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从行业来看，红利防御属性的板块如银行、交运等表现不错，AI主题相关的半导体、科技板块涨幅靠前，而市场对宏观经济的担忧则使消费、地产等板块承压。回顾2024年产品主要投资操作，银行和建筑板块略增，维持较高持仓；地产板块持仓有所增加；煤炭板块仓位下降。我们的投资框架和决策原则不变，自下而上寻找有α的好公司，以物超所值的好价格买入，依据标的性价比对持仓进行调整。我们考量每一只个股性价比是否满足要求收益率，持仓板块集中或分散是高性价比的个股堆叠的结果，而非有意为之的行业配置，我们没有看好的板块，只有看好的个股。股价作为性价比的外生变量，我们只须积极应对，投资决策最终目标是优化组合安全边际，提高潜在回报率。银行依然是第一大重仓行业，对于银行股我们观点不变，银行真正的优势应该是活得久的能力。长期来看，银行在资产端很难建立具有差异化的盈利能力，因此我们偏好负债端成本低、资产端收益低、扩张速度慢的银行。","declarationDate":"2025-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:51.825Z","mo":"我们对中国经济的长期前景依然维持乐观判断。过去几十年，中国经济的高速增长主要依赖于人口红利、资源投入和全球化红利，这些驱动因素正在逐渐减弱。未来增长将更多依赖科技创新、产业升级和全要素生产率提升。虽然转型会带来短期阵痛，但从长期来看，它将为中国经济注入更强的韧性和活力。从投研的视角来看，当行业景气时我们往往较难剥离β去甄别和验证企业的α，但是在周期下行时难度就下降不少。在宏观经济暂时承压的当下，我们关注的优质企业竞争优势反而更加稳固，然而市场往往在此时会给出较低的估值，因此我们对优质企业长期预期回报是乐观的。近两年市场对红利资产青睐有加，红利类标的大都录得不错的涨幅，对我们主题类基金的短期业绩来说是“幸运的”，但对于标的的长期潜在回报率而言却是下降的。因此，我们也在不断研究新行业、新标的，扩大优质企业备选库，力求以内部收益率为标尺，动态评估标的性价比，构建潜在回报率最高的投资组合。目前我们对组合持仓的性价比较为满意，对组合长期内部收益率依然乐观，感谢大家的信任。","fund":{"_id":3000000014771,"__csrcFundId":11057,"stockCode":"014771","shortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起(014771)","masterFundShortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14771,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:21:29.007Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","name":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":15,"setUpDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":18519309,"setUpShares":18519309,"pinyin":"zthlyxyncyqhhxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":3,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"},{"stockCode":"db20903956","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2320237710,"name":"王桃"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1244738","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0ef7fea5b3eb05155ac","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014771,"sao":"三季度市场经历持续下跌后在9月末大幅拉升，沪深300指数涨跌幅为16.07%，中证红利指数涨跌幅为6.43%，表现弱于大盘；从行业来看，煤炭、公用事业等行业涨幅垫底，积极的刺激政策扭转悲观预期，市场风险偏好显著上升。三季度我们对持仓进行了小幅调整，主动减持了因股价短期涨幅较大导致分红收益率下降的标的，增持了估值水平更低、潜在回报率更高的标的。我们认为当前经济面临的不利因素大多是周期性的，在新旧动能切换的镇痛期，增速放缓并非“洪水猛兽”，反而是提高发展质量的契机。10月财政部新闻发布会宣布将出台“近年来支持化债力度最大的一项措施”，我们认为这是近期最实质性的利好政策。国有大行和建筑央企在我们持仓中占比较大，在去地产化的进程中，银行息差收窄、建筑央企资产质量下降，充当了经济最后的防护盾。后续如果化债政策能有效落地，对于我们持仓标的的资产质量和企业价值是永久性的上修。当然，在当初做买入决策时，我们的依据并非是这种乐观预期，而是假设最悲观的情景如果发生，买入价格是否仍留有足够的安全边际，这也是我们敢于重仓的原因。怎样与市场共处，是投资理念的选择。我们致力于利用市场的波动定价来等待价值回归，而非通过对边际信息的灵活反应来战胜市场。对我们来说，好资产是穿越周期视角下有超额盈利能力的企业，我们更愿意在“左侧”为拥有好价格的好资产承受风险。在投资的长跑里，最重要的不是某一段路跑出巅峰配速，而是以我们的目标配速到达终点，感谢同路。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:51.820Z","fund":{"_id":3000000014771,"__csrcFundId":11057,"stockCode":"014771","shortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起(014771)","masterFundShortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14771,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:21:29.007Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","name":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":15,"setUpDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":18519309,"setUpShares":18519309,"pinyin":"zthlyxyncyqhhxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":3,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"},{"stockCode":"db20903956","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2320237710,"name":"王桃"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1173928","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0ef7fea5b3eb05155ab","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014771,"sao":"上半年，市场经历反弹后再度回调，沪深300指数涨跌幅为0.89%，中证红利指数涨跌幅为7.75%，表现优于大盘；从行业来看，银行、公用事业等具有红利防御属性的板块相对收益较明显。