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2024 年基金年报中，我们已针对自身投资方法在过去三年遭遇的困境展开深入剖析，并对 2025 年市场走势作出相关基础判断。回溯 2025 年全年市场表现，宏观经济态势与市场交易特征在一定程度上与我们的投资方法体系相契合，这使得基金投资业绩得以回升，其中 2025 年上半年的业绩表现更好一些。然而，2025 年下半年 A 股市场涌现出海外算力这一具有决定性影响的核心主题，由于我们在该主题上未进行相关配置，导致下半年业绩显著落后于市场。2025 年全年 A 股市场主题投资热度高涨。上半年人形机器人与创新药主题占据主导地位，下半年海外算力、国产算力主题持续发力，年末商业航天主题亦崭露头角，期间还涌现出多个尚未形成规模的小型主题。从我们的投资逻辑来看，通常不会参与主题投资，尤其是那些在未来两三年内难以通过收入与利润爆发来消化估值泡沫的主题相关个股，因此错过此类大部分主题投资机会并非憾事。但海外算力主题具有特殊性：该领域内光模块与 PCB 板块的龙头企业已呈现出快速的盈利增长态势，且在 2025 年二季度受对等关税政策冲击，估值回落至合理区间。当时我们已关注到这一投资机会，但受前期涨幅较大的心理影响，未能果断参与。此后，光模块相关核心标的开启近乎单边上涨的行情，而我们偏重左侧布局的交易习惯，使其难以在股价上涨途中追入，最终遗憾错失了下半年近五倍的涨幅，这也是导致基金下半年业绩落后的主要原因。此次投资失误反映出，我们不应被标的前期涨幅左右决策，而应基于对未来行业趋势与企业价值的理性预判来评估投资机会，需着力克服单纯的 “恐高” 心态。当前上证指数已突破十年高点，市场中处于绝对低位的股票数量极少，且此类标的多存在明显的基本面瑕疵。在后续的牛市行情中，我们需逐步适应右侧投资模式，但这一调整仍需建立在严格的价值判断基础之上。以当前光模块为例，即便克服了恐高心理，但其作为缺乏专利与品牌壁垒的加工类企业，近三十倍的市净率（PB）估值已明显超出我们的价值评估尺度。在总结分析去年投资失误的基础上，我们对 2026 年市场作出如下基本判断，并将在秉持一贯投资方法甄选投资标的的前提下，对投资组合进行平衡及动态调整，以降低组合投资风险。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-30T23:32:57.479Z","mo":"对于 2026 年市场，具体判断如下：1. 2026 年是 “十五五” 规划的开局之年，中央经济工作会议明确提出要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模。预计 2026 年宏观经济将维持约 5% 的增长速度，而过去两年困扰市场的价格下行趋势将在 2026 年得到扭转，届时 2026 年的名义 GDP 增速可能高于 2025 年，这将为企业经营创造更为有利的市场环境；2.依据 A 股上市公司 2025 年三季报分析，制造业资本开支 / 折旧已处于历史最低水平，在建工程增速于 2023 年中期见顶，这意味着供给过剩最严重的时期已过去。尽管 2025 年全年尚未实现供需平衡，但部分行业已提前达成供需平衡，相关产品价格开始上涨，尤其是四季度部分产品涨速进一步加快。中央经济工作会议要求深入整治 “内卷式” 竞争，这将进一步加快落后产能退出，在总需求保持稳定的情况下，2026 年 CPI 和 PPI 价格均可能存在上行风险。而中游制造业的盈利对价格的弹性最大，预计 2026 年上市公司整体盈利增速将高于 2025 年，若价格传导顺畅，整体盈利增速可能接近两位数；3. 2026年牛市格局仍将延续，盈利增长对牛市的驱动作用会超越估值提升，这样的牛市会更加健康、更加扎实，但预计主要股指的涨幅会小于2025年，慢牛态势更加明显。目前市场的成交量已经大幅增加，流动性充裕，市场交易广度和深度均显著改善，各类风格的资产都能获得相应的资金配置。在经历了近一年半的上涨后，市场估值水平已明显提升，尤其是热门主题和景气行业的估值均存在一定溢价，估值洼地已然不多。由于市场对PPI价格的预期存在很大分歧，因此顺周期行业中存在估值洼地的概率相对更高； 4. 以合理价格买入成长（GARP，Growth at Reasonable Price）策略或将成为2026年较为适宜的投资策略；5.外部环境仍是影响 A 股市场的重要风险因素，美国政策的非预期性、多变性与不确定性，是全球市场共同面临的风险挑战。基于上述判断，我们对 2026 年的业绩表现充满信心。我们的投资方法更适配经济平稳回升与企业盈利增速提升的市场阶段，PPI 的止跌回升也将有利于中游制造业的盈利改善与股价表现。我们将保持乐观心态，既要仰望星空、把握趋势，亦要脚踏实地、坚守价值，积极筛选一批具备 “三年翻一倍” 潜力的优质股票。同时，我们也将严格控制投资风险，合理提升换手率，及时对投资组合进行平衡及动态调整，确保在市场波动中实现稳健运行。我们坚信，只要坚持正确的投资理念与方法，持续总结经验教训，就一定能够获取合理回报，为投资者创造良好的投资收益！","fund":{"_id":3000000001579,"stockCode":"001579","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":70,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":204251000,"market":"a","tickerId":1579,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰大农业股票(001579)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":1796,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