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19.17%，创业板指上涨50.4%。风格方面，成长强于价值，小盘跑赢大盘，动量好于反转。行业层面，多数行业上涨，但涨幅分化明显，通信、电子、电力设备涨幅居前，均上涨超40%；银行、交运、石油石化等行业相对跑输，分别下跌10.19%、上涨0.61%、上涨1.76%。情绪方面，三季度全A日均成交2.1万亿，季度环比上行，投资者风险偏好和市场情绪明显提振。两融方面，两融余额约2.4万亿，较上季度末上行，融资买入占比明显提升。报告期内主要加仓了电子和有色，减持了银行和家电。短期市场或延续震荡格局，中期对股市保持战略性乐观。市场情绪处于偏高位置，市场点位整体处于短期高位、波动明显放大。估值来看当前沪深300股权风险溢价率水平处于2022年以来的高位，放在长周期中则属于合理水平。投资者风险偏好改善是本轮中国资产重估的核心驱动力，美国预防性降息的开启可能提升美国“软着陆”的概率，中长期维度来看，坚定看好后市行情。结构上来看，成长风格从各个维度来看演绎均较为极致，我们更倾向于均衡配置，中期关注低估值顺周期行业的赔率与绝对收益。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:49.958Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016553,"__csrcFundId":11690,"stockCode":"016553","shortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合(016553)","masterFundShortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16553,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:06:32.328Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050020000,"name":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":957594119.38,"setUpShares":957594119.38,"pinyin":"nfxy15gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20411857","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122519152130,"name":"卢玉珊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1382028","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1dd7fea5b3eb0524a28","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016553,"sao":"上半年整体市场维持震荡，走势呈“W”型，一季度受积极的财政支持托底，市场在DeepSeek，宇树机器人为代表的科技创新板块带动下震荡上行，二季度因关税受挫后市场逐步修复。具体来看，上半年行情可以分为三个主要阶段，第一阶段从年初持续至三月中旬，此阶段，市场成交额逐步回升，伴随科技板块的Deepseek时刻以及海内外科技大厂的资本开支的提升，市场持续走高，赚钱效应较好。第二阶段从三月中旬到四月末，此阶段，特朗普政府的全球关税使得不确定性加剧，全球市场震荡。第三阶段，伴随地缘扰动的市场修复，关税冲击后市场开始围绕创新药、海外算力、军工等板块进行市场修复，期间以伊冲突带来新的干扰，但总体影响有限。分指数看，沪深300上涨0.03%，上证指数、深证成指和创业板指分别上涨2.76%、0.48%和0.53%，中证1000和国证2000分别上涨6.69%和10.71%。分行业看，有色金属、银行、国防军工和传媒涨幅都在10%以上，而煤炭跌超12%，食品饮料、房地产和石油石化跌幅相对较大。整体来看，大盘风格占优，成长、价值走势均衡，消费龙头下跌较深。上半年增持了非银和农林牧渔，减持了电力设备和汽车板块。受关税升级影响，我们减持了部分出口公司，但其实也是真正具有竞争力的公司的良好布局时机。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:49.956Z","mo":"展望后市，三季度的行情值得期待。首先，从全球资金到场外资金，股市潜在的增量资金并不缺乏，美联储降息预期及弱美元格局驱动了全球资金流向非美资产，而国内广谱利率持续回落，也有望带动理财、定存等资金寻找新的资产配置方向；其次，三季度基本面有进一步稳定的预期，近期中美经贸谈判进展顺利，基建开工三季度可能会有所加速，从而对实物工作量和配套融资形成带动，而“反内卷”政策升温的背景下物价水平有望较二季度好转，从而对企业盈利有利；第三，下半年政策会议、十五五规划等也有望释放中长期稳定经济的信号，从风险偏好层面驱动潜在的增量资金流入市场。在注重“稳定性”的同时可以适当兼顾“弹性”。首先，全球仍处于不确定性的环境中，我们仍然看重竞争格局稳定、资产负债表稳健和自由现金流健康的红利资产，从择时角度，红利资产6-7月因密集分红除权的影响，“日历效应”显示短暂胜率回落，但也提供了其中优质标的的增持机会，未来险资OCI账户配置比例继续提升，低波红利资产仍将受到增量资金青睐。其次，二季度末海外算力链条的核心标的再度创新高，缓解了市场对于全球AI链条发展的担忧，海外高景气也对A股相关产业形成带动作用，TMT的成交集中度在二季度回落至近3年下沿，三季度海外映射与国内产业发展有望带动AI链条的新阶段表现。