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价值风格，创业板明显强于主板，走出了近十年来最大的季度涨幅。股市大涨的原因，一是政策面上高层定调明确了政策方向，提振了市场信心，二是资金面上国内货币政策宽松，国外美元走弱，双重因素推动资金涌入股市，三是基本面上一些重点产业出现技术突破，极大推高科技股估值，四是博弈面上资金轮动明显，阶段性财富效应突出，市场情绪空前高涨。本组合的权益部分，7-8月份维持了稀土ETF为主、黄金股和创新药为辅的持仓结构，获得了较好的收益，9月初及时转换为黄金股ETF为主、锂电池和稀土为辅的持仓，避开了稀土的月度调整，及时把握了锂电池的阶段性行情。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:18:55.600Z","fund":{"_id":3000000501220,"__csrcFundId":11204,"stockCode":"501220","shortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）(501220)","masterFundShortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）","fundSecondLevel":"fof","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":501220,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T07:28:30.852Z","status":"normal","exchange":"sh","inceptionDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","name":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）","setUpDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":224963574.64,"setUpShares":224963574.64,"pinyin":"gthyldgpxjjzjj(fof-lof)","followedNum":5,"lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20921063","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608232790,"name":"曾辉"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1377381","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed6cf7fea5b3eb0573ebb","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000501220,"sao":"本报告期内，股市整体呈现为1季度和2季度每个季度初（1月份和4月份）表现弱、每季度剩余2个月份表现强的特征。2季度表现比1季度强，尤其是6月份的上涨开始突破上半年的盘局。基本面决定了市场波动的中轴，政策面决定了市场波动的上下限，资金面和博弈面决定了市场波动的节奏，使得大盘上半年整体涨幅很小的同时，结构性行情非常亮眼。行业层面，驱动股价上涨的盈利增长和估值扩张这两个因素中，估值扩张明显占优，因此阶段性大涨，但很快又因盈利不达预期而估值收缩，带来股价回落。本组合的权益部分，在1季度加大了对黄金股资产的配置，在2季度加大了对稀土资产的配置。","declarationDate":"2025-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:18:55.597Z","mo":"展望下阶段，股市方面，我们判断市场的主要风险，已经由过去几年的宏观系统性风险，转变为中观行业轮动踏空风险。4月初关税战冲击是一个很好的例子，证明了股市即使遭遇了较大的外部冲击，整体风险也是可控的。从1季度的机器人，到2季度港股创新药，行业短期暴涨（暴跌）、行业轮动速度明显加快、持续时间缩短，则表明目前市场的主要风险是结构性的中观行业踏空风险。股市下半年的整体表现，可能因国外美联储降息周期到来、国内补库存周期持续、反内卷等因素而好于上半年。股市中观行业方面，行业轮动表现呈现短期化、波动大特征，按照我们的超涨-超跌投资框架，我们判断市场风格可能会从超涨转向超跌，市场会挖掘更多因政策或其他利好因素触底的超跌行业。本组合权益部分的下阶段操作，既要基于超涨-超跌的投资框架，以及近期行业轮动短期化的特点，更多关注极端超跌行业的触底机会；也要两手抓周期产业群和成长产业群，两手都要硬，根据原则-量化体系做好权衡和布局。在股价的基本面盈利和估值扩张的双重定价因素中，我们会更加看重基本面改善、确定性高的行业，然后才是估值的扩张。首先，我们继续看好成长产业群的新材料行业（如稀土，带有周期产业群资源上游的特质，也包括极端超跌的光伏和碳酸锂），稀土的核心投资逻辑是近20年的供给侧改革逼近拐点将带来稀土价格尤其是中重稀土的价格回归，国外重建稀土产业链无论是从提纯技术、人才储备、还是资金投入、下游客户市场规模效应等多个角度均短期不可行，稀土的战略价值推动行业控制力大幅提升、行业供给有序收缩，物以稀为贵从而未来中期上涨周期有望开启。其次，我们看好周期产业群方面、同样基本面改善确定性高的金银等资源上游行业，黄金和白银的现货价格已经改善明显，但A股的金银股明显滞后于金属价格，也明显弱于港股。伴随美元的中期走弱，资源上游行业也值得持续关注。第三，我们也看好连跌4年、超跌方向的创新药方向尤其是港股创新药，一个行业的行情能否持续取决于是否有世界级竞争力的企业，而港股创新药正在涌现一批这种企业。第四，我们也高度关注政策影响较大的金融地产产业链，A股要摆脱上半年的盘局上一个台阶，出台新的政策刺激加快经济复苏必不可少，我们看到港股非银和地产今年上半年的走势反映了相关的乐观预期，A股地产很可能从目前极低的破产定价向非破产定价回归。