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.969Z","mo":"2024年全年中国经济依然在低位平衡的过程中，尽管面临一定挑战，但在政策刺激的作用下，我们认为2025年经济会慢慢企稳。从海外情况来看，美国新任总统特朗普的再次当选，为外部局势增加了较多的不确定性，其国内高通胀、高赤字的情况应是特朗普当前最核心的任务，所以压降财政支出、通过缓解地缘冲突压低能源价格，从而降低通胀，是最合理的推演，这一过程中美国经济会缓慢回落，利率也将相应适当下降。当然，鉴于特朗普本人的不可预测性，美国爆发二次通胀就是当前的主要风险。  在此背景下，我们认为中国市场在2024年大幅反弹之后，在2025年仍将缓慢回升。牛市或者是科技周期回升带动，或者是经济周期回升带动，或者是两者共振回升带动。目前看2025年以科技周期回升为主，经济周期复苏为辅，整体预计呈现出交替带动上涨的局面。本基金作为经济周期类基金，将严格按照本基金的投资策略，聚焦在低景气、低关注、低估值的板块中，等待经济周期回升带来的盈利扭亏为盈或者加速增长。目前我们认为电解铝（不含氧化铝）、新能源金属、钢铁、化工、城农商行、商业地产、部分消费品是我们主要的配置选择。","fund":{"_id":3000000019888,"__csrcFundId":13262,"stockCode":"019888","masterFundShortName":"中欧周期优选混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19888,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:44.863Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"中欧周期优选混合发起A","fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"name":"中欧周期优选混合型发起式证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":10980126.13,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":10980126.13,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"zozqyxhhxfqszqtzjj","followedNum":7,"memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20920265","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1806238880,"name":"任飞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧周期优选混合型发起式证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1258129","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed32a7fea5b3eb0538e95","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019888,"sao":"三季度全球经济迎来两个重要的政策拐点：（1）美国开启了货币宽松周期，且财政保持宽松，当前负增长的耐用品消费和地产将会迎来周期性上行；（2）中国在低位均衡阶段迎来了重要的宽松政策，宽松货币政策提供了低成本资金，宽松财政政策提升了收入预期，宽松市场政策提振了社会信心。回顾A股市场表现，在9月底迎来了市场的普涨，尤其是非银、科技、消费等板块涨幅居前，强周期类板块表现一般。  本基金的核心聚焦方向依然围绕上游资源布局，我们对于未来1-2年的基准假设是：美国经济中的耐用品消费和地产将上行，中国经济中的地产和消费将逐步止跌企稳。由此，对于强周期性资产将保持乐观，我们一方面会保持铜、黄金、原油的配置，以应对可能出现的全球经济共振带来的通胀上升；另一方面，将积极关注部分在相对低位的内需型行业，如电动车产业链的碳酸锂，地产链中的水泥、电解铝、钢铁、焦煤、化工等，一旦地产和消费在2025年的某个时间里企稳，则相关板块的利润弹性会较大，需要从中选取资产负债表干净、利润现金含量高、估值低的个股。  本基金在Q3保持高仓位，继续坚持以有色为主配置，增加了低位反转可能的碳酸锂持仓，目前主要集中在铜、铝、碳酸锂、焦煤。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:22.966Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019888,"__csrcFundId":13262,"stockCode":"019888","masterFundShortName":"中欧周期优选混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19888,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:44.863Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"中欧周期优选混合发起A","fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"name":"中欧周期优选混合型发起式证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":10980126.13,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":10980126.13,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"zozqyxhhxfqszqtzjj","followedNum":7,"memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20920265","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1806238880,"name":"任飞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧周期优选混合型发起式证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1179220","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed32a7fea5b3eb0538e94","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019888,"sao":"上半年全球经济依然展现了外需强于内需的结构特征。美国经济名义增长有所减速，但下半年如果叠加财政高赤字、预防式降息落地、大选不确定性消失，我们依然有望看到美国经济在2025年迎来软着陆之后的再次增长。中国经济依然处于再均衡的过程，地产数据在相对低位震荡，部分居民消费数据有待提振升，但出口和代表新质生产力方向的制造业生产保持强势。回顾A股市场表现，上半年表现较为突出的为高股息板块，以银行、公用事业、资源、交运为主的板块涨幅居前，地产以及消费相关板块表现一般。  