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，通胀低位回升，名义增速有所修复。权益市场冲高后回落、结构分化，原油受中东扰动偏强，输入型通胀预期抬升，风险偏好先扬后抑。资金面平稳宽松，信贷需求一般，叠加银行年初债券配置力量较强，带动中短端利率大幅下行、信用债利率稳步下行，期限利差走扩，收益率曲线陡峭化下行。具体来看，1月上旬春季躁动权益强势，叠加供给担忧下债市连跌；中下旬权益降温，债市迎来修复行情，信用利率下行、信用利差收窄。2月春节前债市延续修复行情，春节后临近两会债市有所调整，月末中东局势突发变动带动油价大幅上涨，风险偏好下降。3月资金面平稳宽松，叠加同业自律升级，短端利率大幅下行，同业存单存量和收益率也明显下行；信用利率下行、信用利差被动小幅走阔。30年因供需结构和通胀担忧，收益率小幅上行；10年以内的中短端债券收益率均陡峭化下行，信用债表现较好。我们在年报中预判“债市1月初已通过压力测试，一季度是较好配置窗口”，该观点得到市场验证。报告期内，组合维持了较优的信用配置同时加强了利率交易。展望后市，宏观经济预计仍将呈现“K型”格局：AI等新经济动能强劲，须关注其应用端落地和估值压力；传统旧经济压力仍在但边际减轻，私人部门的信贷需求仍显疲弱，重点关注地缘冲突下的全球需求、出口和通胀的边际走向。财政政策延续此前态度，更关注财政的可持续性、债务化解和结构；货币政策维持宽松，尽管降息预期或下降但降准或可期。银行体系内生流动性充裕支撑了当前曲线牛陡的走势，但短端策略也有一定的拥挤。未来1-2个月的时点比较关键，关注美以伊局势的走向以及市场风险偏好：若海外风险及供应链问题推升衰退预期，超长端有望修复并带来交易性机会；若海外战争烈度下降，出口需求延续景气，国内基本面可以延续此前好转的势头，中短端利率可能出现小幅调整。组合操作方面，本组合将继续遵循稳健投资理念，在投资策略上保持积极主动，在投资思路上坚持开放灵活，维持灵活久期、适度杠杆的操作思路。当前资金面整体平稳，信用债重点关注凸点的配置价值和骑乘收益；利率债短端定价基本到位，关注超长端和长端的交易机会，可积极把握博弈机会并加强逆向操作。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T15:41:46.913Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019979,"__csrcFundId":13273,"stockCode":"019979","masterFundShortName":"博时中高等级信用债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19979,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:34:17.599Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时中高等级信用债(019979)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时中高等级信用债债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":456835603.9,"setUpDate":"2023-12-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":456835603.9,"inceptionDate":"2023-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bszgdjxyzzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20177814","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261212126030,"name":"张李陵"},{"stockCode":"db20868899","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2023227030,"name":"唐薇"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时中高等级信用债债券型证券投资基金2026年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1473293","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3317fea5b3eb053949d","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019979,"sao":"四季度资本市场呈现出“宏观边际承压、股市高位换手、债券收益率先下后上”的特征：宏观层面，前三季度实际GDP累计增长5.2%，四季度同比有所下降但全年5%左右的目标基本完成，全年经济运行节奏延续“前高后低”。物价方面，CPI低位徘徊、核心温和改善；PPI同比降幅收敛但新涨价因素弱于预期。政策层面，四中全会和政治局会议整体定调积极，货币政策基调延续“适度宽松”，重提“跨周期”、“发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应”、“切实提升宏观经济治理效能”等。股市在反内卷和过万亿贸易顺差背景下，A股突破4000点后维持高位震荡、风格高低切换，成交活跃度较三季度高点有所收敛。债券方面，三季度债市走弱后，四季度收益率高位区间震荡，在央行宣布重启买债和实际买债低于预期、货币政策预期落空影响下，收益率先下后上，10年期国债利率在1.75%-1.85%附近波动，超长债波动更大，期限利差阶段性走阔，收益率曲线呈现典型的“熊陡”形态，信用端呈低位利差与结构性分化并存的特征。