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　　如果把时间拉长到三年，我管理的多只基金表现似乎远远更好：收益不错且排名靠前。但相对排名只是对我的考核，与您获得的收益无关；收益看似不错，但年化回报其实与今年上半年的年化回报相当接近。关于过去三年，一些持有人还关注到了另一个事实：正是在三年前，我把基金的股票仓位降到了60%出头，并持续至今。对此，您既不应该假设我是看空市场，因为跟同类产品相比，更低的股票仓位并没有赚的更少；也不应该假设如果我把股票仓位提高到平均水平，收益率还能再乘上1.4倍。 　　怎么评价这三年？按流行的分类，我是一名“价值型”基金经理，即擅长投资低市净率股票，但三年前我正是卖出了一些后来继续大涨的低市净率股票从而降低了仓位，并且这三年还跑输了低市净率股票的典型代表“银行指数”，从这个角度看，这三年的业绩可能是运气。也有人认为我有一些“成长风格”，笼统的讲就是也会投资新兴产业有显著成长空间的股票，但最早到22年四季度、最迟在24年一季度，我又没能提前看到少数公司（尤其是少数港股上市公司）未来巨大的成长潜力，而这样的潜力不久之后就被市场发现，毫无疑问，我也不是合格的“成长型”基金经理。 　　以上就是我对过去三年收益和排名的谨慎解释，当然也可以有从更乐观直至最具煽动力的解释，每种解释都数据精确、逻辑合理。但所有解释都有不可避免的主观性和片面性，您不仅在看待我管理的基金，而且在看待所有关于复杂事物的单一解释时都得注意这一点。您也许会觉得这样太浪费时间，那关于股市和主要投资于股票的基金产品，最朴素的解释一直都是：股市有风险，投资需谨慎！","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.772Z","mo":"展望未来从不容易，展望股市的未来更难，在百年未见之变局下展望股市的未来更是难上加难。 　　未来可能是稳中向好。也有人说是牛市，这我不懂。几年前牛市时仍有为数不少企业价值被低估的股票，现在环境则发生了巨大变化。但和过去一样，我希望能继续寻找企业价值被低估的股票，同时继续维持偏低的股票仓位。 　　有人觉得牛市刚刚开始，我觉得更大的挑战刚刚开始。","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1346363","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d90","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"一季度少数板块的涨幅让人瞠目结舌，真不知道该赞叹科技还是感慨人性。本基金减持了部分受益于热门概念的个股——我买入时并不是基于概念，所以这部分收益应该归为运气——最终降低了组合的集中度。人人都知道，这是充满不确定性的时代；履行信托责任并且赚钱，这些基本要求也渐渐成为更大的挑战。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.769Z","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1276123","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d8f","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"报告期内各主要指数有所上涨，虽然全年看涨幅不大，但只有亲身经历才能体会其中的跌宕起伏。在与前两年迥异的市场环境中，本基金幸运地跑赢了基准。　　把绵延的时间分割成一个个报告期，这很传统，但容易让分析失去生命力，甚至也谈不上客观。与报告期相比，我更看重过去三年、五年。我不是想强调我管理的基金过去三年、五年的业绩如何出色，虽然有人那么说但那并非我的本意，我想强调的恰恰相反：即便经历了24年的市场修复，过去三年年化约7%的收益率也远远不能让您收获幸福；而过去五年的收益率也仅仅是达到了很多同行花一两年甚至一两个季度就能达到的水平。　　我更不想假装，在报告期的跌宕起伏中，我像别人描述的那样，紧盯热点、把握节奏，时而奇兵突进、时而力挽狂澜；事实上我做的很少：不变的理念，稳定的仓位，甚至连个股变化也不算多。在最终的投资运作中，就对企业价值的判断而言，我实际做的比我想做的更少一些：想做的时候条件不允许，条件允许的时候却不想做了；就应对多变的市场而言，我实际做的比我想做的更多一些：面对变化的股市中变化的基金规模，在不想买的时候由于基金被申购得买，反之亦然。　　但不管是想做的还是不想做的，都是我作为公募基金管理人应该做的。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.766Z","mo":"靠规律去展望有效性很强，尤其是在自然科学中；靠经验去展望有效性可能很弱，尤其是在这个巨变的时代。　　严肃的说，过去几年我甚至不太建议去展望宏观经济和证券市场。这些抽象概念对应的真实事物高度复杂、包罗万象，但最终只靠几个简单的指标以某种平均数的形式呈现。