第三，非美出口链维持在高景气区间，中报季继续关注海风、摩托车、储能逆变器等对欧出口高增的环节。最后，在总量政策企稳回暖、行业反内卷基调延续的背景下，不同产业有希望出现结构性困境反转的方向，如新能源、周期品等细分领域。","fund":{"_id":3000000016553,"__csrcFundId":11690,"stockCode":"016553","shortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合(016553)","masterFundShortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16553,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:06:32.328Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050020000,"name":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":957594119.38,"setUpShares":957594119.38,"pinyin":"nfxy15gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20411857","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122519152130,"name":"卢玉珊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1351615","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1dd7fea5b3eb0524a27","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016553,"sao":"一季度市场整体呈“V”型，开年前两个交易日快速下跌，后震荡上涨，最终上证指数收跌。具体来看，沪深300下跌1.21%，中证500上涨2.31%，中证1000上涨4.51%，创业板指下跌1.77%。风格方面，市场风险偏好自2024年9月底以来有明显提升，成长、小盘风格依旧保持强势，低估值风格因此被抽血，一季度录得负收益。行业层面分化明显，受资源价格上涨和机器人主题催化，有色金属、汽车、机械设备涨幅居前，分别上涨 11.96%、11.40%、10.61%，煤炭、商贸零售、石油石化跌幅最深，分别下跌10.59%、8.22%、5.90%，表明市场对于顺周期资产的贝塔依然存在分歧。展望后市，特朗普政府的“美国优先”政治导向带来全球对等关税落地，全球贸易环境复杂及供应链的破坏，叠加国内年报和一季报的披露市场风险偏好的降低，无论是对于经济体价格的恢复、还是企业盈利的改善都将形成短期的压制作用，阶段性降低全球风险资产的风险偏好并引发流动性冲击。对美出口下降以及全球需求下滑将会拖累中国出口增速，全面支持内需消费成为完成今年经济发展目标以及应对外部冲击的关键措施。国内3月两会时隔数年重提“择机降息降准”，“拟发行1.3万亿超长期特别国债”意味着 25年的广义财政存在进一步发力空间，将为5%的GPD增速目标提供强有力支持；4月下旬召开的政治局会议可能会进一步延续和调整财政支出及内需消费的进一步崛起，关税冲击带来的悲观情绪也有望阶段性缓解。二季度将进入政策效果密集验证期，美联储降息通道有望开启，美国经济持续降温，金融条件紧缩，伴随降息预期回升，非美国家再平衡预计在短期还会持续。目前A股各类宽基的估值回到过去十年50%分位数以下位置，4月政治局会议前后政策有望进一步释放暖意，叠加经济弱复苏预期升温和风险偏好的修复，我们对市场并不悲观。对于标的的选择上，依然沿着“科技创新”和“稳定红利”两条主线展开，兼顾结构性的困境反转机遇。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:49.953Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016553,"__csrcFundId":11690,"stockCode":"016553","shortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合(016553)","masterFundShortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16553,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:06:32.328Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050020000,"name":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":957594119.38,"setUpShares":957594119.38,"pinyin":"nfxy15gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20411857","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122519152130,"name":"卢玉珊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1277580","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1dd7fea5b3eb0524a26","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016553,"sao":"2024年A股市场整体呈现“先抑后扬、震荡上行”的走势，整体可以大致分为四个阶段。