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即获取收益的最有效的路径应该是规避永久性亏损。投资中如何产生永久性亏损？股票投资的维度，比如快速变化的行业被新技术彻底颠覆，竞争力弱的公司被优秀同行淘汰，企业高杠杆，高估值买入导致过长时间的估值消化……转债投资的维度，比如信用风险、高于强赎价购买个券等等。站在持有人的角度，因为资管行业的信息不对称的问题，以及自然人容易受情绪的影响，申购赎回时点高度不确定。哪怕暂时的下跌，也容易造成不理性申赎的投资者的永久性亏损。为了解决这一难题，苛求每一位持有人能够给予彻底的信任，并不是一个理性的选择，只是一种理想主义的奢望。务实角度出发，通过自己的努力尽力控制波动，慢慢变成更优先的选项。希望会有更好的绝对收益给到每一位投资人。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-31T19:56:37.777Z","mo":"我们的投资策略和理念是稳定的。股票部分，坚持高质量、低估值和逆向投资的风格；转债部分，坚持在中低价中寻找被低估的期权。从基金的运作模式来说，我们坚持长期绝对收益的目标。市场短期难以预测，但从各权益类资产的性价比角度，我们倾向于认为受小盘和流动性催化的资产会面临比较大的风险，反而过去几年不受待见的老登资产会有更高的性价比。我们倾向于逆着市场行动，争取依然会有好的回报给持有人。","fund":{"_id":3000000016682,"__csrcFundId":12762,"stockCode":"016682","shortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合(016682)","masterFundShortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16682,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:10:26.093Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"name":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":148308108.37,"setUpShares":148308108.37,"pinyin":"thgylgycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722436","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":407192060,"name":"杜广"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1455393","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1ee7fea5b3eb0525bdb","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016682,"sao":"三季度，AI相关的方向热火朝天，我们的净值却基本没有太大变化。市场以老登、中登、小登来划分股票，我们眼中可能只有商业模式的优劣、护城河的深浅、价格相对于价值的溢价与折扣。当我们仔细而苛刻地去评估以上几个因素的确定性，持仓也不可避免地落到老登的范畴。然而，事情总有两面性：这既可以说是对原则的坚持；也可以说是僵化的价值投资，在心态的开放性和包容性上出了问题，没有做到及时地进化。我们又如何保证自己是前者，而不是后者呢？也许只有时间才能告诉我们答案。如果说有什么收获，三季度对我们尤为重要的启示是商业世界演绎的复杂性和动态性，需要我们在坚守能力圈和拓展能力圈之间做到更好的平衡。希望后面能通过不断的努力，给持有人创造更多的价值。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:06.910Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016682,"__csrcFundId":12762,"stockCode":"016682","shortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合(016682)","masterFundShortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16682,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:10:26.093Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"name":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":148308108.37,"setUpShares":148308108.37,"pinyin":"thgylgycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722436","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":407192060,"name":"杜广"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1373881","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1ee7fea5b3eb0525bda","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016682,"sao":"报告期，一直在按既有策略运行，维持高质量、强安全边际、逆向投资的特征。由于居民入市、被动基金和量化基金的发展，尾部的小盘、微盘股获得了空前的流动性，成交极为活跃，也获得了很好的回报。但市场的热闹，可能跟我们并没有太大关系。所有权的视角，我们并没有从这部分微盘股票中找到自己愿意以当前价格进行私有化持有的公司。后续预期还会保持理性和克制，按照自己的选股标准进行投资。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:06.907Z","mo":"去年到今年，我们观察到资本市场的生态可能在发生一些深刻的变化。随着经济增速的逐步下台阶，新的增长机会逐步变少，地方政府、资本市场与上市企业互相加强的融资-投资循环正在被打破，2024年的全年股权融资规模大幅放缓；与此同时，上市公司的分红及回购注销金额则创了历史新高。