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on，股市均有较强表现，债市表现偏弱。市场定价逻辑由两个叙事共同贡献，一是Beta叙事，全球极致宽松环境，经济预期改善，财政预期宽松，货币延续降息；二是Alpha叙事，中美资本市场极致“K型”分化，美国是AI和非AI，中国是外需/科技和内需/地产。本报告期内，本基金仍然采取较为分散的配置方式，配置行业较多，其中配置较重的是养殖、新能源等行业。其中新能源我们主要配置的是储能与风电，新能源经历了长达3年的行业下行期，有望逐步走向反转，开启新一轮中长周期的上行期。就新能源行业内部来看，不同细分方向因为下游需求增速和供给格局不同，进入反转通道的顺序也不一样，我们对反转时间顺序的判断是储能早于海风，海风早于光伏；预期储能、海风当前已经进入景气周期，预计光伏主产业链2026年初也会进入反转区间。从行业所处周期类比来看，2025年的储能类似于2017年的光伏、2020年的电动车；价格下降催生需求爆发，国内外需求共振。国内和欧洲在风电、光伏大抢装后的迫切消纳需求带来储能放量，美国数据中心大量建设带来储能高增，亚非拉地区再工业化催生大量光储需求。总结来看，未来几年全球储能需求预计会多点开花。在强需求的支撑下，储能板块在2025年三、四季度也经历了一轮较大涨幅。当前时点，我们看好板块下游有壁垒的海外储能集成以及上游资源端。海外储能集成特别是欧美高端市场，需要对当地电网有强认知以及相应pcs的构网能力。上游碳酸锂预计在储能和电动重卡的拉动下会出现紧缺，现货价格有强的向上势能，预期相应股票有较大上行空间。对于养殖，整体猪价下行趋势对供给端形成催化，预计下半年周期反转，对于部分龙头股，即使不考虑周期反转向上的弹性，目前也处于相对底部的价值区间，配置性价比较高。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-30T19:06:57.647Z","mo":"展望2026年，Beta叙事方面，预计特朗普关税政策不确定性进一步下降，美国和欧洲宽财政落地，有助于美国经济在2026年反弹，全球制造业景气适度复苏。预计Fed（美联储）降息1-2次，但降息交易将会反复，最晚2026年下半年会开始定价Fed降息周期停止，市场共识看空美元、看多美元流动性、看多非美市场面临波折。Alpha叙事方面，预计美国AI资本开支偏强且可能继续超预期，产业上有确定性，但由于新技术产生效益的时间与资本市场对新技术回报的预期时间存在差异，资本市场上的AI行情将继续充满分歧，因此资产价格上仍有不确定性，市场会聚焦确定性的部分，比如短缺环节、业绩短期的确定性。中国方面，在关税不确定性下降与全球制造业景气适度复苏的背景下，预计中国出口继续保持韧性并有望超预期。对应内需政策相对克制，传统产业还在弱势阶段，仍需要耐心等待周期反转。","fund":{"_id":3000000014725,"__csrcFundId":11350,"stockCode":"014725","shortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合A","masterFundShortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14725,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:28.864Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-07-25T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"followedNum":2,"setUpDate":"2022-07-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3103350776.36,"setUpShares":3103350776.36,"pinyin":"gfczdlsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801604518","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192310186600,"name":"苏文杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1448907","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0e87fea5b3eb0514dbd","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014725,"sao":"本报告期内，本基金仍然采取较为分散的配置方式，配置行业较多，其中配置较重的是新能源、医药、钢铁等行业。其中新能源我们主要配置的是储能与风电，新能源经历了长达3年的行业下行期，有望逐步走向反转，开启新一轮中长周期的上行期。就新能源行业内部来看，不同细分方向因为下游需求增速和供给格局不同，进入反转通道的顺序也不一样，我们对反转时间顺序的判断是储能>海风>光伏/锂电；预期储能、海风已经进入景气周期，预计光伏主产业链明年初也会进入反转区间。2025年的储能类似于2017年的光伏、2020年的电动车；价格下降催生需求爆发，国内外需求共振。