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时，央行暂停国债买入，流动性呈现紧平衡，中短端调整幅度明显放大。春节前后，AI+机器人领域的突破带动风险偏好持续抬升，叠加经济基本面出现底部回升迹象，且银行负债紧缺导致同业存单价格持续攀升至2%以上，一并导致十债收益率上行至1.75%左右。而两会期间央行重新解读“适度宽松”，双降预期受到快速修正，集中抛压下10/30年活跃券收益率最高至1.90%和2.145%，基本抹去此前30-40bp的降息预期定价。二季度初美国关税事件意外冲击，十债累计下行近20bp，随后进行窄幅盘整。5月初央行宽松货币政策落地，由于降息幅度有限，收益率继续在1.6%上方徘徊。随后中美关税启动谈判机制，一举扭转此前关税互加的僵持局面，长端品种对此持续定价达到10bp左右。不过，考虑到双降落地及资金价格中枢切实下台阶，同时关税谈判尚需一定过程，且二季度经济基本面呈现弱修复及通胀低迷等特征，债市环境显著区别于一季度，收益率调整上限明显压低，故后续市场进入到缓慢修复行情，而十债在向1.6%低位再度靠拢过程中，市场也阶段性犹豫，导致6月后半程交易主线转向利差压缩，非活跃品种表现突出。上半年，信用债表现整体优于利率品种，其中一季度收益率调整幅度多数低于利率，二季度下行幅度则大于利率，部分品种收益率亦创出历史新低。一方面源于上半年市场对资产的配置需求，在利率债调整阶段并未触发连续负反馈，而在市场情绪修复阶段，配置需求再度持续转向兼备利差品种。截至半年末，各期限、等级信用债多数利差已降至历史10%分位以内。报告期内基金以中高等级信用债配置为主，并适度参与利率债及金融债波段交易，杠杆使用率整体适中。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:52:46.343Z","mo":"展望三季度，关税进展、海外降息节奏、楼市局面等因素均有可能对基本面带来扰动，同时伴随供给压力，流动性易松难紧，整体对债市形成较强支撑。与此同时，反内卷抬升商品价格、大型基建项目建设、阶段性避险等预期层面因素可能带来不小压力，但鉴于上述基本面分析，收益率调整上限预计将低于一季度高点。整体上看，三季度债市波动预计将显著放大，注意攻防转换节奏，以灵活应对为主。","fund":{"_id":3000000014388,"__csrcFundId":11246,"stockCode":"014388","shortName":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定开债券发起(014388)","masterFundShortName":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定开债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14388,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:11:26.194Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051050000,"followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1609999500,"setUpShares":1609999500,"pinyin":"bhhjxcyndqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20056223","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1225174270,"name":"李杨"},{"stockCode":"db20749850","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72512204270,"name":"高延龙"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1341972","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0ae7fea5b3eb0511276","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014388,"sao":"一季度，债券市场整体承压，收益率呈现震荡上行局面，一方面资金面维持紧平衡，资金价格中枢有所抬升，另一方面股市风险偏好走强压制债市做多情绪，促使收益率曲线中短端率先反弹，随后长端在3月份跟随大幅调整，但中旬后有所修复，截至季末，10/30年国债收益率分别收于1.81%和2.02%。分阶段来看，年初在降准、降息预期支撑下，收益率续创新低，十债下破1.6%，与此同时，央行暂停国债买入，流动性呈现紧平衡，中短端调整幅度明显放大。春节前后，AI+机器人领域的突破带动风险偏好持续抬升，市场对该新质生产力接棒传统经济充满期待，叠加经济基本面出现底部回升迹象，且银行负债紧缺导致同业存单价格持续攀升至2%以上，一并导致十债收益率上行至1.75%左右。进入3月，虽然资金开始边际走松，但两会期间央行重新解读“适度宽松”，导致市场对双降预期进行快速修正，长端及超长端利率出现集中抛压，10/30年活跃券收益率最高至1.90%和2.145%，基本抹去此前30-40bp的降息预期定价。而冲击过后，央行启动连续净投放，且伴随股市冲高回落以及MLF工具重新定位，债市修复持续至季末。一季度，信用债表现整体相对优于利率品种，收益率上行幅度多数低于利率，一方面源于年初市场对资产的配置需求，在利率债调整阶段并未触发连续负反馈，另一方面，去年四季度以来，信用债并未如利率债过度定价降息幅度，故静态收益率仍维持在相对合理水平。利差来看，相比去年底，本季末信用利差有所压缩，各期限、等级半数已至历史10%分位左右及以内。报告期内基金以中高等级信用债配置为主，并适度参与利率债交易，组合久期在中性范围内灵活摆布，杠杆使用率不高。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:52:46.341Z","fund":{"_id":3000000014388,"__csrcFundId":11246,"stockCode":"014388","shortName":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定开债券发起(014388)","masterFundShortName":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定开债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14388,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:11:26.194Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051050000,"followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