从产业的角度，可能到了产能投资到富余资金进行资本再配置的拐点，这个资本再配置的行为可能包括分红、回购注销、购买股权等。此时，我们对企业家能力的考察就不再是高效率地组织生产能力，而是是否具备合理的资本配置的能力，而从我们的观察来看，具备这种能力的企业家是少数的。从居民的角度，上百万亿的居民存款，面临着极低的利率水平，普通老百姓可理解的低风险理财机会变得越来越稀缺。不理性的投资者会受短期价格波动影响，陷入频繁交易、但长期亏钱的窘境之中；理性的投资者，或转化为价值投资者，或者通过理财、保险产品等间接购买了高质量、高分红的稳定资产。前述可能是未来长期的、系统性的变化，资金会变得越来越充裕，而真正优秀的资产则是非常稀缺的，可能会不断被重估。持续去寻找这部分资产，并且以相对便宜的价格买入并持有，是我们当下最需要做的事情。","fund":{"_id":3000000016682,"__csrcFundId":12762,"stockCode":"016682","shortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合(016682)","masterFundShortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16682,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:10:26.093Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"name":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":148308108.37,"setUpShares":148308108.37,"pinyin":"thgylgycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722436","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":407192060,"name":"杜广"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1340787","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1ee7fea5b3eb0525bd9","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016682,"sao":"春节之后，AI的叙事逻辑主导了市场的波动，TMT的成交持续占A股成交的40-50%左右。市场是如此割裂，给AI硬件及相关应用的公司动辄10倍以上的PS；但是给其他传统的、所谓的“上一个时代的遗产”的公司，极其苛刻、便宜的估值水平。然而，并非所有的成长都创造价值，如果企业在发展的过程中不能通过各种方式形成自己的护城河，那么最终的结局一定是通过商业的残酷竞争不断被毁灭价值。对于目前被市场热捧的AI标的，有几个能够真正做到有护城河的成长，我们深表怀疑。这段时间也曾自我怀疑，完全不参与AI，究竟是对长期结局的“警醒”，还是自己不尊重市场的“傲慢”？这个答案只能交给后面的验证来回答。但一个足够强的不参与的理由是不能拿客户的钱来冒险，这个“险”指的是长期来看不可逆的回撤。因此，我们偏权益的资产都集中配置在能算得清楚回报率，且具有较强护城河的标的之中，这些标的的配置一定程度上集中在市场的“反面”，广泛分布于市场不看好的众多细分方向之中。相信随着市场由沸腾转向冷静，持有资产的折扣在收敛的过程中有望给基金创造收益。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:06.904Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016682,"__csrcFundId":12762,"stockCode":"016682","shortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合(016682)","masterFundShortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16682,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:10:26.093Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"name":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":148308108.37,"setUpShares":148308108.37,"pinyin":"thgylgycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722436","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":407192060,"name":"杜广"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1270041","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1ee7fea5b3eb0525bd8","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016682,"sao":"2024年我们依然在既定的投资策略下运行：股票坚持优质、低估值和逆向投资的策略，转债坚持中低价转债中寻找被低估的期权的策略。所有的投资首先寻求的是不亏钱，然后才是赚钱，因此安全边际始终放在最靠前的位置。在长期尽可能不亏损的前提下，收益的兑现则依赖于公司业绩的变化以及市场先生的出价的变化。9月下旬之前的市场先生无疑是偏悲观的。很多标的的价格一次次突破我们对底线价值的评估，不断挑战持有的心态。但到了9月下旬，各部委开始联合救市的时候，市场先生则一下子进入到完全相反的乐观、亢奋状态。由于市场先生的慷慨和前期对持仓的坚持，我们实现了相对理想的绝对收益，给各位持有人至少交了一个不错的答卷。回头看，云淡风轻，但中间值得反思的地方有非常多。其中，最大的反思是隧道可能比想象的更黑更长，在逆向投资的时候需要有更苛刻的标准、更大的耐心。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:06.902Z","mo":"过去3-4年普遍偏差的宏观经济感受，主要的症结在房地产。一方面是地产销售面积从21年的峰值开始下滑，并接近腰斩，对相关产业链具有巨大的拖累作用；另一方面，房屋价格的下跌通过财富效应对居民的消费造成了负面影响。