:04:54.502Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰大农业股票","pinyin":"gtdnygpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20036910","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":326080050,"name":"程洲"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1450449","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5a47fea5b3eb044a199","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001579,"sao":"2025年三季度，在市场信心不断恢复，场外资金持续流入的大环境下，A股市场全面上涨，主要指数都创下十年新高，沪深300指数单季度上涨17.9%，创业板指数单季度大涨50.4%，有色金属、通信、电子和电力设备行业涨幅靠前，食品饮料、煤炭、交运和银行等偏消费和红利特征的行业表现欠佳。农业板块在创新成长的市场风格下也表现一般。三季度，本基金的股票仓位大部分时间都控制在90%附近，继续保持了对业绩基准的跟踪。从大农业的细分领域看：组合大幅降低了对养殖股的超配比例，维持了农产品加工板块，提高了复合肥磷肥等农资板块的配置比例。整体上本基金继续按照契约的要求，布局了大农业各个细分领域的龙头企业，包括：养殖、饮料、疫苗、种业、化肥、食品加工等。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:05:40.517Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001579,"stockCode":"001579","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":70,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":204251000,"market":"a","tickerId":1579,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰大农业股票(001579)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":1796,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:04:54.502Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰大农业股票","pinyin":"gtdnygpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20036910","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":326080050,"name":"程洲"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1377310","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5a47fea5b3eb044a198","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001579,"sao":"在 2024 年基金年报中，我们对自身投资方法于过去三年面临的困境进行了深入剖析，并就 2025 年市场走势作出了相关基本判断。值得庆幸的是，2025 年上半年宏观经济与市场交易呈现出若干契合我们投资方法体系的态势，投资业绩因此获得提升。2024 年基金年报对 2025 年的展望如下：1. 适度宽松的货币政策以及政治局会议“稳股市稳楼市”的定调，表明2025年A股市场至少存在结构性机会，大幅下行空间（如跌破3000点）的可能性极小。若下半年宏观经济进一步向好，价格指数开始正增长，指数级别的牛市可期，4000点并非遥不可及；本年度以来，A 股展现出以往罕见的韧性。尽管 4 月上旬受关税风波冲击出现大幅下跌，上证指数跌至 3040 点左右，创业板指数甚至出现单日 12.5% 的罕见跌幅，但市场随后稳步收复失地，7 月份上证指数已创下近三年收盘新高，回升至 3600 点附近。上半年宏观经济达成既定目标，然而价格指数仍处于负值区间，下半年经济增速在缺少抢出口因素的影响下，可能较上半年有所放缓，但在基数效应及反内卷政策发力的作用下，价格指数有望于年底前转正。中游制造业盈利弹性对价格更为敏感，A 股市场的驱动力将从先前的流动性驱动转变为未来的流动性与盈利双重驱动。据此，我们重申指数级别的牛市值得期待，4000 点并非遥不可及。2. 日均万亿的成交量能够满足中小市值股票的流动性需求，2024年上半年小股票流动性缺失的局面不会再现，大市值风格大概率跑输小市值风格；本年度以来，A 股市场每日成交量基本维持在万亿以上，7 月份更是提升至日均 1.5 万亿的水平。代表小市值公司的中证2000 指数和国证2000 指数涨幅显著优于代表大市值公司的上证 50 和沪深 300 指数，这在很大程度上属于流动性困境消除后的估值修复。此后，流动性因素对大小市值风格表现差异的影响程度将下降，盈利弹性和市值空间幅度的影响力会更为突出。预计大小市值风格表现差异将逐步收敛，小市值仍有望小幅占据优势。3. 依据A股上市公司2024年三季报分析，制造业资本开支/折旧已达历史新低，在建工程增速于2023年中期见顶，意味着供给过剩最严重的时期已过。