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80%仓位中枢的中等久期利率债配置策略+20%股票仓位中枢的红利低波增强策略，目标是借助低波股票投资思路改善组合权益仓位的风险收益特征，同时利用股债风险对冲来平衡产品的风险收益比。展望四季度，美联储进入降息周期，国内政策明显发力，虽然季末连续上涨幅度较大，但从中期维度看，权益市场赔率和胜率依然兼具，是值得积极把握的阶段。对于债市而言，收益率曲线陡峭化，久期溢价有所修复，短期或许面临一定的情绪扰动，但中期来看，政策落地到改善融资需求仍有距离；同时，伴随LPR和按揭利率调降，对银行及大保险公司的自营资金投资而言，长久期国债的配置价值开始逐渐凸显。整体来看，在当前阶段，均衡配置股债仍有较高性价比，争取在能有效降低波动的同时获得长期资产风险溢价。本基金将继续坚持“20%股票仓位中枢的红利低波增强策略+80%仓位中枢的中等久期利率债配置策略”，秉持勤勉尽责，力争为投资者获得有竞争力的绝对收益。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:00.321Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016637,"__csrcFundId":11764,"stockCode":"016637","shortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合(016637)","masterFundShortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16637,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:08:48.067Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051560000,"name":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":141182103.68,"setUpShares":141182103.68,"pinyin":"bdhrdywj6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019647","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122313241600,"name":"刘玮明"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1175984","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1e87fea5b3eb05254ff","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016637,"sao":"2024年上半年，市场在反弹之后再归平淡，基本面亦有转弱迹象，美联储降息预期反复，A股股市总体下跌，沪深300上涨0.89%，中证500下跌8.96%，中证1000下跌16.84%；债券方面，十年期国债利率从2.55%下行至2.20%，利率体系总体在低位运行。上半年，经济数据有所反复，PMI从1月份的49.2上升至3月份的50.8，之后再次下行至6月份的49.5，经济呈现出供给修复、需求反复后回落的特征，结构上分化延续，景气度较高的主要是生产端、出口和电力投资，需求端和价格总体偏弱；政策方面，政治局会议在稳增长方面释放了较为积极的信号，市场对财政和货币政策仍抱有期待，在地产政策连续放松下，部分城市的二手房成交也有所好转。另一方面，在金融增加值核算方式优化调整的背景下，社融、M2、M1等金融数据有所走弱，M2从3月份的8.3%下行至5月份的7%，而资本市场出于对一些小企业挤出效应的担忧，市场风险偏好再度下降，虽然央行多次提示利率较低，但债券市场仍然因避险情绪而受追捧。海外方面，美国降息预期依然“折返跑”频繁，最新的CPI数据增加了对通胀可持续下降的信心，美联储需要等待更多的证据确认通胀的趋势。值得注意的是，美联储预期长期政策利率从此前的2.6%进一步上调至2.8%，意味着长债利率中枢或出现抬升。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:00.318Z","mo":"往后看，实质性地促进国内经济循环回升仍是影响利率与股票市场的根本力量，美联储在下半年能否如预期降息也可能扰动市场，如果经济出现确定性的回升，美联储开启降息，通胀才可能确实回升。本基金上半年在基金合同约定的资产配置比例范围内总体维持偏高的权益比例，维持了偏短的债券久期，风格与选股方面，遵循多因子模型，在成长与价值当中总体保持均衡，市值风格适中。本基金将继续坚持攻守兼备的投资思路，积极跟踪把握基本面与市场的变化，保持对市场的尊重及敬畏，秉持勤勉尽责，力争为投资者获得有竞争力的投资收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000016637,"__csrcFundId":11764,"stockCode":"016637","shortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合(016637)","masterFundShortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16637,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:08:48.067Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051560000,"name":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":141182103.68,"setUpShares":141182103.68,"pinyin":"bdhrdywj6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019647","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122313241600,"name":"刘玮明"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1148302","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1e87fea5b3eb05254fe","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016637,"sao":"2024年一季度，经济延续底部波动的特征，在美联储确认加息结束后市场对首次降息时点的预期仍有所反复，基本面总体波澜不惊，但股票市场出现了深度下跌，而后又强势反弹，资产价格周期一定程度地脱离了基本面周期。