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 目前我们关注重点包括:（一）聚焦具备壁垒的结构性领导者：我们优选在成本、规模或技术端具备明确护城河的行业龙头。这些公司在新能源电池、AI硬件制造及低成本原材料等领域建立领导地位，有望在周期波动中巩固并扩大竞争优势。(二)布局全球长期增长引擎：我们积极把握由两大确定性趋势驱动的机遇：全球能源转型催生的储能需求，以及科技迭代带来的AI基础设施资本开支。投资组合侧重相关供应链中的核心受益者。(三)把握本土市场的整合与拐点：我们关注中国本土市场中正在发生的积极变化：金融行业集中度提升利好头部券商与城商行，而监管环境趋稳则为优质游戏公司等题材的新产品周期创造了条件。这些领域存在估值重估的潜力。  本基金将继续坚持价值选股逻辑，重点关注估值合理、经营稳健、现金流健康且注重股东回报的企业，同时继续保持分散投资、均衡行业配置及低换手率的策略，以平衡收益与风险，致力为投资人带来具吸引力的风险调整后收益。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-30T13:35:38.389Z","mo":"在2026年的门槛上，我们对未来一年的展望概括为“审慎乐观”。乐观源于宏观环境正向着“金发女孩”(Goldilocks) 式的理想状态演进；审慎则源于当前资产价格已在一定程度上反映了较好的经济与盈利预期，且市场内部的估值分化达到了极致。在这样一个充满机遇但容错率降低的环境中，投资者需要的不再是盲目的贝塔追踪，而是需要透过选股发掘机会。  不同于以往的短期刺激，本轮政策更侧重于资本市场的制度性建设。“新国九条”的出台，明确了以投资者为本的导向，鼓励上市公司通过分红和回购提升股东回报。数据已经开始验证这一逻辑：中国上市企业的股息与回购规模显著提升，且企业净资产收益率在政策指引及“反内卷”背景下也出现回稳迹象。这种由公司治理改善驱动的估值修复，比单纯的流动性驱动更具可持续性。此外，随着中国无风险利率在维持宽松货币政策的背景中持续下行，债券市场的预期回报率已有所压缩，难以满足中国机构与零售投资者对于收益的需求。相比之下，A股市场的股息率优势，尤其是在新“国九条”出台后，正在浮现。对于追求收益的国内资金而言，股市正逐渐成为更有性价比的配置方向。我们观察到，资金正从债市流向股市，保险资金和理财资金对红利类资产的需求正在持续提升。这一趋势在2026年大概率将延续，为市场提供更稳定的底部支撑。  联博发现，在经济转型过程中，中国上市公司的特性也正在逐渐转变，相对不受宏观经济影响的结构性成长机会正在浮现。举例来说，中国科技企业的AI资本开支正在上行，且DeepSeek等模型的推出显示了中国在应用层具备充足创新动能，这将带来具体的盈利增长机会 。此外，中国出口结构也已发生质变，先进制造商品 (如高端电子设备、汽车等) 占全球出口比正在持续走升，显示中国正逐渐摆脱过往低附加价值出口的经济模式。换言之，尽管面临关税担忧，但具备全球竞争力的出海龙头依然具备穿越周期的能力。  然而，正如我们在发达市场所见，我们也注意到当前市场部分领域出现投机性倾向，致使A股估值出现显著分化 (即高估值公司相对低估值公司的估值差距)。鉴于A股市场仍是一个充满阿尔法机会的市场，我们认为，格外注重估值与质量的投资策略可望于2026年发挥，兼顾收益与风险。","fund":{"_id":3000000020842,"__csrcFundId":13738,"stockCode":"020842","masterFundShortName":"联博智选混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20842,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:46.688Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"联博智选混合A","name":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000071490000,"setUpAssetScale":259836911.45,"setUpDate":"2024-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":259836911.45,"inceptionDate":"2024-04-02T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"lbzxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801529727","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2612041800,"name":"朱良"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1449952","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3717fea5b3eb053d300","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020842,"sao":"2025年三季度，A股市场在多重利好推动下延续涨势，主要受益于以下四个关键因素：美联储降息预期提振市场流动性；中美贸易关系出现缓和迹象；人工智能等创新题材持续活跃；宏观经济数据显现企稳信号。这些因素的共同作用，推动市场实现了连续三个月的正收益，区间内中证800指数上涨19.83%。  展望后市，有鉴于股市估值已有所提升，且部分板块短期快速上涨后也浮现回撤可能，本基金继续保持分散投资、均衡行业配置及低换手率的策略，以平衡收益与风险。在选股上，我们重点关注估值合理、经营稳健、现金流健康且注重股东回报的企业，同时坚持“自下而上”的组合构建方法，对宏观因素保持中性应对。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:04:33.353Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020842,"__csrcFundId":13738,"stockCode":"020842","masterFundShortName":"联博智选混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20842,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:46.688Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"联博智选混合A","name":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000071490000,"setUpAssetScale":259836911.45,"setUpDate":"2024-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":259836911.45,"inceptionDate":"2024-04-02T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"lbzxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801529727","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2612041800,"name":"朱良"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1369406","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3717fea5b3eb053d2ff","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020842,"sao":"报告期间内中国主要股市上涨，主要反映中美贸易摩擦缓解、中国创新科研实力发酵，与中国经济数据优于预期等利多因子。