尽管2025年未必能整体实现供需平衡，但部分制造行业提前达到供需平衡是有可能的，价格是反映供需关系的直接指标，需关注整体PPI及细分产品价格走势，这预示着制造业的机会将大于前几年，2026年可能更佳；本年度以来，中游制造业在 A 股市场中的表现已大幅好转，有色金属、钢铁、医药、通信、机械设备和基础化工行业的涨幅排名靠前，煤炭、食品饮料、公用事业和房地产行业的表现则相对靠后。这些制造业的良好表现，部分源于人形机器人、创新药及最新的 “反内卷” 等主题；部分源于海外前沿技术与公司的供应链或映射，如 AI 领域；部分源于自身技术优势拓展了新的成长曲线，如 “硬卡替” 中的一些环节；还有部分源于行业供需关系优化和产品价格上涨，如石油焦、部分农药价格。当然，最后这类股票的数量还不多，但我们相信，随着 “反内卷” 政策的推进以及 PPI/CPI 价格的回升，这类股票会越来越多，制造业的投资机会也将随之增大。4. 外部环境仍是困扰中国的风险因素，特朗普新政前期虽未如预期猛烈，但该风险点依然存在；四月初，美国总统的对等关税对全球资本市场造成巨大冲击，无一国家得以幸免。所幸国家最高决策层高瞻远瞩、沉着应对，成功化险为夷，因此关税风波对 A 股的冲击是一次性的，持续时间短暂，A 股很快便重新回归自身的上涨节奏。尽管中美第三轮贸易磋商即将开启，下半年也很可能迎来中美元首会面，但外部风险始终存在，尤其是在市场对外部环境较为乐观时更需保持警惕。不过，这类风险难以提前预测，更重要的是应对。5. 在宏观经济企稳和价格指数转正之前，主题投资将是重要的投资机会，AI、人形机器人、低空、固态电池、兼并重组等主题将轮番登场。本年度以来，A 股市场主题投资盛行，其中人形机器人和创新药主题的持续时间最长、力度最大。遗憾的是，我们的投资方法难以选择到这些热门主题股，未能把握到这些主题投资的机会。下半年主题投资仍将保持活跃，既有前期主题的持续轮动，也会有新主题不断涌现，例如稳定币、反内卷和雅江水电等。其中，“反内卷” 主题是我们较为关注的，该主题下的诸多标的符合我们的选股标准，即买入基于自身盈利预测实现下的低估值品种，倾向于在左侧布局经营周期拐点向上的优质公司，挖掘与市场认知存在偏差的品种。我们将积极跟踪研究政策落地的节奏与效果。总之，2025 年以来 A 股市场相较于去年发生了诸多变化，其中部分变化有利于我们发挥投资优势。我们也对组合管理进行了一些调整，在坚持一贯投资方法选择投资标的的基础上，组合增加了非银金融和传媒游戏行业，以平衡组合以制造业为主的周期波动和外部风险。在个股层面，我们开始控制可变现天数，目前组合中个股平均可变现天数不到 2 天，变现时间最长的个股也仅为 8 天，我们绝不能让组合再出现需要三个月才能变现的个股。","declarationDate":"2025-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:05:40.514Z","mo":"展望下半年，我们基本维持年初的观点，继续对 2025 年的业绩表现充满信心。尽管在过去的投资过程中遭遇过挫折，但我们将保持乐观心态，做到仰望星空、脚踏实地。我们将积极寻找一批能够 “三年翻三倍” 的股票，挖掘具有高成长性和投资价值的公司，同时严格控制投资风险，对投资组合进行科学合理的平衡及动态调整，确保在市场波动中稳健前行。我们坚信，只要坚持正确的投资理念和方法，不断总结经验教训，就一定能够获得回报，为投资者创造良好的收益！","fund":{"_id":3000000001579,"stockCode":"001579","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":70,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":204251000,"market":"a","tickerId":1579,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰大农业股票(001579)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":1796,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:04:54.502Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰大农业股票","pinyin":"gtdnygpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20036910","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":326080050,"name":"程洲"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1347824","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5a47fea5b3eb044a197","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001579,"sao":"2025年一季度，在稳增长政策作用下，中国宏观经济呈现平稳开局，2月和3月中国制造业PMI连续位于50以上，一线城市地产销售呈现小阳春，春节期间DS开源，哪吒票房出圈，使得市场对中国软硬件产业的国际竞争力信心明显增强，风险偏好有所回升。政策方面，两会如期召开，制定5%左右的经济增长目标，4%的赤字率目标，政策目标及力度基本符合市场预期。权益市场在年初下跌之后，震荡修复，结构上，以机器人为代表的科技方向相对收益显著，其中上证指数下跌0.48%，创业板指下跌1.77%，科创50上涨3.42%，农业板块表现相对平稳。