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　　展望后续，宏观方面，油价成为后续影响全球资产表现的关键因素，以中东能源进口依赖程度看，中美资产或将表现优于其他市场。大类资产已快速在“交易滞涨”、“交易衰退”的演进主线中定价切换。后续资产风险偏好能否回归，取决于全球经济受冲击程度、全球央行政策应对态度两条主线的变化。国内货币政策预计仍将维持支持性立场，长期看输入性通胀压力未必会扭转货币宽松基调，不排除政策利率调降可能。二季度进入政府发债高峰、项目集中开工、资金集中拨付阶段，广义财政支持增速有望进一步抬升。　　权益方面，这几年市场经历过许多简单的未经证实的叙事，目前流行的是中东地缘摩擦带来的“滞涨”。首先这个可能性很小，即使世界经济有下滑，油价也未必贡献很大，很可能是大量的资源投入到了不经济的领域。其次一定的通货膨胀很可能带来消费的恢复。再次，最具有核心竞争力的企业会有最强的价格转移能力。我们通过买入便宜的、有空间和壁垒的好公司、弱相关性的搭配来兼顾收益获取和回撤控制。但是在市场不理性的时候，这种策略短期表现一般。如果将眼光适当放长一些，结果就会有所不同。同时，中国经济复苏的迹象日益明显，市场热点也应逐步转向多元化。新消费领域以及具备护城河的出海企业，仍是具有吸引力的投资方向，且市场对这些机会的认可度正逐步提升。　　债券方面，债市存在多重逻辑交织：配置力量、通胀预期回升、货币流动性宽松、风险偏好波动等等。目前成交数据显示配置型机构需求仍强，决定了债市阶段性调整存在边界。但通胀预期和宏观预期的潜在修复仍然难以证伪，超长端供给等扰动因素仍然存在，收益率曲线偏陡的格局或难扭转，长债交易和做平曲线应该作为短期策略而不应持有。利率绝对水平仍然不高，债券资产本身的性价比和中长期赔率掣肘了收益率下行空间。后续计划积极挖掘中短端相对价值和骑乘策略。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T15:41:41.073Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019718,"__csrcFundId":13768,"stockCode":"019718","masterFundShortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19718,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:28:34.740Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合(019718)","name":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"pinyin":"mgyxhb6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":296740259.92,"setUpDate":"2024-06-11T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":296740259.92,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020631","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122425258440,"name":"刘心一"},{"stockCode":"db20620140","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":810186570,"name":"侯杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2026年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1480936","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed31f7fea5b3eb05382e4","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019718,"sao":"四季度经济仍然存在总量偏弱但新兴产业动能较强的结构分化，分项看有效需求不足仍持续挤压企业盈利空间，以价换量作用锐减，社零同比增速下降较快，国补品类退坡较为明显。出口表现超预期，贡献来源于产业品类升级，贸易伙伴结构优化和市场份额提升。社融方面，企业信贷受供，需综合影响，仍持续有同比少增的压力。以中央经济工作会议为核心的年末政策部署路径具体清晰，货币政策维持适度宽松总基调，强调逆周期和跨周期调节。目标指向打通供强需弱堵点，通过扩大内需，优化供给来激发内生动力。后续财政政策有望保持总量韧性，增量支持精准聚焦于扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等领域。　　海外方面，美元流动性和科技投资叙事有所反复，对市场情绪冲击较为明显。美国劳动力市场还处在供需弱平衡的态势中，通胀略有失真但核心分项的普遍放缓也确在发生。最终美国CPI略低于预期，日本加息靴子落地，风险偏好重归。往后看短期联储的重心在就业弱而不是通胀强，因此对于1月继续降息的预期可能再次升温，推动宽松交易继续，美国货币政策的宽松未见明显约束。　　权益市场方面，A股权益市场配置行情延续，但短期波动加剧，导致市场调整的原因包括美联储降息预期波动、AI领域存在分歧、国内宏观数据边际退坡等。尽管没有出现三季度的大涨行情，但是指数经受住考验逐渐站稳关键整数位置。市场风格展开再平衡的过程，高端制造，红利，涨价题材成为市场焦点。后续市场步入重要政策观察窗口，国内外重要政策的变化成为市场风险偏好抬升的关键因素。债券市场方面，债市多空对于定价权的争夺变得愈发激烈，出现摆脱股票风险偏好冲击的迹象。