全季看，沪深300上涨3.10%、中证500下跌2.64%、中证1000下跌7.58%、创业板指下跌3.87%；债券方面，十年国债利率下行26BP至2.29%，一年期AAA同业存单利率下行17BP至2.23%附近。经济基本面方面，尽管股票市场的大幅波动使得市场一度对经济比较悲观，但一季度的经济实际表现却可能是震荡向上的，PMI从12月份的49反弹至3月份的50.8，1-2月份的工业增加值同比增速维持在7%，产成品同比增速从11月份的1.7%反弹至2月份的2.4%，库存周期呈现底部企稳特征，CPI从12月份的-0.3%反弹至正值区域，2月份录得0.7%，而2月份的PPI则持平于12月份的-2.7%，总体而言，通胀指标也呈现出周期磨底特征。海外方面，美联储基本确认了加息周期的结束，但对降息的次数与时点仍未明确，市场预期也常有反复，由于美国经济与就业市场总体上表现强势，虽然通胀数据处于回落的预期通道之中，但仍然使得降息事件存在不确定性，趋势而言，若美联储能够在今年降息，将可能助推中国的再通胀进程。 总体上看，一季度的市场大幅波动并非来自基本面的超预期恶化，事实可能是相反的，市场与基本面的背离来自市场的内生流动性事件冲击，展望二季度，市场可能在事件冲击之后重新回到基本面的轨道。 本基金一季度在基金合同约定的资产配置比例范围内总体维持中等的权益比例，小幅配置了中性策略，维持了较短的债券久期，风格与选股方面，遵循多因子模型，在成长与价值当中总体保持均衡，市值风格适中。本基金将继续坚持攻守兼备的投资思路，积极跟踪把握基本面与市场的变化，保持对市场的尊重及敬畏，秉持勤勉尽责，力争为投资者获得有竞争力的投资收益。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:00.315Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016637,"__csrcFundId":11764,"stockCode":"016637","shortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合(016637)","masterFundShortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16637,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:08:48.067Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051560000,"name":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":141182103.68,"setUpShares":141182103.68,"pinyin":"bdhrdywj6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019647","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122313241600,"name":"刘玮明"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1073810","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1e87fea5b3eb05254fd","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016637,"sao":"2023年，国内的经济波动以及美联储的加息路径是主导市场的两条主线，市场预期也随之起伏，放大了市场的波动范围。全年看，股票方面，沪深300下跌11.38%，中证500下跌7.42%，中证1000下跌6.28%，创业板指下跌19.41%，恒生指数下跌13.82%；债券方面，十年国债利率下行28BP至2.55%，一年期AAA同业存单利率走出M型走势最后持平于2.4%附近。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:00.313Z","mo":"经济基本面方面，2023年经济总体表现出底部波动企稳特征，PMI从1月份的50.1小幅回落至12月份的49，而工业增加值同比增速从1-2月份的2.4%反弹至12月份的6.8%，产成品同比增速从1-2月份的10.7%回落至12月份的2.1%，CPI与PPI等价格指标有所回踩，PPI在6月探底到同比下降5.4%后改善到9月的-2.5%，后有所反复，又回落到12月-2.7%，总体而言，通胀和库存指标呈现出周期磨底特征；政策方面，一揽子化债、地产需求释放、“三大工程”、增发国债等政策陆续出台，但可能大部分落地项目在于2024年，从建筑业PMI指数看，新订单指数从7月份的全年低点46.3上升至12月份的50.6，业务活动预期指数从8月份的全年低点60.3上升至12月份的65.7，尽管市场对地产等长周期问题仍然存在一定的悲观预期，但随着政策的逐步落地，经济周期有望走出底部。海外方面，美联储12月议息会议基本宣告加息周期结束，鲍威尔称本次会议讨论了降息时点问题，释放明确降息信号，美联储全面下调2023-2025年通胀预测，或为后续降息进一步铺垫，点阵图显示2024年降息3次--全球流动性或出现转折点，有利于改善新兴市场流动性，可能成为明年市场的另一条波动主线。