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平稳，债券收益率震荡下行。投资策略方面，组合依靠持仓信用债品种获取票息收益，并根据债市环境和预期变化利用利率品种进行波段交易。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:02:46.103Z","mo":"近期各行业“反内卷”、雅鲁藏布江水电站1.5万亿投资等政策提振风险偏好，叠加外部环境转暖，商品期货、权益市场有所走强，债券迎来小幅调整。但我们认为，目前经济基本面尚未回升，央行仍然维持宽松流动性，利率上行空间或有限，但波动幅度将较上半年加大。“反内卷”带来的“再通胀”预期有别于需求端驱动的物价上涨，持续性仍需进一步观察。","fund":{"_id":3000000019396,"__csrcFundId":13170,"stockCode":"019396","masterFundShortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19396,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:20:51.271Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券(019396)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":2352935.37,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2352935.37,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bssyl60tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20513318","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":120223162000,"name":"鲁邦旺"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1340906","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3067fea5b3eb0536c28","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019396,"sao":"2025年一季度，债券收益率震荡上行，信用利差走阔。市场调整的主要原因包括：一方面，货币政策基调边际调整，资金面均衡偏紧，回购利率中枢上行至最高2.20%。去年底市场收益率快速下行隐含了对2025年降准降息的过度预期，而一月份开始的流动性超预期收紧、开年经济平稳增长、信贷投放积极和政府债发行前置、以及央行对市场一致预期进行纠偏触发了该预期的调整回归。另一方面，权益资产风险偏好抬升。Deepseek引发AI浪潮，A股和港股科技板块表现强势，对债市情绪产生一定压制。3月中下旬至季末，资金面整体均衡，资金利率中枢较前2月显著下行。MLF净投放之后，债市情绪有所好转，信用债收益率震荡下行，信用利差收窄。报告期内，组合精选信用债作为底仓品种，但受市场环境和组合久期影响，一季度组合净值回撤；3月中下旬信用债整体表现较好，组合净值逐步修复。展望后市，二季度债券市场迎来配置机会。一方面，在经历一季度的市场调整后，投资者仓位和久期有恢复的动力，债市配置力量增强。另一方面，海外关税对外需扰动较大，外部环境不确定性加大的背景下，流动性环境宜保持宽松，存在降准降息的可能。重点关注以下可能扰动市场的因素：一是，关税对外需和经济增长的实际冲击情况，以及国内在增长方面的应对措施；二是，资金价格中枢能否进一步下行突破1.80%。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:02:46.100Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019396,"__csrcFundId":13170,"stockCode":"019396","masterFundShortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19396,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:20:51.271Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券(019396)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":2352935.37,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2352935.37,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bssyl60tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20513318","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":120223162000,"name":"鲁邦旺"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1270593","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3067fea5b3eb0536c27","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019396,"sao":"2024年全球经济增长动能放缓，我国有效应对复杂严峻的内外部挑战，经济运行展现出强大的韧性，高质量发展扎实推进，社会信心有效提振。央行始终维持货币政策支持性的立场，保持流动性合理充裕，货币政策基调从“稳健”转向“适度宽松”。\t2024年全年债券收益率呈现整体下行走势。年初央行降准、政府债发行进度慢于预期、机构配置需求集中、市场风险偏好下降等因素共同推动债券收益率下行。4月下旬至6月中旬，央行提示长债利率风险，债市短暂回调后步入窄幅波动区间。进入三季度，经济金融数据显示经济基本面短暂承压，债券收益率震荡向下，8月上旬央行提示债券市场顺周期风险，债券收益率回调后继续下探。9月底政治局会议强调“坚定信心、干字当头”，权益市场情绪大幅提振，稳增长预期变化引发债市调整。年底中央经济工作会议提出实施“更加积极”的财政政策和“适度宽松”的货币政策，在“宽货币”预期下债市行情修复，收益率大幅下行。年末时点10年国债收益率1.70%，较年初2.50%位置下行约80bp。\t报告期内，组合主要通过配置信用债作为底仓品种获取票息收益，同时把握利率债波动机会，依靠积极波段操作获取资本利得收益。