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二季度利率市场整体呈现出震荡下行叠加大幅波动的态势， 4月23日前由于禁止手工补息高息揽储后，资产荒逻辑进一步强化，延续前期下行趋势。其后央行提示长期限及超长期限利率风险，现券出现剧烈调整，超长债上行20BP至约2.61%触顶，随后直至季末利率保持震荡下行态势。二季度的下行重要的推动变量为资金供给的持续充沛，既有债券供给阶段错位的影响，其背后展现出地缘变化、基本面弱势修复和监管政策对于流动性扩充的影响，最终强化了市场参与者的综合预期。总体看，各方因素导致的风险偏好显著下降，增量资金对于固定收益类资产的配置需求强烈，使得资产缺乏的趋势变化成为二季度内需要重点关注的变量。政策方面，央行在二季度重点提出“买卖国债”、提示长端利率风险、禁止手工补息、淡化对金融总量指标的关注、货币政策框架调整。三季度债券收益率整体呈现震荡下行趋势，且波动幅度较大。整体来看，三季度债券市场收益率下行的主要因素包括流动性宽松、宏观经济数据不及预期以及负债成本下降等，期间曲线整体利率创下新低。震荡调整的因素主要有监管行为、央行对收益率指导、大型银行集中卖出国债和重要会议等。主要以8月上旬和9月下旬两次上行调整较为显著。其中8月上旬受大型商业银行集中卖出长端国债影响，10年国债收益率上行超10BP。9月下旬受重要会议释放经济刺激政策影响，风险偏好短期反弹波动较大，曲线收益率上行约20-25BP。信用债方面延续了上半年的压缩态势，信用利差明显下降在三季度达到最低点，三季度后半段信用利差逐步走阔。组合操作层面，三季度内东兴兴诚积极预判资金利率波动情况，合理摆布回购期限，稳健获取了息差收益。后续根据对于市场把握，灵活补充部分资产。四季度债券市场整体呈现震荡修复和趋势下行结合的态势。九月底在政治局会议部署下，增量宏观政策接续发布，经济刺激预期加码，国内权益市场出现强势反弹，债券收益率曲线整体上行20-25BP。10月初财政和化债政策陆续出台，政策力度符合市场预期，债券收益率呈现震荡修复走势。11月上旬美国大选结果确定，股债市场基于国际贸易环境可能变化给予一定程度定价。12月上旬在中央政治局会议和中央经济工作会议定调实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强超常规逆周期调节，收益率曲线出现平移和陡峭化变化。四季度内主要关注财政政策、货币政策的基调变化与流动性边际变化，央行主要使用买断式回购和买卖国债，践行支持性立场，保持流动性充裕外部环境面临新的变化，从地缘、贸易和资本流动等多方面看具有不确定性。其他主要经济体层面关注主要国家新的政策变化，包括降息不确定性增加，强势美元下对于其他国家汇率和基础资产波动的影响。新的变化包括可能追求缓解债务压力避免低增长高债务，通过关税政策、削减支出和调节结构性因素实现通胀可控，回归财政盈余，保持私人经济需求稳定和国内资本市场新引力。组合操作层面，四季度内东兴兴诚处于成立后的建仓期，根据市场情况灵活调整，在11月份积极调整仓位积极把握了流动性边际变化的机会，积极持仓中短期限债券获取流动性宽松带来的溢价收益同时，根据收益率曲线形态变化灵活操作获取了较好的波段收益。结合当前的情况，积极使用中短久期债券底仓叠加波段交易，把握2025年上半年的波动机会和流动性交易窗口，择机在季度内灵活调整仓位把握布局机会获取收益。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:04:32.737Z","mo":"展望2025年，全年来看，大的格局股债均是宽幅震荡，股指近两年主要受市场情绪推动的估值修复，后续上行有赖于盈利变化和超预期政策，关注今年新质生产力企业盈利能否改善，带动风险偏好的进一步变抬升。预计全年股指呈现指数稳定，结构性行情为主，风格转换和风险偏好提升在一定时期对于债券还是会有扰动。对于债券市场有利之处是流动性的方向相较2024年明确，在中央定调适度宽松的大格局下，结合国债扩容央行相应买债行为在未来1-2年仍会持续并强化，相较其他国家央行历史同类时期操作，宽松政策具有较大空间，所以整体看2025年仍会具有较大的交易机会。不利之处是可以看到对于机构的博弈行为和估值水平的容忍度降低，如果遇到大行负债压力和净融出不稳定性增加，央行在流动性主动权更强，同时在利率趋势项下影响波动的约束因素也在强化，包括央行的指导行为影响下行预期、买卖国债节奏变化，甚至阶段性地考量汇率调节流动性。