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，完全遵循五周期波段操作指标指引，尽量从客观、量化的角度参与上半年债券市场。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:03.517Z","mo":"展望三季度，相比上半年，经济基本面面临多重压力，更大规模财政刺激经济的场景几乎很难预期，未来大概率是保持中等规模的中央财政刺激，加上持续宽松的货币政策护航，债市依然是顺风向，债券收益率依然是随着资金价格震荡下行，逢调整可继续加大配置力度。对下半年债券市场我们依然会以低位震荡的观点应对，宏观和货币政策继续会成为支撑债券市场低位震荡的主要力量，在这个过程中决定其震荡方向的或来自于其他大类资产以及风险偏好的波动，而决定此波动幅度或来源于市场机构行为于仓位的变化，在这个过程中我们会继续优化五周期框架，并应用其中指标对日常交易进行指引。","fund":{"_id":3000000016160,"__csrcFundId":11493,"stockCode":"016160","shortName":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债C","masterFundShortName":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16160,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:37.789Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债债券型证券投资基金","followedNum":2,"setUpDate":"2022-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":395771466.17,"setUpShares":395771466.17,"memoNum":1,"pinyin":"thah60tgdcydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20834798","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231912216460,"name":"王顺利"},{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债债券型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1340745","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1af7fea5b3eb05219e5","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016160,"sao":"一季度债券市场表现较弱。基本面方面，经济数据冷热分化，通缩压力仍在，经济修复依赖政策驱动，PMI和社融数据总体尚可；货币政策方面，人民币汇率压力以及超长利率债较大幅度抢跑货币政策，使得央行一季度在资金投放上较为谨慎，较高的资金价格使得债券市场整体承压；供需方面，广义财政赤字率大幅攀升，一季度政府债券发行放量，供给压力也抑制了债券收益率的下行。一季度后期，在债券长端收益率调整到合理位置后，资金面逐步宽松，预计货币政策重心逐步回归稳增长和配合财政发债，债券市场逐步企稳回升。组合操作上，组合底仓维持短久期票息策略，长端增强部分通过波段操作争取增厚收益。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:03.514Z","fund":{"_id":3000000016160,"__csrcFundId":11493,"stockCode":"016160","shortName":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债C","masterFundShortName":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16160,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:37.789Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债债券型证券投资基金","followedNum":2,"setUpDate":"2022-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":395771466.17,"setUpShares":395771466.17,"memoNum":1,"pinyin":"thah60tgdcydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20834798","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231912216460,"name":"王顺利"},{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债债券型证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1270036","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1af7fea5b3eb05219e4","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000016160,"sao":"2024年债券市场整体表现较好，9月末和10月初的波动较大。基本面方面，出口总体表现较好，但内需总体偏弱，地产销售和投资总体下滑，城投化债背景下地方政府基建总体收缩，实体经济内生融资需求总体偏弱，经济通缩风险凸显。货币政策方面，央行货币政策实际转向适度宽松，降准降息幅度较大，但利率下调对经济的刺激效果有限，且为了兼顾维稳汇率、银行稳息差和防止资金空转，资金面整体维持紧平衡，央行持续提示长债收益率下行过快的风险；监管规范手工补息和非银同业存款利率有助于降低银行负债成本，但引发资金短期加剧脱媒，也助推了债券市场的进一步上涨。财政政策方面，前三季度地方债供给严重滞后，财政发力不足，四季度特殊再融资债的大量发行并置换高息负债，进一步助推中小银行的资产荒。机构行为方面，由于全社会整体的风险偏好总体还是下降的，企业和居民闲余资金源源不断通过中低风险产品涌入债券市场，加剧了债券市场的资产荒。9月下旬中共中央政治局召开会议,出台大规模稳增长措施，市场预期急速反转，引发股市暴涨、债市大跌，10月初公募基金遭遇非理性赎回冲击，信用债出现较大幅度的调整。赎回冲击结束后，债券市场交易再次回归理性和基本面，11-12月在多重利好的加持下，债市做多冲动不断升温，推动债券收益率向下快速突破。