国内和欧洲在风电、光伏大抢装后有迫切的消纳需求带来的储能放量，美国数据中心大量建设带来储能高增，亚非拉地区再工业化催生大量光储需求，总结来看未来几年全球储能需求预计会多点开花。海上风电需求侧同样有强增长逻辑，供给侧清晰稳定。医药方面，我们配置的方向主要是CXO，在国内创新药向海外bd的大浪潮下，整个上游作为创新药后周期会重新活跃，龙头个股估值较低，历史跌幅大，股价仍有向上空间。对于钢铁，随着宏观需求逐步触底好转，供给侧改革推进，板块业绩会有较大弹性。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:44.277Z","fund":{"_id":3000000014725,"__csrcFundId":11350,"stockCode":"014725","shortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合A","masterFundShortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14725,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:28.864Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-07-25T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"followedNum":2,"setUpDate":"2022-07-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3103350776.36,"setUpShares":3103350776.36,"pinyin":"gfczdlsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801604518","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192310186600,"name":"苏文杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1372900","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0e87fea5b3eb0514dbc","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014725,"sao":"报告期内，主要宽基指数表现平稳，上证指数上涨2.76%，创业板指数上涨0.53%，沪深300指数上涨0.03%。行业表现方面，黄金、银行、医药、TMT表现较好，传统顺周期行业表现较差。报告期内本基金配置较重的是新能源、医药行业；阶段性参与金融、钢铁行业。回顾表现来看，银行仍然走强势的单边上行走势，医药结构性行情中创新药表现抢眼。新能源、钢铁行业在国家自上而下高规格、强力度的“防内卷”要求下，微观行业正在逐步走出产能过剩的泥淖，没有竞争力的落后产能在加速退出。对光伏来说现在需要等待的就是下一次行业需求的提升带来供需拐点的出现。随着光储平价在越来越多国家地区实现，光伏需求很快会重回高增通道。对于钢铁，限产的逐步推进，行业供需拐点也将在下半年显现。医药板块在创新药出海，以及医保政策预期放松背景下迎来了较强的反弹。港股部分创新药龙头在一个季度内翻倍，一方面市场对有边际变化的底部资产兴趣较大，另一方面高位的AI、机器人等还是有所担忧。报告期间，行业板块机会层出不穷，同时看到板块轮动有加快的迹象。","declarationDate":"2025-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:44.274Z","mo":"特朗普的政策给全球资本市场带来较大扰动，但同时这种扰动在逐渐变弱，下半年有小波动但大概率继续趋于缓和：对等关税之后，美国政策不确定性可以解释全球/中国经济预期主要的波动，是主要资产价格最重要的波动之源。但往后看，特朗普政策的自相矛盾与约束决定了TACO交易在方向上的持续性。展望全年，今年海外风险趋弱、国内政策相机决策托底以及负债端的支撑更为稳定共同决定了市场的下行风险有限。预计下半年各个阶段都有较为强势的板块和主线。上半年在创新药出海、deepseek时刻等重要事件影响下，科技、医药有很强势表现。展望下半年，一些关键的指标显示当前经济通缩风险并未解除，“反内卷”行动在中央高规格会议中被反复强调，下半年预计会有一系列政策出台依法依规治理产能无序扩张、低价恶性竞争等产业生态，帮助扭转通缩局势。我们梳理发现“反内卷”影响较大的行业有光伏、钢铁、快递物流等行业，在光伏、钢铁行业已经有相关的限产挺价政策出台，后续预计会出现价格扭转向好的示范效应，我们看好“反内卷”作为下半年市场演绎的主线，重点关注钢铁、快递等行业标的。","fund":{"_id":3000000014725,"__csrcFundId":11350,"stockCode":"014725","shortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合A","masterFundShortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14725,"currency":"CNY","maste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板块，CXO下游海外的大药企2024年已经进入到开支上行的修复通道，从板块三季度业绩以及前瞻指标订单来看，也体现出确定性的修复。