宏观基本面因子效用回归前，市场主要受政府债发行供需及发行久期，资金面价格，机构买债行为变化等因素的影响。10年国债向上突破1.75%至1.8%的窄幅运行箱体，配置力量相对缺位对利率形成向上压力。关注中长期品种的反弹机会，债市配置价值的进一步体现需要等待情绪和机构赎回状态的企稳，组合保持中低久期配置。　　从投资策略角度看，本基金主要通过广泛的选股，基于对估值、位置、预期差及公司空间、壁垒、管理等多维度进行筛选评分。并通过自下而上的精准打标签判断个股间相关性，优先组合相关性较弱的标的以分散风险。对组合个股数量追求相对适中，抛开行业分散的传统理念，从全球、多维度视角综合考量其相关性。具体通过“广泛选股比较—弱相关搭配—交易再平衡”策略，实现风险可控下的收益优化。具体操作上，在2025年四季度，本基金保持较高的仓位，策略偏向自下而上选股和相关性考量，因此行业布局较为分散。其中配置相对较高的行业为基础化工、电子、国防军工、汽车等广义高端制造板块。 　　展望后续，\"十五五\"规划开局之年承载重要使命，更加注重供需平衡发展。国内经济有望呈现外需企稳，内需改善，价格修复的特征。出口韧性源于国际经贸斗争边际缓和与国内产业链韧性。大力提振消费政策有望对社零增速和通胀回升形成边际支撑。国内政策的发力方向总体与2025年取向一致，中央，地方分工方面更加清晰。中央支出稳定短期内需，地方支出加力推进经济转型的格局将逐步形成，明年宏观政策效能将会进一步提升。　　权益方面，中国有望逐步走出通缩压力，这一趋势主要得益于反内卷政策的持续、宏观政策的积极支持以及经济结构的不断优化。随着居民消费信心逐渐恢复、企业投资意愿增强，物价水平预计将逐步回归温和上涨区间，从而推动经济进入良性循环轨道。与此同时，中国在国际上的地位持续提升，参与全球治理的深度与广度不断拓展。这两大趋势将共同增强国内外投资者对中国资产的长期信心，从而市场估值中枢产生持续而正面的影响。这一过程虽然可能伴随短期波动，但长期方向趋于明朗，值得从战略视角进行布局。　　债券方面，基于支持经济和政府债发行以及应对人民币升值，央行货币政策预计继续保持宽松取向，但年初银行资金可能优先支持信贷。提升仓位久期需要看到更高的赔率，例如10年国债利率上行至1.9%以上超跌位置，或者出现央行降息，大规模买债等因素。维持反弹操作观点，开年政府债净发行压力明显上升，叠加债基赎回费等显性利空，债市收益率上行压力暂未缓解。结构上曲线形态很难大幅变陡，保持哑铃结构，短端品种在资金宽松背景下关注票息价值。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:11.370Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019718,"__csrcFundId":13768,"stockCode":"019718","masterFundShortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19718,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:28:34.740Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合(019718)","name":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"pinyin":"mgyxhb6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":296740259.92,"setUpDate":"2024-06-11T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":296740259.92,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020631","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122425258440,"name":"刘心一"},{"stockCode":"db20620140","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":810186570,"name":"侯杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1458412","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed31f7fea5b3eb05382e3","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019718,"sao":"尽管三季度宏观基本面稳中稍弱，但市场充足的流动性和全球风险偏好的提升使得全A指数充满韧性。权益方面，A股在创新高后有所调整，九月整体处于区间震荡。资金面正反馈是当前行情持续性的关键，目前来看仍偏积极。海外流动性及地缘问题继续改善，国内政策预期还有一定基础。市场风格进入再平衡的过程。一方面顺周期风格进入提前交易窗口、滞涨方向补涨；另一方面科技风格内部轮动活跃，行情从上游算力硬件转向泛AI分支多点开花。赚钱效应暂未明显回落，即使市场短期出现波动，也不会改变其长期框架。　　海外方面，年内中美关系继续处于缓和与谈判的稳定框架内，有望在关税、出口管制、市场开放、产品采购等领域取得新进展，市场沿着平稳的外部预期继续走下去。美联储今年首次降息25个基点，点阵图显示年内仍有50个基点降息空间，但部分委员存在对自然利率处于更高水平的判断，叠加后续展望提升了经济增长和通胀预期，中性利率长期水平可能向上抬升，后续降息路径和节奏仍然具有较大不确定性。　　债券市场方面，债市多空对于定价权的争夺变得愈发激烈，逐步出现摆脱股票风险偏好冲击的迹象。10年期国债的运行箱体界限更加明确，在1.75%至1.8%区间内窄幅波动。