展望后市，宏观经济预计仍K型发展：AI相关的新经济很好，但传统的旧经济仍有压力；高频数据显示出口和新基建带动部分行业回升，但房地产压力和私人部门的信贷需求压力仍较大；重点关注出口和消费的走向。通胀在基数效应带动下同比会有所回升，但更关键在于环比即新涨价的走势，对应通胀回升的质量和企业盈利改善的空间。政策层面，广义赤字率预计基本平稳或小幅提升，货币政策表态将延续适度宽松、流动性保持充裕，但更强调政策精准协调。对于债市，我们认为债市或仍将延续区间震荡、结构分化行情，一季度或是较好的配置窗口。静态看，当前超长端期限利差已处于现有收益率水平下的相对极端区间，对价格和利率上行的担忧已有较充分反映；动态看，仍需关注风险偏好和负债端，以及央行和商业银行配置的方向和节奏。总体而言，考虑整体债务率不支持利率大幅上行，债市中长期配置价值仍在，而中短端因支持性货币政策具备较高确定性，长端与超长端更适合在严格风控框架下灵活参与博弈。组合操作方面，本组合将继续遵循稳健投资理念，在投资策略上保持积极主动，在投资思路上坚持开放灵活，维持灵活久期、适度杠杆的操作思路。当前资金面整体平稳，信用债重点关注2-3年期的配置价值；利率债波动加大但上行空间有限，可积极把握博弈机会并加强逆向操作。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:29.371Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019979,"__csrcFundId":13273,"stockCode":"019979","masterFundShortName":"博时中高等级信用债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19979,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:34:17.599Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时中高等级信用债(019979)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时中高等级信用债债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":456835603.9,"setUpDate":"2023-12-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":456835603.9,"inceptionDate":"2023-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bszgdjxyzzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20177814","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261212126030,"name":"张李陵"},{"stockCode":"db20868899","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2023227030,"name":"唐薇"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时中高等级信用债债券型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1454644","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3317fea5b3eb053949c","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019979,"sao":"2025年三季度，债市在“反内卷”叙事带动的盈利预期好转、风险偏好回升及权益市场走强、公募债基负债端扰动担忧等多重因素下，持续调整。其中公募基金配置更为集中的品种如30年国债、商业银行二永债等调整更为显著，期限利差明显走扩。全季来看，30年期国债活跃券收益率从低点最多上行40bp，并收于2.1475%；十年期国债收益率上行15bp至1.785%；一年期国债收益率从1.33%上行至1.38%。进入三季度，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工，同时本轮“反内卷”叙事拉开“反内卷交易”的序幕，权益及商品市场大幅上涨。尽管PPI新涨价因素仍较弱，但市场交易的通缩逻辑有所动摇，对债市形成压制。同时，股市涨势较好，上证指数持续刷新近10年新高，向3900点发起挑战，股债行情两极分化，“看股做债”逻辑主导债市，带动10年、30年国债期货主力合约跌破年线。进入9月，虽然主要经济数据偏弱，通胀数据也弱于预期，但因市场担忧公募债基负债端或有扰动，使得公募基金配置更为集中的品种调整更为显著，如30年国债、商业银行二永债、长期限信用债、政金债等，品种利差和期限利差明显走扩。尽管9月美联储降息落地，但国内现阶段降息预期不强，且央行国债买卖操作尚未落地；虽央行整体呵护资金面，但债市仍持续调整，尤其是中长端品种。展望后市，近期经济数据有所走弱，消费、投资、基建及社融需求均有所回落，市场担忧10月中下旬或有政策出台，但现阶段重心或在“十五五”规划编制工作上，年内政策空间或有限。展望未来，关税对出口的影响、“以旧换新”政策下提前释放的消费需求、房地产市场面临一定调整压力、“反内卷”对生产端的影响，都会给基本面带来一定压力。短期来看，债券市场的压力来自机构行为、监管政策和风险偏好，关注赎回费相关规定终稿的落地，但仍应考虑社融年内高点已现，若信贷需求偏弱则市场对稳健类资产仍有配置需求，只是配置品种会有所变化。