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年四季度，基金季度增长率为-4.91%，年度增长率为21.05%。相比之下，2025年四季度，标普 500 指数收益为2.96%，沪深 300 指数收益为0.21%，业绩比较基准指数收益为5.79%。本季度，全球宏观环境存在较多不确定性。一方面，美国降息路径尚不明朗，下一任美联储主席人选众说纷纭，日本加息呼声日渐增强，关税对美国CPI的影响尚未明朗；另一方面，美国政府于期间停摆，重要经济指标可视程度降低，市场的担忧增加，分歧加大，最终导致风险偏好与交易意愿相对降低。行业层面，上市公司3季度报告披露后，市场开始担忧人工智能产业的固定资产投入回报问题以及上市公司当期资产负债表的稳健性问题，人工智能产业链相关板块，包括清洁能源、储能、电力设备等在内，出现一定程度的回调，中小市值公司回调幅度更大。本季度，美股主要指数呈现出高位震荡的走势，并数次在关键经济指标或重要财报公布之后出现明显调整。受此影响，基金中部分持仓出现了不同程度的回撤，使得基金在本季度未能取得亮眼表现。为了应对此情况，一方面，我们维持相对谨慎的操作思路，注重基金整体仓位与流动性的同时，严控中小市值与高波动公司的敞口，以期降低波动性并严控回撤。另一方面，我们增加了新能源与电力设备领域大市值优质企业的权重，并基于人工智能带来的清洁能源供电缺口与全球电力设备投资周期复兴两条主线，积极关注储能与电池上下游、输配电网与数据中心所需电力设备等领域。同时，我们维持对周期性工业领域的配置，这主要基于对经济软着陆及弱复苏的预期。展望2026年，我们认为，关税对CPI的传导与降息节奏依旧是重要的宏观指标。尽管在本季度经历了波动，但我们对新能源与电力设备领域的长期走势的看法并未改变。随着未来融资成本下降及产业推进，市场的风险偏好与乐观情绪有望重拾。我们也观察到，清洁能源板块与电力设备板块在估值调整后重现了一些机会。待市场核心主线明朗、降息预期一致后将做出积极应对。本基金A类产品报告期内净值表现为-4.89%,同期业绩基准表现为5.79%；本基金C类产品报告期内净值表现为-4.94%,同期业绩基准表现为5.79%。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:54.623Z","fund":{"_id":3000000017071,"__csrcFundId":13228,"stockCode":"017071","masterFundShortName":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式（QDII）","fundSecondLevel":"QDII","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17071,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:23:12.108Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式（QDII）(017071)","fundCollectionId":4000050340000,"name":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式证券投资基金（QDII）","setUpAssetScale":44542287.14,"setUpDate":"2023-11-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":44542287.14,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"swlxqqxnygpxfqszqtzjj(qdii)","followedNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020608","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81826250710,"name":"胡睿喆"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式证券投资基金（QDII）2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1460128","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed21e7fea5b3eb0528e43","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000017071,"sao":"2025年三季度，本基金取得季度收益17.06%，成立以来收益38.66%。相比之下，三季度标普500指数收益为7.79%，沪深300指数收益为17.90%，业绩比较基准收益为25.13%。本季度全球股票市场延续了上季度的反弹态势，趋势性行情特征较为明显，基金净值也依托这一市场环境实现了稳步上行。不过，进入九月第一周后，业绩比较基准指数呈现加速上涨趋势，由于我们对基准成分股未进行显著的针对性加仓，导致基金在三季度最后三周的表现落后于业绩比较基准，最终影响了整个季度的相对收益表现。站在当前时间节点回望，2025年至今的市场环境为投资提供了较好的土壤：上半年，我们通过对宏观经济与市场趋势的研判，在复杂的市场环境中把握了市场机会，为基金积累了一定收益。但需要客观说明的是，当前标普500指数接近6800点，超出了我们年初对美股全年的预期。从整体市场估值与短期潜在回报的匹配度来看，美股的风险收益比吸引力有所下降，需等待契机。此外，板块间的分化态势也是我们重点关注的市场特征：当前美股市场呈现少数个股领涨、多数个股表现平淡的格局，这种结构性差异与4月市场上行拐点出现时的普涨行情形成鲜明对比，我们认为需关注此类分化带来的潜在影响。基于上述判断，在9月下半月，我们将基金的短期战术目标调整为“控制潜在回撤幅度”，这一调整使得基金投资组合的风险敞口有所降低，进而影响了市场加速上行阶段的潜在收益。虽然相对跑输的结果并不理想，但我们将其视为在特定市场环境下，为严控组合回撤而付出的战术性成本——在追求基金净值稳步上行的前提下，这种阶段性的让步是基金平衡短期回报与长期风险的主动选择。展望未来，目前基金持有的较高现金仓位，为我们把握未来市场机会预留了操作空间。若后续市场估值回归至我们认为更合理的区间，基金将择机对看好的标的进行布局。后续我们也将继续密切跟踪宏观经济数据、政策变化与市场情绪，以严谨的研究为基础，持续优化投资组合，力争为投资人实现长期稳健的回报。本基金A类产品报告期内净值表现为17.06%,同期业绩基准表现为25.13%；本基金C类产品报告期内净值表现为17.01%,同期业绩基准表现为25.13%。