这些指标、概念远远不能替代每个人基于各自经验对其背后真实事物的体验，甚至可以说，缺乏真实体验的这类指标和概念没有意义。然而矛盾的是，科学中充满了各种指标和概念；这放在自然科学中勉强能接受，放在与人的活动密切相关的领域中并不完全合适。从这个角度看，在投资展望中没什么规律可以依赖，反而是有句老话很有道理：投资不仅是科学，还是艺术。艺术永远离不开主观体验。　　展望未来，我没有结论，只能分享两点感受：首先，多关注真实的世界，少关注抽象的概念，而专业人士基于抽象概念和规律对未来的展望，过去可能是教条将来可能是危险；其次，面对真实世界，体验虽然直接但也擅长欺骗，努力思考才能接近真相。　　三年前，我打比方说，持有人追逐收益，就像少年们追逐爱情。在真实的世界里，爱情远不是生活，而面对生活，一位文学大师在他那本关于爱情的伟大小说中是这么说的“最重要的不是幸福，而是稳定”。的确，面对将来，也许最重要的不是幸福，而是稳定！","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1257459","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d8e","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"季度快结束时，大家以为是熊市，但很快又以为是牛市。本基金的运作延续了之前的思路：面对低市净率大市值公司的机会，进行了一些尝试性的相反操作。　　在季度最后一天，本基金的净值才终于恢复到一年多前的水平。我想不用我提醒，经过这三年，您也已经明白，股市有风险、入市需谨慎。但我还是想提醒，不管牛市还是熊市——这里没有任何暗示未来是牛市或熊市的意思，并且也不是暗示投资得预判牛市或熊市——股市都有风险、入市皆需谨慎，因为人人都觉得没有风险本身就蕴含着风险。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.763Z","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00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be or not to be、生存还是死亡，关于所有这些问题，如果一定要有一个答案，也许那只能是，这取决于人作为生命的那种特殊能力——智慧的能力。　　未来是对资产管理行业专业性提出更高要求的时代。这专业，最终取决于智慧，通往智慧的路如同每个人都知道的，永无止境！","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=960166","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d88","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"一季度主要得益于少数持仓股票的上涨，整个组合取得了小幅正收益。在操作上，卖出了一些成长股，后来大涨；买入了一些价值股，仍然被套。说明在选股和择时上我都有很大改进空间。这些操作的主要背景是，在金融市场上，我们在关注AI进化，大洋彼岸在关注金融稳定。世界仿佛掉了个个，也许背后都是放大了的人性。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.747Z","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=886253","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d87","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"2022年，本基金的收益率约为0（本基金为我管理的多只基金之一，各基金因成立时间、投资范围和申赎情况不同，收益率略有差异），这显然令人沮丧；同时，本基金的排名在同类中处在中上，这似乎又令人兴奋。　　　　兴奋还是沮丧？同样的事，不同的解释，竟有完全不同的意义！这令人惊讶。但其实生活本就如此，甚至连科学也是这样。真正值得惊讶的反而是竟有如此多雷同的解释，比如，在股市里，上涨是因为独具慧眼，下跌是因为复杂局面；全然不顾相反的解释也同样成立。至于我的解释，我只是在跑一场投资的马拉松，三年前如此，如今也一样，既没有兴奋也没有沮丧。跑多一年之后的结果是：排名中上、回报尚可、波澜不惊，当前在这三点中我想突出的是：虽然过去三年的回报已经无法让人兴奋，但这样的复利未来将面临巨大挑战，这种挑战已经在我21年新管理的基金上开始体现。　　　　对22年投资运作的总结：在四月下旬市场开始上涨时，我认为会涨并且本基金会反弹乏力，但依然没有做相应调整。后来我做了反思：理念对我很重要，现实对您很重要，我有责任把理念和现实结合得更好，这对我们都很重要。这个反思让我在应对十月初开始的上涨时业绩有所改善。　　　　但这是巨变的时代，再多进步仍可能落伍，古老的规律可能被颠覆。这是科技狂飙的时代，机器越来越像人，人反而越来越像机器——虽然完全不懂，但我仍能深深感觉到，在很多本应是人擅长的领域机器已经能做的更好！