一季度，本基金的股票仓位大部分时间都控制在90%附近，整体操作力度不大。从大农业的细分领域看：组合维持对养殖股的超配，维持了农产品加工板块的超配，低配了农资板块。整体上本基金继续按照契约的要求，布局了大农业各个细分领域的龙头企业，包括：养殖、疫苗、种业、兽药、农药、化肥、食品加工等。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:05:40.511Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001579,"stockCode":"001579","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":70,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":204251000,"market":"a","tickerId":1579,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰大农业股票(001579)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":1796,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:04:54.502Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰大农业股票","pinyin":"gtdnygpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20036910","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":326080050,"name":"程洲"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1271014","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5a47fea5b3eb044a196","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001579,"sao":"2024年整体A股市场大起大落，9月份的政治局会议扭转了市场的下跌趋势，但农业指数依然表现欠佳，并没有跑赢市场。2023年本基金年报中写到：展望2024年，猪价和粮价，尤其是猪价，依然是决定整个农业板块表现的最重要的因素。连续两三年的大幅下跌，猪价持续在平均成本线之下，2024年猪价应该会有反弹，预计2024年全年猪肉均价有望超过2023年，并且高于全年的养殖成本，看好出栏量增长较快的养殖企业。而2024年粮食价格有望维持在景气高位，与粮食种植相关的农资行业在PPI价格回升的市场环境下会引来盈利的修复，值得关注。必选消费相关的肉制品和乳制品凭借盈利的确定性和较低的估值有望成为表现较好的农业板块。实际情况是猪价表现和我们预期接近，养殖龙头企业普遍凭借成本优势在2024年实现了大幅度的盈利，但是股价表现受到博弈心态的压制并不理想。农资行业整体表现低于我们的预期，PPI价格维持了下行趋势，农资行业继续承受价格压力，盈利普遍低于预期。而农产品加工行业中的乳制品和肉制品等在9月预期出台刺激消费政策下表现较好。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:05:40.509Z","mo":"展望2025年，猪价和粮价，尤其是猪价，依然是决定整个农业板块表现的最重要的因素。猪价在去年大幅修复之后，预计在新的一年内会维持在平均成本线之上，但表现应该弱于2024年，养殖成本是决定养殖企业投资价值的关键，出栏量增速高但成本不具优势的企业很难获得好的收益。而2025年粮食价格预计会比较平稳，与粮食种植相关的农资行业在持续消化全球库存后有望在PPI价格回升的市场环境下会引来盈利的修复，值得关注。农产品加工相关的则视国内刺激消费政策的实施力度，应该有望成为表现较好的农业板块。","fund":{"_id":3000000001579,"stockCode":"001579","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":70,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":204251000,"market":"a","tickerId":1579,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰大农业股票(001579)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":1796,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:04:54.502Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰大农业股票","pinyin":"gtdnygpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20036910","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":326080050,"name":"程洲"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1253006","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5a47fea5b3eb044a195","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001579,"sao":"2024年三季度，宏观经济延续走弱趋势，7-8月制造业PMI连续下行，地产对经济的拖累幅度仍在加深，外需仍有一定韧性，生产端工业和服务业生产均呈弱势。