我们根据标的性价比对持仓进行了调整，把部分A股标的切换到了港股，行业配置比例略有变化。H1商业地产板块持仓有所增加，我们认为优秀的商业地产带来的租金回报所提供的价值支撑比较扎实，结合目前估值水平，投资判断的置信度较高。银行板块持仓占比较高，持仓标的均为稳健龙头大银行。在货币周转速度不变的情况下，货币的供应量大体应该随着名义GDP增长而同步增长，银行作为经济增长的润滑剂、货币的创造者，是长期存续风险最小的行业。然而，由于银行高杠杆经营的商业模式，如果资产端恶化则会遭受较大冲击，因此我们在选择标的时要重点考察银行长期风险管理能力，即负债端低成本、资产端不激进，只要稳健经营活得久，长期来看是不错的优质资产。总体而言，以尽可能低的价格买到尽可能好的资产是我们投资的核心宗旨，在价值投资的框架下，我们挑选出了符合本基金高分红策略的持仓标的，构建满足我们长期要求回报率的投资组合。无论市场风格如何变化，我们都会保持耐心和定力，坚持审慎选股、勤勉跟踪，不负各位持有人的信任。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:51.818Z","mo":"我们对中国经济的长期前景乐观，这种乐观不以经济高速增长为前提，而是以高质量增长为前提。近期，三中全会提出的政策部署充分反映出政策的延续性和稳定性，产业结构转型的大背景下，新产业要争当创新排头兵，老行业要提质增效站好岗。对投资而言，这意味着部分产业正逢需求端的好机遇，还有一些产业将受益于供给端的格局优化。叠加中国股市当前较低的估值水平，我们对A股未来总体回报乐观。","fund":{"_id":3000000014771,"__csrcFundId":11057,"stockCode":"014771","shortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起(014771)","masterFundShortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14771,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:21:29.00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所有期间内，我们对市场以及个股的涨跌从未有过期许，未来也不会有。我们一以贯之的做法都是，不提前预测股价，只根据股价的波动来调整决策。决定一项资产长期回报率的，一是该资产长期创造现金回报的能力，二是买入该资产的价格，我们关注的是“内部收益率”。无论是对A股市场整体，还是对现有组合，我们对当下隐含的内部收益率都充满信心，理由也同样有两方面：一是在景气度下行阶段，很多行业的竞争格局出现了优化迹象，现有组合也在退潮过程中体现出了超额盈利能力；二是当前的股票估值水平较低。简而言之，如果目标是以尽可能低的价格买尽可能好的资产，当前是不错的机会，我们也将这个乐观观点转化为了进取的仓位，有限的决策也多呈现为根据个股涨跌变化做些适度微调。身处信息爆炸的时代，悲观者看到的是挑战，乐观者看到的是机遇。除了投资机遇之外，每当市场流传“这次不一样”之际，也都是难得的学习机遇。我们将坚持如下原则：多观察，少决策；重事实，轻判断；在认知上保持思想开放，在决策上坚持逻辑封闭。耐心是长期投资的利器。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:51.810Z","fund":{"_id":3000000014771,"__csrcFundId":11057,"stockCode":"014771","shortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起(014771)","masterFundShortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14771,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:21:29.007Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","name":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":15,"setUpDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":18519309,"setUpShares":18519309,"pinyin":"zthlyxyncyqhhxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":3,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"},{"stockCode":"db20903956","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2320237710,"name":"王桃"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=989267","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0ef7fea5b3eb05155a7","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014771,"sao":"上半年股票市场经历了由乐观转为悲观的过程，年初期待的基本面强复苏未落地，上市公司业绩不达预期是主旋律，在缺乏基本面主线的背景下，个别主题成为资金避风港，此消彼长之下几家欢喜几家愁。在我们的框架中，市场是拿来应对的，不是用来预测的。因为价值的决定因素是长期变量，而非短期变量，所以股价涨未来潜在回报率就下降，反之则反。进而我们的操作也呈现出“被动交易”的特征，跌了就多买点。因此，报告期末我们的股票总持仓比例达到了历史较高位，也表达了我们对长期回报的信心。但基金经理个人信心的强弱又与未来回报无关，所以在作决策前就不仅要判断一只股票的价值，还要判断自己的判断。在方法上我们引入了安全边际，不以好公司的价格去买自认为的好公司，因为一来自己的判断会错，二来即便以好公司的价格买到了真的好公司，超额收益也无从说起。所以我们的持仓往往非主流，且对估值较苛刻，这背后不是刻意标新立异，只是出于谨慎和对不确定性的敬畏。未来我们也会一如既往地谨慎，研究对象不止于股票，还包括我们自己。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:51.807Z","mo":"对我们来说，股市的阶段性涨跌不可预测，但一些长期宏观的判断可以尝试，因为有历史数据表明的先验概率来支撑。首先，我们对中国经济的长期前景乐观。这种乐观不以经济高速增长为前提，而是以高质量增长为前提。新兴行业驱动的产业升级为其一，传统行业的提质增效为其二。其次，以上一点为基础，叠加中国股市当前较低的估值水平，我们对A股未来总体回报乐观。背后的基本原理是，一国股市的长期回报不取决于GDP增速，而取决于上市公司未来的盈利能力和当前的估值水平。再次，无论是新兴的成长型企业还是传统的价值型企业，只要竞争优势明确且长期可持续，加之价格合适，就都能提供好的长期回报，跟股票的风格以及所属行业无关，所以做风格和行业层面的配置决策必要性不高。