中美贸易关系自4月以来持续好转，两国在伦敦同意了初步的贸易框架；这一发展符合联博长线观点，即中美两国完全贸易脱钩较难实现，预料两国仍将在竞争中发展新的合作模式。此外，中国6月份财新制造业PMI站上50.4扩张领域，显示贸易风险下行与年初以来一系列的刺激政策发力带动了经济活动有所回稳，且市场对于企业盈利的预估也持续维持乐观。在此一背景下，国内风险性资产于六月普遍上行。  本基金在市场风险情绪回温的背景下有所表现，尤其是本基金持有的高端制造题材、金融红利题材和医药题材。其中高端制造与医药题材反映了中国先进特有供应链与人才库在贸易摩擦下的韧性，而在国内利率环境走低的背景下，金融题材的红利特性价值浮现，股价有所表现。  本基金坚持价值型选股逻辑不漂移，聚焦现金流稳定且成长遭低估的价值型标的，同时关注ROE持续改善的高质量企业，以把握中国资本市场的长期结构性机会。而当前宏观经济转型与外部环境波动可能带来短期不确定性，但我们不依赖宏观预测，而是通过自下而上的选股逻辑，强调价值与收益潜力，力求构建兼具收益潜力与风险防御的投资组合。","declarationDate":"2025-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:04:33.350Z","mo":"随着中国经济从高速扩张阶段走向平稳发展阶段，且中国所面临的消费不振、通货紧缩与经济转型等挑战仍待解决，联博预期在可见的未来内国债利率或维持在相对低点，甚至有进一步走低可能。目前中国10年期国债利率约1.6%水准或无法满足部分投资人对于收益的需求。另一方面，股权市场在近期资本市场改革后，中国企业的分红水准正在持续改善，以沪深300指数来看其股利率已来到约3.5%左右。企业将账上现金转为分红，可望强化净资产收益率并提升估值，这除了代表股市的“可投资性”正在改善外，其对比债券的相对投资价值也显得更具吸引力；联博的研究显示，目前指数红利率相对债券收益率的差值已来到近期新高水平。  从资产配置层面来看，目前中国投资人持有股票与基金占家庭资产配置水平仅有约12%，与美国家庭平均约40% （含直接持有与间接持有）配置于股权市场有显著落差，我们预估此次结构改革与国内利率走低可能是重要催化剂，有望带动资金流往股市并支持股市表现。  此外，中国6月份财新制造业PMI站上50.4扩张领域，显示贸易风险下行与年初以来一系列的刺激政策发力带动了经济活动有所回稳，市场对于企业盈利的预估也持续维持乐观。考虑到 1) 财政与货币政策有望维持温和扩张，2) AI、先进制造等题材持续展现成长潜力，以及 3) 新国九条公布后企业净资产收益率维持稳定扩张循环，暗示从基本面来看股市仍有投资价值。  最后，即便A股近期有所表现使得投资人“居高思危”，但事实上在今年AI等科技需求依旧表现强劲的背景下，再加上贸易摩擦看似并未显著延缓美联储降息预期，全球各国股市普遍均有所表现：对比美国S&P 500 年初迄今上涨逾7%、MSCI 欧洲上涨约20%、MSCI 亚洲新兴市场上涨超16%，沪深300 指数年初迄今约4%、中证500约7.6%的涨幅其实相对温和。从估值来看亦然：目前沪深300指数的动态市盈率约12.5倍，其实与过去5年中位数约11.7倍左右相仿，远不及牛市时期15倍以上市盈率。考虑A股不论是成长性以及获利能力都有所改善，目前估值显得相对合适。最后，从资金流向来看亦然，目前国内股票型策略产品的募集金额仍处于历史偏低水准，暗示风险情绪仍未过热。  股市是一个将钱从没耐心的人转移到有耐心的人口袋里的机制。中国资本市场的结构性机会往往需要时间兑现，我们建议投资人保持耐心，以长期视角持有本基金，参与中国资本市场的长线机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000020842,"__csrcFundId":13738,"stockCode":"020842","masterFundShortName":"联博智选混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20842,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:46.688Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"联博智选混合A","name":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000071490000,"setUpAssetScale":259836911.45,"setUpDate":"2024-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":259836911.45,"inceptionDate":"2024-04-02T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"lbzxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801529727","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2612041800,"name":"朱良"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1338079","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3717fea5b3eb053d2fe","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020842,"sao":"2025年一季度A股市场较为震荡，经历了先抑后扬的走势，1月市场整体呈现震荡下跌态势，主要反映宏观经济数据的疲软以及外部环境的不确定性对市场情绪产生了负面影响。然而，2月后随着一系列政策利好的出台，包括降准、降息、支持科技创新和资本市场改革等措施，辅以DeepSeek相关创新带动市场信心逐渐恢复，股市在2月后普遍有所表现。本基金持续采取投资组合分散、行业配置均衡，以及低换手率的策略。我们将持续关注估值合理、经营稳健、现金流健康，并重视投资者回报的企业。