另外，股市的全面复苏，也需要沉寂已久的新能源行业包括光伏和锂电池触底回升，而反内卷则强力推进了这一进程。","fund":{"_id":3000000501220,"__csrcFundId":11204,"stockCode":"501220","shortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）(501220)","masterFundShortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）","fundSecondLevel":"fof","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":501220,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T07:28:30.852Z","status":"normal","exchange":"sh","inceptionDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","name":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）","setUpDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":224963574.64,"setUpShares":224963574.64,"pinyin":"gthyldgpxjjzjj(fof-lof)","followedNum":5,"lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20921063","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608232790,"name":"曾辉"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1347783","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed6cf7fea5b3eb0573eba","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000501220,"sao":"本报告期内，A股延续去年4季度以来的弱势整理趋势，易跌难涨，1月前半月明显走弱，但美元指数在1月中旬110附近见顶之后快速下跌，推动基本面和估值面均占优的港股科技股戴维斯双升，大模型和东升西落引爆中国资产重估，迎来一大波上涨行情，并带动A股开始强力反弹，小票成长风格如机器人主题表现抢眼。2月下旬美股明显走熊，港股仍继续向上1个月，终因流动性冲击于3月下旬开始快速回落，也同步带动A股走弱。本报告期内，本组合的权益部分一方面保持了稀土和银行原有的重点持仓，一方面根据市场情况买回了部分恒科恒医仓位并在季度末港股回落时做了减仓处理，另外基于对黄金的强烈看好，加大了有强烈补涨需求的黄金股基金的配置。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:18:55.595Z","fund":{"_id":3000000501220,"__csrcFundId":11204,"stockCode":"501220","shortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）(501220)","masterFundShortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）","fundSecondLevel":"fof","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":501220,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T07:28:30.852Z","status":"normal","exchange":"sh","inceptionDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","name":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）","setUpDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":224963574.64,"setUpShares":224963574.64,"pinyin":"gthyldgpxjjzjj(fof-lof)","followedNum":5,"lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20921063","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608232790,"name":"曾辉"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1271090","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed6cf7fea5b3eb0573eb9","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000501220,"sao":"本报告期内，股市经历了两轮先大跌后大涨：先是年初微盘股策略和量化策略发生恐慌式踩踏，引发市场加速大跌，2月份政策出台和救市资金进场推动股市触底大幅反弹；后有3季度经济低于预期和房地产债务危机冲击，股市再次探底，2季度GDP增速低于预期以及美联储9月19日凌晨开始降息周期促成国内政策转向决心，924新政推动股市9月份大涨、二次探底，只是这次大涨不是反弹，而是扭转了股市3年多下跌趋势的反转。本报告期内，本组合的权益部分在年初的大跌中及时大幅减少了权益仓位，并配置了银行、黄金、煤炭、日经等防御性强的卫星基金和一部分核心基金控制了组合的最大回撤，在2月初的市场底部及时买入了游戏、恒科、整车等基金，2季度把握了黄金有色和海运的投资机会，3季度因重仓房地产导致组合回撤超出预期但3季度末强力修复了组合净值，4季度受地产和恒科的拖累组合净值回撤，布局超跌和景气周期反转的稀土略显保守，错失了4季度AI火热的行情。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:18:55.592Z","mo":"展望下阶段，股市方面，决定股市整体走势的基本面、政策面、资金面和博弈面这4个维度在2025年将更加复杂：政策面和资金面偏多，但是贸易战和美元指数逼近历史高位是两大变数，我们判断新的贸易战将不同于2018年对股市一边倒的冲击，国内政策的对冲将超过外部贸易战的影响，而美元指数短期虽然强势，但是按照美国GDP占全球GDP之比的预期，向上空间不大，人民币也会强于市场主流预期而出现较大的预期差；基本面和博弈面各有一定的不确定因素：基本面需要加强各项政策落地的紧迫性，房地产指数和港股指数领先大盘的回落，以及30年国债的疯狂，显示需要更强的政策加速落地来打破相对悲观的市场情绪和预期。博弈面上，4季度大盘蓝筹和小盘两头独大，显示各有长线资金和散户资金的青睐，但代表市场中坚力量的中盘股受尽冷落，使得代表新质生产力板块虽然努力向上也难以对冲股市整体的逐步滑落。政策的加快落地才能有基本面的明显改善，基本面的改善才能带来博弈面的改善。