（1）春节前的市场下跌：悲观预期下两融、雪球等流动性负反馈效应以及美联储降息预期后移等因素打击市场风险偏好，大盘快速下行；（2）2-5月市场迎来超跌反弹行情，得益于国内政策端持续发力，重要机构投资者入场托举指数，以及海外PMI超预期带动出口数据修复等因素驱动；（3）5月-9月中旬市场回调：上市公司财报、金融数据不及预期，海外环境不确定性升温，市场出现回调；（4）9月下旬至年底，政策基调明显回暖，国内超预期政策组合拳加力稳增长，市场大幅反弹后进入宽幅震荡行情。全年来看，主要股指全年多数录得两位数涨幅，具体来看，沪深300、中证500、中证1000、创业板指涨幅分别为14.6%、5.46%、1.2%、13.2%。风格方面，2024年市场呈现“成长与红利双主线并行”的特征。成长板块方面，在政策支持和技术突破的背景下，成长板块估值弹性显著提升，以人工智能、低空经济、半导体为代表的科技板块成为核心驱动力。第二，由于无风险利率下行、“新国九条”鼓励上市公司分红、回购与市值管理，长期投资者持续入市，使得高股息主线贯穿全年，成为资金避险与长期配置的重要方向。在行业层面，非银金融得益于超预期政策组合拳带来的市场风险偏好翻转，全年录得34.3%的涨幅，排名行业第一；银行在高股息板块中深受投资者青睐，受益于分红提升、坏账下滑、城投/地产风险逐渐平稳着陆等因素，银行全年上涨30.17%，排名行业第二；通信兼具AI产业的光模块、以及红利资产的运营商，受到资金关注，涨幅达到28.82%。另一方面，受制于内需的恢复偏慢和产业政策的压制，医药生物、农林牧渔、美容护理等消费属性板块表现欠佳，分别下跌14.3%、11.5%、10.3%。本基金9月份之前业绩尚可，但在9月底之后的反弹中结构相对保守，大幅跑输市场。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:49.950Z","mo":"展望后市，12月中央经济工作会议时隔数年罕见明确了宽货币、宽财政的“双宽”基调，“政府举债空间提升”意味着25年的广义财政存在进一步发力空间，无论是对于经济体价格的恢复、还是企业盈利的改善都将形成带动作用。且春节后伴随年报业绩预告及特朗普关税等不确定性落地，春节后市场躁动行情有望开启。此外，春节期间DeepSeek口碑爆棚，影响力出圈，成为了科技领域新的产业催化剂，科技成长风格有望从主题驱动转为基本面驱动、进入趋势性占优阶段。目前A股各类宽基的估值回到过去十年30%-50%的分位数位置，一季度两会前后政策有望进一步释放暖意，叠加货币流动性和风险偏好的修复，25年的春季行情值得期待。对于标的的选择上，25年依然沿着“科技创新”和“稳定红利”两条主线展开，兼顾结构性的困境反转机遇。第一，中美2.0时代，关键卡脖子领域的国产化动力加强（半导体、信创），年初DeepSeek的科技成果引爆全球，其凭借低成本、开源、蒸馏模式等特点，大幅提升了后续AI推理算力、端侧、应用等领域发展的可能性，给整个AI+产业链的业绩兑现带来了想象空间。过去2年，科创创业板相较于主板的业绩走势向下，因此科技领域机会以主题概念为主，而仅有少数公司能够兑现业绩；DeepSeek的发展使得未来有更多的AI产业链的公司出现订单爆发或者商业模式的创新，有望使得科创创业板相较于主板的业绩优势重新抬升。此外，打破了过去2年美国在AI领域的绝对垄断地位，这也驱动了全球资金重估中国优势科技公司，为A股港股科技公司提供了增量资金。我们优先跟踪业绩兑现确定性较高的端侧硬件、机器人智驾、推理测算力，此外全年维度关注华为昇腾910产业链、字节跳动产业链。第二，我们仍然会看重行业竞争格局的稳定、资产负债表的稳健和自由现金流的健康，对于红利类资产的配置，在经济预期转向平稳的背景下，选择更有进攻性的偏周期类资产，也兼顾一些和科技创新共振的行业。第三，对于出口链上具有国际竞争力的企业，比如家电、电力设备、纺织制造等，中国制造业提升海外渗透率已是大势所趋，且出口链公司有明确的“涨在业绩期”的特征，在3-4月年报一季报窗口值得关注。第四，对于内需消费、地产链、军工等经营周期长期处于底部的困境行业，也可能存在因政策驱动或产业自发出清所带来的供需改善，关注相关低估低配领域脉冲式的修复机遇，我们更多做到标的甄别和筛选。","fund":{"_id":3000000016553,"__csrcFundId":11690,"stockCode":"016553","shortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合(016553)","masterFundShortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16553,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:06:32.328Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050020000,"name":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":957594119.38,"setUpShares":957594119.38,"pinyin":"nfxy15gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20411857","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122519152130,"name":"卢玉珊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1258360","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1dd7fea5b3eb0524a25","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016553,"sao":"三季度市场大幅反弹，具体来看，沪深300上涨16.07%，中证500上涨16.19%，中证1000上涨16.6%，创业板指上涨29.21%。