本基金将继续坚持攻守兼备的投资思路，积极跟踪把握基本面与市场的变化，保持对市场的尊重及敬畏，秉持勤勉尽责，力争为投资者获得有竞争力的投资收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000016637,"__csrcFundId":11764,"stockCode":"016637","shortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合(016637)","masterFundShortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16637,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:08:48.067Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051560000,"name":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":141182103.68,"setUpShares":141182103.68,"pinyin":"bdhrdywj6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019647","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122313241600,"name":"刘玮明"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1054039","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1e87fea5b3eb05254fc","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016637,"sao":"2023年三季度，在新一轮的宽松政策支持下，中国经济的部分指标出现边际企稳，美国于7月再次加息，美债利率再次上扬，伴随资金流出持续施压A股风险偏好。全季看，股票方面，沪深300下跌3.98%，中证500下跌5.13%，国证2000下跌6.66%，基金重仓指数下跌7.72%；债券方面，十年期美债利率上行78BP，中国十年期国债上行4BP。三季度，股票市场持续低迷，有市场观点将目光聚焦于经济的中长期因素，特别是在印花税以及其他政策红利逐步释放之后，市场仍持续下跌，似乎进一步加大了“中长期归因”的正确性。我们在二季报中认为，“在政策调整似已再次展开的情况下，在市场悲观区域，应当避免将长期问题短期化的倾向”，事实上，如果考察经济基本面，8月中旬，央行下调MLF利率15BP至2.5%，幅度加大的意图较为明显；9月PMI从6月份反弹1.2至50.2，自4月以来重回枯荣线上方；8月份工业增加值从7月3.7%反弹至4.5%，PPI从6月的-5.4%收窄至-3%，工业产成品库存持续下探至7月的1.6%后反弹至8月的2.4%，工业部门可能出现了一轮短暂的补库存，部分工业品价格表现强劲。总体而言，我们认为，四季度至明年一二季度之间，经济可能仍将延续上行，风险偏好终将回归至基本面主线。债券方面，以8月中下旬为分界线，市场从股跌债涨切换至股债同跌，也从债券角度侧面印证了上述基本面的边际变化，在MLF下调15BP之后，十年期国债利率未能继续下探并有效突破历史低点，而是从底部2.54%反弹13BP至2.67%，五年期二级资本债反弹超过20BP，高于MLF的十年期利率可能隐含了一定的经济反弹预期，也可能表明股票市场的低迷并非来自经济基本面，而可能是外部流动性的短期冲击。展望四季度，我们认为经济可能延续向上动能，尽管美国的最后加息仍然存在不确定性，但如果把时间拉长至明年上半年，美债利率也可能反转向下，在这种背景下，股票市场从胜率与赔率看都处于较好的配置窗口，保持股票与债券的平衡配置仍是较佳的选择。本基金将继续坚持攻守兼备的投资思路，积极跟踪把握基本面与市场的变化，保持对市场的尊重及敬畏，秉持勤勉尽责，力争为投资者获得有竞争力的投资收益。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:00.310Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016637,"__csrcFundId":11764,"stockCode":"016637","shortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合(016637)","masterFundShortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16637,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:08:48.067Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051560000,"name":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":141182103.68,"setUpShares":141182103.68,"pinyin":"bdhrdywj6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019647","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122313241600,"name":"刘玮明"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=989172","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1e87fea5b3eb05254fb","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016637,"sao":"2023年上半年，中国经济先扬后抑，美国于6月暂停加息但预期仍存，人民币兑美元贬值至7.26附近。总体看，股票方面，沪深300下跌0.75%，中证500上涨2.29%，国证2000上涨7.08%，基金重仓指数下跌3.26%；债券方面，十年期美债利率下行7BP，中国十年期国债下行22BP。二季度的经济回落早于我们的预期，PMI从3月的51.9下滑至5月份的48.8，而后微幅反弹至6月的49，地产链条在3月小阳春之后亦重现弱势，百强城市房价上涨个数从一季度末的41个回落至29个，历史上通常对应着货币政策相对宽松的区域；物价方面，5月份CPI为0.2%，PPI为-4.6%，同时，工业企业产成品库存名义同比下降至3.2%，表明工业企业仍处于去库存阶段，但可能正在接近尾声；货币数据方面，社融增速在经历了一季度的扩张之后回落，M1增速亦处低位，在经济活动再次趋冷的情况下，货币活化速度也较低，流动性仍较多地淤居于银行体系，银行开始降低存款利率，央行也于6月出现OMO、MLF、LPR的全面降息。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:00.308Z","mo":"总体而言，从宏观上看，二季度经济再次趋冷，而后政策重启发力。在此背景下，多数股票指数回落，在结构活跃的同时，中特估与AI等热点板块也高位回调，债券市场则单边上涨，利率趋势下行。