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谈判的进行，关税战的形势有所缓和，指数进一步上涨，直到6月底上证指数突破前高，且单日成交放量，日均成交额突破1.6万亿，市场交易重回活跃状态。上半年我们整体上保持了较高的仓位，成长和价值均衡配置，同时加大对个股alpha的挖掘。产业基本面上，AI和机器人依然是变化最快的成长方向。DeepSeek的开源让大家看到了成本的下降空间巨大，算力瓶颈有可能会破除，引起全球算力产业链的“地震”。海外算力需求超预期，带动产业链上PCB、芯片、电源等环节的需求大涨，国内企业在这些领域都有比较好的卡位优势，我们选择能受益海外算力需求增长的企业进行布局。机器人方面，短期我们看到产业链的发展遭遇一些挫折，包括特斯拉的机器人团队负责人更换，以及国内汽车行业的内卷等情况的出现，但不可否认的是机器人行业依然在快速向前推进。既然行业前景是光明的，我们就应当利用调整期的机会，对产业链上真正有能力的企业加以识别和研究，等待布局的机会。除了执行器的总成，壁垒比较高的丝杠、谐波减速器、传感器等核心的零部件是我们重点关注的方向。医药领域也是今年应当重点关注的方向，一方面医药行业经历了四年的调整，行业格局有所改善，另一方面是中国创新药企业经历了过去十年的积累，目前能力已经能够满足出海的要求，市场空间正在打开。除了市场追捧的创新药领域，我们觉得医疗器械领域也是先进制造值得关注的方向。医疗器械行业经历了集采的冲击，有些细分品类已经风险出清，同时这些企业还具备很强的出海能力，做了长时间的海外布局，马上要进入收获期，对于这些品类的龙头企业我们积极跟踪关注。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:01:51.650Z","mo":"报告期内产品始终秉持长期价值投资的理念，寻找产业链中具有行业长期竞争力、稳定成长能力以及估值合理的个股进行投资。未来产品将继续坚持长期价值投资的理念，在市场中寻找投资机会，合理配置行业权重，努力在控制产品风险的同时为基金持有人创造价值。","fund":{"_id":3000000018706,"__csrcFundId":13987,"stockCode":"018706","masterFundShortName":"兴银先进制造智选混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":18706,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:42.682Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"兴银先进制造智选混合发起A","name":"兴银先进制造智选混合型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050890000,"setUpAssetScale":10000000,"setUpDate":"2024-05-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":10000000,"pinyin":"xyxjzzzxhhxfqszqtzjj","inceptionDate":"2024-05-16T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019549","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122504248380,"name":"罗怡达"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴银先进制造智选混合型发起式证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1348474","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed2cf7fea5b3eb05337cb","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000018706,"sao":"2025年的第一季度市场波动剧烈，元旦后市场先是急跌，随后逐步反弹收回前期跌幅，随后震荡，整个一季度上证指数略微下跌，幅度不大。一季度市场整体表现活跃，A股日成交额基本维持在较高水平。回顾一季度，我们整体上保持了较高仓位，配置上我们注重选择有估值保护的成长股以及处在周期左侧的优秀龙头，同时在红利板块回调的底部加仓部分高股息个股。成长板块是我们一季度重点关注的方向，对于在一季度短期涨幅过大的成长方向，我们做了部分的减仓，对于长期空间大估值合理的成长股我们依然继续持有。宏观上，特朗普继续威胁对中国加征关税，同时也对加拿大和墨西哥进行了威胁，中国在对美方向上的贸易摩擦变得频繁。但同时另一方面，我们也看到美国在俄乌战争上的立场与前任总统截然相反，美国正在与他的欧洲盟友越走越远，这可能也是中国未来的机会所在。中国的出口产业链是未来长期的发展方向之一，我们关注因为关税摩擦导致下跌的优质龙头。跟宏观经济密切相关的顺周期板块，目前依然处于历史的偏底部区间，随着反内卷的政策导向越来越明显，我们关注产业供给侧有收缩可能的行业，选择优质企业进行跟踪研究布局。产业基本面上，AI和机器人依然是变化最快的成长方向。DeepSeek的开源让大家看到了成本的下降空间巨大，算力瓶颈有可能会破除，引起全球算力产业链的“地震”。Figure机器人的机器人亮相，给大家展示了“具身智能”的初步形态，大模型跟机器人的结合，可能会让机器人的真正商业化有所提前。无论是AI还是机器人领域，中国企业都将占有一席之地，我们需要做的就是沿着产业链的发展方向去仔细挖掘具备长期竞争力的企业，在市场悲观的时候加大布局力度。