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报告期内市场回顾与宏观环境分析　　2025年四季度，全球宏观环境呈现出风险偏好显著提升的特征。全球风险资产进一步走强，一系列宏观因子共振映射到贵金属价格上，推动其屡创新高。这一现象的背后，是市场对未来全球流动性环境即将发生重大变化的提前定价。　　从产业维度看，AI叙事仍在延续，并未出现市场担忧的拐点。互联网巨头仍在进一步加大对电力供应和算力基础设施的布局，产业趋势依然强劲。国内市场方面，市场活跃度回归到3万亿量能的水平，从四季度整体情况观察，实际上行的动能并未出现有力的摇摆。出口数据的持续增长，也构成了当前市场对基本面乐观预期的底层基础和核心动能。　　二、 报告期内投资策略与运作分析　　展望2026年上半年，全球主要经济体或将进入一轮类似2020年疫情初期的货币宽松周期。黄金、比特币等大类资产已经开始提前反映这一全球大放水的预期。　　这一阶段的仓位调整方向主要集中在微笑曲线的两端及战略资源行业：　　1、科技端（自主可控）：我们保留并重点关注科技领域中具备自主可控属性的方向。在AI产业格局不断强化、市场集中度提升的背景下，除了关注全球算力趋势，我们也聚焦于国内能够承接算力国产化、液冷及端侧应用的确定性品种。　　2、品牌端（消费升级）：在消费板块，我们关注品牌附加值的提升。随着情绪消费和新消费趋势的演变，能够穿越周期的不再是单纯的性价比，而是具备全球化能力和强品牌溢价的企业。　　3、战略资源的防御性布局：考虑到地缘政治的不确定性，我们配置了一部分战略金属资源。这不仅是基于供给侧的逻辑，更是作为投资组合中应对极端宏观环境的压舱石。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:54:42.618Z","fund":{"_id":3000000015102,"__csrcFundId":10915,"stockCode":"015102","shortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合(015102)","masterFundShortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15102,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:29:11.443Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":434947942.42,"setUpShares":434947942.42,"pinyin":"dfhesgkcxtzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20293103","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1210209850,"name":"李竞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1456092","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1227fea5b3eb05187d0","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015102,"sao":"三季度，随着英伟达和英特尔，OpenAI和甲骨文的一系列“合纵连横”，带来AI产业格局的不断变化和强化，市场集中度进一步提升；从三季度来看，预期全面景气度改善概率较低，相对偏高的交易环境带来板块之间的分化加剧，三季报业绩变化趋势是当下可能的拐点催化剂，大厂云业务能否加速成为全球关注的核心。　　展望未来，全球或进入大放水周期，美联储主席鲍威尔到点离职后，总统提名的接任者大概率执行不断降息的政策目标；日本新首相作为安倍经济学忠实拥护者，有望重启宽松周期；而美日的货币政策放松，将给中国货币政策放松提供外部环境；因此未来半年内全球或将进入一轮新的货币宽松周期；而黄金比特币等大类资产已经开始提前反映这一预期。　　综合未来可能的地缘冲突加剧包括或有谈判过程的冲突，考虑估值水位和杠杆率相比四月贸易冲突时的明显提升，我们在市场期待TACO的时间窗口，进行了一些结构调整和风险敞口的降低；调整方向主要偏微笑曲线的两端，科技保留自主可控方向和部分消费品牌附加值的提升，以及部分民族主义战略金属资源,为之后或有的冲突加剧未雨绸缪。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:54:42.616Z","fund":{"_id":3000000015102,"__csrcFundId":10915,"stockCode":"015102","shortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合(015102)","masterFundShortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15102,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:29:11.443Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":434947942.42,"setUpShares":434947942.42,"pinyin":"dfhesgkcxtzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20293103","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1210209850,"name":"李竞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1376621","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1227fea5b3eb05187cf","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015102,"sao":"上半年，国内政策、关税、阶段性交易热度反复持续；在“反内卷”的政策精神带动下，商品价格大幅反弹，总体情绪有所回升；欧美经济韧性明显，欧洲的能源成本回落带来一定增量。　　