从定价内容看，市场交易主要围绕两个逻辑，一是潜在的央行重启买债，二是公募基金费用改革。机构对债券基金赎回力度有所减弱，但仍在持续。配置力量相对缺位对利率下行空间形成一定约束，关注中长期品种的反弹机会。债市配置价值的进一步体现需要等待情绪和机构赎回状态的企稳。　　总体来看，A股行情体现出明显的流动性驱动，结构性走强由技术突破、资金充裕与预期修正共同驱动。尽管宽基指数整体表现较好，但市场结构分化较大，涨幅主要集中在有色、通信、电子等行业。具体操作上，本季度中前期组合保持了相对均衡的配置，在9月组合调整为均衡偏成长的配置，并适度增了部分仓位。　　市场展望：权益方面，市场将延续结构分化、板块轮动的特征，在科技成长与需求受益板块中选择高弹性标的，同时保持对量能与外部事件的密切跟踪。10月市场逐步进入三季报交易窗口，中观产业景气度较二季度基本走平，预计三季报全A非金融盈利周期仍将处于磨底期。板块方面关注两个方向，一是科技主线硬件先行与应用跟进的传导逻辑，最终AI应用商业化落地形成“算力-场景-数据”的正向循环，还有政策与资本双重加持。二是周期板块政策引导+行业自发调整，在反内卷供给端效果被逐步消化后，后续机会存在于全球货币宽松、投资需求回升之中，工业原料、中间资本品、工程机械等都可能有较好表现。　　债券方面，维持反弹操作观点，结构上曲线形态很难大幅变陡，保持哑铃结构。四季度政府债净发行压力明显下降，在债基赎回费等显性利空真正落地以前，债市收益率上行暂时有限。如果利率冲高则关注中长期品种加久期参与短期交易性机会。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:11.367Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019718,"__csrcFundId":13768,"stockCode":"019718","masterFundShortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19718,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:28:34.740Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合(019718)","name":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"pinyin":"mgyxhb6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":296740259.92,"setUpDate":"2024-06-11T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":296740259.92,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020631","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122425258440,"name":"刘心一"},{"stockCode":"db20620140","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":810186570,"name":"侯杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1380630","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed31f7fea5b3eb05382e2","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019718,"sao":"上半年国内地产数据趋势性偏弱，商品消费在“618”提前和财政支持下增速较好，但可持续性或需要依靠未来财政补贴进一步提升。餐饮消费从“新八项规定”开始可能短期仍将延续弱势。贸易摩擦缓和后，抢出口期结束后集装箱预定量和发出量等数据回落至过去两年同期，出口增速持续性存疑。整体基本面走势维持“弱趋缓”，后续政策增量可能难以超出市场预期。财政政策方面，地方专项债3-5月阶段提速后，6月后发行速度有所放缓，国补资金剩余1380亿元计划于下半年分三、四季度分批下达，财政端整体定力相对较强。5月降息10bps后，结合当前财政节奏放缓，货币进一步宽松或使得资金流动性转向空转。　　海外方面，美国经济预期在滞涨与衰退间摆动，特朗普政策路径均指向美元贬值、通胀压力、货币宽松难度上升等。当前美股定价关税对通胀冲击不大、企业盈利增速预期较乐观，对应经济软硬数据背离开始收敛，美股随软数据一同回升。后续关注经济硬数据进一步回落且美联储行为滞后的风险，同时地缘风险反复扰动资金风险偏好。　　就权益市场表现看，上半年中证800从年初4100点回升至4262点，上涨0.87%，整体呈现N型震荡走势。自4月中美关税摩擦以来，全球权益资产完整演绎“关税灰犀牛”的冲击和逆转交易。6月12日中美达成协议，从市场反馈来看，边际影响逐步钝化。关税反转开启的risk-on模式驱动力不足，全球可能转向进入risk-off阶段。A股指数反弹充分反映关税冲击后的乐观预期，但未计价对基本面负面影响，资金量有限情况下主题轮动极快操作难度大。风格层面小盘股风偏强化，但同时波动也加大。　　债券市场方面，在税期、季末等利空因素涌现阶段，资金面仍能保持平稳，触发债市情绪，短端利率回落带动曲线陡峭化下行，利率老券和长端信用债表现好于长端利率活跃券，原因在于活跃券利率已经下行接近前低的情况下，市场对债市抱有较高的乐观情绪。　　总体来看，当前宏观经济基本面相对2024年末和2025年3月末并未发生根本性改变，行业轮动变化的节奏延续资金端行为主导，一方面股票仓位保持相对较低配置，另一方面基于宏观叙事保有一定的红利板块（以银行等为主），同时会利用部分战术仓位参与个别主题机会。