政策层面，随着三季度经济下行压力加大，货币政策逆周期力度逐步加强，9月下旬政策再次集中发力，央行宣布降低存量房贷利率，创设互换便利和回购增持贷两项结构性货币政策工具，证监会也明确将引导中长期资金入市、支持并购重组、鼓励市值管理，政治局会议对稳增长的表态明显转向积极。三季度，持续弱势的权益市场在政策发力作用下快速反弹，其中沪深300指数和创业板指涨跌幅分别为16%和29%。受益于风险偏好快速回升，券商半导体反弹强势，农业板块表现相对平稳。三季度，本基金的股票仓位大部分时间都控制在90%附近，整体操作力度不大。从大农业的细分领域看：组合维持对养殖股的超配；基于对全球粮食价格上涨和国内种业政策的预期，组合维持了对转基因种业、化肥和农药等子行业的超配比例；对于估值较高的农产品加工板块继续低配。整体上本基金继续按照契约的要求，布局了大农业各个细分领域的龙头企业，包括：养殖、疫苗、种业、兽药、农药、化肥、食品加工等。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdat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-23.8%,从这两个指标看，今年可以说是过去三年中比较惨的上半年。在市场整体交易量下滑的大趋势下，沪深300ETF整体获得巨量申购，对应的就是非300权重股的交易占比下降，这导致大部分中小市值股票遇到了流动性折价的困境，股价表现也十分拉跨。今年以来我们的净值表现依然不如人意，组合中持仓市值在百亿市值以下的都出现了大幅度下跌，明显不符合上半年的市场表现特征。在经历了一月份中小市值股票暴跌后，我们在2023年度基金管理人报告中写道：站在一月末这个时点，我们要摆正心态，保持对市场的敬畏之心，而不是恐惧之心。对于2024年A股市场，我们整体是比较乐观的，连续两三年的下跌已经使得A股具备比较高的股债性价比，尤其是最近中小市值股票的大幅度杀跌，又让我们有了2008年和2018年底遍地是黄金的感觉。可惜的是，经历了三个月的反弹之后，市场再度回落，大批中小市值股票再度面临流动性不足的困境，只是这次下行的斜率比一月份小。虽然我们看到高速公路火电等公用事业这些大市值红利股票在二季度获得了公募基金行业史上最高的超配比例，但我们还是坚信价格终将反应价值，教科书中的定价模型也没有市值这个指标参数，企业价值是未来净现金流的贴现。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:05:40.500Z","mo":"作为从业多年的老基金经理，连续近三年的下跌也是前所未遇，市场情绪也是低至冰点，但我们还是要保持乐观，仰望星空，寻找一批能够“三年翻三倍”的股票，这些标的应该是各个细分行业龙头、代表着新质生产力的方向、正受困于流动性不足而处于折价状态的中小市值股票。在大农业方向，除了继续看好养殖行业在下半年整体的反弹机会，基金将延续配置以技术和产能双轮驱动的未来两三年业绩能够保持较快增长且估值合理的各个农业细分行业龙头。","fund":{"_id":3000000001579,"stockCode":"001579","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":70,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":204251000,"market":"a","tickerId":1579,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰大农业股票(001579)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":1796,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:04:54.502Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰大农业股票","pinyin":"gtdnygpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20036910","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":326080050,"name":"程洲"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1147687","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5a47fea5b3eb044a193","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001579,"sao":"2024年一季度，宏观经济整体呈现平稳开局，前两个月金融数据超出此前市场悲观预期，3月官方制造业PMI超预期回升至荣枯线上，其中出口及制造业表现较好。政策层面，两会对全年5%的GDP增速和3%的通胀预期目标较为积极，但财政政策力度未有超预期，市场对全年经济目标实现的质量仍有担忧，宏观预期依然偏弱。权益市场，一季度各大指数均呈现深“V”走势，最终上证指数上涨2.23%，而创业板指下跌3.87%，农业板块整体表现继续承压。一季度，本基金的股票仓位大部分时间都控制在90%附近，整体操作力度不大。从大农业的细分领域看：猪价开始出现了底部反复震荡的走势，继续系统性下跌的空间很小，组合维持对养殖股的超配；基于对全球粮食价格上涨和国内种业政策的预期，组合维持了对转基因种业、化肥和农药等子行业的超配比例；对于估值较高的农产品加工板块继续低配。