在此背景下，我在一些长逻辑板块调整之后，比如观察到一些偏服务业的刺激、软性的调节措施有效之后，逐步布局一些结构性消费相关头寸；比如科技市场热度一度在新消费及创新药下遇冷，而与此同时海外算力及应用尚在有序发展中，算力成本下降后的行业长期空间也较确定，因此我持续关注AI应用行业的发展进度；随着服务物流和电商行业的再发展，即时零售和传统零售行业会发生较大程度变化，我也关注其未来对全产业的影响趋势。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:54:42.613Z","mo":"宏观背景趋于反复之后，产业线索慢慢浮现，市场关注的着眼点逐步从宏观叙事向中观产业叙事转变，如新消费、AI、创新药变成越来越清晰的核心主线，而不断涌现的智能驾驶、机器人等技术也在确认工业制造业在新技术革命时期的结构变化；因此，聚焦核心资产和放眼未来结构性变化，是我较为明确的策略选择。","fund":{"_id":3000000015102,"__csrcFundId":10915,"stockCode":"015102","shortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合(015102)","masterFundShortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15102,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:29:11.443Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":434947942.42,"setUpShares":434947942.42,"pinyin":"dfhesgkcxtzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20293103","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1210209850,"name":"李竞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1344426","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1227fea5b3eb05187ce","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015102,"sao":"当前美国高关税政策形成的输入性通胀压力持续显性化，构成政策调整的核心约束条件。从产业迁移可行性分析，美国制造业面临劳动力要素成本高企（2024年制造业平均时薪同比+6.8%）、供应链配套完整性不足（关键零部件本土化率普遍低于40%）等结构性壁垒，决定了双边经贸谈判仍存政策博弈空间。但从中长期维度审视，国际政经格局的非稳态特征显著，地缘政治复杂度与政策不确定性溢价将形成市场情绪的持续扰动，需警惕短期风险偏好波动带来的价格偏离，关注情绪极值区域（如VIX指数突破30）的错配机遇。　　同时，国内政策体系正实施跨周期调节：需求端，2024年四季度启动的实物消费补贴政策已验证其有效性（汽车、家电以旧换新拉动相关行业零售额增长15.6%），2025年政策工具箱进一步扩容，涵盖服务消费刺激（如弹性休假制度优化）与产业结构升级支持；供给端，针对先进制造、数字经济等新动能领域的定向扶持持续加码，为经济转型注入确定性增量。　　在此背景下，行业配置逐步转向互联网新消费、先进制造、科技自主可控等新动能领域的适度扩散，形成内需消费和红利打底、成长进攻的哑铃型结构。本基金一边秉持安全边际与未来趋势并重的原则，一边积极探索符合未来产业方向和新消费趋势的投资机会。　　1.港股市场的战略布局：重点关注港股市场的投资机会，尤其是大型标的。港股市场当前估值处于历史低位，而部分优质标的却拥有卓越的基本面表现。随着全球市场波动的逐步平息，港股有望率先走出低谷，迎来价值回归。在一季度相当长一段时间内，持续增持港股资产，看好其长期配置价值。　　2.消费领域的结构性机遇：消费行业是经济增长的重要基石，尽管当前整体经济环境下消费者支出趋于谨慎，但消费领域的结构性机会依然丰富。通过对消费市场的深入研究和挖掘，争取发现那些在细分领域具有独特竞争优势的企业。本基金将持续关注消费升级、新兴消费趋势以及品牌创新等领域，寻找那些能够穿越周期、实现稳健增长的投资标的。　　3.全球化视野下的品牌升级：随着中国制造业的持续升级，高附加值产品的出海步伐不断加快。看好那些在产品力和品牌力上具备全球化竞争力的企业。本基金将重点布局那些能够凭借技术创新、品牌建设以及高效的供应链管理，在全球市场中脱颖而出的品牌企业。　　4.聚焦行业龙头与细分隐形冠军：在投资组合构建中，始终坚持聚焦行业龙头与细分领域的隐形冠军。这些企业往往具备深厚的竞争壁垒和明确的产业趋势，能够在激烈的市场竞争中保持领先地位。