从跨资产联动来看，对等关税、中美日内瓦协议以及美债危机，持续重创美元信用根基，美债无风险资产属性受到了削弱。美国债务上限打开后重启长债发行，同时赤字预算又高于预期，市场重新定价美国债务扩张的长期风险溢价。　　悦享回报上半年实现0.55%收益率，具体投资操作上，一季度跟踪AI+产业链的扩散情况，轮动操作主线赛道，同时保留部分红利股仓位，平滑进攻性头寸的波动。4月初在即将面临关税这一较大不确定因素的情况下，结合A股市场的业绩趋势和动态估值，我们综合权衡了其中的胜率与赔率之后，进行了果断减仓，减轻了组合在4月7日市场大跌中受到的冲击。随后由于短期估值快速回归，从赔率的角度我们较快填补了部分仓位。从风格上来讲，我们动态保持均衡的风格，目前结构对红利会有一些倾斜。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:11.365Z","mo":"政策节奏有所变化，一方面在于关税事件边际缓和，在事件悬而未决之前国内政策工具不会使用完毕，另一方面经济数据如3-5月消费及出口表现尚可，全年目标实现压力较小。政策转向“以时间换空间”的平稳思路，增量资源更多向科技领域倾斜。如增加3000亿科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度等。后续财政政策力度取决于经贸谈判进展和经济形势变化，可进一步提高预算赤字或者增发特别国债。未来财政政策的方向关注稳就业、稳企业、稳市场和稳预期方面。　　权益方面，考虑指数已数次试探前高的估值中枢，但均未有效突破，同时配置主线暂未确立，继续控制仓位、保持耐心。在高频数据多方印证国内经济超预期改善前，除非市场出现新的叙事，否则指数进一步向上突破的概率不高。随着政策与业绩空窗期结束，中报预披露和可能召开的政治局会议，有望对市场交易线索产生一定的影响，准备关注潜在景气行业方向。需要防范海外流动性收紧的风险，美国债务压力重新发酵、特朗普再次释放关税威胁等均会影响全球风险偏好回落，并对A股造成冲击。　　债券市场看，基本面数据整体边际回落，但幅度有限，这是利率在前低附近仍有阻力的重要原因。从大方向上看，当前市场的关键仍在于短端能否继续回落，进而带动活跃券创下新低。券种方面，利率3年政金债、长端与超长利率较优，信用债4-5年具备一定的性价比。","fund":{"_id":3000000019718,"__csrcFundId":13768,"stockCode":"019718","masterFundShortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19718,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:28:34.740Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合(019718)","name":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"pinyin":"mgyxhb6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":296740259.92,"setUpDate":"2024-06-11T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":296740259.92,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020631","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122425258440,"name":"刘心一"},{"stockCode":"db20620140","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":810186570,"name":"侯杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1345811","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed31f7fea5b3eb05382e1","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019718,"sao":"回顾一季度，我们采取了核心+卫星策略的多策略投资体系。其中，在保持核心配置处于整体中性的配置下，积极使用卫星策略仓位参与了智驾和AI等机会，期间在左侧对估值透支过多的个股进行了减仓操作。债券方面，以短久期债券配置为主，并择机进行组合久期的调整。　　从目前的国内基本面来看，宏观经济总体平稳，但结构分化。支撑在于基建重大项目推进较快，以旧换新支撑家电、汽车销售，出口货运受低基数推升，且地产销售“金三”成色尚可。拖累在于家电、汽车等中下游行业生产增速放缓，房地产销售的恢复尚未充分传导至房建施工，企业预期和信心有待巩固和提升。财政维持收入小幅放缓但支出继续扩张的状态，PMI等情绪数据延续边际小幅改善。　　从股票市场来看，整体处于区间震荡中。从全市场整体EPS边际变化来看，本轮周期相对前两轮弹性较弱，市场的整体估值处于中性略贵的状态，核心在于略被透支的估值是否能够被预期业绩消化。具体来看，1、中短期市场交易的焦点在于美国对等关税及其连锁事件落地过程的预期。2、两会后增量财政政策落地，基本符合预期。国常会部署加快加力清理拖欠企业账款工作，全国碳排放权交易市场首次扩围至钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业，财政部2025年财政政策要更加积极，提高财政赤字率、安排更大规模政府债券。国内应对潜在贸易摩擦超预期压力，增量政策已有储备且预计会对冲落地。3、中美关系处于平淡期，暂未展开有效地谈判，前期已施压情况下很难继续加码。4、从周期思维观察市场，需密切注意全市场业绩的边际变化。