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:54.620Z","fund":{"_id":3000000017071,"__csrcFundId":13228,"stockCode":"017071","masterFundShortName":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式（QDII）","fundSecondLevel":"QDII","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17071,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:23:12.108Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式（QDII）(017071)","fundCollectionId":4000050340000,"name":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式证券投资基金（QDII）","setUpAssetScale":44542287.14,"setUpDate":"2023-11-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":44542287.14,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"swlxqqxnygpxfqszqtzjj(qdii)","followedNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020608","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81826250710,"name":"胡睿喆"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式证券投资基金（QDII）2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1374846","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed21e7fea5b3eb0528e42","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000017071,"sao":"在2024年年度报告中，我们曾以“动物精神”一词概括2025年的市场展望。彼时，我们判断：若财政政策保持克制、监管取向温和，亲商环境或可延续过去两年的美股表现。这一框架在 2024 年四季度和 2025 年一季度大体有效，然而 4 月贸易政策的骤然转向，令基金遭遇成立以来的显著回撤。事后复盘，我们低估了政策对情绪影响的力度，组合对尾部风险的抵御能力有待进一步优化与增强。值得庆幸的是，当市场情绪走低时，企业与投资者的“动物精神”并未离场，在政策逆转、盈利逐渐稳固与经济数据向好的催化下，基金净值迅速收复失地并创出新高。这段经历或提醒我们：市场韧性往往诞生于对逆境的过度贴现，而非对顺境的线性外推。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:54.617Z","mo":"展望 2025 年下半年，经济与企业盈利尚未释放全部潜能，但复苏之路仍显蹒跚。我们无意为市场贴上精确概率标签——那更像是一种叙事安慰，而非投资指南。更可能的剧本是一场拉锯：若市场情绪持续回暖，贸易政策或趋于强硬，稳增长工具也或将暂存锦囊；反之，若数据走弱、形势不及预期，收缩性措施或有望边际收敛。2025年下半年，我们预计全球“调结构”与“稳增长”的权衡宛如一场拔河，虽然市场调整仍非基准情形，却也或仍存阶段性的心理负担。对股票市场而言，这意味着市场表现仍值得期待，只是途中仍显颠簸。我们将继续对长期价值的坚守，并在趋势和韧性中寻找答案。","fund":{"_id":3000000017071,"__csrcFundId":13228,"stockCode":"017071","masterFundShortName":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式（QDII）","fundSecondLevel":"QDII","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17071,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:23:12.108Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式（QDII）(017071)","fundCollectionId":4000050340000,"name":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式证券投资基金（QDII）","setUpAssetScale":44542287.14,"setUpDate":"2023-11-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":44542287.14,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"swlxqqxnygpxfqszqtzjj(qdii)","followedNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020608","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81826250710,"name":"胡睿喆"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式证券投资基金（QDII）2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1344321","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed21e7fea5b3eb0528e41","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000017071,"sao":"我们认为，2025年，“动物精神”可能将继续推动美股市场的表现。“动物精神”一词最早由凯恩斯提出，指的是在经济活动中，人们所展现出的信心、乐观情绪和冒险精神，这些因素深刻影响着市场和经济的动态变化。它是一种驱动行动的冲动，是创新与投资的动力，最终体现为经济规模的扩张。这些动力并非基于已计算的自身利益，而是源自深层的动机变化——这种力量是所有行动的源泉。从个人层面来看，它表现为某一天赖床，而另一天却早起的微小差异；从宏观经济层面来看，它体现在所有细微决策的累积，最终推动经济活动形成良性循环。美国股市连续两年涨幅超过20%，这是自上世纪90年代末以来的首次。企业在经历了2020-2021年过度招聘和支出后于2022年大幅削减成本，并在2023年和2024年获得了回报。在名义GDP增长的背景下，销售持续增长，且因经营杠杆的提升，利润率也在扩张。这一变化也在整体经济生产率的上升中得到了体现。在此背景下，2024年的一个显著主题是市场向上驱动的重心已开始转向更多板块，而不再过于依赖少数行业。在11个板块中，有10个实现了上涨，其中7个板块的涨幅超过了两位数。其中小盘股、中盘股、金融、通信服务和工业板块的出色表现，更是市场底层力量健康的体现。自1950年到2024年，标普500年均回报率约为9%。