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大幅提升，财政端的增量政策可能会对债券供给产生较大影响。“反内卷”政策对通胀预期的影响需要高度关注。低利率环境下，债券市场对资金面变化的敏感度也在上升。整体看，我们预计债券市场震荡偏强的格局仍将延续，但考虑到当前绝对利率水平偏低，市场交易拥挤度提高，债市波动或将有所加大。具体操作上仍将坚持赔率优先，在区间震荡的行情中积极关注利率债的交易机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000017699,"__csrcFundId":12572,"stockCode":"017699","shortName":"广发景泰债券(017699)","masterFundShortName":"广发景泰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17699,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:38:06.870Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"name":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4199989262,"setUpShares":4199989262,"pinyin":"gfjtzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20290403","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":611148060,"name":"方抗"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1342440","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed2667fea5b3eb052d1ae","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000017699,"sao":"2025年一季度，债市收益率曲线整体呈平坦化上行，长端上行幅度显著小于短端，品种间利差分化不大。从具体走势看，1月，受资金利率超预期上行、央行暂停购买国债，以及权益市场下跌、风险偏好走弱等因素影响，收益率曲线呈现短端上行、长端下行的扭转变化。春节后，DeepSeek等现象级事件大幅提升市场风险偏好，叠加1月至2月的经济及金融数据好于预期、降准降息预期落空等因素影响，各期限收益率全面上行。3月中旬开始，央行公开市场操作加大对资金面的呵护，短端收益率率先见顶回落，随着权益市场转为震荡，股债跷跷板效应再次显现，长端收益率亦小幅下行。 报告期内，组合密切关注资金面和市场风险偏好的变化，结合利率债收益率曲线形态变化的新特征，动态调整组合杠杆水平和持仓结构。 展望二季度，预计债券市场的交易主线仍将聚焦资金面和市场风险偏好的变化。虽然债券市场经历了一季度的调整，但整体看绝对利率相较资金利率依旧偏低，套息空间较小，中短端债券收益率受资金利率波动的影响显著加大。二季度如果资金面延续3月中旬以来的宽松走势，预计收益率曲线下行空间将进一步打开，反之，可能仍将维持震荡走势。另外，市场风险偏好能否持续抬升，将对收益率曲线的变化产生持续影响。经历一季度事件冲击后，预计基本面数据的变化对市场风险偏好的影响权重将上升，二季度贸易战对出口的影响程度、国内宏观政策对消费和投资的边际提振效果都将对信用扩张修复的结构和持续性产生较大影响，进而影响市场风险偏好和对长久期利率债的定价。整体看，当前虽然做多债券的赔率在提升，但胜率仍有一定的不确定性。","declarationDate":"2025-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:00:06.940Z","fund":{"_id":3000000017699,"__csrcFundId":12572,"stockCode":"017699","shortName":"广发景泰债券(017699)","masterFundShortName":"广发景泰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17699,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:38:06.870Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"name":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4199989262,"setUpShares":4199989262,"pinyin":"gfjtzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20290403","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":611148060,"name":"方抗"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1266088","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed2667fea5b3eb052d1ad","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000017699,"sao":"2024年，国内经济处于新旧动能转换关键期，信用扩张增速放缓，宏观流动性保持宽松，为债券市场营造了良好环境，债券利率保持下行，且下行幅度较2023年有所扩大。全年走势大致可分为三个阶段：1月至9月，受地产数据走弱、市场风险偏好降低、规范存款手工补息以及央行开展国债买卖业务等影响，国债收益率曲线呈牛陡走势，信用利差出现分化，中短端信用债利差被动走阔，长期限信用债凭借票息优势受到机构追捧，利差大幅压缩。9月下旬至10月，政策面出现超预期变化，投资者风险偏好迅速修复，权益市场快速大幅反弹，股债跷跷板效应显现，债券收益率快速反弹，信用利差大幅走阔。10月底至12月，央行公布买断式回购工具，货币政策宽松再度成市场交易主线，各期限品种债券收益率冲高回落，债券收益率曲线呈陡峭化下行，收益率创历史新低。 报告期内，密切关注政策面和基本面的变化，结合对收益率曲线的跟踪分析，动态调整底仓资产中枢久期的同时，积极调整持仓债券的期限分布。