不过我们认为，利率中枢仍需锚定基本面和货币政策，在基本面和资金面未发生明显变化的情况下，债券收益率上行空间或有限，市场更多呈现结构分化特征。且社融规模年内高点已现，后续增速或有所放缓；银行负债成本有所下降，对债券仍有一定配置需求；当前市场更关注货币政策的天平何时转向进一步宽松。债市要走出当前震荡区间，需等待核心逻辑出现转变，可能的触发因素包括：基本面继续走弱、谈判取得进展、国内降准降息或央行购债等货币宽松落地、政策落地及相关部门出台配套呵护措施。组合操作方面，本组合将继续遵循稳健投资理念，在投资策略上保持积极主动，在投资思路上坚持开放灵活，维持灵活久期、适度杠杆的操作思路。当前资金面整体平稳，信用债重点关注2-3年期的配置价值；利率债波动加大但上行空间有限，可积极把握博弈机会并加强逆向操作。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:29.369Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019979,"__csrcFundId":13273,"stockCode":"019979","masterFundShortName":"博时中高等级信用债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19979,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:34:17.599Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时中高等级信用债(019979)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时中高等级信用债债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":456835603.9,"setUpDate":"2023-12-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":456835603.9,"inceptionDate":"2023-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bszgdjxyzzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20177814","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261212126030,"name":"张李陵"},{"stockCode":"db20868899","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2023227030,"name":"唐薇"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时中高等级信用债债券型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1373595","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3317fea5b3eb053949b","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019979,"sao":"2025年上半年，经济超预期、风险偏好回升而后贸易战超预期等依次影响下，收益率先上后下；短端在央行暂停购买国债之后恢复正常，带动短端利率回归正常，收益率曲线平坦化。一季度因经济数据好于预期、Deepseek引发AI行情、市场风险偏好回升、股债跷跷板，叠加资金面持续超预期紧张、货币政策节奏预期差、公开市场暂停国债买入等影响下，收益率迅速调整，短端快速回归正常带动曲线平坦化上移。10年期国债收益率从最低点1.60%左右，最高上行至3月17日的1.90%。临近一季度末，资金面受央行呵护，且MLF采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展；同时配置盘继续入场，三月中下旬开始企稳，十年国债收益率下行至1.8%左右，一年期国债收益率从年初的1.08%上行至1.54%，期间因赎回压力信用债调整更大。进入二季度，全球贸易摩擦升级，4月3日美方宣布对贸易伙伴征收“对等关税”远超预期，驱动市场基本面预期和货币政策的转向，期间中国央行降准50bp、降息10bp，并引导存款挂牌利率下调，带动债券收益率整体下行。5月，降息落地叠加中美关税缓和，使得5月债市收益率上行后维持横盘窄幅震荡。6月，尽管同业存单到期量较大，但央行多种工具操作使得跨季资金平稳、资金利率下台阶，从而也带动债券收益率下行，二季度末10年期国债收益率较3月17日下行25BP至1.64%，且信贷需求一般和金融脱媒影响下，信用债好于利率债。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:29.366Z","mo":"展望后市，短期关注：（1）权益市场的情绪、风险偏好，以及降存款利率后的资金流向；（2）综合整治“反内卷”竞争对PPI以及商品市场的情绪和实质影响；（3）贸易谈判的拉锯战，会带来风险偏好的不确定性和波动；（4）央行重心在稳增长、降成本、稳汇率等之间的边际变化，不过我们整体认为降低负债成本支持实体经济（包括存款和同业负债）是较为确定的方向。目前债市预期了部分下半年基本面压力及宽松的预期，最新货币政策例会或表明下一次政策的宽松需等一等，叠加近期机构久期偏长，短期考虑机构行为和博弈，债券或区间震荡为主。中期看，全球贸易摩擦和不确定上升的背景下，对国内经济、就业以及结构的影响是深远的。房地产压力虽然二阶导好转，但整体仍在有压力；没有需求提振的低通胀格局虽有改善但很难逆转，尤其是不确定性下海外的需求也存在变数。