本基金将长期持有这些优质标的，并通过动态跟踪技术突破与政策兑现节奏，及时调整投资组合，确保投资决策与市场环境和企业发展相匹配。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:54:42.610Z","fund":{"_id":3000000015102,"__csrcFundId":10915,"stockCode":"015102","shortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合(015102)","masterFundShortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15102,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:29:11.443Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":434947942.42,"setUpShares":434947942.42,"pinyin":"dfhesgkcxtzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20293103","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1210209850,"name":"李竞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1273542","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1227fea5b3eb05187cd","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015102,"sao":"我的组合管理始终遵循经济周期轮动规律，动态优化风险收益比。在近三年宏观环境剧烈波动的背景下，主要采取了三重防御策略：首先聚焦盈利质量优异的核心资产，通过ROIC、自由现金流等指标筛选具备商业护城河的龙头企业；其次在行业配置上构建避风港组合，重点布局一些需求刚性较强、政策风险出清的板块；最后通过个股分散机制，将大部分标的权重控制在5%以内，规避黑天鹅风险。　　随着经济复苏路径逐渐清晰，我观察到部分强周期行业已进入产能出清尾声。当前正以漏斗型框架进行前瞻布局：第一阶段通过供给侧分析锁定产能出清较多的细分领域，第二阶段结合需求端景气度指标筛选弹性标的。在此过程中，行业配置逐步转向互联网新消费、先进制造、科技自主可控等新动能领域的适度扩散，形成消费打底、成长进攻的哑铃型结构。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:54:42.608Z","mo":"我始终秉持安全边际与未来趋势并重的原则，积极探索符合未来产业方向和新消费趋势的投资机会。　　1. 港股市场的战略布局：我重点关注港股市场的投资机会，尤其是大型标的。港股市场当前估值处于历史低位，而部分优质标的却拥有卓越的基本面表现。随着全球市场波动的逐步平息，尤其是“特朗普交易”热度的退潮，港股有望率先走出低谷，迎来价值回归。在过去相当长一段时间内，我持续增持港股资产，坚定看好其长期配置价值。　　2. 消费领域的结构性机遇：消费行业是经济增长的重要基石，尽管当前整体经济环境下消费者支出趋于谨慎，但消费领域的结构性机会依然丰富。我坚信，通过对消费市场的深入研究和挖掘，能够发现那些在细分领域具有独特竞争优势的企业。我将持续关注消费升级、新兴消费趋势以及品牌创新等领域，寻找那些大概率能够穿越周期、实现稳健增长的投资标的。　　3. 全球化视野下的品牌升级：随着中国制造业的持续升级，高附加值产品的出海步伐不断加快。我看好那些在产品力和品牌力上具备全球化竞争力的企业。这些企业不仅在国内市场占据优势地位，更在国际舞台上展现出强大的竞争力。我将重点布局那些能够凭借技术创新、品牌建设以及高效的供应链管理，在全球市场中脱颖而出的品牌企业。　　4. 聚焦行业龙头与细分隐形冠军：在投资组合构建中，我始终坚持聚焦行业龙头与细分领域的隐形冠军。这些企业往往具备深厚的竞争壁垒和明确的产业趋势，能够在激烈的市场竞争中保持领先地位。我将长期持有这些优质标的，并通过动态跟踪技术突破与政策兑现节奏，及时调整投资组合，确保投资决策与市场环境和企业发展相匹配。","fund":{"_id":3000000015102,"__csrcFundId":10915,"stockCode":"015102","shortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合(015102)","masterFundShortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15102,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:29:11.443Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":434947942.42,"setUpShares":434947942.42,"pinyin":"dfhesgkcxtzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20293103","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1210209850,"name":"李竞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1254600","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1227fea5b3eb05187cc","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015102,"sao":"三季度市场先抑后扬，7月份以后资本市场快速下跌，表达了对国内未来整体需求的担忧，过去几周随着国内货币和财政政策出现重大变化，市场预期有明显逆转，投资者情绪也显著提升。