倒挂的情况更为严重。因此下半年更有可能的情景是：一方面，传统银行表内配置盘的主动择时投资行为增加，即配置盘交易化；而另一方面，传统交易盘如基金将会降低换手率，券商更多参与正套策略，银行理财、保险等负债稳定的机构更愿意参与相对利差策略，总结而言就是交易盘配置化。组合操作上中短端以持有为主，长端可以根据仓位和情绪周期的变化来把握波段机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000013585,"__csrcFundId":10032,"stockCode":"013585","shortName":"天弘齐享债券发起(013585)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13585,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:51:01.695Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"天弘齐享债券发起","setUpDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001170,"setUpShares":5001170,"pinyin":"thqxzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"},{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1340717","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0297fea5b3eb05088b3","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013585,"sao":"年初以来，利率债市场经历了比较明显的调整，这主要来自于央行态度的转变，以及对应的市场对于货币政策预期的纠偏，利率曲线较年初平坦化上行10-40bp。回顾一季度组合的操作，年初我们观察到央行态度的边际变化，但不确定持续时间有多长，因此我们将部分仓位从短端切换到对资金面更为钝化的长端品种上，为组合避免了一些损失。两会之后，银行间流动性如预期好转，但长端却在降息预期纠偏下迎来了非常迅速的补跌行情。在这个过程中，对长端进行了一定的减仓，但仍然承受了一些回撤。3月中旬我们结合央行操作和微观机构行为判断债市即将迎来反弹，因此又对前期下跌较多的品种进行了加仓，把握住了下旬的修复行情。展望二季度，我们认为市场对于央行态度的交易将告一段落，主要矛盾将切换至基本面和外围市场。整体上看，无论是内需还是外围，我们都还是面临着比较大的压力，年初以来较为乐观的市场预期将在二季度面临考验。因此对债市而言，应该是机会大于风险。组合操作上可以积极把握一些波段机会。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:50:33.697Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013585,"__csrcFundId":10032,"stockCode":"013585","shortName":"天弘齐享债券发起(013585)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13585,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:51:01.695Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"天弘齐享债券发起","setUpDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001170,"se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:"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"},{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1145846","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0297fea5b3eb05088af","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013585,"sao":"2024年一季度，1-2月保持了较高的久期和杠杆，以应对市场的趋势交易特征，3月震荡行情中以不高的仓位进行着波段操作。1-2月，30y国债出现了极其顺滑下行行情，这种行情从机构行为上去解释是保险配置盘和基金交易盘同时很强的状态，和2023年的二季度有类似的情况，一方面有保险欠配的逻辑，另一方面也有基金作为趋势交易的力量趋势，而从驱动因素来说，存款利率下调是核心因素。3月，我们观察到30y国债出现了非常拥挤的状态，由于人民币贬值预期和特别国债的供给预期存在，市场出现了波动调整，而经过一个月左右时间的盘整，市场已经进入调整尾声行情。未来一段时间，债市最关键的三个变量是：短端利率定价+仓位+情绪，目前短端利率的定价将进入非银定价的阶段，银行体系的流动性是足够充裕的，但是资金利率中枢受到贬值预期影响下行难度比较大，因此重点关注长端和超长端的交易计划，而目前市场趋势交易仓位是偏低的，对二季度的交易机会比较乐观。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:50:33.686Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013585,"__csrcFundId":10032,"stockCode":"013585","shortName":"天弘齐享债券发起(013585)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13585,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:51:01.695Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"天弘齐享债券发起","setUpDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001170,"setUpShares":5001170,"pinyin":"thqxzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"},{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1069961","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0297fea5b3eb05088ae","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013585,"sao":"回头看2023年，债券市场的绝对收益进一步下台阶，利率品的票息收入极低，年内央行的几次降息把债券整体的相对价值提升了一些，不过市场的预期交易变化极快，通过获取资本利得的交易难度极大提升。我们在2023年依然重视对交易赔率的计算。在3月初，我们适度提高了组合久期，在8月中旬降低了久期，在11月底提高了组合久期，这三次重要的战术操作为组合提供了较高的收益，并控制了三季度年内最大的回撤，这背后是我们对于市场状态的刻画之后，识别到市场的过冷、过热等状态，才能有针对性地去用仓位去应对行情的变化。