组合坚持票息优先，通过对资金利率的跟踪，提升组合杠杆操作的灵活性。","declarationDate":"2025-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:00:06.937Z","mo":"展望2025年，预计债券市场的关注重点依旧是国内融资需求和海外国际形势的变化。国内有效需求不足的问题仍未解决，实体企业加杠杆的意愿依旧较弱，但财政政策转向后，政府财政支出力度加大，宏观经济的系统性风险降低，预计国内融资需求将由降转稳。海外的不确定性对出口的扰动加大，也将成为影响国内政策刺激和风险偏好的另一主要因素。债券市场对复杂的国内外环境和货币政策宽松预期的交易较为充分，当前绝对收益率已处历史低位，短期的波动可能略有加大。但从中长期看，在物价有待合理回升、货币政策宽松的背景下，债券市场预计整体维持偏强的格局。在组合操作上，将密切关注基本面和政策面的变化，保持底仓票息策略的同时，增强久期策略的灵活性，在调整中把握配置机会，并注意做好持仓券种梳理，优化持仓结构，严控风险，争取为投资人带来理想的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000017699,"__csrcFundId":12572,"stockCode":"017699","shortName":"广发景泰债券(017699)","masterFundShortName":"广发景泰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17699,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:38:06.870Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"name":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4199989262,"setUpShares":4199989262,"pinyin":"gfjtzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20290403","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":611148060,"name":"方抗"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1251829","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed2667fea5b3eb052d1ac","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000017699,"sao":"2024年三季度，债券市场震荡加剧，各品种和期限收益率的走势分化较大，整体看，国债收益率曲线呈牛陡走势，利率债表现好于信用债，信用利差大幅走阔。7月初央行宣布将“开展国债借入操作”，市场对国债交易结构的担忧加剧，利率债收益率全线上行，但随后受政策刺激预期落空、基本面数据走弱以及央行超预期调降逆回购利率等因素刺激，债券收益率再度下行。8月初海外货币宽松预期升温进一步加速了债券收益率下行，但随着资金面超预期收紧以及市场交易结构的变化，市场对债市的乐观预期出现分化，收益率随即快速反弹，信用利差触底反弹。9月中上旬，基本面高频数据的表现再次推升利率债做多热情，各期限收益率持续下行，但9月下旬政策面出现超预期变化，权益市场快速大幅反弹，股债跷跷板效应显现，债券收益率快速反弹，信用利差大幅走阔。报告期内，组合密切关注政策面和基本面的变化，根据各品种和期限利差变化灵活调整持仓券种结构，动态调整组合久期和杠杆水平，加大利率债交易力度。展望四季度，预计债券市场的主线在于风险偏好能否持续提升以及基本面修复情况。9月底，政策层明确提出“切实增强做好经济工作的责任感和紧迫感”，对民生、地产以及资本市场的关注度较高，有利于修正市场对基本面的预期。但市场风险偏好能否持续提升，取决于政策组合拳的力度和可持续性，特别是对总需求有直接刺激作用的财政政策刺激力度和落地情况或将对未来一段时间市场风险偏好的变化产生较大影响。另外，各项政策的推出、房地产市场止跌回稳能否有效实现、消费预期改善、基本面数据的持续变化都将对债券收益率中枢产生方向性影响。整体来看，债券市场在经历9月中下旬的收益率快速上行后，在基本面数据尚未显著修复前，短期将处于震荡调整期，当前收益率从赔率角度已明显改善，从胜率看仍需进一步观察，后续将持续关注政策和基本面变化对债券市场的影响。具体操作方面，我们将加大对胜率、市场供求关系以及投资者交易行为的研究，在胜率占优时积极进行久期择时，通过对收益率曲线和品种利差跟踪，积极进行品种轮换操作。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:00:06.934Z","fund":{"_id":3000000017699,"__csrcFundId":12572,"stockCode":"017699","shortName":"广发景泰债券(017699)","masterFundShortName":"广发景泰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17699,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:38:06.870Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"name":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4199989262,"setUpShares":4199989262,"pinyin":"gfjtzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20290403","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":611148060,"name":"方抗"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1174686","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed2667fea5b3eb052d1ab","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000017699,"sao":"2024年上半年，债券市场表现较好，收益率整体下行，品种间表现略有分化，利率债收益率曲线呈现牛陡走势，信用债收益率曲线呈现牛平特征。