短期看市场情绪已释放较多，长期看在整体政策积极转向的背景下，资本市场有望从经济的恢复中走出新的机会。　　随着市场增量资金大幅增加，大概率带来持续活跃度维持高位和震荡上行的动能，情绪的上行较难立即结束。且近期政策有望显著改变市场对国内需求偏弱的预期，也同时让企业家增强再次投入的信心。在此带动下，此前超跌的一些板块（典型代表是A股的食品饮料和港股的连锁餐饮）股价大幅反弹，在基本面改善尚需时日的情况下，估值出现明显修复。需要指出的是，虽然政策方向已经明显反转，但整体很多行业环境和预期仍需一段时间才能恢复。　　在此背景下，报告期内产品仓位呈哑铃型策略，兼顾成长风格和红利风格；一方面依旧关注有确定性股息率的确定性资产，另一方面也积极关注国内受益于人工智能革命的互联网等低估值高竞争力的板块；国庆出行数据显示，居民的消费仍具备相当韧性，对经济复苏、消费复苏节奏加快保持乐观；中长期在保证一定安全边际的前提下， 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居民中长期同比少增1000多亿；  3、大股东净减持大幅减少；  4、能源价格普遍性回落，因为供给问题导致的芯片价格、航运价格也都已明显回落；  5、PPI跌破CPI。  因此，报告期内产品仓位总体略有上升，复苏初期阶段增持具备增强自控可控能力的中国制造，重点配置制造业方向里具备竞争力及护城河的高端制造业，包括新能源电动车等行业，受疫情持续时间和居民资产负债能力影响对消费短期保持一定谨慎，中期关注消费服务及互联网板块里受疫情影响、但市场预期相对合理的板块及公司。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:54:42.583Z","fund":{"_id":3000000015102,"__csrcFundId":10915,"stockCode":"015102","shortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合(015102)","masterFundShortName":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":15102,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:29:11.443Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":434947942.42,"setUpShares":434947942.42,"pinyin":"dfhesgkcxtzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20293103","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1210209850,"name":"李竞"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红ESG可持续投资混合型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=806607","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed1227fea5b3eb05187c3","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000015102,"sao":"报告期内产品处于建仓期，总体上重点配置新能源电动车方向里具备竞争力及护城河的制造业，同时关注消费服务及互联网板块里受疫情影响但市场预期相对合理的板块，增持了部分低估值上游资源品行业，稳步谨慎调整仓位，以减少博弈和疫情带来的损失和波动。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:54:42.577Z","mo":"2022年上半年市场交易呈现明显的波动和分化，大幅调整之后迎来反弹，从宽基指数的动态市盈率来看，创业板指回升到了平均分位水平之上。以新能源为代表的领域也呈现轻微过热状态，从二级行业涨跌幅的标准差来看，当下行业收益率的分裂程度已经接近2020年初。  短期日欧汇率和市场的下跌反映了全球需求的再平衡。从坏处来看，短期全球经济疲弱，最终会反映在海外出口需求的回落过程中。从长期的好处来看，中国经济在全球的位置进一步加强，全球新G2的格局在不断强化。  从出口的反馈上看，海外需求差, 库存偏高显著，后续需求将偏弱。部分生产领域阶段性好转，同比差环比强；同时以光伏为代表的局部新能源领域需求旺盛。因此，当前赛道板块业绩出众的一个核心原因在于经济相对低迷，景气行业偏少。  从资金的供需来看，下半年贸易顺差的下降，资金需求的提升，经济的自身复苏叠加CPI水平向上，整体国内流动性环境更加偏紧。假设持续1年半的收益率下行结束，对于市场偏向高估值的风格也将产生一定程度的影响。  同时，全球商品、权益、债券收益率下跌，市场增加对于衰退的担心最终将影响通胀预期。但随着通胀预期的回落，加息的进程也将大幅缓解，以目前商品价格回落的状态, 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