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:01:51.647Z","fund":{"_id":3000000018706,"__csrcFundId":13987,"stockCode":"018706","masterFundShortName":"兴银先进制造智选混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":18706,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:42.682Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"兴银先进制造智选混合发起A","name":"兴银先进制造智选混合型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050890000,"setUpAssetScale":10000000,"setUpDate":"2024-05-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":10000000,"pinyin":"xyxjzzzxhhxfqszqtzjj","inceptionDate":"2024-05-16T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019549","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122504248380,"name":"罗怡达"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴银先进制造智选混合型发起式证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1272132","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed2cf7fea5b3eb05337ca","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000018706,"sao":"2024年市场跌宕起伏，先是年初大跌，随后反弹到5月中旬，随即开启4个月的单边下跌行情，最后在“924会议”之后大幅反弹。全年上证指数上涨12.7%，分行业看，银行、非银涨幅最大在30%以上，其次是通信、家电、电子、汽车、零售、交运几个行业涨幅超过指数。跌幅最大的是医药、农业、美妆等几个行业，其中医药下跌幅度在14%，远远落后大盘。从估值层面看，2024年12月31日万得全A市盈率到了18.85倍左右，处于过去10年历史的55%分位，接近历史均值水平（18.9x），三季度年化的ROE在9%左右，PB在1.6x。经历了四季度的反弹修复以后，市场已经脱离了极度低估的状态，交易量持续维持在日均1万亿元以上，风险偏好有所上升。2024年我们不断完善自己的投资框架，建立了基于PB-ROE框架下的GARP投资策略，从竞争优势、估值、成长和周期位置四个方面来衡量投资机会。2024年我们从自上而下的角度，选择了一些大的产业方向进行研究：人工智能、机器人、智能驾驶、消费电子复苏、中国企业出海等等，并自下而上地跟研究员一起进行梳理研究，从中选择了具有估值性价比的品种进行投资。2024年最大的产业趋势莫过于人工智能的发展，从大模型到算力再到应用，AI正在深刻改变我们的生活和工作。人工智能的趋势对制造业影响很大，一方面制造业企业需要利用AI的技术提升自己的产业效率和质量，从现在的黑灯工厂到无人矿山、无人码头，背后都是AI智能化应用的典型；另一方面AI产业带来新的需求会刺激先进制造业的发展，例如大模型发展到一定程度，需要依靠终端进行落地，这时候就会对汽车、手机、机器人等新的终端产生需求，给先进制造业带来新的广阔的市场空间。中国产业正在转型升级，我们利用国内的工程师红利，可以在人工智能领域获得一席之地。过去一年，我们看到人形机器人领域我国的龙头企业在减速器、丝杠、电机等领域都有很深的布局；我们看到智能驾驶领域，我国的汽车企业正在急起直追，域控和线控制动转向等领域的企业处于领先地位；我们看到低空经济领域，全国各省正在加速出台相关的支持政策，产业链的企业跃跃欲试。对于这些产业趋势下的机会，我们都主动分析研究，积极寻找AI在消费电子、智能驾驶、人形机器人等方向上的落地标的。从周期的角度来看，过去一年大量的制造业板块依然处于底部阶段，具备戴维斯双击的可能。制造业的库存处于历史低位，同时产品价格也处于低位，制造业板块具备了上涨的必要条件。当总量尚未有机会的时候，我们在积极挖掘结构性的机会，寻找细分子行业有景气度的板块进行研究和投资。过去一年，我们看到造船、铁路、注塑机、电动车零部件、机器人等等细分板块的景气上行，也找到了不少可投资的机会。站在2024年底，我们依然可以看到大量的制造业龙头处于历史估值的底部区间，但是他们在全球都具备强大的竞争优势，随着基本面的复苏和市场情绪的回升，都有可能迎来业绩和估值的上行。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:01:51.644Z","mo":"展望2025年，宏观经济层面，我们预计房地产将触底企稳回升，不再对经济构成大的下行拖累；消费刺激政策的出台也将对消费信心的扭转有一定帮助；出口方向会面临美国关税的压力，但是全球化和出海依然会是中国企业坚定的方向。A股市场经历2024年四季度的反转后已经脱离了极度低估状态，交易活跃度显著增加，市场暂时没有大的系统性下行风险，因此我们可以对2025年的股票市场进行更加积极的布局。展望2025年，科技的发展将进一步改变我们的生活，这里面蕴含了大量的机会，我们的制造业企业在相关产业链上有重要的卡位优势，我们积极挖掘其中受益产业趋势且性价比合适的标的进行布局。","fund":{"_id":3000000018706,"__csrcFundId":13987,"stockCode":"018706","masterFundShortName":"兴银先进制造智选混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":18706,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:42.682Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"兴银先进制造智选混合发起A","name":"兴银先进制造智选混合型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050890000,"setUpAssetScale":10000000,"setUpDate":"2024-05-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":10000000,"pinyin":"xyxjzzzxhhxfqszqtzjj","inceptionDate":"2024-05-16T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019549","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122504248380,"name":"罗怡达"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴银先进制造智选混合型发起式证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1251096","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed2cf7fea5b3eb05337c9","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000018706,"sao":"今年三季度的资本市场波动剧烈。A股市场先是经历了7月初到9月中旬的单边下行，上证指数失守3000点，最低跌到9月18日的2689点，市场悲观情绪蔓延，后经历9月下旬的大反转，市场情绪急速升温。9月24日中国人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会举行了新闻发布会，央行宣布降息降准以及创新性支持股市的政策； 9月26日政治局会议强调要加大逆周期调节力度，促进房地产市场止跌回稳。两场会议极大增强了全球投资人对中国资产的投资信心，我们迎来难得的做多窗口期。全球范围来看，此前A股处于价值的洼地，具备上涨的基础。924新闻发布会之前沪深300的市盈率只有10倍左右，处于过去10年7%的历史分位值，同时风险溢价处于历史99%左右的分位，股票市场极具性价比。从会议内容来看，本轮货币政策和财政政策的转向，将会从房地产入手，促进房地产止跌回稳，有效防范和化解风险；同时还将缓解居民还贷压力，可能提高福利补贴，提升消费意愿，重塑社会的信心，防止中国走向通缩螺旋。中国的制造业板块目前处于底部，具备戴维斯双击的可能。制造业的库存目前处于历史低位，同时过去一段时间价格下行后也处于低位，随着内需刺激政策的进一步落地，传统制造业极有可能迎来一波量价齐升的行情。同时，资本市场过去一段时间对于内需的悲观预期尤甚，导致大量的制造业龙头估值无差别下跌，处于历史估值的底部区间。我们通过研究发现，中国的制造业龙头在全球范围来看都具备强大的竞争优势，龙头企业具备产品升级、扩充产品线、走向海外等多个增长曲线，具备很强的进一步上台阶的能力。例如化工行业，我国的龙头在聚氨酯、氨纶、钛白粉等领域都是全球最有竞争力的企业；机械行业里面我国的工程机械、船舶等领域都在全球有重要的影响力。随着基本面的复苏和市场情绪的回升，制造业有可能迎来戴维斯双击。先进制造发展精彩纷呈，长期成长空间广阔。我们看到我国的人形机器人、智能驾驶、低空经济、数控机床、商业航天、生物医药等一批新兴产业正在兴起，先进制造业面临新的产业机遇。从长期看，中国产业面临升级，我们利用国内的工程师红利，有机会获得一席之地。人形机器人领域我国的龙头企业在减速器、丝杠、电机等领域都有很深的布局；智能驾驶领域我国的汽车企业正在急起直追，域控和线控制动转向等领域的企业处于领先地位；低空经济各省正在加速出台相关的支持政策，产业链的企业跃跃欲试。随着过去几十年的积累，我国制造业的水平整体得到很大的提升，先进制造和产业需求形成较好的配合互动，各个方向不一而足。目前看来，经过前期的调整，先进制造的企业估值已经趋向合理或者低估，我们通过研究可以找到各个前沿领域具备卡位优势的企业，他们具备长期成长的能力。随着国家后续刺激政策的出台，内需有望得到恢复，制造业能充分受益于内需的复苏，我们需要选择其中性价比较高的，具备竞争优势的龙头企业。目前市场下跌的风险有限，中国资产越来越受到全球资金的关注，我们更应该抓住这个难得的窗口期，对长期成长空间广阔的先进制造业加以研究和布局。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:01:51.641Z","fund":{"_id":3000000018706,"__csrcFundId":13987,"stockCode":"018706","masterFundShortName":"兴银先进制造智选混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":18706,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:42.682Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"兴银先进制造智选混合发起A","name":"兴银先进制造智选混合型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050890000,"setUpAssetScale":10000000,"setUpDate":"2024-05-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":10000000,"pinyin":"xyxjzzzxhhxfqszqtzjj","inceptionDate":"2024-05-16T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019549","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122504248380,"name":"罗怡达"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴银先进制造智选混合型发起式证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1175910","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}