同时也坚持“自下而上”的方法构造投资组合，对宏观因素进行中性化处理。","declarationDate":"2025-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:04:33.347Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020842,"__csrcFundId":13738,"stockCode":"020842","masterFundShortName":"联博智选混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20842,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:46.688Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"联博智选混合A","name":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000071490000,"setUpAssetScale":259836911.45,"setUpDate":"2024-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":259836911.45,"inceptionDate":"2024-04-02T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"lbzxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801529727","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2612041800,"name":"朱良"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1266581","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3717fea5b3eb053d2fd","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020842,"sao":"2024年A股市场经历了显著波动，最终实现了自2020年以来的首次年度上涨。上证综合指数全年上涨12.7%，沪深300指数上涨14.7%，中证800指数则上涨12.2%。  2024年初，A股市场出现显著回调，1月份市场跌幅较为剧烈，特别是小盘股，因为量化策略的波动，迭加市场对雪球产品集中敲入的担忧，加剧市场跌幅。  到了9月下旬，随着一系列政策支持措施出台（降息、房地产支持政策、利好股市政策等），市场情绪得到提振。经过9月下旬的强劲反弹后，市场于年末进入震荡整理期，而全年以上涨作收。  本基金成立初期超配：1、经营稳健、现金流健康的高股息企业；2、周期类工业板块，如大中型客车制造商、智能电表制造商、叉车制造商等“制造业出海”主题；3、自主消费类板块，如家电等。本基金建仓之后随着股价上涨，对部分估值已充分反映预期差的个股进行了调整，并加强了投资组合的分散度，来应对各类行业刺激政策出台而出现的市场热点分散的状况，但坚持回避那些基本面没有明显改善的估值陷阱。  2024下半年，我们认为部分“制造业出海”企业的估值不似原先建仓时那般具有吸引力，包括：机械设备板块中的工程机械制造商、汽车板块中的大型客车制造商、以及电力设备板块中的智能电表制造商等，因此进行了调整。但“红利板块”主题依然是本基金看好的投资方向，例如：交通运输板块当中的高速公路运营商、港口运营商等。  本基金持续采取投资组合分散、行业配置均衡，以及低换手率的策略。我们将持续关注估值合理、经营稳健、现金流健康，并重视投资者回报的企业，同时也坚持“自下而上”的方法构造投资组合，对宏观因素进行中性化处理。","declarationDate":"2025-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:04:33.345Z","mo":"展望2025年，我们对A股的看法保持乐观，主要理由如下：  首先，企业盈利有望复苏。在政策刺激的引导下，国内经济有望逐步回稳，带动上市企业的盈利复苏。目前市场共识预估，A股上市公司的盈利有望在2025年增长14%。在企业盈利增长的带动下，A股有望迎来好的表现。  再者，估值合理。目前A股的预估市盈率在全球主要股市当中依然是处于较低水平。目前预估市盈率只有大约13倍，而同样身为新兴市场的印度股市其预估市盈率几乎是A股的两倍，相较而言A股当前的估值在全球范围来看依然合理。  如果从市净率的角度来看，目前A股的预估市净率大约只有1.4倍左右。历史经验显示，2008年以来如果在A股市净率1.3到1.5倍的时候投资将有望获得正收益。  最后，国内的政策施展空间依然充裕，例如：面对特朗普可能对华采取的提高关税措施，可通过适当的汇率手段来降低高关税带来的负面影响。  此外，刺激消费也有着力空间。我国的民间消费占GDP比重低于多数发达市场及新兴市场，刺激消费的政策上有施展潜力。若相关政策持续出台，则有望为经济增长托底，并增强股市投资者信心。","fund":{"_id":3000000020842,"__csrcFundId":13738,"stockCode":"020842","masterFundShortName":"联博智选混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20842,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:46.688Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"联博智选混合A","name":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000071490000,"setUpAssetScale":259836911.45,"setUpDate":"2024-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":259836911.45,"inceptionDate":"2024-04-02T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"lbzxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801529727","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2612041800,"name":"朱良"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1245985","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3717fea5b3eb053d2fc","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020842,"sao":"2024年三季度A股历经了先跌后涨的走势，9月中旬前市场大致呈现下跌趋势，宏观经济数据持续疲软压抑着市场信心；此外，投资者一窝蜂涌入固收类产品也对股市产生资金排挤效应。