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 策略运作上我们维持此前的观点不变：整体上我们选择优势制造业细分龙头作为底仓，在代表新质生产力的成长股方向结合估值和未来成长空间选择具备独特竞争优势的细分行业和隐形冠军进行配置。大方向上，中游新质生产力方向是当前和未来新型举国体制下重点投入的关键环节，代表科技自立自强和效率提升方向，中长期空间潜力较大。落地到投资机会来看，以机器人为代表的AI应用将是2025年竞相落地的真正元年，各科技巨头都将入局参与军备竞赛、且中美你追我赶竞合态势会愈演愈烈。此外，市场依然存在供需两侧的结构性机会：1）以医药、军工为代表的行业存在困境反转的磨底态势；2）内需市场内卷竞争打磨后的超强竞争力带来出海机遇；3）智能化为代表的效率跃升等供需两端的新变化具备趋势性和结构性亮点。这些都将纳入我们视野进行评估、捕捉变化带来的机会。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.995Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1271078","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb0539869","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"2024年的股票市场跌宕起伏，年初恐慌情绪蔓延再到春节前暴力反弹；三季度末政策信号扭转带来四季度股票市场在异常亢奋的市场情绪开局……这种宽幅波动场面的复杂性是远超管理人年初预期的。回头看，整个过程可谓一波三折，市场针对政策力度和持续性的期待及预期落地效果之间的博弈，在股债市场渐次产生巨大分歧。整体看，股票市场分化巨大，价值因子全面领涨、中小盘股波动巨大，这背后包含投资者风险偏好、久期、国九条等制度改革等众多因素。对应到我们的策略，于年初采用哑铃型策略，并选择优势制造业细分龙头作为底仓，在代表新质生产力的成长股方向结合估值和未来成长空间选择具备独特竞争优势的细分行业和隐形冠军进行配置，中间表现一般，但在三季度末的政策转向明显准备度不足，导致产品表现落后、整体表现严重低于既定投资计划，在国庆节后开始全面转向成长奋力追赶但未能达标，对此我们深刻反思、认真吸取教训。业绩不好、自身持有产品真的感同身受。旧的结束正是新的开始，唯有以兢兢业业、全力以赴追赶回业绩的实际行动才能表达深深的歉意，站在当前时点管理人满怀信心。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.992Z","mo":"当前时点，随着政策不断出台落地，市场会在不断跟踪落地效果和对新的政策持续性的期待过程中反复检验、存在各类行业证真和证伪的不同投资机会，我们希望抓住产业真相里切实带来效率提升、新场景变革、产业升级等的企业利润倍增或企业竞争力跃迁的投资机会。产业投资机会方面，代表生产力效率跃升的硬科技和新质生产力方向蕴含大量的产业机会，包括人形机器人（AI应用）、低空经济、卫星互联网、焊接机器人等众多细分领域，分阶段处在0-1、1-10、10-100等进程上，我们深信，中游新质生产力方向是当前和未来新型举国体制下重点投入的关键环节，代表科技自立自强和效率提升方向，中长期空间潜力较大。我们长期跟踪研判产业空间、变化斜率，对卡位关键环节、具备独特竞争力的细分品种，通过“胜率品种买在赔率拐点、赔率品种买在胜率拐点”的性价比评估方式纳入组合范围，在追求合理回报同时持续关注内生价值和风险的匹配度。具体到细分行业上，中游新质生产力方向是当前和未来新型举国体制下重点投入的关键环节，代表科技自立自强和效率提升方向，中长期空间潜力较大。落地到投资机会来看，2025年将是以机器人为代表的AI应用竞相落地的真正元年，各科技巨头都将入局参与军备竞赛、且中美你追我赶竞合态势会愈演愈烈。此外，市场依然存在供需两侧的结构性机会：1）以医药、军工为代表的行业存在困境反转的磨底态势；2）内需市场内卷竞争打磨后的超强竞争力带来出海机遇；3）智能化为代表的效率跃升等供需两端的新变化具备趋势性和结构性亮点。这些都将纳入我们视野进行评估、捕捉变化带来的机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1253075","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb0539868","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"2024年三季度注定是要载入史册的一个季度：整个季度绝大多时间继续大盘价值全面领涨、中小盘股全面承压的两极分化状态，且呈现避险情绪的逐级放大；然而就在季末，随着一揽子政策打出和首次9月召开的政治局会议一锤定音后，风险偏好发生彻底扭转，使得此前存量博弈不断追求避险的市场发生根本性改变，也就是说，熊牛思维一瞬间发生了切换。