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再度走强影响，10Y国债收益率回调至1.83%附近。月末美伊冲突爆发，避险情绪快速升温，推动10Y国债收益率下行至 1.78%以下。全月短端资产收益率整体保持低波状态运行，1Y国股存单收益率小幅下行1bp至1.59%。3月，美伊冲突持续升级，国际原油价格快速攀升至100美元/桶以上，市场逐步定价通胀预期，长端债券走势偏弱，10Y国债收益率波动上行至1.82%附近。同期银行间流动性维持充裕格局，资金利率低位低波动运行，全月DR001在1.31%附近窄幅波动，叠加非银同业存款利率自律消息释放，共同推动短端资产的收益率震荡下行，1Y国股存单收益率由1.57%下行至1.51%，1Y国债收益率由1.31%下行至1.22%，全月债券收益率曲线走陡。操作上，本基金坚持组合的风险收益特征，延续稳健的操作思路，根据市场变化灵活运用杠杆和久期策略，主要配置短久期、中高等级品种，在严控组合信用风险和流动性风险的前提下为持有人获取稳定回报，实现组合净值稳步增长。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T15:41:57.433Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020399,"__csrcFundId":13643,"stockCode":"020399","masterFundShortName":"国泰利恒30天持有债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20399,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:46:44.480Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰利恒30天持有债券(020399)","name":"国泰利恒30天持有期债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"setUpAssetScale":2028515259.69,"setUpDate":"2024-03-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2028515259.69,"inceptionDate":"2024-03-07T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"gtlh30tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20747020","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":41908205970,"name":"丁士恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰利恒30天持有期债券型证券投资基金2026年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1475814","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69caca5b40924dd8ca638fce","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-03-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020399,"sao":"2025年债券市场呈现震荡格局，受货币政策、贸易摩擦、市场风偏等多重因素交织影响，整体表现承压。资金面由紧转松，下半年资金量宽价稳，DR007加权平均利率稳定在1.49%左右。全年，1Y国股存单收益率先上后下，3月初达最高2.02%，年末震荡下行至1.62%，10Y国债收益率收于1.85%。一季度债市主要受资金面影响。1月，央行政策重心转向稳汇率、防空转及单边利率风险，流动性持续偏紧，短端收益率快速上行，1Y国股存单上行20bp至1.75%，1Y与10Y国债期限利差较2024年12月末收敛近50bp。2月资金面依然偏紧，叠加Deepseek引领的“科技权益牛”，市场风险偏好回升，债券市场承压。3月中上旬，重要会议释放积极信号，市场风险偏好回升，降息预期落空，债券收益率大幅上行，10Y国债最高触及1.90%。中下旬央行加大投放力度，市场流动性预期好转，1Y国股存单下至1.88%，1Y国债下至1.54%，10Y国债下至1.80%。二季度债市下行后呈震荡走势。4月初，美国加征“对等关税”引发避险情绪，债券收益率快速下行，10Y国债下至1.64%。5月，“双降”带动资金中枢下移，DR007降至1.59%，短端收益率下行，长端收益率因止盈行为先下后上。6月初，央行提前公告买断式逆回购操作，释放流动性呵护信号，债券收益率下行。下旬，地缘局势缓和，全球风险偏好提升，上证指数突破关键点位，“股债跷跷板”效应压制债市，收益率长端回调，短端变化不大。三季度债市整体表现偏弱。7月上中旬债市震荡，科创债ETF规模扩张带动信用债走强，信用利差收窄。下旬“反内卷”行情演绎，商品和权益市场走强使得债市承压，债券收益率大幅上行，10Y国债上至1.75%。政治局会议与中美经贸协商落地后，债券收益率有所修复。8月\"股债跷跷板\"效应持续，债市延续调整。9月权益市场震荡，但债市情绪偏弱。中旬，国债买卖重启预期升温，推动债券收益率小幅修复，但跨季资金收敛与债基赎回变多，收益率再次上行并突破前高。央行大额投放后，资金压力缓和，收益率中短端修复。四季度，央行重启国债买卖，债市整体偏谨慎，长端震荡，短端收益率小幅下行。10月，中美贸易摩擦反复，债券收益率窄幅波动，信用利差压缩。27日央行宣布重启国债买卖，债券收益率迅速下行。