因此我们会根据中微观业绩趋势周期和流动性所反映出的市场节奏和动态估值水平，对组合进行平衡调节。　　债券方面：一季度利率债出现了一定程度的调整，是否出现有吸引力的机会，我们认为在取决于前经济复苏的节奏和银行资产端信贷投放情况。如果经济复苏低于预期，信贷投放较弱，那么利率债作为优质生息资产或再次被配置方银行端所关注。反之则利率债可能继续区间震荡。一方面我们会时刻跟踪高频数据，渐进调节组合结构；另一方面，也会在市场遭遇情绪或流动性冲击的时候，进行区间波段操作。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:11.362Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019718,"__csrcFundId":13768,"stockCode":"019718","masterFundShortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19718,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:28:34.740Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合(019718)","name":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"pinyin":"mgyxhb6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":296740259.92,"setUpDate":"2024-06-11T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":296740259.92,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020631","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122425258440,"name":"刘心一"},{"stockCode":"db20620140","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":810186570,"name":"侯杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1277047","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed31f7fea5b3eb05382e0","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019718,"sao":"2024年权益市场波动较大，整体收涨，中证800全年上涨12.2%。悦享回报基于多资产投资理念，以基准为标尺进行校准，进行积极的资产配置和投资组合构建，自成立以来截至年末实现1.11%的正收益。就宏观基本面而言，一季度经济延续修复形态，二季度经济修复不及预期。工业稳增长政策对生产扩张有积极支撑。从需求看，由于前期释放集中，内需增速有所回调。投资整体受累于房地产市场疲弱，制造业在设备更新政策支持下表现亮眼；专项债发行进度慢导致资金到位不足，因而基建实物工作量恢复低于预期。消费节奏上节假日效应明显，但社零环比增速持续低于疫情前的平均水平，二季度居民消费在商品和服务两端均出现动能乏力。三季度高频经济数据走弱，政策加码概率提升。9月24日国新办新闻发布会政策“组合拳”，兼顾实体经济和资本市场，叠加26日政治局会议，稳住经济增长回归首要位置。从政策力度看，货币、财政和流动性支持工具一次性释放，范围和力度均超出市场预期，有力地传递出活跃资本市场的积极信号，权益市场的政策底或已基本确立。四季度以来权益市场呈现震荡格局，国内经济恢复呈现分化，政策直接支持领域和出口表现较好，政策未支持领域依然疲软，限额以下及非耐用品消费依然偏弱。政策面，中央经济工作会议定调更加积极的财政政策。降准降息预期升温，叠加机构抢配债券，利率快速下行。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:11.358Z","mo":"A股方面，2024年四季度以来政府出台一系列的积极政策，但经济触底仍需要时间，基于EPS的指数修复预计难以快速出现。展望2025年，消费刺激仍然是有效的对冲投资下滑和出口风险的重要手段，我们认为2024年已经出台的细分领域的政策在2025年还会得到延续，且预计会有更多的消费细分领域推出新的政策。目前蓝筹白马估值处于市场的相对底部，红利类资产虽然累积了两年的涨幅但类比国债收益率仍然有不错的吸引力，在2025年全社会收益率下行的背景下这两类资产仍然具有较高的相对配置价值。对于科技进步，智能驾驶和AI应用在2025年预计有持续的产业突破，并将不断落地商业模式。债券方面，当前国内经济修复尚不牢固，宽货币导向的确定性较强。2025年财政将持续积极发力，因此需要货币政策持续配合抑平流动性波动。央行或将有降准和降息，上半年调降概率较大，下半年则可能根据经济情况与外部环境相机抉择。