由于此前我们采用偏防御的方式应对回撤，组合里稳定类资产和红利类资产居多、仓位不足，在市场风险偏好剧烈变化之时未能迅速切换，整体表现低于既定投资计划，作为管理人深表歉意并感同身受，但是好在市场回暖了、市场风险偏好起来了，我们认为到了可以发挥特长和积极选股奋起追赶的时候了，我们会切换到高风险偏好思维，主动选择低估值有故事、低位置有期待、增配一些能打破估值框架的故事性品种作为战术性进攻方向。站在当期时点，管理人依然满怀信心、后续力争通过自下而上精选个股的方式努力追赶。一如既往，我们的投资策略是朴素地评估所选公司未来发展所对应收益率的胜率和赔率，结合风险敞口、通过分散行业属性，做好组合管理。选股过程会综合多学科多视角，运用跨周期思维，长期跟踪研判产业空间、变化斜率，对卡位关键环节、具备独特竞争力的细分品种，通过“胜率品种买在赔率拐点、赔率品种买在胜率拐点”的性价比评估方式纳入组合范围，在追求合理回报同时持续关注内生价值和风险的匹配度。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.990Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1175262","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb0539867","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"2024年上半年的市场是分化的市场，大市值风格在全球范围内都是高胜率资产，而A股则以大盘价值全面领涨、中小盘股全面承压的两极分化状态呈现避险情绪的逐级放大，这背后隐含投资者风险偏好、久期、也包括国九条等制度改革等众多因素。我们去年Q3开始采用哑铃型策略，并指出红利和微盘风格的占优也部分体现了投资人避险防御的市场特征；但在年初大幅波动里，哑铃一头的微盘在系列衍生品出现流动性风险时大幅下跌，再次沉重打击了市场风险偏好。这再次提醒我们留意尾部风险的释放，并通过组合管理的方式去分散风险，尤其是分散单一风格的潜在链式反应的风险。二季度以来，量化等微观活跃资金乃至北向等带来成交量持续萎缩，使得市场存量博弈下不断追求避险和“当下肉眼可见”的确定性。回顾看，在年初大波动的市场环境里，采用哑铃型策略并更偏成长一端的我们表现落后、整体表现低于既定投资计划，作为管理人深表歉意并感同身受，面向未来，管理人认真吸取教训、总结经验并深刻反思，把控制回撤作为重要的目标函数反复审视，千方百计把困难考虑的更多一些、把风险加权后的收益率测算的更全面一些。站在当期时点，管理人依然满怀信心、后续力争通过自下而上精选个股的方式努力追赶。一如既往，我们的投资策略是朴素地评估所选公司未来发展所对应收益率的胜率和赔率，结合风险敞口、通过分散行业属性，做好组合管理。选股过程会综合多学科多视角运用跨周期思维，长期跟踪研判产业空间、变化斜率，对卡位关键环节、具备独特竞争力的细分品种，通过“胜率品种买在赔率拐点、赔率品种买在胜率拐点”的性价比评估方式纳入组合范围，在追求合理回报同时持续关注内生价值和风险的匹配度。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.987Z","mo":"身处“百年未有之大变局”中，唯一不变的就是变化、唯一确定的就是不确定性。国内债券市场的火爆尤其是长债利率的加速下行是史无前例的，对应到股票市场则呈现出高股息红利类成为市场焦点，我们认可这类资产的中长期配置价值。展望下半年，风险和机遇并存，海外局部冲突和各地大选深刻影响未来全球版图、不确定性升温，需留意贸易保护主义压制经营可展望度；而本轮国内经济采用“固本培元”渐进式调理的方式，部分行业仍以防风险为主基调、以往偏刺激的库存周期运行规律失效，我们持续观察并审慎研判，并对下半年国际政经局势警惕、认真审视组合风险敞口，避免经验主义。我们在组合选择上延续哑铃型策略，但为避免重点制造业持仓方向的风格相关度过高、降低了对应权益仓位，这是综合风险收益比后深思熟虑的考量、也为后续择机出击留有子弹。具体而言，我们依旧在代表新质生产力的成长股方向结合估值和未来成长空间选择具备独特竞争优势的细分行业和隐形冠军进行配置。中游新质生产力方向是当前和未来新型举国体制下重点投入的关键环节，代表科技自立自强和效率提升方向，中长期空间潜力较大。与此同时，我们观察到供需两侧均有结构性机会：1）电子等板块呈现需求侧多点开花、部分环节竞争格局优秀；2）部分制造业龙头在内需市场内卷竞争打磨后获得超强竞争力，带来出海机遇、典型如亚非拉等新兴市场国家的需求平替；3）智能化为代表的效率跃升赋能工业端；4）长期经营稳定、具备行业垄断地位的央国企；5）设备更新等政策加持下带来弱补库的价格弹性；6）军工、医药等板块或迎来潜在的由点及面的拐点型机会；这些都将纳入我们视野进行评估、捕捉资产重估带来的机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1147753","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb0539866","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"2024年年初市场大幅波动，从恐慌情绪蔓延再到节前暴力反弹。