我们在此前季报曾预期，国内经济复苏并非单线条，而是存在波折的，若展望三个季度以上，需要看到中期经济中枢对短期经济增长的可能压制，而在信贷、出口、消费脉冲等前置力量消失之后，三个季度以上的经济前景可能会重现下行。二季度经济趋冷的实际情况在时点上早于我们的预期，这也引起市场对一些中期问题的讨论，但在政策调整似已再次展开的情况下，我们认为，在市场悲观区域，应当避免将长期问题短期化的倾向。事实上，回顾今年以来的经济与市场走势，宏观领先于微观，政策领先于宏观，内部模型显示，在压制股票风险偏好的因素中，向下波动的经济与信贷脉冲并非唯二甚至不是主要的因素，美债利率的重新反弹可能贡献更多影响。展望三季度，在国内政策再次发力的情况下，上述因素可能出现阶段性逆转。而在债券方面，我们维持此前判断，在中性利率未出现趋势上行的情况下，利率下行的概率总体上大于上行的概率，流动性并非制约今年市场的核心因素，经济增长及其不确定性或许才是，因此，始终保持股票与债券的平衡配置可能更有利于抵抗市场的波动。本基金将继续坚持攻守兼备的投资思路，积极跟踪把握基本面与市场的变化，保持对市场的尊重及敬畏，秉持勤勉尽责，力争为投资者获得有竞争力的投资收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000016637,"__csrcFundId":11764,"stockCode":"016637","shortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合(016637)","masterFundShortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16637,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:08:48.067Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051560000,"name":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":141182103.68,"setUpShares":141182103.68,"pinyin":"bdhrdywj6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019647","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122313241600,"name":"刘玮明"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=963619","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1e87fea5b3eb05254fa","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016637,"sao":"2023年一季度，国内经济总体复苏，但期间的市场预期略有摇摆，美国延续加息，而在强劲的经济数据与部分银行风险事件的交织下，预期也出现了剧烈波动。全季看，股票方面，沪深300上涨4.63%，中证500上涨8.11%，国证2000上涨9.89%，基金重仓指数上涨2.99%；债券方面，十年期美债利率下行40BP，中国十年期国债上行2BP。一季度市场的主要驱动力仍然是国内经济复苏、美国的加息路径，以及相关的市场预期摇摆。从国内来看，经济仍处于短期的复苏通道中，以PMI为例，1月份与2月份分别录得50.1、52.6，较大幅度好于季节性，而3月份为51.9，仍然处于扩张区间，但景气值有所回修，在此期间，市场预期亦经历了从亢奋到冷静的回修。从2022年四季度至2023年1月份，在复苏预期之下，市场风险偏好维持强势，而在2月份之后，随着预期的降温，市场也出现了一定回调。总体而言，市场可能逐步接受了经济从“强复苏”到“弱复苏”的预期，与此相适应，中国债券市场也在2月份之后回暖，十年国债大体持平于2.9%附近，而高等级信用债在配置力量的驱动之下利率明显下行。在此期间，压制股票市场的另一个因素是美国加息路径，美国经济可能逐步走到了一个需要在持续加息、远期衰退、即期金融风险这三者之间相互平衡的十字路口--2月份以前美国强劲的经济数据有力地支持了进一步紧缩，而3月份之后的银行风险事件则大幅抵消了加息预期，短期而言，该类事件大体局限在收益率曲线飙升带来的流动性风险范畴，一方面在中央银行的宏观审慎框架管理之内，另一方面也部分压制了收益率曲线的上涨动力。倘若如此，对新兴市场风险资产而言并非坏事情，市场需要担心的是另外两种情景，即：美国进一步的强劲数据导致持续的超预期紧缩，或者“有毒”资产导致金融风险的系统性扩散。展望二季度，中国的经济读数预计仍会上升，复苏可能延续，也可能会带来利率调整，但就像一季度出现的反复一样，以及我们此前季报就所强调的，此后的经济回升可能将逐步遭遇中期的经济中枢制约，因此短期经济反弹若带来利率反弹也不应被视为是一种趋势性上升，反而是债券资产战略性配置的窗口。另一个值得提示的是，二季度需要关注微观盈利周期的扩散方向，在一季度宏观指标及信贷周期回升的过程中，微观层面的盈利周期却仍然维持低位，一个真正的经济复苏应当伴随着微观企业盈利周期的有力反弹，这可能才是影响二季度市场的胜负手，也是检验经济复苏成色的有力证据。本基金将继续坚持攻守兼备的投资思路，积极跟踪把握基本面与市场的变化，保持对市场的尊重及敬畏，秉持勤勉尽责，力争为投资者获得有竞争力的投资收益。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:00.305Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016637,"__csrcFundId":11764,"stockCode":"016637","shortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合(016637)","masterFundShortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16637,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:08:48.067Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051560000,"name":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