最后，真正优秀的企业很少，长期优秀的更少，不能因宏观上的乐观来放弃微观上的谨慎。在具体投资决策中，我们将对基本面和价格都保持苛刻，一要擦亮眼睛，二要管住手。","fund":{"_id":3000000014771,"__csrcFundId":11057,"stockCode":"014771","shortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起(014771)","masterFundShortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14771,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:21:29.007Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","name":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":15,"setUpDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":18519309,"setUpShares":18519309,"pinyin":"zthlyxyncyqhhxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":3,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"},{"stockCode":"db20903956","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2320237710,"name":"王桃"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=955468","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0ef7fea5b3eb05155a6","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014771,"sao":"一季度的市场走势再次佐证了一个道理，即市场是难以预测的。迄今为止，表现最好的是AI相关板块，这在今年初是想象不到的。就好比去年初我们想象不到俄乌冲突，和后来的疫情。AI或许是科技发展进程中最重要的事件之一，但要搞清楚它对投资有哪些影响却很难。利润在产业链不同环节之间将如何分配？市场当前认为的受益环节是否能如愿受益？它的“智能”水平达到了什么程度以及渗透率将多快提升？都是很容易让人兴奋、可细说起来又让人不明就里的难题。谈资和投资之间，隔着一道鸿沟。价值投资的基本原理告诉我们，价值会随着时间增长，而非随着利润波动。所以在海量信息中，我们需要重点关注长期因素，淡化短期因素。人工智能的发展是一个长期因素，我们还没有足够的把握去捕捉到它带来的投资机会，但可以尽量回避它带来的伤害。以尽可能低的价格买尽可能好的资产，是我们的投资目标。好资产的标准是活得久、站得牢、竞争优势维持得长、平均净资产收益率高，以及在好的公司治理加持下能够把长期利润转化为诱人分红。所以，我们会一如既往，不去猜测和追逐市场热点。过去的一个季度，我们的组合没有大的变化，是因为长期观点没有大的变化。对中国经济的长期乐观，结合当前市场提供的较低估值水平，让我们可以在热点不断切换的市场中保持平和。但投资是一项苦差事，需要随时准备证伪自己的观点，需要保持学习，永远没有躺平的一天。","declarationDate":"2023-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:51.802Z","fund":{"_id":3000000014771,"__csrcFundId":11057,"stockCode":"014771","shortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起(014771)","masterFundShortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14771,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:21:29.007Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","name":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":15,"setUpDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":18519309,"setUpShares":18519309,"pinyin":"zthlyxyncyqhhxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":3,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20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放大它的优点，没有太多可失去的，不确定性就关乎能得到多少。不贪心，就无需用百米冲刺的节奏去跑一场马拉松。所以，下半年行情会如何演绎，一点都不重要；下半年如何规划投资，也根本不是问题。下半年我们要做啥，不是现在能规划的，取决于彼时的市场状况，我们笃信：市场只能应对，不能预测。","fund":{"_id":3000000014771,"__csrcFundId":11057,"stockCode":"014771","shortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起(014771)","masterFundShortName":"中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14771,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:21:29.007Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","name":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金","followedNum":15,"setUpDate":"2022-03-23T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":18519309,"setUpShares":18519309,"pinyin":"zthlyxyncyqhhxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":3,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"},{"stockCode":"db20903956","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2320237710,"name":"王桃"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰红利优选一年持有期混合型发起式证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=781268","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}