板块已经连续下跌4年，估值分位数基本历史最低，展望2025年压制因素主要是外部贸易摩擦，但预期已经降到冰点，随着订单业绩的逐步释放，有望迎来业绩估值双升。","declarationDate":"2025-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:44.263Z","mo":"展望2025年，经济仍然要面对需求偏弱和政策加码的宏观背景。当前稳增长政策表态积极，央行继续维系宽松的流动性，财政着力化债，对修复私人部门的资产负债表有较大帮助。预计未来的政策仍然是相机抉择的模式，在经济出现压力的情形下还会不断加码，政策进一步夯实经济底部。2025年经济在外需层面，出口在美国关税反复变化的影响下存在较大的不确定性。在内需层面，私人部门的资产负债表收缩压力减轻，年内可能会经历一段下行再企稳和回暖，企业利润同比有望回正。2025年宏观经济预期会有较多的新变化，预期A股市场也会迎来新机遇。","fund":{"_id":3000000014725,"__csrcFundId":11350,"stockCode":"014725","shortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合A","masterFundShortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14725,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:28.864Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-07-25T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"followedNum":2,"setUpDate":"2022-07-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3103350776.36,"setUpShares":3103350776.36,"pinyin":"gfczdlsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801604518","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192310186600,"name":"苏文杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1252080","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0e87fea5b3eb0514db9","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014725,"sao":"本报告期内，储能板块有较强的修复，主要是上市公司二季度业绩超预期带来了一波板块性的上涨。我们认为，这一轮储能产品降价拉动的需求爆发，与2018年的光伏和2021年电动车产品价格下降拉动需求爆发的内在逻辑类似，都是低渗透率行业的较为陡峭的需求曲线拉动的行业快速增长。这一轮从2023年上半年开始，终端开始累库存，产业端进入下行周期，2024年二季度开始随着亚非拉新兴市场的全面爆发，需求重新迎来一轮高速增长，企业经营业绩重回正常增长轨道。对应到二级市场的表现上，板块的估值修复到一个合理偏低的位置；偏低的原因是经历一轮大的波动，始终对产业的未来前景抱有一定怀疑态度，随着后续业绩的持续兑现，有望消除市场疑虑。光伏主产业链有望在四季度迎来强力修复，供给的剧烈出清仍在进行，中美欧需求的不确定性正在逐一明朗。国内的消纳问题，欧美高利率环境问题预计在2025年都是边际向好的。所以我们认为行业的供需转机在未来半年随时可能会发生，相对应板块的估值修复也会出现。本基金在三季度适当减持了光伏主产业链标的，降低光储配置比重。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:44.260Z","fund":{"_id":3000000014725,"__csrcFundId":11350,"stockCode":"014725","shortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合A","masterFundShortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14725,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:28.864Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-07-25T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050300000,"followedNum":2,"setUpDate":"2022-07-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