我们综合判断，股市在24年4季度3次试探性上攻未果，显示短期向上面临较强压制，在后续基本面逐步明朗的等待期内，更多的稳步回落，比如在1季度走出大双底的走势，可以为股市的牛熊切换、基本面的实质性好转，争取更多的时间和提供更扎实的基础。之后股市将逐步稳健爬升，不乏结构性行情。政策面的加快落地，基本面的实质性转好，资金面的流动性空前充裕和无风险利率历史性降低，博弈面的各种投资风格不再偏颇，25年股市行情仍值得期待。本组合权益部分的下阶段操作，我们认为，2025年的权益投资要坚持以下五项投资原则：一是要坚持超涨-超跌的投资框架，超涨-超跌是成长（景气度）投资和价值（周期）投资的结合，是估值扩张和盈利增长两种驱动模式的结合，是趋势投资和安全边际投资的结合，也是稳健投资和弹性投资的结合，根据市场实际灵活分配配置比重；二是完善产业群-产业链的行业比较框架，将30个一级行业和数百个投资主题化繁为简，划分为三大产业群9大产业链，再从9个产业链逐步动态聚焦为5-6个产业链甚至更加集中，做好行业主线的配置或轮动；三是完善核心基金和卫星基金的配置模式，未来一段时间股市波动性仍大，防御性强的主动型核心基金的配置仍必不可少，而借助行业ETF增强组合弹性也是资产配置行业方兴未艾的新方向，相比传统的均衡分散配置明星基金模式，核心-卫星模式中卫星基金的配置仍是未来多资产配置中最重要的决胜手段；四是年化收益和最大回撤的双维投资目标的强化，针对股市波动性和组合回撤扩大的趋势，要进一步通过更严格的回撤目标和更精细的步骤和手段降低市场波动加大给组合带来的影响；五是做好主观和量化的结合，主观侧重中长期投资规律的总结，量化则侧重短期投资趋势和指标并扩张投资方式多样性和促进投资体系的不断进化。我们目前权益部分的组合配置，重点配置成长产业群和价值产业群这两大方向，前者以新材料产业链的稀土为重点（同时也兼有价值产业群的有色上游周期特性），后者以金融地产链的银行为重点，兼海外、红利等资产加强保护。稀土，我们不是简单基于短期贸易战反制概念，更多的基于以下4个长期原因：一是供给端经过十几年的行业整合，稀土上游已经基本形成北轻南重的双寡头垄断格局，下游应用集中到十几家大型玩家，整个行业产能出清格局明显优于其他比较行业；二是需求端电动车风电的老需求加速迭加人形机器人、低空经济的新需求长期空间打开，尤其是人形机器人，将给稀土永磁行业的需求带来刚性的巨大的想象空间；三是价格端目前的价格处于长期底部，距离行业成本不远，与良好的行业供给格局、行业政策的定位形成强烈反差，原材料价格和股价均处于明显的极致超跌区间；四是资产端方面这个行业的国企央企资产整合和行业政策出台在同步加速，但还没有完全体现在上市公司，另外短期缅甸重稀土矿进口受阻构成了严重的供给扰动，这一扰动的后期影响可能超出市场预期。银行，以及海外、红利等资产的配置，主要是因为股市短期触发了宏观风控信号在加速下跌过程中，用防御性的核心基金来减小组合的最大回撤。需要说明的是，之前我们配置的以地产为主、港股为辅的偏政策和基本面的双主线，前期因政策面短期真空期和外资冲击而高位减仓，目前又再次回落到有价值的投资区域，后续待下跌到位和政策加快落地后，我们会低位重新重点配置。另外，我们判断未来美元指数向上空间可能低于市场预期，欧美股市资金高位避险需求也被低估，因此屡创新高的黄金现货、长期滞后表现的黄金股基金乃至更广范围的有色基金也是我们后续关注和配置的重点之一。","fund":{"_id":3000000501220,"__csrcFundId":11204,"stockCode":"501220","shortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）(501220)","masterFundShortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）","fundSecondLevel":"fof","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":501220,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T07:28:30.852Z","status":"normal","exchange":"sh","inceptionDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","name":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）","setUpDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":224963574.64,"setUpShares":224963574.64,"pinyin":"gthyldgpxjjzjj(fof-lof)","followedNum":5,"lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20921063","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608232790,"name":"曾辉"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1253165","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed6cf7fea5b3eb0573eb8","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000501220,"sao":"本报告期内，股市方面，相比2季度股市的震荡下跌，3季度股市以跌为主，延续2季度跌势加速下跌。但在2季度GDP增速低于预期以及美联储9月19日凌晨开始降息周期之后，政策转向决心已下，924新政推动股市触底反转，连续多日大涨使得股市近一年涨幅转正。本组合的权益部分，7月份港股基金率先杀跌，8月份地产基金和其他资产杀跌，使得组合最大回撤超出预期。基于股灾模型我们判断下跌周期临近尾声，以及美联储降息之后国内政策转向窗口打开，我们加仓了破产定价但实际破产概率大幅降低的地产股基金，维持了港股科技和港股创新药基金的配置。随着地产股和港股基金的大幅反弹，本组合也提前市场于9月中旬即见底，强力反弹基本修复了5月份高点以后的业绩回撤，3季度末取得了较好的收益。