本基金的核心聚焦方向将围绕上游资源布局，其中有色金属板块会是今年的重点关注方向，理由如下：（1）有色金属的需求更多与制造业相关，与地产关联度相对其他资源品更低（2）有色金属的供给受到多方面的扰动持续紧张（3）海外如果软着陆并降息，将有利于金属价格；如果需求更好不着陆，不必降息，也有利于金属需求来支撑价格（4）中国的有色企业受到“国家资源安全”大战略政策刺激，或将集体进入到增储扩产的快车道，从而使得它们不仅有望受益于“涨价”，还有可能受益于“量增”。  本基金Q2提升至高仓位。本基金坚持以有色为主的配置，为了应对较为纷扰的外部环境，目前主要集中在黄金、原油、铜、铝。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:22.963Z","mo":"展望2024年下半年以及2025年情况，当前美国大选仍未落地，政策取向依然不明，但从周期规律来看，美国目前较为疲软的耐用品消费、地产销售、制造业都将在降息之后逐步修复，而服务消费会缓慢回落，整体经济仍然有望软着陆。当然美国经济依然无法摆脱高赤字和高负债的特征，必然无法长久持续，需要为可能的大幅波动作好准备。而中国经济进入到下半年，政策力度有望加强，政府广义赤字率将上升，在较为低迷的消费和地产领域进行进一步的刺激，这将帮助整体经济逐步低位企稳。  在此背景下，我们认为市场整体将低位回升，在立足于稳定防御板块的同时，可以期待顺周期板块的逆境反转。本基金下半年将坚持有色为主的配置，利用黄金、原油和燃气作为防御，利用铜、铝布局外需和内需的反转。展望更远的2025年，我们认为部分供给侧有积极变化的化工产业将有不错的表现，将逐步变成主要的配置方向。","fund":{"_id":3000000019888,"__csrcFundId":13262,"stockCode":"019888","masterFundShortName":"中欧周期优选混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19888,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:44.863Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"中欧周期优选混合发起A","fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"name":"中欧周期优选混合型发起式证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":10980126.13,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":10980126.13,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"zozqyxhhxfqszqtzjj","followedNum":7,"memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20920265","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1806238880,"name":"任飞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧周期优选混合型发起式证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1153109","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed32a7fea5b3eb0538e93","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019888,"sao":"一季度全球经济结构性特征愈发明显。美国经济中制造相关的PMI、地产、手机等商品消费从底部开始复苏，而就业缺口的弥合使得就业数据和失业率强于预期，工资增速虽然减缓但依然支撑服务消费保持韧性。中国经济中，地产数据继续探底，但出口逐步改善，制造业生产保持强势，1-3月份的经济数据实际上是超市场预期的。展望2024年，我们还看不到明确的总量趋势，但依稀可以看到全球制造业复苏、全球再通胀的可能性。回顾A股市场表现，一季度表现最为突出的就是上游资源板块，中证上游指数上涨16.1%。而高股息板块在Q1的表现也较好，以银行、公用事业、交运等板块为主也均取得了正收益。表现较差的板块主要是地产、医药、电子等板块。    本基金的核心投资方向将围绕上游资源布局，其中有色金属板块会是今年的重点配置方向，理由如下：（1）有色金属的需求更多与制造业相关，与地产关联度相对其他资源品更低（2）有色金属的供给受到多方面的扰动持续紧张（3）海外如果软着陆并降息，将有利于金属价格；如果需求更好不着陆，不必降息，也有利于金属需求来支撑价格（4）中国的有色企业受到“国家资源安全”大战略政策刺激，将集体进入到增储扩产的快车道，从而使得它们不仅可以受益于“涨价”，还可以受益于“量增”。    本基金自去年底成立以来，仓位提升较为匀速和谨慎，未来将维持较高仓位。一季度从布局高股息相关板块逐渐切换到以有色金属为主的配置，目前主要集中在铜、黄金、铝、电力、石化。","declarationDate":"2024-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:22.960Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019888,"__csrcFundId":13262,"stockCode":"019888","masterFundShortName":"中欧周期优选混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19888,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:44.863Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"中欧周期优选混合发起A","fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"name":"中欧周期优选混合型发起式证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":10980126.13,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":10980126.13,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"zozqyxhhxfqszqtzjj","followedNum":7,"memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20920265","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1806238880,"name":"任飞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧周期优选混合型发起式证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1075194","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}