3103350776.36,"setUpShares":3103350776.36,"pinyin":"gfczdlsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801604518","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192310186600,"name":"苏文杰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1176165","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0e87fea5b3eb0514db8","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014725,"sao":"报告期内，本基金重仓的光伏、储能板块表现仍然较差，市场更多的担忧仍然是产能过剩，市场认为2024年受国内消纳的影响，需求会下滑，海外受欧洲库存影响仍然不乐观。从上半年产业趋势来看，光伏主产业链仍然在剧烈的产能出清中，但储能逆变器板块明显依靠亚非拉等新兴市场的全面爆发已经走出了一轮周期。企业的出货、盈利都在大幅修复，短期市场表现较差可能与市场风格、市场筹码交易等因素有较大关系。这一轮储能产品降价拉动的需求爆发，与2018年的光伏和2021年电动车产品价格下降拉动需求爆发的内在逻辑类似，都是低渗透率的行业较为陡峭的需求曲线拉动的行业快速增长。今年是全球储能（大储+工商储+沪储）启动的元年，我们在光伏储能板块内部也做了一些结构性调整，加大了储能板块的配置。本报告期内，本基金将主仓位基本保持在光储板块，其他配置的方向有医药、农业等行业。生猪板块进入到周期右侧，猪价进入上行通道，主要公司估值处于低位，有望迎来修复。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:53:44.257Z","mo":"国内经济依然处于新旧动能切换期，总需求仍在曲折的修复过程中。一季度经济增速呈现出复苏态势，实际GDP同比增速向上修复到5.3%，工业增加值维持在6.1%以上的水平，全国固定资产投资完成额增速也从3%的低位提升到4.5%，制造业投资有设备更新改造的支撑，增速仍在较高水平。但进入二季度以来，复苏的节奏有所放缓，各项经济增长指标出现回落，说明当前经济复苏仍面临一定阻力。但在政策稳健发力的基础上，经济延续缓慢复苏态势，尾部风险得到控制。517地产政策实施后，6月商品房销售面积环比有明显改善，房价下跌速度放缓。6月基建投资也有所提速，体现出财政支出更加积极。展望下半年，国内经济在政策发力、外需拉动的环境下，预计依然能够延续过去缓慢复苏的态势。经过二季度经济小幅降速，预计三季度宏观政策将加大支持力度，货币政策方面预计将维护市场流动性宽松，财政政策或将加快支出节奏、加快地方专项债发行，进一步支撑基建投资增速回升。地产政策大概率也将持续出台，刺激地产需求和降低地产库存。此外，外需也有望迎来进一步的积极变化。美联储货币政策即将进入降息阶段，对提振海外消费需求、拉动我国商品出口有正面影响。新兴市场国家制造业处于复苏周期，对我国资本品出口形成利好。出口预计依然是下半年经济的重要支撑因素。我们相信下半年经济将继续走出低谷，全年实现GDP目标增速，物价增速也将回到正增长。权益资产当前的估值较低，叠加政策宽松、经济基本面修复等，相信未来依然有较好的机会。海外方面，下半年预计美国仍处于去通胀趋势，货币政策方面有望迎来降息，叠加财政政策较上半年更为宽松，综合测算美国金融条件有一定的宽松空间，经济整体有韧性。结构上，短期利率敏感的商品消费、地产受到高利率压制，降息开启后在中期仍有向上趋势。新兴国家由于提前开启降息，叠加全球产业链重构，制造业复苏进展好于以美国为代表的发达国家。但值得注意的是，在大选扰动、高利率持续和美股集中度过高等影响下，海外宏观的不确定性明显增加。行业板块来看，A股依然延续了强趋势的市场特征。周期类资产已经第四年表现强势，颠覆了传统周期股的运行框架，股价在产品价格上涨过程中不断上涨，在产品价格下跌的过程中演绎出新的红利逻辑。然而我们认为，有较强的永续经营假设能稳定产生高股息的标的是较少的，大多资产仍然是一个周期类资产，分红甚至盈利本身都会受很大的周期扰动。另一延续较强上涨趋势的“AI”板块已连续两年大幅上涨，以海外映射投资为主。光模块/PCB等英伟达链在业绩预期大幅提升的过程中，估值也不断扩张。“果链”预期苹果的AI手机会迎来大的换机潮。所有的预期都建立在AI将带来翻天覆地的革命性变化的基础上，我们对此持谨慎态度。对于光伏储能等新能源板块，在资本市场较多看空的背景下，其股价也调整了近三年，反观产业情况，世界不同地区的需求全面开花，特别是非洲、拉美、东南亚、中东地区，相信板块估值受压制情况在不远的未来会得到改善。","fund":{"_id":3000000014725,"__csrcFundId":11350,"stockCode":"014725","shortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合A","masterFundShortName":"广发成长动力三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14725,"curren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