然而，值得注意的是，历史上年回报率很少会精确落在这一范围内。在市场上行时期，动物精神往往增强回报。从过去75年的数据来看，1950年后，标普500指数年回报率在8%至10%之间的情况仅发生过四次。事实上，市场上行时期的年平均涨幅超过了19%，而市场下跌时的年平均幅度接近14%。2025年，在稳健经济推动下，我们预计向好趋势或将持续，可能由小盘股和中盘股主导，工业等周期性行业也可能成为中坚力量。我们的基金会继续维持在这些方向的投资。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:54.614Z","mo":"不过，鉴于2024年标普500指数的最大回撤幅度仅为8.5%，在接下来的一年出现回调的概率可能会上升。从统计学的角度来看，存在两个对股票市场的担忧：首先，经历了连续两年的上涨，标普500指数在这轮行情的前两年（2022年10月-2024年10月）上涨超过62%。这种情况并不罕见，但这也意味着，第三年可能呈现放缓、调整。回顾自1950年以来的八次牛市，第三年的平均涨幅仅为2.1%。不过值得庆幸的是，第三年过后，通常会迎来较为强劲的增长；第二，估值虽然并非择时指示器，却是长期投资组合和战略规划中的重要考量因素。在市场轮动或扩展的时期，观察估值有助于发现被忽视的市场领域。考虑到标普500指数的上涨，有一部分股票估值已变得较为昂贵。标普500指数的预期市盈率超过22，接近过去25年中的相对高位。但也有市场的其他个股，尤其是一些非大型股票，依然定价相对合理。衡量股票相对于其历史溢价或折价的偏离程度时我们发现，工业等周期性行业存在着更多机会。最后，“动物精神”虽然并非一种严格的经济论证，却是一个有用的观察。经济和市场均受到良性和恶性循环的影响，乐观情绪往往孕育更多乐观，而悲观情绪则加剧悲观。我们认为，目前经济活动存在一个良性循环的机会，这有助于维持强劲的经济增长。在经历了疫情冲击和通货膨胀之后，企业渴望在一个更为友好的经营环境中运作。货币和财政政策在实现这一目标方面发挥着至关重要的作用。“动物精神”的复苏为新的一年提供了强有力的背景，我们期待采用一种具备韧性的组合构建方法，以期应对周期带来的机遇和挑战。","fund":{"_id":3000000017071,"__csrcFundId":13228,"stockCode":"017071","masterFundShortName":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式（QDII）","fundSecondLevel":"QDII","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":17071,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:23:12.108Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式（QDII）(017071)","fundCollectionId":4000050340000,"name":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式证券投资基金（QDII）","setUpAssetScale":44542287.14,"setUpDate":"2023-11-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpShares":44542287.14,"inceptionDate":"2023-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"swlxqqxnygpxfqszqtzjj(qdii)","followedNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020608","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81826250710,"name":"胡睿喆"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"申万菱信全球新能源股票型发起式证券投资基金（QDII）2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1252345","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed21e7fea5b3eb0528e40","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000017071,"sao":"在报告期内，美国经济尽管信贷标准更为严格，物价上涨和借款成本升高，合格工人供应减少，但就业和消费数据仍然向好，通胀率持续高于预期水平。即使第一季度出现放缓迹象，但年度内出现经济衰退风险的可能性仍然较低。市场接受了“较长时间维持较高利率”的观点，这一观点的持续时间可能比最初预期的长。不过，美联储2024年降息的迹象依然显著。在美国和全球资本市场及经济体中，美联储的降息预期可能产生广泛而普遍的积极影响。从投资的角度看，美国第一季度的财报季很可能是全年的一个样板：一方面，利润显著增长，盈利状况普遍改善；另一方面，市场估值略显高估，盈利预期可能过于乐观。因此，主动管理和高质量投资、平衡成长和价值，关注大型企业，依然是较为明智的选择。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:54.612Z","mo":"虽然美国股市表现相对强劲，但股市集中度日益受到关注。自2023年初以来，标普500指数回报的60%归因于三家公司，而七大头部股票现在占据了指数的32%。在国家地区上，美国公司在全球股票市场中的份额接近64%。这种领先地位并非新鲜事物：在过去15年中，宏观经济因素相对有利于美国市场。与此同时，美国公司得益于2017年的减税措施，其盈利增长明显超过了其他地区，得益于更快的利润率和更强的营收增长。宏观经济的强劲表现和行业成长预期结合，使得投资者较难忽视表现较好的公司。然而，我们认为几个因素可能导致股市回报更加广泛化。首先，当今股市中的估值差异显而易见。在标普500指数中，前十大股票的12个月前瞻性PE为28倍，而其他股票为19倍。然而，如果某些行业高预期最终被证明不成立，相对于其他行业，这些超大型市值公司的回落情况更有可能发生。此外，如果降息预期落地，也可能导致收益提升的泛化，典型的情况或将来自于之前受困于高利率的小型企业改善局势。因此，我们预计美国股市的回报不会再过度依赖于少数几个公司。此外，2024年美国大选也为投资者增加了额外的不确定性。然而我们无法确定谁将赢得选举。通常情况下，经济上的发展通常比白宫内正在发生的事件对市场更为重要。尽管两党之间存在明显的政策差异，但我们仍然较为谨慎地调整投资组合的运作。首先，政治世界变幻莫测。离11月的选举还有一段时间，很多事情可能会有所变化，选举结果仍然是一个巨大的未知数。其次，即使现在投资者对选举结果感到有信心，但在竞选活动中的承诺与最终能够实现的常常有很大差异。最后，即使投资者对选举结果和未来政策方向感到乐观，市场仍然会受到众多其他因素的影响。","fund":{"_id":30000000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