这样的场面，虽有心理准备但其复杂性依然大幅超出管理人去年末的判断。我们去年Q3开始采用哑铃型策略，并指出红利和微盘风格的占优也部分体现了投资人避险防御的市场特征；但在年初大幅波动里，哑铃一头的微盘在系列衍生品出现流动性风险时大幅下跌，再次沉重打击了市场风险偏好。这再次提醒我们留意尾部风险的释放，并通过组合管理的方式去分散风险，尤其是分散单一风格的潜在链式反应的风险。不过，换个视角看，一季度的宽幅震荡带来的充分换手，实际上也使得筹码结构趋于新的平衡，这意味着小微盘股在相对稳定的环境里具备新的基本面定价的微观基础，更适合选股选手深挖基本面因子、再次回到重新审视的起点。回顾看，在年初大波动的市场环境里，采用哑铃型策略并更偏成长一端的我们表现落后、季度表现低于去年末的投资计划，不过，站在当期时点，管理人依然满怀信心、后续力争通过自下而上精选个股的方式努力追赶。一如既往，我们的投资策略是朴素地评估公司未来发展所对应收益率的胜率和赔率，结合风险暴露分散行业属性，做好组合管理。选股过程会综合多学科多视角运用跨周期思维，长期跟踪研判产业空间、变化斜率，对卡位关键环节、具备独特竞争力的细分品种，通过“胜率品种买在赔率拐点、赔率品种买在胜率拐点”的性价比评估方式纳入组合范围，在追求合理回报同时持续关注内生价值和风险的匹配度。此时此刻，我们大胆猜想，过去几年由于单一风格因素暴露带来的显著超额收益阶段或有收窄，这样，对于企业基本面深度挖掘的自下而上选股型选手具有大展身手的舞台。","declarationDate":"2024-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.984Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1072191","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb0539865","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"回顾2023年，经济“波浪式发展、曲折式前进”的恢复过程不断呈现在投资者预期变化上，加之国际国内宏观形势更显复杂，国内股票市场走势偏弱。上半场不少投资者偏向于在顺周期领域配置复苏和复苏斜率，最终发现此前投资者普遍观察基本面指标，包括经济复苏的进度、政策出台的力度、预期复苏的幅度，最终在复杂的国内外形势下偏离预期、渐失信心，沉重打击了市场的风险偏好，并对未来增长的预期产生严重分歧。以红利和微盘的风格占优也体现了部分投资人避险防御的市场特征。后半程我们选择上游资源品和医药做底仓，在代表新质生产力的成长股方向结合估值和未来成长空间选择具备独特竞争优势的细分行业和隐形冠军进行配置，整体呈现哑铃型策略。一方面，上游资源品部分环节在过去几年供给显著不足、存在涨价再通胀的景气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诸多背景下，A股股票市场在短期内巨幅震荡，先大幅下跌进而快速反弹，但整体表现较为弱势。这再一次表明了股票市场短期走势经常是意料之外情理之中，而对其提前预判的准确概率则非常可疑。本基金组合致力于在承担可控风险的基础上获得合理的长期回报，短期波动对投资决策的影响非常有限，主要关注市场是否给予在较低的价格增持优秀企业的机会。在报告期内，组合的主体持仓基本保持稳定。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.965Z","mo":"当前虽然关于疫情、通胀、美国等主要发达国家经济体的短期变化仍然难以准确估计，但相对这些不确定性而言，基于对国内政府强大的资源调动能力的信心，从去年开始逐步走弱的国内经济持续恶化的可能性已经比较低。考虑到部分优质企业的股票价格已经经历一段较长时间的调整期，且其相对竞争优势和长期发展前景并没有显著恶化，我们认为其当前的潜在回报水平已经不错。近两年来，快速扩张的一些行业的股价走势相对较为突出，但随着产业链发展的逐步演化，其供给侧能否形成持续的约束、领先的企业能否建立较为深度的护城河以维护自己的盈利能力会显得越来越重要，行业内部大概率会大幅分化。如果仅仅依靠规模扩张较快而被贴上成长股标签，在不断博弈中估值高位的公司将面临永久性损失的风险。基金组合仍会以长期持有优质企业为主。其主要特点是处在稳定且慢变的领域，公司已经积累了难以轻易被颠覆的竞争力，且其长期增长潜力仍然不错。考虑到中国经济当前仍处在比较快速的增长阶段，不少优质企业的国际竞争优势也在增强，中国人民富起来的时间也太短，这类企业仍同时具备较好的成长空间和确定性，其仍处在对股东回报的黄金期。