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:18:55.589Z","fund":{"_id":3000000501220,"__csrcFundId":11204,"stockCode":"501220","shortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）(501220)","masterFundShortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）","fundSecondLevel":"fof","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":501220,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T07:28:30.852Z","status":"normal","exchange":"sh","inceptionDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","name":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）","setUpDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":224963574.64,"setUpShares":224963574.64,"pinyin":"gthyldgpxjjzjj(fof-lof)","followedNum":5,"lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20921063","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608232790,"name":"曾辉"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1175363","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed6cf7fea5b3eb0573eb7","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000501220,"sao":"本报告期内，股市方面，1月份延续去年4季度以来的跌势，微盘股和量化策略发生恐慌式踩踏，引发市场加速大跌。2-3月份救市政策出台、救市资金入市后，股市开始反弹。4月份，经济预期日益悲观、典型房企还债危机产生冲击、国外美元指数强势导致新兴市场资金流出，股市高位震荡。5月20日之后股市颓势尽显，沪深300连跌6周，个股下跌程度并不亚于1月份时的情况。本组合的权益部分，1月中旬，大幅降低了权益仓位和优化持仓结构，以银行、煤炭、黄金、日经等防御性强的卫星基金和一部分防守能力出色的核心权益基金替换了组合内先前的进攻性权益基金，因此有效控制了最大回撤。2月初判断市场见底，在市场较低位置大幅加仓了游戏、恒生科技、整车等权益基金。3月份加大了对黄金现货、黄金股、有色基金的配置，4月份抓住了黄金有色的投资机会，5月份抓住了海运和港股科技的投资机会。1-5月份股市节奏把握较好，但是5月20日之后股市全面回落，我们未能及时大幅降低权益仓位，买入的防御性行业也表现不佳，非常遗憾没有保住1-5月份的胜利果实，使得本组合的回撤超出预期。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:18:55.587Z","mo":"展望下阶段，股市方面，基于基本面、政策面、资金面、博弈面的宏观四因素模型，首先是国外美联储尽管反复，但降息时点确实越来越近，美元回落、资金回流新兴市场利好港股和A股，其次是国内对经济过度悲观的情绪并不理性，作为经济核心问题之一的房地产已经被明确持续出台强力政策来解决，也一定会解决，我们判断未来半年到一年就会出现明显的好转。第三，过去3年半一直是美元指数强、美元资产强、人民币汇率弱、中国资产弱的美强中弱格局，但目前可能处于一个7年周期后半段的复苏早期，未来3年半可能会转变为中强美弱，国内的政策也会加快这一进程。第四，国内投资机构的持仓结构仍不理想，市场增量资金有限。因此，综合这4个方面，我们判断目前股市处于政策允许的下限底部区域，股市将会震荡回升，下半年股市仍有明显的结构性机会。本组合权益部分的下阶段操作，基于目前股市处于政策允许的下限底部区域的判断，触底反弹可能一触而发，我们将加大权益资产的配置，保持之前权益资产进攻的锐度，通过成长和价值两种风格兼有的哑铃型结构：一方面在成长产业群配置深度安全边际、景气明显持续好转的港股科技，以及和港股科技一样同样具有世界竞争力的整车，另一方面在价值产业群配置同样深度安全边际、受政策驱动、破产和流动性危机消退而估值修复、作为经济风向标的房地产，同时密切关注受益于美元回落、欧美股市资金高位溢出避险流向的黄金有色类资产，也关注同为金融地产链的金融和其他红利资产。","fund":{"_id":3000000501220,"__csrcFundId":11204,"stockCode":"501220","shortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）(501220)","masterFundShortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）","fundSecondLevel":"fof","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":501220,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T07:28:30.852Z","status":"normal","exchange":"sh","inceptionDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","name":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）","setUpDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":224963574.64,"setUpShares":224963574.64,"pinyin":"gthyldgpxjjzjj(fof-lof)","followedNum":5,"lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20921063","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608232790,"name":"曾辉"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1147849","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed6cf7fea5b3eb0573eb6","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000501220,"sao":"本报告期内，股市1月份延续去年4季度以来的跌势，微盘股策略和量化策略发生恐慌式踩踏，引发市场加速大跌。