11月政策空窗期，债市情绪偏谨慎，短端平稳，长端收益率上行，10Y国债上至1.83%。下旬受万科债券展期影响，信用利差走扩。12月，重要会议明确积极的财政政策与适度宽松的货币政策基调。下旬，央行重启14D逆回购呵护跨年流动性，短端收益率下行，1Y国股存单收于1.62%。超长债供需矛盾显现，长端情绪偏弱，全月10Y国债震荡在1.82-1.86%。操作上，本基金坚持组合的风险收益特征，延续稳健的操作思路，根据市场变化灵活运用杠杆和久期策略，主要配置短久期、中高等级品种，在严控组合信用风险和流动性风险的前提下为持有人获取稳定回报，实现组合净值稳步增长。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-30T19:09:15.446Z","mo":"展望2026年，国内经济处于新旧动能转换关键期，新经济如人工智能领域保持高速增长，传统经济如房地产投资仍在低位徘徊，内需修复进程偏慢，物价绝对增速偏低。随着反内卷政策继续推进，行业供需结构进一步优化，物价水平有望逐步回升，CPI中枢或将温和上行，PPI延续回暖态势。债市后市交易逻辑将聚焦经济修复斜率变化，需重点关注传统经济触底企稳信号，若出现边际改善，有望推动经济整体进入复苏通道。2026年央行将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。在“促进经济稳定增长、推动物价合理回升”的政策目标指引下，货币政策将保持流动性合理充裕，降准降息等总量型工具仍有操作空间，但落地节奏将更注重灵活性，以维持社会融资成本在合理低位运行。我们将采取稳健的投资策略，倾向于采用短久期、中高等级信用债的配置策略，辅以灵活的杠杆策略、品种策略、波段操作等来增厚收益，坚持组合的风险收益特征，精细化管理组合，力求在控制回撤的前提下提供持续稳定的组合净值表现。","fund":{"_id":3000000020399,"__csrcFundId":13643,"stockCode":"020399","masterFundShortName":"国泰利恒30天持有债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20399,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:46:44.480Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰利恒30天持有债券(020399)","name":"国泰利恒30天持有期债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"setUpAssetScale":2028515259.69,"setUpDate":"2024-03-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2028515259.69,"inceptionDate":"2024-03-07T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"gtlh30tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20747020","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":41908205970,"name":"丁士恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰利恒30天持有期债券型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1450265","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3557fea5b3eb053b785","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020399,"sao":"三季度债市整体表现不佳，一是“反内卷”等政策带来市场风险偏好提高，二是监管政策变化，债券基金负债端承压，债市收益率持续调整。7月债券市场中上旬维持震荡，在科创债ETF规模大增带动科创债成交火热下，信用债整体表现强势，信用利差收窄。下旬“反内卷”逐步演变为市场主线，商品和权益市场表现强劲，债券市场情绪走弱，叠加资金面收敛与理财预防性赎回，债券各期限收益率大幅上行。1Y国股存单从1.63%上行至1.68%左右，10Y国债从1.64%上行至1.746%，信用利差有所走阔。7月末，政治局会议与中美经贸协商落地，未见增量信息，商品与权益市场回调，债市各期限收益率迅速修复下行，1Y国股存单收于1.635%，10Y国债收于1.705%。8月“股债跷跷板”效应继续发酵，债市大幅调整。8月1日财政部、国家税务总局公告称，恢复新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利息收入的增值税。8月18日，上证指数盘中一度站上3740点，创2015年以来新高。市场风险偏好的提升对债市形成压制，基金赎回压力加剧长端利率波动，债市大幅调整。临近月末时点，股市情绪降温与资金面宽松推动短端品种有所修复，长端则持续调整，曲线走陡。全月，1Y国股存单从1.63%上行至1.68%后修复至1.66%，10Y国债则从1.70%持续上行至1.78%。9月权益市场进入震荡期，但债市情绪仍然偏弱，对利空因素更为敏感，债券各期限收益率上行。中旬市场对重启国债买卖的预期升温，债市收益率有所修复。月末，跨季资金阶段性收敛，叠加理财回表带来赎回较多，债市收益率再次上行并突破前高，信用利差走阔。随着央行大额投放跨月资金，资金压力缓和，债市尤其是中短端有所修复。全月，1Y国股存单从1.655%上行至1.695%后修复至1.665%，长端10Y国债从1.76%持续上行至1.81%后修复至1.78%。