组合投资策略上，本基金为短债策略基金，主要投资剩余期限为397天内的中高等级信用债，同时通过判断资金面以及利率走势来调整组合久期和杠杆以增厚收益，在严格控制风险和保持较高流动性的前提下为投资人获取稳健回报。组合操作上，组合底仓维持短久期票息策略，长端增强部分通过波段操作增厚收益。2024年债券市场继续延续牛市，宏观经济层面继续对债市提供较好的做多环境，在地产，地方政府等在过去经济环境中大幅加杠杆的主体在2024年进入到了杠杆收缩阶段，信贷的收缩给了债券配置类机构较大的配置空间，促成2024年债市从交易的角度始终有配置力量在维护收益率的下行。另外一方面，2024年从监管的角度多次对存款进行改革，这也造成了市场上对于稳定类资产的流失，增加了债券的配置力量。与此同时，2024年前三季度在权益和地产表现不佳的环境下，居民的资产配置出现了风险偏好的下降，稳健类资产规模得到了大幅增加，这些都让2024年债券市场无论从机构端还是居民端都出现了较为强大的配置力量，尤其在前三季度在权益尚未抬头，居民风险偏好较低的状态下，收益率持续顺畅下行。在操作上，我们在前三季度也让组合保持了较高的久期水平，四季度随着居民风险偏好下降，我们将组合久期回归中性水平。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:03.507Z","mo":"展望未来一个季度，基本面方面，美国加征关税初期幅度或低于预期，财政短期出台超常规对冲政策的概率大幅降低；常规政策下经济的惯性很强，预计基本面数据表现依然偏平稳，对债市影响略偏正面。货币政策和资金面方面，人民币汇率压力犹存以及中长利率债较大幅度抢跑货币政策，使得央行在资金投放上非常谨慎甚至偏鹰，不同于24年上半年，央行目前对资金把控能力很强，一季度资金面大概率继续维持紧平衡且偏贵的状态，较高的资金价格阻碍债券收益率进一步下行，市场也在逐步修正前期对货币政策过度乐观的宽松预期。未来一个季度债市大概率窄幅震荡，短端赔率较高但胜率一般，核心是央行稳汇率态度坚决且对资金把控能力很强；长端受制于短端，空间也很有限。2025年，在较低的利率环境下首先对于银行等配置类机构来讲，配置的价值持续下滑，反之以交易目的参与市场的资金变多，会加大25年的不确定性，而对于居民来讲，由于当前的低利率环境，同时叠加当前居民风险偏好继续下降空间较小，经济环境和权益市场都有筑底企稳迹象，对于稳健配置的低风险偏好的增量资金有限，也为市场提供了不稳定因素。同时在经济环境制约下，我们预计25年债券市场或不至于出现大熊市，但整体的收益可能会出现较大的波动，所以对于25年的策略，我们更多的会依据我们对市场参与者行为的分析叠加左侧量化交易信号进行偏左侧长债波段交易，整体久期保持中性偏低水平。","fund":{"_id":3000000016160,"__csrcFundId":11493,"stockCode":"016160","shortName":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债C","masterFundShortName":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16160,"currency":"CNY","ma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仓位利率债波段操作，组合整体久期依然保持偏低水平。","declarationDate":"2023-01-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:57:03.484Z","mo":"展望后市，货币政策方面，外部约束大幅缓解，同时中央经济工作会议提出货币政策要“精准有力”，未来宽信用的形成依然艰难，仍需低利率环境刺激实体融资需求，预计在稳增长出现明显效果之前，货币政策仍将维持一定的宽松力度，但银行理财赎回风险实质性缓解后，资金利率仍然会逐步向政策利率靠拢；此外预计出现全面持续通胀的概率较低，不会对货币政策形成掣肘。基本面方面，经济短期缺乏强劲抓手，基建很难继续加码，出口下行趋势难以阻挡，短期内仍然以刺激消费为主，2023年上半年经济总体改善幅度仍存在较大变数：一方面，居民收入修复和信心修复都需要时间，可能制约消费反弹的高度，尤其是地产等大额消费的恢复可能会慢于预期；另一方面出口下滑幅度取决于美欧经济是浅萧条还是深度萧条，目前情形还不清晰。政策方面，近期诸多政策都出现了180°转弯，可以看出新一届政府对稳增长促发展的态度非常坚决，政策工具箱储备也较为充足，一旦上半年经济改善程度不及预期，后续预计也会有更大力度的稳增长政策出台，我们决不能低估中央稳增长的决心。对于短债基金来说，市场经过大幅调整后，从性价比角度来看，信用的性价比大于杠杆，杠杆的性价比大于久期，尤其是短久期中高等级信用债收益率水平，已经进入到一个有配置价值的区间。而利率债中长端进入中枢抬升波动加剧阶段，由于经济增长可能出现低于预期再政策加码的情形，叠加银行负债可能大规模回表，中长端利率债可能会有较多的波段操作机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000016160,"__csrcFundId":11493,"stockCode":"016160","shortName":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债C","masterFundShortName":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":16160,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:37.789Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2022-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债债券型证券投资基金","followedNum":2,"setUpDate":"2022-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":395771466.17,"setUpShares":395771466.17,"memoNum":1,"pinyin":"thah60tgdcydzzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20834798","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231912216460,"name":"王顺利"},{"stockCode":"db20722459","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260412193060,"name":"赵鼎龙"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘安恒60天滚动持有短债债券型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=870243","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}