此外，考虑中国作为追赶型经济体的自身特征，以及A股市场的情绪波动相较成熟市场更为剧烈，组合也会考虑其他类型的投资机会，一类是相对优秀程度虽不顶级但价格足够低的价值类型的公司；一类是公司在发展的早期即展现出足够的差异化经营思路，可能在未来逐步建立护城河的成长型企业。","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=780498","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb053985e","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"2022年一季度以来，在国际局势恶化、国内宏观经济走弱以及疫情再度复燃等多重背景下，国内股票市场走势较为低迷。除少数在通胀预期下相对受损较小的行业外，大部分公司的股价均经历了一轮调整。本基金组合致力于在承担可控风险的基础上获得合理的长期回报，短期波动对投资决策的影响非常有限，主要关注市场是否给予在较低的价格增持优秀企业的机会。在报告期内，组合的主体持仓基本保持稳定。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.962Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=728176","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb053985d","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"2021年以来，市场分化程度较大，以沪深300为代表的大盘蓝筹股表现较为低迷，部分中小市值公司以及受益于双碳政策的板块表现相对突出。本基金组合致力于在承担可控风险的基础上获得合理的长期回报，短期波动对投资决策的影响非常有限，主要关注市场是否给予在较低的价格增持优秀企业的机会。在报告期内，组合的主体持仓基本保持稳定。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.960Z","mo":"在此简要陈述下基金经理对于机构投资者中较为流行的以行业景气度作为重要决策依据的观点。行业景气的起落本身是产业发展的客观规律，在行业的高景气阶段，企业发展的各种有利消息接踵而来，这对市场中庞大的参与者都是一种积极的信号。景气度的边际变化经常在短期非常明显，这主要影响的是市场中众多参与者对企业阶段上增长速度的预期。而企业价值是在其整个生命周期中创造的，并非增长快时价值量就高，而增长慢时价值就低。因此追逐景气度的策略是以股票为筹码、以和市场的预期差为坐标的一种交易行为。如若市场过度追求景气度，则可能出现非常激烈的博弈，导致股票阶段上的定价与实际价值发生较大的偏差，从而加剧市场的波动。在这个过程中，对于长期投资者而言，更为关注的是是否有更好的机会买入其长期看好的优质企业。对于产业具备较大想象空间的领域，市场倾向于给予相关的股票较高的估值。较好的增长空间诚然是价值创造的一种因素，但并不是一个充分条件。如果在供给侧没有形成中长期的约束，以及领先的企业不具备一些良好的经济特征以长期维护自己的高盈利能力，则在长时间内供给的总量和结构总是会相对于需求恶化，进而大幅侵蚀企业的盈利能力，相关的股票面临较大的风险。站在目前时点，继续维持长期以来的基本观点。对中国优秀企业的长期投资机会依然充满信心。相对于一年之前，部分优质的公司的价格已经相对更为合理，如继续调整则是更好的介入机会。基金组合的投资重点仍是聚焦于那些具备较好商业模式和企业文化的少数企业。行业上重点仍在消费、制造业、互联网和医疗健康等领域。","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=710253","linkType":"PDF"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位，也让不少在资本市场浸淫多年的分析师们把主要精力投入去研究“心中的花”。世界是个大舞台，内心是个小世界。我们无法左右这个大舞台的剧情，但仍可以努力追求内心世界的进步和平静。事实上，无论国际环境在短期内如何改变，任何一个国家、组织、个人的基本内在属性短期内不会变化，中国真正的比较优势产业不会一夜之间就丧失地位，落后产业的发展也需要天时地利人和多种因素的支持，“幸福都是奋斗出来的”。近代社会以来，人类经济活动发展的历史，是一部在曲折中进步的历史，更有效率、更先进的技术和组织取代相对低效的事物是一个大概率的事件。因此我们在这个动荡的世界中，选择和最优秀的企业为伴。思考哪些企业最有生命力，最能适应甚至是创造未来，并向其学习是我们的主要工作，而并不是去和市场短期的情绪波动博弈。当前世界正处于“百年未有之大变局”，全世界最优秀企业未来的发展空间大概率会超越大众的线性认知。优秀的企业长期创造回报的空间仍然很大，当然这必须建立在真实的比较优势和盈利基础上，而不是资本市场贴上标签就可以。