1609999500,"setUpShares":1609999500,"pinyin":"bhhjxcyndqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20056223","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1225174270,"name":"李杨"},{"stockCode":"db20749850","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72512204270,"name":"高延龙"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1268821","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0ae7fea5b3eb0511275","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014388,"sao":"2024年国内经济增长和实体融资需求整体偏弱，货币政策处于宽松周期，央行货币政策工具落地使用了降准、降息、买断式逆回购及国债净买入等，债市在资产荒下反复交易宽松预期；与此同时，市场也同样受到过央行多次提示长端风险、稳增长政策密集出台（如调整存量房贷利率）、供给放量、股市风险偏好阶段性抬升等多重因素考验，但在几轮短暂调整后收益率重回下行通道，整体上看全年收益率曲线呈现出平行下移态势。其中，四季度债市表现尤为亮眼，10月底开始股债跷跷板效应减退，市场对后续会议出台超预期政策相对谨慎并抢跑布局年底行情，机构看多情绪逐渐企稳回升；11月下旬以来随着地方债发行落地，和年底中央政治局会议提及“适度宽松”的货币政策，市场加码定价来年降息幅度，收益率启动加速回落行情，截至年底10年和30年国债分别收于1.67%和1.91%历史低位。信用债方面，全年来看，信用表现整体相对弱于利率债，一方面信用债久期优势不及利率品种，故在行情进入加速阶段涨幅受到一定制约；另一方面，在8月份信用利差压缩至极值后安全垫不足，信用债开始持续调整，尤其9月下旬至10月底期间，负反馈压力再度来到信用债，虽然后续跟随利率债修复，但增量资金优先配置于流动性更好的利率债，且一般资质的中长期信用修复更加缓慢，故至年末各期限、等级信用利差离8月份低点抬升幅度仍然较高。报告期内基金以中高等级信用债配置为主，并参与利率债投资交易，组合久期多数时间保持中性水平，杠杆使用适度。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:52:46.338Z","mo":"2025年初始，收益率创下新低后短端率先开启调整行情，其他各期限逐步跟进，央行对流动性的调控为其主要触发因素，同时叠加股市结构性行情带动，整体风险偏好抬升对长端利率构成的压力也有所放大。另外2025年春节后，时紧时松的资金面令市场开始重新评估未来数月央行对流动性的管控力度。不过考虑到两会临近、供给放量，且cd价格来到2%关口，3月份流动性进一步收紧的概率不高，结合中短端点位在2月下旬已经升至去年12月初水平，配置价值显现；而长端情绪上可能仍未释放到位，还需灵活参与交易，做好止盈止损。整体来看，一季度市场调整仍存压力，但若收益率调整至相对高位后，也将带来上半年较好配置时点；与此同时，结合基本面修复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益产品资金抢配30年利率债，导致30年国债收益率持续创下历史新低，其他期限也随之下行。2月政府债供给乏力，资产荒延续，机构配置力量较强，加之投资者对经济趋弱、货币继续宽松的预期较为一致，以及资金面宽松支撑，叠加5年期LPR超预期下调25bp，且部分中小银行跟进下调存款挂牌利率，市场对于银行负债成本进一步降低的预期强化，以上因素共同推动收益率再下台阶。3月初两会经济目标未超预期，央行跟随释放宽松信号，使得十债收益率下至2.25%附近并再创历史新低；而后由于特别国债发行方式和央行调研农商行参与债券投资等市场消息扰动，加之地产局部出现积极信号，且汇率压力抬升，市场情绪开始转向谨慎，债市收益率从快速下行进入多空拉锯的横盘阶段，直至季末。信用债市场一季度整体表现并不弱于利率，尤其各等级3、5年期限品种收益率下行幅度均超过基准利率，故至季末信用利差较去年末进一步压缩；而受制于资金价格仍在相对高位运行，导致1年期信用债下行幅度不及利率品种，信用利差被动走扩。报告期内基金以中高等级信用债和金融债配置为主，其中信用债有所增配，组合久期中性，杠杆水平略高。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:52:46.330Z","fund":{"_id":3000000014388,"__csrcFundId":11246,"stockCode":"014388","shortName":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定开债券发起(014388)","masterFundShortName":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定开债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14388,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:11:26.194Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051050000,"followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1609999500,"setUpShares":1609999500,"pinyin":"bhhjxcyndqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20056223","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1225174270,"name":"李杨"},{"stockCode":"db20749850","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72512204270,"name":"高延龙"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1071157","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0ae7fea5b3eb0511271","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014388,"sao":"2023年，中国债券市场收益率呈现单边回落行情，尤其长端及超长端表现尤为亮眼，30年国债收益率全年大幅下行37bp，10年期国债和国开债下行30bp左右，5、3年期国开债分别下行35bp和20bp，1年期国开和1年期AAA同业存单则小幅回落2-3bp不等，收益率曲线基本以扁平走势为主，背后核心原因为经济基本面呈现弱复苏，全社会融资成本稳中趋降，但同时流动性虽然保持合理充裕，但资金防空转及汇率走势限制了短端利率走低。