从组合角度如果要有效控制约束行为的影响实现盈利，核心需要结合机构行为和市场情绪，做好流动性预判和估值评估，注意止盈、逆向和左侧交易，以适应全年利率债市场高估值下高波动、低估值区域趋势强的特点，这也对于投资提出更高的要求，我们力争根据市场情况把握好交易，积极应对，以进取思维结合稳健获取更好的收益。对于2025年需要关注的风险因素，包括信用和通胀共振；流动性的变化情况，在既定的适度宽松口径下央行执行的节奏、幅度，尤其2025年在强美元大背景下汇率的考量也逐步增加，叠加外部压力不确定性，央行预期会积极主动调节市场。同样需要关注的还有政策预期脉冲发力，以全年视角看根据经济数据和外部因素影响逆周期调节。最后关于监管对于曲线的指导，我们认为需要仔细思考指导的背景和目的，衡量流动性方向和环境，辩证思考并衡量交易机会。 交易节奏上，2025年核心还是市场对于市场预期差和趋势主导因素的延伸，国内外地缘变化、财政政策预期和流动性宽松的反复。关注一季度对于财政政策规划和流动性的变化，三四月份市场会衡量增长情况，如果面临外部和增长压力，货币政策会加大力度，要积极把握流动性交易机会。时间节点上积极关注两会前期给出的交易机会，关注较平的收益率曲线上的优势区域。二季度可能会出现新的变化，增长压力显现，政策预期再起，存在流动性超预期宽松的可能性。风险方面待外部因素冲击定价之后，风险偏好可能修复、通胀改善以及货币政策进入以稳为主转为观察阶段。关注通胀和经济基本面企稳情况，新的财政政策落地后，市场比较关注宽信用和主要经济部门的改善情况。三季度开始关注连续的供给潜在冲击，此阶段如果出现经济数据好于预期或者风险偏好回升，在权衡当期矛盾因素可持续性后关注波段介入机会。整体思路，衡量中长期趋势的变化，根据市场节奏寻找波段交易机会。与去年一样，今年主要关注监管行为和政策影响；而机会则来自市场超调，尤其是当弱预期与弱现实收敛时可能的政策冲击机会以及年内海外经济快速下滑带来明显外需冲击的阶段，组合介入的资产收益率最好从定价上处于一定安全边际。以收益率曲线上优势品种作为稳健进取的方向，具有流动性溢价，积极操作重点关注市场超调可能带来的趋势仓位和波段机会。结合当前的情况，逢调整积极使用短期限底仓信用债资产叠加存单、利率增强交易，把握2025年上半年的波动机会和期间流动性交易窗口，择机灵活调整仓位把握布局机会获取收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000020833,"__csrcFundId":14217,"stockCode":"020833","masterFundShortName":"东兴兴诚利率债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20833,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"东兴兴诚利率债(020833)","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:57:21.789Z","name":"东兴兴诚利率债债券型证券投资基金","pinyin":"dxxcllzzqxzqtzjj","fundCollectionId":4000051940000,"setUpAssetScale":7991022133.77,"setUpDate":"2024-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":7991022133.77,"inceptionDate":"2024-09-12T16:00:00.000Z","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020360","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":603258330,"name":"冯晨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东兴兴诚利率债债券型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1246110","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}