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:02:46.098Z","mo":"展望后市，债券收益率中枢下行趋势仍在，但扰动增加。经济基本面拐点未现、流动性充裕和机构配置需求对债市有支撑，但2024年末收益率快速下行已经隐含了未来部分降息空间，收益率下行有赖于货币宽松的落地。未来债市走势重点关注因素包括：一是一季度经济、金融数据是否持续改善；二是资金价格中枢能否继续下行；三是国内应对中美贸易谈判和关税政策政策的节奏和力度。","fund":{"_id":3000000019396,"__csrcFundId":13170,"stockCode":"019396","masterFundShortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19396,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:20:51.271Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券(019396)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":2352935.37,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2352935.37,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bssyl60tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20513318","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":120223162000,"name":"鲁邦旺"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1251451","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3067fea5b3eb0536c26","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019396,"sao":"2024年三季度，债券市场收益率先下后上。7月上旬，央行丰富货币政策工具箱，新增“借券”、临时正、逆回购操作，引导长债利率回归合理水平。7月中旬，6月金融和经济数据相继出炉，7月22日央行宣布降息，10年、30年国债收益率月末下行至2.14%、2.38%。8月债市进入盘整期。8月上半月，10年和30年国债收益率分别向下突破2.10%、2.30%等关键点位，随后大行开启大额卖债操作，引导利率向“合理点位”回归。8月下半月，全市场成交活跃度下降，部分投资者出于避险情绪加点变现信用债。伴随资金面逐步转松，债市收益率整体震荡。9月债市走出“V型”行情。9月中上旬风险资产表现偏弱，经济、金融数据偏弱强化市场降息预期。截至9月23日，10年、30年国债收益率分别下行至2.04%、2.14%。9月下旬，央行出台降准、降息、调降存量房贷利率、创设货币政策工具支持市场等支持性货币政策，政治局会议强调加强逆周期调节。在一揽子稳增长政策推动下，市场风险偏好快速转变，各期限债券收益率大幅上行，叠加季末资金面季节性收敛，10年、30年国债收益率季末上行至2.15%和2.35%。展望后市，一系列稳增长政策落地会提升市场风险偏好和对宏观经济走势预期，四季度债市扰动将加深。债券收益率波动幅度和方向需从两个维度进行观察：一是，稳增长政策布局和风险偏好改善后股债跷跷板效应下债市止盈和赎回力度。二是，财政稳增长政策是否超预期以及落地效果。组合操作方面，三季度受债券市场表现偏弱影响，组合净值波动增加，但得益于组合偏短的久期，净值回撤可控。四季度组合将以流动性好的中短久期信用债配置思路为主，辅以利率债波段交易增厚，耐心等待市场调整后的右侧加仓机会。市场调整时期尽量控制组合回撤，保持较好的回报与回撤体验。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:02:46.095Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019396,"__csrcFundId":13170,"stockCode":"019396","masterFundShortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19396,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:20:51.271Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券(019396)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":2352935.37,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2352935.37,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bssyl60tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20513318","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":120223162000,"name":"鲁邦旺"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1172710","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3067fea5b3eb0536c25","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019396,"sao":"2024年上半年，宏观基本面、政策预期与配置需求等多重因素推动下，债券收益率整体下行，信用利差压缩。年初，权益市场持续下跌带动风险偏好下降，宏观经济刺激政策预期落空，央行降准50bp推动流动性宽松，利率走出一波快速下行行情，10年期国债收益率从2.56%下行至2.27%附近。进入3月份，止盈压力显现，市场对特别国债等问题的关注度上升，债市行情转入震荡。4月份资金面宽松成为决定债市走势的重要因素， 1年国股存单收益率下行超过20bp，推动这一阶段信用利差大幅压缩。5至6月份，市场多空因素交织，一方面央行对长端利率的多次表态对现券市场情绪形成压制，另一方面基本面回升斜率放缓，资产荒逻辑持续演绎推动期限利差、等级利差全面压缩。报告期内，组合保持适度杠杆，结合经济和政策预期变化灵活调节组合久期，把握了债市整体上涨行情。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:02:46.092Z","mo":"展望后市，宏观经济和流动性大环境下，债券市场趋势仍在。