分阶段来看，上半年债市对于经济复苏预期由强转弱，并进一步担忧经济滑坡，资金面也由紧转松，叠加3月份降准呵护及6月份OMO、MLF超预期降息，二季度债市整体强势上扬，唯有6月降息后出现了阶段性较大幅度回调。三季度，债市呈现先强后弱行情，收益率在8月中旬降息后达到低点，随后在资金收敛、政策频出及经济出现企稳回升等因素影响下，债市开启调整，短端上行幅度明显大于中长端，曲线平坦化加剧。而四季度，基本面及地产并未如期走强复苏，但政府持续加杠杆托底经济，再融资债及国债供给压力较大，资金面持续收敛直至12月，随后通胀数据走弱、政治局及经济工作会议定调偏稳，同时流动性改善、股市下挫、存款利率年内三度调降，共同助推12月债市上涨，10年期国债年底收于2.55%低位水平。信用债方面，一季度信用债已从上年11-12月冲击后持续修复，3月初中高等级短端利差已再一次压至历史低位，而随着利率债走强，信用利差又开始被动走扩。不过，二季度表现则整体弱于利率债品种，仅中高等级短端品种追平利率债表现，主要系在绝对收益率水平偏低位置，市场对于上年理财赎回冲击仍有所顾虑。下半年9月初受到股市、楼市政策集中出台影响，信用债跟随利率债出现了一波大幅调整，过程中类似上年11月理财赎回冲击现象较为有限，故本轮中高等级、中短期限信用债累计调整幅度定格在30-40bp左右。进入四季度，在政府一揽子化债利好背景下，以城投债为代表的信用债表现较好，收益率呈现震荡下行格局，总体表现好于利率品种，其中收益率相对较高的中低等级品种，估值修复力度尤强，信用利差压缩显著。截至年末，1年期中高等级中短期票据绝对收益率接近15%历史分位，3、5年期处于5%左右；利差方面，前者处于15-20%历史分位，后者10-40%不等。报告期内基金以中高等级信用债和金融债配置为主，组合久期中性偏短，杠杆水平适中。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:52:46.327Z","mo":"经过三季度刺激政策集中落地后，经济基本面出现好转，但持续性欠佳，而受困于经济结构单一，后续填补地产回落缺口的经济动能尚不成熟，且地产弱需求、供给端压力及跌价风险互相交织影响，基本面震荡弱复苏趋势有望延续。通胀方面，预计物价短期还将维持低位，再结合总需求反弹力度限制绝对读数，通胀因素对债市影响不大。货币政策方面，预计全年宽松基调不变，再结合去年12月下旬存款利率再度启动下调、2024年1月降准落地以及2月份5年期LPR大幅下调，全社会融资成本稳步下降仍为大趋势，再结合海外市场潜在的降息空间，预计上半年OMO及MLF均有望出现下调，而在此之前，资金价格中枢的变动将较大程度左右债市短端定价。整体来看，2024年上半年收益率预计屡创新低，后续伴随相应政策出台或者经济阶段性修复，预计将会有一定程度震荡反弹，但高度有限。","fund":{"_id":3000000014388,"__csrcFundId":11246,"stockCode":"014388","shortName":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定开债券发起(014388)","masterFundShortName":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定开债券发起","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":14388,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T00:11:26.194Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","inceptionDate":"2022-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051050000,"followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2022-06-13T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1609999500,"setUpShares":1609999500,"pinyin":"bhhjxcyndqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20056223","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1225174270,"name":"李杨"},{"stockCode":"db20749850","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72512204270,"name":"高延龙"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1054895","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed0ae7fea5b3eb0511270","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000014388,"sao":"三季度，债市呈现先强后弱行情，收益率在8月中旬降息后达到低点，随后在资金收敛、政策频出及经济出现企稳回升等因素影响下，债市持续调整，短端上行幅度明显大于中长端，曲线平坦化加剧，至季末1、3、5年国开收益率分别上行16bp、8bp和4bp，10年期国债和国开收益率分别上行4bp和下行3bp。具体来看，7月底政治局会议前，市场预期政策定力较足，叠加资金宽松、地产继续走弱及配置力量较强，收益率稳步下行，但政治局会议超预期定调，尤其地产放松及激活资本市场领域，风险偏好陡升开始压制债市情绪。虽然8月中旬央行意外降息，1年期MLF下调至2.5%，十债收益率也相应下至年内低点2.53%，但市场整体反应相对克制。随后受地方债放量发行及汇率贬值压力掣肘之下，资金面持续收敛直至季末。而在8月底9月初，一周内股市活跃市场及楼市放松政策相继落地，尤其京沪一线城市认房不认贷出台，政策刺激决心显著超市场预期，叠加9月降准利好出尽以及8月份经济数据超预期，债市情绪进一步走弱，各期限收益率持续调整，10年期国债一度成交于2.70%上方。整体来看，三季度债市分水岭实际起于7月政治局会议，市场预期得到修正，后续关注基本面回暖强度。信用债方面，9月初受到股市、楼市政策集中出台影响，信用债跟随利率债出现了一波大幅调整，过程中类似去年11月理财赎回冲击现象较为有限，故本轮中高等级、中短期限信用债累计调整幅度定格在30-40bp左右。报告期内基金以中高等级信用债和金融债配置为主，组合久期及杠杆均处于中等水平。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:52:46.324Z","fund":{"_id":3000000014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