如何站到巨人的肩膀上，再如何去创造，将一直是我心中最大的挑战。","declarationDate":"2023-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.744Z","mo":"全球股市的长期走势毫无疑问和经济密切相关。关于宏观经济，我却不知道该如何去展望。经济活动是人的活动，经济学终究是一门跟人密切相关的学问，但关于人，生活告诉我一些，文学告诉我很多，经济学告诉我的却几乎为零。当货币和利率成为全球宏观经济分析仅剩的主角，我不知道那种在遥远的西方、既与人也与科技无关的经济学理论指导的实践将把全球经济带向何方。幸好，就算哪一天这种经济学不在了，生活还在，经济还在，投资也还在。　　　　关于投资，人人都知道价值投资：企业价值等于现金流折现，Discounted Cash Flow模型而已。五年前，在价值投资的路上我还是一名初学者；后来，跳出投资我渐渐发现，真正的奥妙都蕴含在模型中并没有出现的时间t里，而在时间的河流里我永远都是初学者。　　　　时间很简单——它在我们身边，分分秒秒岁岁年年；它又在我们心里，快乐总那么短，痛苦却太长。时间很复杂——在人生的舞台剧上，每个人既是演员又是观众，从没有事先写好的剧本；如今，甚至看不清舞台上到底是哈姆雷特，还是堂吉柯德。这简单和复杂的奇妙融合孕育了所有规律。如果说22年，楼市是过去几年大家已经隐隐感觉到的趋势的延续，股市是过去两年的回报幻觉的终结；一年前这样的展望并不需要什么对规律的理解，更需要一些对生活的体验。未来，才真正复杂，新的规律正徐徐形成并展开，它必将融合现有规律以及最复杂的——人。理解规律实属不易，理解人可能更难。从前，我不明白，各种矛盾如何能毫无违和的共存在同一个人心里，比如，贪婪和恐惧；我不明白，贪婪和恐惧总在不经意间转化，极端时甚至融为一体，以至于无法被战胜，因为这就是人。　　　　投资也是生活。我生于1982年秋天的农村，那个小家庭想必因为家庭联产承包责任制后第一季水稻的丰收和小男婴的同时出生而倍感欢乐。如今，我已年过四十，开始老了，并且将继续衰老下去。但我终于开始并不害怕衰老，我已经明白：成长是一个过程，衰老是一个过程，它们恰恰是同一个过程！最终赋予这个过程意义的正是我们自己，而这些意义构成了我们——不是机器而是人，对世界的解释。朋友们，在投资的马拉松上，我将持续坚持持有人利益第一和专业创造价值的原则，希望为您带来长期稳健的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=868268","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d86","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"三季度在保持偏低仓位的基础上，做了少量操作。金融市场的风险偏好依然很奇怪，这一点在信用市场上表现得更直接：一些参与者对抗风险的努力成了另一些参与者放大风险的理由。在信用货币的世界里，若信用越被扭曲，价格信号也越被扭曲；我认为这是一条规律，这条规律正在全世界不同区域的不同市场——包括金融市场和非金融市场，以不同的形式呈现至不同的程度。  三季度，我尝试着做了少量所谓止盈止损的股票交易。但我已经意识到：基于扭曲价格信号而不是价值本身的交易没有意义。以后我要尽量少做没有意义的事。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.741Z","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=809350","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d85","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"今年以来在个股操作上，主要是在低PB公司上做了一些置换，在高PE公司上做了少量买卖。因今年的市场情况复杂等因素，以至于找不到严格意义上符合选股标准的股票，仓位较低是这个问题的结果，至今的亏损也是这个问题的结果。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.738Z","mo":"指数由几千只股票组成，指数的长期走势取决于这些个股的长期走势，而不是相反；每只个股的长期走势取决他所代表企业的价值。与之对应的，我以对企业价值的判断为基础做投资，我对投资的理解主要取决于对价值的理解。  价值，是最一般的概念之一，对价值的理解背后是每个人对世界的理解。对我而言，曾经价值更多跟时代密切结合在一起，如今价值更多跟创造而不仅是奋斗密切结合在一起，但价值永远跟真善美这些最朴素的概念结合在一起。  真正困难的是理解。我们都能感受光：红色代表热情，黄色代表温暖，蓝色代表宁静，这并不精确更不科学，但确实是一种能被接受的理解。还有另一种理解：光既是粒子又是波，这既确定又科学，而且得益于现代教育，如今初中生就知道这个足以让一百年前物理学大师惊叹的理解。