24年9月份以后，随着大规模救市政策的出来，我们看到实体经济的信心在逐步恢复，房地产行业也连续3、4个月份保持相对较好的状态。我们认为房地产行业很可能会在最近一两年摸到这一轮下行周期的底部，过去几年经济的最大拖累项或将逐步企稳。拉长时间看，我们认为好的机会应该沿着经济缓慢复苏的基准假设去自下而上挖掘和寻找，这可能是当前赔率和胜率兼具的机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000016682,"__csrcFundId":12762,"stockCode":"016682","shortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合(016682)","masterFundShortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16682,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:10:26.093Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"name":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":148308108.37,"setUpShares":148308108.37,"pinyin":"thgylgycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722436","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":407192060,"name":"杜广"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1252314","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1ee7fea5b3eb0525bd7","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016682,"sao":"9月底的政策礼包，是对逆向价值投资者的奖赏。我们前期基于极其诱人的价格相对价值的折扣，一直保持了较高的仓位，也终于迎来了收获。市场上大部分投资者都希望自己既买到折扣，又能够顺“势”。这个“势”，可以是基本面的趋势，或者股价的趋势。但这都只是如海市蜃楼般的理想。顺“势”带给投资者的心理的舒适度，必然以低折扣甚至溢价为代价，同时也承担了这个“势”的终结带来的股价的坍塌。反之，逆向投资者表面上与趋势为敌，似乎承担了巨大的风险，但实际上却是风险更小的选择。首先是由于股票下跌后带来的风险释放，更重要的是投资者去对抗市场时，所必经的严肃、独立的思考，对底线价值的充分评估。逆向给了我们正向的激励和反馈，这也是过去一个季度最大的收获。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:06.899Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016682,"__csrcFundId":12762,"stockCode":"016682","shortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合(016682)","masterFundShortName":"天弘广盈六个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16682,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:10:26.093Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"name":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2023-06-28T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":148308108.37,"setUpShares":148308108.37,"pinyin":"thgylgycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20722436","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":407192060,"name":"杜广"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘广盈六个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1173083","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1ee7fea5b3eb0525bd6","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016682,"sao":"市场对经济的预期相对不太乐观的。在股票上，反映在对水电、运营商、大盘红利型资产的抱团；在债券上，反映在对长久期利率债的追逐；在渠道端，反映在对任何低权益含量产品的热衷。这种一致预期往往意味着反转的可能性。因为在资本市场中最好的预测方式并非是线性的，而是带着周期性的视角，一个宏大叙事深入人心、抵达顶点，往往是衰落的开始。我们认为资本市场忽视了很多经济改善的事实，以及政策层面上的努力，即便这些改善目前表现温和，但不可否认的是政策层面对于打破经济、尤其是地产负向循环的决心。我们的组合已经陆续在减持公用事业看空内需的方向，不止是因为高的拥挤度，更是因为相关股票的价格相对于价值已经失去折扣、转为溢价状态。与之相反，我们在建材、白酒、制造业的细分利基市场的龙头等有加仓的动作。在转债资产中，市场似乎重复了每一轮信用危机+中小盘股票下跌的韵脚，这些故事在2018年，2020年12月都发生过。与前几轮不同的是，在目前的监管环境下，股票的退市风险要更大，因此我们各个组合做了一些梳理和风险的防范。但我们认为市场泥沙俱下并不合理，没有信用风险、退市风险的中小盘低价转债，依然是值得我们在里面进行定价和投资的。长期来看，这部分转债的alpha会因为环境的变化而有所削弱，但是并没有消失。现在是需要在里面积极进行挖掘和定价的时刻。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdat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