行业层面全部录得正收益且分化明显，非银金融、房地产、综合涨幅居前，分别上涨41.67%、33.05%、31.2%，煤炭、石油石化、公用事业涨幅最少，分别上涨1.24%、2%、2.95%。上半年我们的配置思路总体偏防御，且由于结构上偏均衡和分散，在三季度的反弹中跑输市场。展望后市，政策转向信号明确，风险偏好和市场流动性得到显著改善，市场底部基本探明，心态上会更加积极，继续提高对个股的定价能力，减少基于市场点位、风格判断对操作的扰动。对于标的的选择上，我们会仍然看重竞争格局的稳定、资产负债表的稳健和自由现金流的健康。对于红利类资产的配置，我们会选择更有进攻性的偏周期类资产；对于出口链上具有国际竞争力的企业，比如家电、电力设备、纺织制造等，我们仍然长期看好。同时我们希望适度提升组合内持仓的赔率，积极布局具备潜在基本面向上拐点的个股或板块性机会。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:49.948Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016553,"__csrcFundId":11690,"stockCode":"016553","shortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合(016553)","masterFundShortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":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导致在反弹初期跑输，但是市场企稳后，通过发掘一些偏中小市值公司的结构性机会获得了较好的回报。总体来说，我们的持仓相较年初市值更加下沉，所以在四季度的反弹中弹性不够，但是我们觉得这些标的估值和增速的匹配度更好。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:49.928Z","mo":"展望23年，压制股票市场估值的三大因素，疫情的应对政策，房地产行业系统性风险以及美国通胀水平都出现了趋势性拐点；我们看好23年经济复苏，尤其是国内地产和消费链条的复苏方向。当前A股整体估值无论是相对自身历史，还是相对债券，均处于相对低估状态，以年度为展望，值得积极配置。从市场风险偏好和流动性角度来看，当前市场换手率依然较低，场外资金除北向交易型资金相对活跃外，公募基金发行、两融、绝对收益类产品，均处于活跃度比较低的状态，所以无论从估值还是流动性的角度，当前时点看未来一年，权益类资产仍是性价比较高的选择。供应链的全球化分工是多年来低通胀高增长的基石，但这一核心要素现在发生了变化，自主可控和安全会给我们选股提供很多自上而下的思路，包括专精特新制造业、计算机自主可控等。新能源经历了去年的大幅调整，估值回到相对合理的水平，我们密切关注其中少数能够建立起超额优势和壁垒的公司。稳定高ROE赛道中，消费医药的景气度都有较好的回升。伴随经济的复苏，顺周期板块如银行、券商、有色、地产产业链都有绝对收益的机会。随着新股的大量发行，次新股存在较大的研究预期差，潜力机会值得关注。","fund":{"_id":3000000016553,"__csrcFundId":11690,"stockCode":"016553","shortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合(016553)","masterFundShortName":"南方鑫悦15个月持有混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16553,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T01:06:32.328Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050020000,"name":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-09-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":957594119.38,"setUpShares":957594119.38,"pinyin":"nfxy15gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20411857","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122519152130,"name":"卢玉珊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"南方鑫悦15个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=873854","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}