后一种理解显然不是真正的理解，但却是社会实践领域很多专业人士的理解——既没有对一般概念深刻内涵的洞察和敬畏，又忘记了做为普通人的直观体验。  经济是最重要的社会实践领域之一——自上而下分析时，今天在全球范围内，通胀数据和货币政策竟然成为宏观经济分析仅剩的主角，让我不禁想起一位投资大师的忠告“世界经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧”。经济活动由人的活动构成——自下而上分析时，空间、赛道、景气这些词汇简单有力暗含情感的体验，但当这些词和时间结合在一起时，最终起作用的是规律而不是希望。  我的判断一直是：今年将是全社会对未来长期资产收益率预期回归正常的一年。这种背景下，任何理念都面临巨大挑战。我们必须走向创造，而有价值的创造都以对现有规律以及人性中某些部分的理解为基础，求真、求是则是所有这一切的基础。","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=781639","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d84","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"本基金一季度卖出了一些低市净率个股，买入了另一些低市净率个股和成长股。上述操作是基于对企业价值的判断，这种判断背后的分析框架是长期折现，而不是短期景气度。但和两年前的此时相比，无论是对价值股还是成长股，未来两年的收益率相对于过去两年可能会更低而不是更高。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.735Z","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=729012","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d83","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"2021年本基金取得了约20%的收益。和2020年相比，收益率接近，但在同类基金中的排名却截然相反，似乎20年的D等生一晃成了21年的A等生。  投资是一个连续的过程，过去两年我的投资策略一直是：  1）首先，相对于我做了的，更重要的是我选择没有去做的：不参与泡沫。疫情是一场战争，特殊环境下全球政策制定者都在金融上采取了应对措施，但更重要的是大众对这些措施的反应：完全可以理解是基于本能、而不是理性，从而有可能是过度的，这尤其是在A股、反而不是美股，催生了泡沫。对于我熟悉的很多公司，在很长时间里我坚信如下判断：股价显著超过实际价值。在泡沫最大的时候，我对此也毫不怀疑，一年多过去了，一些股价的走势验证了我的判断，一些还在验证的过程中。在泡沫最大的时候，我当然也怀疑过，我怀疑的是：在面对专业问题时，专业人士应该在多大程度上像大众那样也依赖于本能而不是理性；如今我的答案很确定：只有伟大最终才能融合理性和本能，但我们都很平凡，疫情阶段的经验并不普适。  2）其次，是我做了的：也是我很多年里一直做的，基于对企业价值的判断以合适的价格买优质的公司。从结果看这又分为两类：判断对的和判断错的。判断对的收益率有高有低，虽然收益率低的低于本基金这两年的总回报，但合计是正贡献；判断错的也有部分赚到了钱，但合计是负贡献。对于判断错的，我想再次强调那个普适的教训：这是一个巨变的时代，很多历史经验甚至规律完全不适用于将来。  过去两年里，我没有参与泡沫——这是正常的而不是不正常的；我做着很多年里一直在做的事，但面对这个巨变的时代以及突发的疫情，判断有对有错——希望您能理解，这也是正常的而不是不正常的。两年后的结果是：排名中等、回报尚可、波澜不惊，这三点如何排序非常主观，但带给您的体验也许也应该是正常的：既没有过冷也没有过热，正如同我在跑一场投资的马拉松，而您在家里波澜不惊得看那位选手在跑这场马拉松一样——虽然我们都更爱看百米飞人大战，但毫无疑问，投资、乃至人生，都更像一场长跑而不是短跑。","declarationDate":"2022-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.730Z","mo":"一直以来，我都尽量回避展望证券市场。对我而言展望意味着一种判断，而判断和市场本不相容。判断，是基于一个严密体系做出逻辑推断，更多是理性；而市场，是所有参与者的买卖行为形成了市场，充满了各种情绪，有贪婪和恐惧、理性和非理性，很多时候恐怕还是非理性的成分居多。市场只能是情绪的体验而不是理性的判断，但就体验情绪而言，不应该假定我有优势，因为这个职业首先需要尽量屏蔽而不是尽情体验市场情绪。关于股市有一句人尽皆知的老话，短期是投票器、长期是称重机：前者是本能和情绪，后者是理性和规律。关键是长期到底有多长？——很长，但也没那么长。  我想重申两个原则：持有人利益第一和专业创造价值，并结合实际谈重点。  1、持有人利益第一。这里的重点是基金管理人如何回应持有人的需求。持有人追逐收益，就像少年们追逐爱情：想要一份爱情，同时又完全不知道爱情是什么。