在 “正常的向上倾斜的收益率曲线”监管框架下，预计期限利差压缩空间有限，整体或将呈现较为陡峭化的趋势。","fund":{"_id":3000000019718,"__csrcFundId":13768,"stockCode":"019718","masterFundShortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19718,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:28:34.740Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合(019718)","name":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"pinyin":"mgyxhb6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":296740259.92,"setUpDate":"2024-06-11T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":296740259.92,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020631","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122425258440,"name":"刘心一"},{"stockCode":"db20620140","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":810186570,"name":"侯杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1255969","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed31f7fea5b3eb05382df","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019718,"sao":"三季度高频经济数据走弱，政策加码概率提升。海外方面，9月美联储降息50BP，超出市场预期，但经济数据及宽财政趋势仍然保持。美联储降息有助于国内降息通道的畅通。9月24日国新办新闻发布会政策“组合拳”，兼顾实体经济和资本市场，叠加26日政治局会议，稳住经济增长回归首要位置。从政策力度看，货币、财政和流动性支持工具一次性释放，范围和力度均超出市场预期，有力地向市场传递出活跃资本市场的积极信号，权益市场的政策底或已基本确立。展望四季度，欧美央行进入降息周期已经明确，国内降息空间趋于打开。尽管政策的出台到落地见效需要时间，但从会议召开节点及表述来看，稳增长基调更为明确。往后看，更多增量政策正在路上，财政方面将会安排扩赤字、增发国债，化债等长效资金，投向也转向民生保障和地方政府基层三保等效率更高的部门。后续还有若干兑现财政力度的时间窗口，包括10月的全国人民代表大会、12月的中央经济工作会议。重点关注：一是Q4新增政府债的规模、对明年赤字安排的表述；二是财政开支的方向，是否能顺利落地到居民部门；三是财政开支的路径，地方政府、银行如何与中央直达工具配合，提高财政刺激效率。当前A股和港股利好频出，内需相关行业的超跌反弹可能会持续，而且可能是主旋律。基于对基本面研究及政策预期判断，基金已在9月中旬加仓；后续关注是否大规模财政刺激计划逐步落地。具体权益策略上，紧密跟踪宏观经济预期差，寻找价值触底的优秀公司。当前周期认识和价值发现的思维策略仍有效，继续关注具有极低估值水平和超级稳健商业模式的板块，包括具有较好性价比的部分必选消费板块，消费降级因素已在前期股价中有所消化，后续或将受益于财政刺激继续向好；结合市场继续跟踪红利高股息品种如环保及公用事业相关公司；关注供给驱动下的需求扩张的板块，包括智能驾驶和AI产业链相关投资机会等。债券方面，在央行进一步宽松之前，长债利率已快速下行，后续宽松落地时可能是利多出尽时间窗口。考虑到基本面修复节奏以及资金面逐步转向平衡等因素，中期视角债市宽幅震荡的概率较大，对债市维持谨慎观点，策略上关注久期和高信用等级品种。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:03:11.356Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019718,"__csrcFundId":13768,"stockCode":"019718","masterFundShortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19718,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:28:34.740Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合(019718)","name":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"pinyin":"mgyxhb6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","setUpAssetScale":296740259.92,"setUpDate":"2024-06-11T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":296740259.92,"inceptionDate":"2024-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020631","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122425258440,"name":"刘心一"},{"stockCode":"db20620140","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":810186570,"name":"侯杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根悦享回报6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1179871","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}