整体来看，市场大幅调整压力也相对可控，因为信贷需求一般、低通胀环境延续。此外，本轮存款挂牌利率的调降力度较大，帮助金融机构减轻净息差压力的同时，一方面现在同业负债反而较高，需要引导下行；另一方面，或阶段性有金融脱媒的压力。中期在基本面压力下债券收益率仍有望下行，信贷需求有限背景下信用债仍需重视，关注机构行为、风险偏好及政策。组合操作上，本组合将继续遵循稳健投资理念，投资策略上积极主动，投资思路上开放灵活，维持灵活久期、适度杠杆。私人部门扩表意愿有限的背景下，信用利差预计难以明显走扩，如有调整可加强配置。利率波动加大、上行有顶，可适度博弈并加强逆向操作。","fund":{"_id":3000000019979,"__csrcFundId":13273,"stockCode":"019979","masterFundShortName":"博时中高等级信用债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19979,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:34:17.599Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时中高等级信用债(019979)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时中高等级信用债债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":456835603.9,"setUpDate":"2023-12-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":456835603.9,"inceptionDate":"2023-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bszgdjxyzzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20177814","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261212126030,"name":"张李陵"},{"stockCode":"db20868899","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2023227030,"name":"唐薇"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时中高等级信用债债券型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1341078","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3317fea5b3eb053949a","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019979,"sao":"2025年一季度，债券收益率呈现先下后上的趋势，最终在3月下旬小幅修复。年初风险偏好下降，收益率惯性下行创新低；而后在风险偏好回升、股债跷跷板、资金面持续超预期紧张、货币政策节奏预期差、暂停短端国债买入等影响下，收益率迅速调整；季末央行呵护资金面，配置盘入场，市场稳住。十年期国债收益率从季初的1.67%上行至季末的1.81%，一年期国债收益率从1.08%上行至1.54%，呈现“熊陡”特征。1月初，PMI数据不及预期，供给传闻略有扰动，但随着风险偏好下行、降准降息预期较强，债市收益率延续惯性下行。随后央行对债市关注再度升温，央行工作会议提及“防止资金空转”、同时公告称1月起暂停开展公开市场国债买入操作，债市收益率震荡，短端利率从低位快速上行。春节后，国常会释放促消费及产业调整信号、四季度货币政策报告提出“择机调整政策节奏”。此外，经济数据好预期、社融数据超预期、房地产小阳春、Deepseek引发AI行情和科技及民企座谈会，风险偏好明显回升，债市情绪持续承压，长端收益率有所上行。3月上旬，两会召开，整体政策基本符合预期，赤字率4%体现积极地财政政策，但部委交流会进一步修正市场去年12月以来的降息预期，利率明显回调，十年国债最高触及1.9%，信用债也因赎回压力有一定的调整。临近季末，资金面受央行呵护，且MLF采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展；配置盘继续入场，债市收益率中枢下行至1.8%左右。展望后市，从国内经济基本面来看，尽管房地产对经济的拖累减弱、积极的财政对年内经济产生拉升作用，但仍需关注贸易战下全球需求的拉动作用、出口后续的变化、消费需求疲软、严格的化债导向以及土地财政紧张对地方政府的制约等多重因素影响，经济后续的走向。考虑实体经济回报率和融资需求的情况，降息仍是大势所趋，但阶段性或有外围的压力，二季度是重要观察窗口。政策方面，虽然会不断发力提振经济，但其力度、效果和节奏存在不确定性，特别是美国“对等关税”政策力度大超预期，将对全球需求和国内进出口产生一定的影响。预计收益率中枢明显上行的空间相对有限，经济或需要利率在新的区间维持一段时间换取更大的空间，同时财政发力也需要货币配合。短期来看，降息预期已有所修正，债市估值已较为合理，反而是对等关税落地后对出口和基本面的影响有多大，政策如何应对、降息空间有多少，仍需市场更好的定价。后续节奏上，关注贸易战对出口和全球需求的影响，以及货币政策降息降准落地的节奏及幅度、财政发力的空间、市场的风险偏好、机构行为等影响。组合操作上，本组合将继续遵循稳健投资理念，投资策略上积极主动，投资思路上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