不过，9月下旬政策利好不断推出，包括：降准、降息、放宽住房政策、支持股市流动性等，激励股市于9月份最后几个交易日大幅拉升。  本基金关注那些具有较强盈利潜力的股票，其中也包括那些有望从政策受益的公司。我们持续采取投资组合分散、行业配置相对基准保持低偏离度，以及低换手率的策略。本基金重视估值合理、经营稳健、现金流健康并重视投资者回报的企业。同时也坚持“自下而上”的方法构造投资组合，对宏观因素进行中性化处理。","declarationDate":"2024-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:04:33.341Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020842,"__csrcFundId":13738,"stockCode":"020842","masterFundShortName":"联博智选混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20842,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:46.688Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"联博智选混合A","name":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000071490000,"setUpAssetScale":259836911.45,"setUpDate":"2024-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":259836911.45,"inceptionDate":"2024-04-02T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"lbzxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801529727","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2612041800,"name":"朱良"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1169016","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3717fea5b3eb053d2fb","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020842,"sao":"本基金成立于2024年4月1日，2024年二季度A股历经了先涨后跌的震荡市，4月中旬新“国九条”发布后激励了市场信心；然而，随着国内宏观数据强弱参差、加上海外美元利率居高不下等因素导致股市陷入震荡，并伴随成交量萎缩。  本基金将持续坚持以价值投资策略稳健运作，关注经营稳健、现金流健康、重视投资者回报的企业，持续保持出口优势的企业，以及自主消费类板块。与此同时，本基金将继续坚持自下而上的方法构造投资组合，并对宏观因素进行中性化处理，保持投资组合的分散度，以应对市场热点分散的状况。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:04:33.338Z","mo":"虽然市场短期震荡，但我们看好A股后市的立场不变，主要理由是：(1) 市场情绪见底、(2) 估值水平偏低、(3) 改革政策发力。  首先，市场情绪通常会领先宏观基本面率先见底，历史经验显示，市场情绪见底后A股的投资胜率有望提高。  其次，估值偏低虽不保证市场立刻反弹，但对于预判股市中长期的走势还是有一定的参考性。根据历史经验，当估值被严重低估时，虽然无法预测股市的短期回报，但时间稍微拉长来看，投资胜率预计将提高。  再者，我们认为新“国九条”的发布预示着A股市场的新变化。2004年发布的“国九条”基本塑造了现代A股市场，2014年发布的“国九条”引发了新兴成长公司的IPO热潮。最新发布的“国九条”，监管机构的关注重点更加贴近成熟市场，旨在提升上市公司质量，推进上市公司治理结构的制度性改革，不断强化、细化上市公司对投资者回报的责任与义务。从周边市场类似政策推出所取得的成功经验来看，我们认为这将成为提升中国股市长期可投资性的关键因素。  最后，从投资策略来看，“外循环”与“内循环”将同样重要。我们从全球资本市场的发展路径也学习到，“外循环”与“内循环”并进的经验也曾出现在日本1990年代房地产调整期。日本股市在1995-2013年期间，表现较好的板块大部份是以出口为主导，包括：医疗设备与仪器、汽车与零部件、科技、耐用消费品与服饰等。  而目前海外市场的宏观环境也相当稳健，包括：美国经济仍相对强劲、甚至有经济过热的通胀问题(但通胀已改善)，欧洲经济也明显回升，日本也摆脱长期的通货紧缩。更重要的是，全球制造业的去库存周期似乎已经结束，目前正处于回补库存的复苏阶段，这对我国的制造业，特别是以出口为导向的上市企业无疑是个强心针。","fund":{"_id":3000000020842,"__csrcFundId":13738,"stockCode":"020842","masterFundShortName":"联博智选混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20842,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:46.688Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"联博智选混合A","name":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000071490000,"setUpAssetScale":259836911.45,"setUpDate":"2024-03-31T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":259836911.45,"inceptionDate":"2024-04-02T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"lbzxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801529727","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2612041800,"name":"朱良"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"联博智选混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1141283","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}