1月中旬，基于回撤至上的原则体系和量化体系，以及核心-卫星的操作思路，本组合基于宏观风控原则，明显降低了权益部分仓位，同时大幅优化了持仓结构，以银行、煤炭、黄金、日经等防御性强的卫星基金和一部分防守能力出色的核心基金替换了组合内先前的进攻性仓位，因此有效控制了组合的最大回撤。1月底，在相关政策出台和救市资金进场使得整个市场趋于稳定之后，本组合在2月初及时将效果明显的防御性仓位换回先前的进攻仓位，并在市场较低位置大幅加仓了游戏、恒生科技、整车等相关基金，3月初，本组合又加大了黄金现货、黄金股、有色基金的配置，止盈了游戏和整车等基金，较好的把握了市场轮动节奏。综上所述，本组合1季度坚持了最大回撤和收益两个维度的投资目标，采取了核心-卫星的灵活操作模式，一方面在市场大幅波动时较好的完成了控制最大回撤任务，另一方面在市场大幅波动结束时根据中观行业轮动原则及时切换到了煤炭、游戏、黄金等表现较好的行业，提升了整个组合的业绩弹性。","declarationDate":"2024-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:18:55.580Z","fund":{"_id":3000000501220,"__csrcFundId":11204,"stockCode":"501220","shortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）(501220)","masterFundShortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）","fundSecondLevel":"fof","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":501220,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T07:28:30.852Z","status":"normal","exchange":"sh","inceptionDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","name":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）","setUpDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":224963574.64,"setUpShares":224963574.64,"pinyin":"gthyldgpxjjzjj(fof-lof)","followedNum":5,"lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20921063","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2608232790,"name":"曾辉"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1072278","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed6cf7fea5b3eb0573eb5","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000501220,"sao":"本报告期内，A股市场整体呈现震荡下跌态势，尽管在1月、3月、10月等几个时点出现过阶段性的反弹。从基本面角度来看，2023年开年之际市场乃至部分实体企业对经济复苏的预期较高，一轮阶段性的补库存与A股市场的上涨同步展开。临近2季度，基本面疲弱的现实趋于明显，叠加复杂的外部环境，A股随即开始了震荡乃至下跌的进程。尽管在整个报告期内，决策层对稳增长的诉求逐渐加强，经济在2季度触底后也有所企稳，但由于地产市场下行力度较大，经济复苏始终乏力，也使得A股市场整体表现疲弱。本报告期内，本组合前期重点持有了基建工程、家电、酒等行业ETF，也操作了软件、生物医药、煤炭、光伏、通信等行业ETF，4季度末基于深度安全边际和超跌模式买入了港股、有色、证券等行业ETF。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:18:55.577Z","mo":"展望下阶段，伴随政策加码，经济基本面复苏预期将好于当下，且美联储降息周期逐步开启、外部流动性将明显改善。但基本面和整体流动性双双改善之外，股市机构持仓仍未充分优化到位，股市近2年财富效应不佳，市场情绪仍较低迷，因此预计股市仍将呈现存量博弈特征，但行业分化较大，部分行业见新一轮中长期景气周期起点，有布局机会。在均值回归-超涨超跌的投资框架下，以原则体系和量化体系的方法加强宏观风控和优化行业基金轮动模式，以防御型的行业基金控制最大回撤、以进攻性的卫星基金灵活捕捉股市结构性机会。未来将加大红利风格的煤炭、黄金、有色等配置，逐步建仓中期景气向上或深度超跌的整车、教育等配置，加强组合进攻锐度，同时发挥ETF-FOF真正实现跨市场、多资产配置、快速轮动的特色，力争实现最大回撤和年化收益双重投资目标。","fund":{"_id":3000000501220,"__csrcFundId":11204,"stockCode":"501220","shortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）(501220)","masterFundShortName":"国泰行业轮动股票（FOF-LOF）","fundSecondLevel":"fof","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":501220,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T07:28:30.852Z","status":"normal","exchange":"sh","inceptionDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","name":"国泰行业轮动股票型基金中基金（FOF-LOF）","setUpDate":"2022-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":224963574.64,"setUpShares":224963574.64,"pinyin":"gthyldgpxjjzjj(fof-lof)","followedNum":5,"lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20921063","stockType":"fund_manag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