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:50:33.682Z","mo":"站在2024年的起点上，随着2023年四季度债券市场的大幅下行之后，我们观察到目前的市场交易热度过高，债券市场对于风险偏好的定价较为充分，这是一段需要警惕的时间，而在警惕期之后，我们认为2024年在长期利率品种、超长期利率品种上会有比较不错的交易机会，交易机会触发的因素可能是在各类刺激政策出台之后带来的阶段性利率高点。","fund":{"_id":3000000013585,"__csrcFundId":10032,"stockCode":"013585","shortName":"天弘齐享债券发起(013585)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13585,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:51:01.695Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"天弘齐享债券发起","setUpDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001170,"setUpShares":5001170,"pinyin":"thqxzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"},{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1053746","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0297fea5b3eb05088ad","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013585,"sao":"三季度的核心行情在9月，9月出现了今年最大的一波回撤行情，债券各类品种整体回调，利率曲线熊平。市场参与者关心什么、看到什么，在资产价格上就会反映什么，而三季度市场最关心的问题在于资金利率中枢抬升，但很难精确计算资金利率中枢抬升的全部原因，可以参考的市场关注热度最高的归因是两点：一是央行可能在汇率市场维稳，二是利率债一级供给增加，最后导致的结果就是短端利率的抬升，从而导致收益率曲线整体抬升。在操作层面，我们在8月下旬观察到市场的拥挤程度过高，果断减仓、降低组合久期至防守状态，帮助组合较好控制了回撤。站在三季度末去展望未来，债券市场有较大的概率赚取资本利得的空间，一方面是基于短端利率去计算目前市场做多的赔率极高，同时在机构行为上可能有更大的机会。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:50:33.679Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013585,"__csrcFundId":10032,"stockCode":"013585","shortName":"天弘齐享债券发起(013585)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13585,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:51:01.695Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"天弘齐享债券发起","setUpDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001170,"setUpShares":5001170,"pinyin":"thqxzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"},{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=987704","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_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时永煤事件后仓位较低，收益率11月中旬后开始快速下行。但在2-3月收益率出现了小幅反弹，其背后原因在于，宏观周期方面，上半年面临较大通胀压力，同时，疫情后我国经济恢复较好，地产保持了较好的韧性，出口增速大幅提升，导致宏观周期方面并不支持利率下行；在此环境下，2-3月央行阶段性的提升了资金面的波动性，回购利率大幅抬升，使得货币政策周期也处于阶段性利空债市的状态。在宏观和货币两方面皆利空债市环境下，如果用传统宏观利率框架，彼时该空仓或做空债券市场，但彼时我们的操作是逆势加仓，其背后的原因在于，从机构行为周期和仓位周期的角度，我们看到市场中出现了较强的配置力量，数据上保险公司净买入大幅提升，同时，配置盘为主力的国债一级市场情绪抬升明显，与此同时，非银仓位在宏观货币没有明显利多的状态下，仓位都比较轻，潜在空头较少，所以市场出现了短期做多的机会，该现象持续到2021年6月。6月中旬左右，由于我们观察到配置力量彼时开始减弱，所以彼时进行了阶段性的减仓。进入7月，央行超预期全面降准，货币政策周期开始切换成利多债券市场的状态，与此同时，机构行为周期从上半年配置盘主导的行情当中切换为以趋势交易盘为主导行情，在这种行情下，以基金为代表的非银成为市场变化的主要推手，而基金仓位和市场拥挤指标是当时跟踪市场主流行情的较好指标。而彼时市场在六月短暂回调后，基金仓位普遍较低，所以在仓位周期维度同样利多债券市场，所以市场进入快速下行状态。操作层面，在降准后组合加仓较为果断，享受了市场下行的大部分收益。8、9月后，宏观经济已经开始出现数据上的下滑，货币政策依然维持稳健宽松，宏观周期与货币周期两个较长维度的周期都开始利多债券市场，但是，随着非银机构普遍加仓，机构仓位在8月底附近到达较为拥挤的水平，仓位周期切换为利空债券市场，与此同时，下半年机构行为周期层面主导市场的另一条主线是固收+产品的大量发行，但9月中旬开始，转债市场迎来年内最大回调，固收+产品开始出现赎回，机构行为周期整体也利空债市，市场出现了短空长多的状态，导致彼时市场出现了以信用债为主跌的品种的回调。操作层面，我们阶段性的根据仓位周期的利空降低了投机仓位水平，但由于长周期角度依然利多债市，所以在市场调整期我们进行了进一步加仓，同时我们预判下一次机会来自年底机构行为周期的再次走强。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:50:33.659Z","mo":"对于2022年市场展望，当前宏观货币周期从中长期维度依然呵护债券市场，但市场结构已经开始较为拥挤，同时，当前较低的收益率水平也成为了2022年收益率继续下行的一大制约，收益率阶段性的处于上有顶下有底的震荡区间。所以在策略上2022年我们会进一步提升对波段交易的把握与票息策略。","fund":{"_id":3000000013585,"__csrcFundId":10032,"stockCode":"013585","shortName":"天弘齐享债券发起(013585)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13585,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:51:01.695Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"天弘齐享债券发起","setUpDate":"2021-09-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001170,"setUpShares":5001170,"pinyin":"thqxzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"},{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘齐享债券型发起式证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=714260","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}