":141182103.68,"setUpShares":141182103.68,"pinyin":"bdhrdywj6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019647","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122313241600,"name":"刘玮明"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=882089","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1e87fea5b3eb05254f9","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016637,"sao":"2022年，中国经济与市场在疫情、海外冲突、美联储加息等背景之下一波三折，全年看，股票方面，沪深300下跌21.63%、中证500下跌20.31%，国证2000下跌17.20%，基金重仓指数下跌24.39%；债券方面，十年期美债利率上行236BP，而中国十年期国债上行6BP，人民币兑美元汇率承压。时至四季度，一个显著变化是A股与中债的风险偏好联袂回暖，政策拐点是直接的触发因素，展望2023年，可能最容易的方式是线性外推地认为：“2023年将是一个复苏年，股票上涨，利率市场低迷”，这虽然可能不会过度地偏离当前市场的主流预期，但结论却未必一定是正确的，为此，我们呈现以下几个客观事实。首先，偏弱的基本面估计仍然是一个最大的客观事实。2022年12月的PMI降至47，弱于季节性，也低于2022年4月份的低点，而2022年11月份百城房价上涨个数仍处于历史低位的22个，11月份房地产开发投资累计同比为-9.8%，则反映了仍偏弱的短周期景气，此外，影响中国中性利率的中期融资需求也仍然偏弱，以上是影响短期货币政策以及长期利率中枢的两大因素。与此同时，11月美国PMI降至49，中国出口同比降至-8.9%，反映了外需对中国经济的压制正在路上，我们在此前季报中也有所阐述，贸易项的收窄也可能会从外部流动性的角度压制股票估值。其次，政策在很大程度上影响着经济走势是另一个客观事实。政策调整是否必然带来经济的大拐点？我们认为，这是前提条件，而非充分必要条件，市场自发的消费复苏可能尚不足以彻底扭转经济，仍然需要一系列的政策对冲。最后，需要辩证地看待短期复苏与长期中枢位置。站在当下展望2023年经济，一季度大概率偏弱，二季度出现同比及环比上升，是一个基准预期，而上升力度在很大程度上取决于一季度的政策释放力度；但如果放眼三季度以上更长视角，则需要客观地看待更长期的经济中枢，因为从更长期角度看，未来中国经济更偏向是一个通缩体质，而非通胀体质，在地产与财政难以长期趋势扩张的前提之下，经济的融资需求曲线内缩，高息资产长期缺位，这是我们此前所认为的“利率将迎来战略性配置窗口”的立足点，换言之，疫后的经济复苏不是单面的、线性的复苏，即使在2023年二季度经济如期反弹之时，利率可能却将是一个“第二次的配置窗口”，其根本原因仍然是中性利率的下移并没有被根本性地撼动。另一方面，从通胀角度，随着海外经济体的降温，通胀开始出现缓和，无论通胀、利率、亦或是风险偏好，都是经济增长与流动性的不同镜像，而经济从来不是一个流线型的单面线性体，短期的预期、中期的可能、长期的中枢是需要被考察的三个方面，通胀亦是如此，正是因为中期经济开始出现衰退迹象，从而产生了短期的加息与通胀预期的放缓，但若放眼更长视角，海外通胀的长期粘性并未完全消失。事实上，我们预期，通胀在2023年上半年在经济下降之时或将延续降温，但在下半年一旦美联储紧缩力度下降则可能卷土重来，尽管力度可能会低于过去。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:58:00.302Z","mo":"综上，展望2023年，我们预期，政策拐点只是经济与市场转好的前提条件，风险偏好有望在一段时间里维持温暖，其能否持续的关键在于未来一个季度的实际执行力度。在压制中国A股中期估值的主要因素中，美联储紧缩放缓，贸易景气转弱，中期盈利周期尚未回摆，信贷脉冲仍然偏弱，如果一季度信贷能够中场发力，二季度盈利周期上行，那么，A股可能迎来中期估值的向上拐点，反之则可能再次陷入震荡。而从资产配置角度，我们仍然建议维持股票与债券的均衡配置，以更好地适应非线性的经济变化。本基金于2022年10月25日成立，尚处于建仓期，我们本着稳健建仓的思路，以及股票与债券均衡配置的原则，债券方面，以高等级品种作为配置底仓，同时运用利率量化策略进行增强；股票方面，运用多因子模型捕捉股票超额收益，同时稳步动态地调整股票仓位。本基金将继续坚持攻守兼备的投资思路，积极跟踪把握基本面与市场的变化，保持对市场的尊重及敬畏，秉持勤勉尽责，力争为投资者获得有竞争力的投资收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000016637,"__csrcFundId":11764,"stockCode":"016637","shortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合(016637)","masterFundShortName":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16637,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:08:48.067Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051560000,"name":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":141182103.68,"setUpShares":141182103.68,"pinyin":"bdhrdywj6gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019647","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122313241600,"name":"刘玮明"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博道和瑞多元稳健6个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=871849","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}