整体上本基金继续按照契约的要求，布局了大农业各个细分领域的龙头企业，包括：养殖、疫苗、种业、兽药、农药、化肥、食品加工等。","declarationDate":"2024-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:05:40.497Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001579,"stockCode":"001579","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":70,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":204251000,"market":"a","tickerId":1579,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰大农业股票(001579)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":1796,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:04:54.502Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰大农业股票","pinyin":"gtdnygpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20036910","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":326080050,"name":"程洲"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1071937","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5a47fea5b3eb044a192","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001579,"sao":"2023年依然是基金投资较为困难的一年。这一年我们经历了很多年初并没有预料到的事件，指数的波动幅度还是维持在较高水平。2022年本基金年报中写到：展望2023年，猪价和粮价，尤其是猪价，依然是决定整个农业板块表现的最重要的因素。2022年四季度猪价再度大幅下跌至平均成本线之下，随着经济活动的逐步回暖和线下消费场景的快速恢复，以及整体存栏量的稳步下降和规模化养殖比例的提升，2023年二季度就有望迎来猪价的反弹周期，预计2023年全年猪肉均价有望超过2022年，并且高于全年的养殖成本，看好出栏量增长较快的养殖企业。而2023年粮食价格有望维持在景气高位，与粮食种植相关的农资行业依然会保持较高的景气度，值得关注。但实际情况比我们预期的要差，回顾全年农业板块的表现，在猪价持续低迷和全球粮价盘整的市场环境下，养殖板块整体表现欠佳，而整个农资板块和农产品加工板块受制于业绩压力和估值压力都表现欠佳，种子板块在政策落地后也有见光死的表现，可以说2023年大农业板块压力重重。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:05:40.495Z","mo":"展望2024年，猪价和粮价，尤其是猪价，依然是决定整个农业板块表现的最重要的因素。连续两三年的大幅下跌，猪价持续在平均成本线之下，2024年猪价应该会有反弹，预计2024年全年猪肉均价有望超过2023年，并且高于全年的养殖成本，看好出栏量增长较快的养殖企业。而2024年粮食价格有望维持在景气高位，与粮食种植相关的农资行业在PPI价格回升的市场环境下会引来盈利的修复，值得关注。必选消费相关的肉制品和乳制品凭借盈利的确定性和较低的估值有望成为表现较好的农业板块。","fund":{"_id":3000000001579,"stockCode":"001579","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":70,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":204251000,"market":"a","tickerId":1579,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"国泰大农业股票(001579)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":1796,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:04:54.502Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰大农业股票","pinyin":"gtdnygpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20036910","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":326080050,"name":"程洲"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰大农业股票型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instancei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