具体而言，一季度，受地产数据走弱、风险偏好下行、央行降准等影响，债券市场全面走牛，利率债收益率下行幅度超过信用债；二季度，受资管类机构资金充裕、债券收益率曲线形态受到高度关注的影响，信用债和利率债收益率曲线走势出现分化，利率债10年期以上品种的收益率下行幅度减弱，信用债则在供需错配影响下全面走牛，信用利差进一步压缩。报告期内，组合密切关注收益率曲线的变化，根据政策面和基本面的变化，动态调整组合久期，优化持仓品种和结构。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:00:06.932Z","mo":"展望下半年，预计债券市场的主线在于政策预期差和资金面政策导向。外部环境更趋复杂严峻，海外经济增长动能不强，国内在高质量发展的基调下，经济呈现“形有波动、势仍向好”的走势。经济转型过程中，上半年出口总量和结构表现较好，但地产、基建等旧动能弹性不足，总需求依旧较弱，一旦下半年受地缘政治影响出口增速下滑，政策端进一步发力的必要性将大幅提高。当前债券交易的一致预期较强，下半年如果政策面出现显著变化，预计收益率波动的空间将加大。考虑到当前物价上涨压力不大，政府债券发行加快，以及融资需求回落，货币政策预计仍将保持流动性合理充裕，但人民币汇率压力仍存，资金利率进一步下行的空间能否打开是市场交易的重点。整体来看，债券市场震荡偏强的格局仍将延续，但考虑到当前绝对利率水平偏低，市场交易拥挤度提高，债市波动预计会有所加大。具体操作方面，我们将加大对赔率、市场供求关系以及投资者交易行为的研究，通过对收益率曲线和品种利差的跟踪，在赔率合适时积极进行久期择时和品种轮换操作。","fund":{"_id":3000000017699,"__csrcFundId":12572,"stockCode":"017699","shortName":"广发景泰债券(017699)","masterFundShortName":"广发景泰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17699,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:38:06.870Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"name":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4199989262,"setUpShares":4199989262,"pinyin":"gfjtzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20290403","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":611148060,"name":"方抗"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1144960","linkType":"PD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2月，受地产积压需求集中释放、信贷投放靠前发力等因素影响，基本面数据出现改善，对利率债形成一定压力；3月初开始，经济刺激政策预期落空，地产高频销售数据再次走弱，宏观经济逐步进入主动去库存阶段，经济修复斜率放缓，叠加海外金融风险升温，央行货币政策边际转松。6月中，央行超预期降息，长端和超长端利率突破2022年低点。总体来看，上半年债市收益率下行，信用利差大幅压缩，收益率曲线先平坦化后陡峭化。报告期内，本组合积极加快建仓节奏，重点配置了3年期附近利率品种，并在完成建仓后，根据各品种利差变化，在维持组合相对积极的杠杆和久期水平下，动态调整组合持仓结构，以使组合净值保持平稳。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:00:06.920Z","mo":"展望下半年，地产链继续承压，出口面临的不确定性增加，国内经济弱复苏预计仍将持续。政策方面，6月降息落地后，一揽子稳增长政策相继出台，也印证了政策底基本确定。债券市场的交易主线预计取决于基本面修复情况与稳增长的政策刺激力度。从债市结构来看，息差、信用利差等均较上半年大幅压缩，债券的配置价值有所弱化。整体来看，债市胜率仍在，但赔率弱化，边际因素对债市的扰动或将加大，需要更加注重债券配置的节奏，拟以赔率优先，在收益率调整过程中把握债券的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000017699,"__csrcFundId":12572,"stockCode":"017699","shortName":"广发景泰债券(017699)","masterFundShortName":"广发景泰债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17699,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:38:06.870Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"name":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2023-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4199989262,"setUpShares":4199989262,"pinyin":"gfjtzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20290403","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":611148060,"name":"方抗"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发景泰债券型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=955394","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}