操作上，本基金延续稳健的操作思路，结合市场研判和组合规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月春节后 5 年 LPR 利率下调 25BP，叠加多地城商行存款利率调降，3 月初政府工作报告未给出超预期的刺激政策，债市做多情绪强劲，各期限下行；随后市场止盈需求增加，叠加跨季因素扰动，各期限小幅调整后窄幅波动。二季度，4月公布的一季度经济数据仍处于弱复苏状态，市场关注度较高的特别国债发行节奏低于预期，手工补息禁止后资金面阶段性宽松等因素共同推动债市收益率持续下行。月末央行提示超长债的久期风险，带动收益率转为上行。5月，超长期特别国债发行计划公布，节奏较市场预期更为平缓，包括一线城市在内的多项地产政策落地，债市收益率小幅震荡。6月，非银主导的流动性宽松延续，跨季资金面平稳；中旬公布的数据显示经济依然面临有效需求不足的挑战，债市收益率进一步下行。三季度，7月央行宣布开展国债借入操作，此举旨在通过信用方式借入国债影响长端利率，中旬央行宣布降息使得收益率转为下行。8月收益率先上后下，央行通过预期管理、借入国债、强监管、卖出国债等方式修正利率单边下行预期，债市有所调整。信用债表现不及利率债，后半段有一定修复。9月受宏观政策刺激以及股市提振影响，债市出现调整，在央行双降后公布支持资本市场的结构性货币政策工具，股债跷跷板效应显现。四季度，10月初权益市场风险偏好提升，整体收益率上行。伴随10月中旬权益市场回归震荡，债市恐慌情绪消退。11月，特朗普当选下任美国总统，市场担忧25年贸易摩擦升级；增量财政政策细节公布，重点在于化债，年末两个不确定因素落地后债市收益率稳步下行。11月下旬，地方债发行进入高峰期，央行加大对流动性的投放以配合发债节奏，资金面总体平稳。月末非银同业自律倡议落地，短端带动收益率进一步下行。12月，货币政策基调转为“适度宽松”，市场对于降准降息预期升温，年末抢跑行情提前启动，整体收益率加速下行。全年总体流动性合理充裕， 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年中国经济增长更注重质量和可持续性。政策对居民消费的扶持或延续。在美国潜在关税政策下，整体出口或呈现前高后低的趋势。房地产方面，稳地产政策或继续推进，地产销售降幅有望进一步收窄，但房价和地产投资的企稳仍面临商品房库存偏高、房企资金不足等挑战，投资增速或继续底部徘徊。债市正式进入“1%利率时代”，支持性的货币政策有望延续流动性宏观层面的“适度宽松”，总量货币政策预计会持续发力，广谱利率仍有调降空间，流动性将保持充裕。我们将采取稳健的投资策略，倾向于采用短久期、中高等级信用债的配置策略，辅以灵活的杠杆策略、品种策略、波段操作等来增厚收益，坚持组合的风险收益特征，精细化管理组合，力求在控制回撤的前提下提供持续稳定的组合净值表现。","fund":{"_id":3000000020399,"__csrcFundId":13643,"stockCode":"020399","masterFundShortName":"国泰利恒30天持有债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":20399,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:46:44.480Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰利恒30天持有债券(020399)","name":"国泰利恒30天持有期债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"setUpAssetScale":2028515259.69,"setUpDate":"2024-03-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2028515259.69,"inceptionDate":"2024-03-07T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"gtlh30tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20747020","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":41908205970,"name":"丁士恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰利恒30天持有期债券型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1253096","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3557fea5b3eb053b781","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020399,"sao":"三季度债券收益率依然维持震荡下行趋势，季度末涨幅有一定缩小，收益率曲线牛陡。全季度周期内，由于央行降准降息叠加购买短债卖出长债，3年国债下行较多。7月收益率整体下行，央行宣布开展国债借入操作，此举旨在通过信用方式借入国债影响长端利率，中旬央行宣布降息使得收益率转为下行。8月收益率先上后下，央行通过预期管理、借入国债、强监管、卖出国债等方式修正利率单边下行预期，债市有所调整。信用债表现不及利率债，后半段有一定修复。9月受宏观政策刺激以及股市提振影响，债市出现调整，在央行双降后公布支持资本市场的结构性货币政策工具，股债跷跷板效应显现。随后政治局会议超预期讨论经济，股市进一步上涨，债券收益率跟随上行。    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