央行降息操作显示其货币政策宽松取向未变，短端流动性价稳量松。基本面复苏仍需要更多政策的推动，尤其是财政政策有待发力。后续需要关注的几个因素：一是货币政策新框架下各种操作对市场利率的影响。二是政府债供给、风险偏好边际变化及经济高质量发展进程中的政策超预期因素多重共振的影响。三是外部环境扰动，如中美利差、汇率波动对国内货币政策空间的影响。组合操作上，维持短久期票息策略，保持久期灵活度，结合实际流动性状况保持适度杠杆。资产端重点关注短久期、中高等级信用债的票息价值，并根据市场情况变化，灵活进行利率债波段交易，控制回撤的同时增厚组合收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000019396,"__csrcFundId":13170,"stockCode":"019396","masterFundShortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19396,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:20:51.271Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券(019396)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":2352935.37,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2352935.37,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bssyl60tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20513318","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":120223162000,"name":"鲁邦旺"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1144544","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed3067fea5b3eb0536c24","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000019396,"sao":"2024年一季度，债市主要受到风险偏好及政策面预期变化影响，收益率总体走低，1-2月收益率下行顺畅，3月经历回调后转为震荡。具体来看，1月受经济金融数据持续走弱，稳增长政策乏力，权益市场快速下跌、央行降准等因素影响，开年债券收益率快速下行，信用利差显著压缩。信用票息稀缺性进一步强化，中低等级信用债信用利差压缩幅度明显超过高等级；2月份债券市场整体延续强势，春节前万亿降准资金投放，叠加银行信贷投放整体速度不及去年，超储消耗速度也偏慢，此外春节前流出银行体系的现金陆续回存，导致节后资金面明显转松，短端收益率下行幅度大于长端，利率曲线显著走陡。信用债方面，随着资金宽松，配置需求增大，市场资产荒程度也有所加剧，绝对收益率继续下行，但表现弱于利率债；3月利率走势震荡偏强，短端优于长端，曲线走陡。信用表现弱于利率，信用利差整体走阔。月初两会目标设定未超预期，记者会上央行释放宽松信号，无风险收益率有所下行。月中受出口等部分经济数据超预期、超长期限国债供给消息等因素扰动，市场止盈情绪推动收益率出现一定回调。月底跨季资金面宽松，带动中短端收益率再度下行。\t展望后市，预计二季度债市整体震荡。3月中采PMI上升至50.8%，环比上升1.7%。整体来看，外需偏强带动了3月PMI回升，而地产拖累下建筑业仍弱于季节性。目前地产链与非地产有所分化，地产链相关持续偏弱，也对长期增长预期形成压制，而非地产链有低位企稳修复的迹象，出口偏强带动制造业修复。建筑业和出口的背离也体现在商品的分化，黑色持续走弱而有色偏强。在地产和非地产部门分化的格局下，目前地产部门依然对长端利率影响最大。地产部门决定利率中枢，而非地产部门则决定了利率波动的节奏。一季度经济整体表现尚可，近期出现大规模政策加码的概率较小。短期关注政府债供给节奏及央行货币配合方式。\t组合操作上，以短端信用票息策略为主，同时加强交易策略，灵活调整利率仓位，保持久期灵活度。当前债市整体走势由前期趋势性走强转为偏震荡，但二季度资金面延续宽松的概率较大，短端票息策略确定性较高。往后看，由于年初以来利率债供给节奏偏慢，5-6月份潜在的供给冲击或带来扰动，同时近期人民币汇率贬值预期上升也构成资金面掣肘。对于经济基本面，在地产扶持政策仍在不断推出的情况下，地产投资和销售跌幅能否收敛值得关注，市场可能围绕经济低位企稳的预期进行博弈。目前市场收益率相对较低，曲线偏平。短端确定性较高，关注票息价值。利率债后续波动预计加大，可适度博弈预期差下的交易机会。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:02:46.089Z","fund":{"_id":3000000019396,"__csrcFundId":13170,"stockCode":"019396","masterFundShortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":19396,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T02:20:51.271Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券(019396)","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"name":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金","setUpAssetScale":2352935.37,"setUpDate":"2023-11-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":2352935.37,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"bssyl60tcyqzqxzqtzjj","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20513318","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":120223162000,"name":"鲁邦旺"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时双月乐60天持有期债券型证券投资基金2024年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1070624","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}