基金管理人对这种追逐的回应可以是：跟通常状态下一样，你是少女我是少男（考虑到现在持有人和管理人的经验，这并不完全是比喻），在一起谈一场跌宕起伏但几乎注定是心碎的恋爱，收获的只能是成长而不是幸福；或者，这更少见一些，我与你一样抱有共同的美好愿望，同时我作为更成熟的一方，在这份关系中体现出关心和包容，甚至是引导和克制——而不是相反更多得要求你对我如此，虽然过程中也不乏争吵和失望，但最终也许能实现那个美好愿望，即便没能实现也能彼此理解互道珍重；又或者，极端情况下可以是，我作为更成熟的一方，主动接近了你，最后却表现得像肥皂剧里经常出现的被万众鄙视的反派男——你跟我谈感情我跟你谈道德、你跟我谈道德我跟你谈法律、你跟我谈法律我跟你谈困难、你跟我谈困难我又跟你谈希望，其实只是想用更多的谎言去掩饰那个最初的谎言，最终时间给你留下的只有疗伤和遗忘，而不是玫瑰和价值。现实比肥皂剧更抓马。社会大众永远从众，所以才更需要管理人坚持持有人利益第一的原则，这是情感是道德是法律也可以被笼统得称为专业。  2、专业创造价值。这是在技术层面，重点是对规律的掌握以及规律的变化。价值投资被简化成空间赛道护城河景气度等几个词汇，就像相对论被简化成E=m×c2，不能说这个公式不对，但我们绝不会疯狂到把会用这个乘法等同于掌握了相对论。奇怪的是这种人人都不懈驳斥的心态在学霸遍地的投资圈中到处存在，并且更奇怪的是竟然还被普遍接受。真正掌握一门规律并不太容易，然而未来对所有社会实践领域专业人士的真正挑战是：在社会实践中，人对事物的认知会改变事物本身，故而不可能存在关于事物的一成不变的规律；这是巨变的时代，很多历史上长期成立的规律将被颠覆，这将动摇专业人士专业性的基础。我们进化的方向应该是：从应用走向基础，进而站在巨人的肩膀上去创造。价值投资并不复杂，复杂的是它背后从自然科学到社会科学的那些理论（以我个人的观点，这其中反而最不包括金融学），以及如何把这些理论和中国社会，而不是中国股市的实践相结合。  朋友们，再次感谢您对我的信任！今年将是全社会对未来长期资产收益率预期回归正常的一年——对楼市，这是过去几年大家已经隐隐感觉到的逆转大趋势的进一步延续；对股市，这是过去两年高回报幻觉的终结——由于股市的市场化，这里的问题更容易出现也更容易纠偏；本基金今年的收益率也很可能低于过去两年。我无法说未来是资产管理行业最好的时代，因为毫无疑问对任何行业在一般意义上红利时代才是最好的时代，我只能说未来是对资产管理行业专业性提出更高要求的时代。我将持续坚持持有人利益第一和专业创造价值的原则，希望为您带来长期稳健的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1671790000,"market":"a","tickerId":90013,"custody":"中国工商银行股份有限公司","name":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"大成竞争优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1903,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:50.525Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2011-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成竞争优势混合","memoNum":11,"pinyin":"dcjzyshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20153064","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425120070,"name":"徐彦"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成竞争优势混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=707976","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed44f7fea5b3eb0547d82","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000090013,"sao":"当前的环境令人困惑，股市中的机会主要是基于短期边际变化由情绪驱动的交易机会，本基金三季度操作很少。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:08:15.726Z","fund":{"_id":3000000090013,"stockCode":"090013","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2011-03-14T16:00:00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