未来我们会进一步提高研究的效率，持续优化组合，不断寻找更好的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=554815","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb0539858","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"2020年三季度以来，国际环境维持了复杂多变的局面，而国内经济逐步在新冠肺炎疫情的短期冲击后走出稳步复苏的态势，国内基本面维持向好。A股市场整体表现较为不错，基金组合也取得了一定收益。需要强调的是，本基金组合致力于获得长期回报，因此短期波动对我们的决策影响非常有限。在三季度，我们组合的主体持仓仍旧保持稳定。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.941Z","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2020年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=492048","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3347fea5b3eb0539857","stockId":3000000020005,"sao":"市场经历了2019年的持续上涨之后，在本年初极为充沛的流动性背景下展现出明显的高风险偏好的行情，局部领域过热现象比较明显。而突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情在短期又成为了左右市场表现的主导力量。市场波动较大。在国内疫情得到基本控制，全球主要经济体货币政策较为积极释放的背景下，二季度股票市场又走出了比较强势的风险偏好持续提升的上涨行情。新兴产业和部分消费品行业的阶段表现更为突出。本基金组合的管理目标在于长期投资而非短期投机，市场无论是剧烈波动还是平稳运行都不影响我们对于投资标的的长期价值判断。当然我们的长期投资标的也会在市场的上涨中实现其价值的回归进而得到应有的回报，我们更关注的是长期持有带来的结果，而非短期难以预测的过程。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:32.939Z","mo":"站在当前时点，第一我们认为优质标的长期投资机会依然显著，第二我们认为市场仍旧存在结构性的高估和低估。当然随着市场整体的上涨，低估的品种在逐步变得稀缺。这使得市场整体的短期预期收益率应该适当降低，而不是随着市场的快速上涨变的更为乐观。因此，当下我们特别强调建议投资者以更为长远的角度思考问题。我们依然长期看好中国优势产业的长期成长机会，包括但不限于消费、互联网、医药、制造业等产业，但优质的公司其实更为重要。我们会继续坚持用长远的视角筛选优质的标的，相信经历风雨过后会继续为投资者回馈良好的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000020005,"stockCode":"020005","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":32,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2004-05-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1230740000,"market":"a","tickerId":20005,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":76,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:45.088Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2004-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰金马稳健回报混合","pinyin":"gtjmwjhbzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20916299","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":240803235890,"name":"谢泓材"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰金马稳健回报证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=462648","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}