window.pageData = {"stock":{"_id":3000000013776,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"fundCollection":{"exchange":"jjgs","stockType":"fund_collection","stockCode":"51790000","tickerId":51790000,"name":"中泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司"},"managers":[{"name":"姜诚","stockType":"fund_manager","stockCode":"db20149026","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050}],"hotMetrics":{"fss":{"stockId":3000000013776,"type":"fss","f_s_s_d":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","f_ins_h_s_r":0.4606,"f_ins_h_s_r_c_hy":0.0368,"f_ins_h_s_r_c_1y":0.16660000000000003,"f_ind_h_s_r":0.5394,"f_ind_h_s_r_c_hy":-0.036799999999999944,"f_ind_h_s_r_c_1y":-0.16659999999999997,"f_h_a":59362,"f_h_s_a":26307,"last_data_date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z"},"fpr":{"stockId":3000000013776,"type":"fpr","f_p_r_fys_ssc":8961,"f_p_r_fys_ssrp":0.8052455357142857,"f_p_r_m1_ssc":9322,"f_p_r_m1_ssrp":0.9470013947001394,"f_p_r_m3_ssc":9178,"f_p_r_m3_ssrp":0.8379644764084123,"f_p_r_m6_ssc":8961,"f_p_r_m6_ssrp":0.8047991071428572,"f_p_r_y1_ssc":8436,"f_p_r_y1_ssrp":0.8650859513930054,"f_p_r_y2_ssc":7803,"f_p_r_y2_ssrp":0.8069725711356063,"f_p_r_y3_ssc":7019,"f_p_r_y3_ssrp":0.6399259048161869,"f_cagr_p_r_fs_ssc":9280,"f_cagr_p_r_fs_ssrp":0.661709235909042},"fp":{"stockId":3000000013776,"type":"fp","f_p_r_fys":-0.05035059559009869,"f_p_r_m1":-0.09529175050301797,"f_p_r_m3":-0.06798772904402606,"f_p_r_m6":-0.05035059559009869,"f_p_r_y1":-0.001687388987566374,"f_cagr_p_r_fs":0.0266031836552163,"f_p_r_d1":-0.0066721506260853936,"f_p_r_y2":0.0926321928460343,"f_p_r_y3":0.12129675810473883,"last_data_date":"2026-07-01T16:00:00.000Z","f_i_d":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z"},"ff":{"stockId":3000000013776,"type":"ff","f_m_f":9388508,"f_m_f_r":0.012,"f_c_f":1564751,"f_c_f_r":0.002,"f_m_a_c_f":10953259,"f_m_a_c_f_r":0.014,"f_m_c_f_d":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","f_c_fr":0.002,"f_fr_d":"2026-04-02T16:00:00.000Z","f_m_fr":0.012,"f_mac_fr":0.014},"f_nlacan":{"stockId":3000000013776,"type":"f_nlacan","f_nv_d":"2026-07-01T16:00:00.000Z","f_nv":1.1241,"f_nv_cr":0.014988713318284663},"f_as":{"stockId":3000000013776,"type":"f_as","f_tas":1608451947.6,"f_tas_d":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z"}},"masterSlaveFunds":[{"_id":3000000013777,"name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","stockCode":"013777","tickerId":13777,"shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合C","currency":"CNY","__csrcFundId":10498,"exchange":"jj","lastUpdated":"2025-01-04T00:32:13.648Z","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"followedNum":10,"status":"normal","setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":885089723.69,"setUpShares":885089723.69,"masterFundFlag":null,"activeFundFlag":null,"classificationFlag":null,"closedEnd":null,"etfFundFlag":null,"feederFundFlag":null,"indexFundFlag":null,"lofFundFlag":null,"pensionTargetFlag":null,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj"}],"shareholdings":[{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":1000000000000688,"holdings":20549000,"marketCap":209560191,"netValueRatio":0.1005,"quarterlyChange":-0.057142857142856385,"stock":{"stockCode":"00688","exchange":"hk","stockType":"company","tickerId":688,"name":"中国海外发展"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":601668,"holdings":41305640,"marketCap":206941256,"netValueRatio":0.0993,"quarterlyChange":-0.023391812865496964,"stock":{"stockCode":"601668","exchange":"sh","stockType":"company","tickerId":601668,"name":"中国建筑"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":1000000000001109,"holdings":8160500,"marketCap":206360177,"netValueRatio":0.099,"quarterlyChange":0.05294117647058849,"stock":{"stockCode":"01109","exchange":"hk","stockType":"company","tickerId":1109,"name":"华润置地"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":2078,"holdings":13343241,"marketCap":197880264,"netValueRatio":0.0949,"quarterlyChange":-0.05841269841269858,"stock":{"stockCode":"002078","exchange":"sz","stockType":"company","tickerId":2078,"name":"太阳纸业"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":600036,"holdings":4890949,"marketCap":192312114,"netValueRatio":0.0922,"quarterlyChange":-0.042075079592597375,"stock":{"stockCode":"600036","exchange":"sh","stockType":"company","tickerId":600036,"name":"招商银行"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":1000000000001398,"holdings":31513000,"marketCap":190875406,"netValueRatio":0.0916,"quarterlyChange":0.0912193792547662,"stock":{"stockCode":"01398","exchange":"hk","stockType":"company","tickerId":1398,"name":"工商银行"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":600426,"holdings":4844505,"marketCap":175371081,"netValueRatio":0.0841,"quarterlyChange":0.15176582882596312,"stock":{"stockCode":"600426","exchange":"sh","stockType":"company","tickerId":600426,"name":"华鲁恒升"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":600153,"holdings":13963598,"marketCap":123996750,"netValueRatio":0.0595,"quarterlyChange":-0.01976817702845146,"stock":{"stockCode":"600153","exchange":"sh","stockType":"company","tickerId":600153,"name":"建发股份"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":1000000000000390,"holdings":25373000,"marketCap":90508485,"netValueRatio":0.0434,"quarterlyChange":0.05483028720626559,"stock":{"stockCode":"00390","exchange":"hk","stockType":"company","tickerId":390,"name":"中国中铁"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013776,"stockId":600060,"holdings":3081817,"marketCap":68909428,"netValueRatio":0.0331,"quarterlyChange":-0.07907742998352496,"stock":{"stockCode":"600060","exchange":"sh","stockType":"company","tickerId":600060,"name":"海信视像"}}],"lastFsMetrics":{"latestTurnoverRate":0.7302798038861701,"latestTurnoverRateDate":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z"}},"list":[{"_id":"69e7d5856201787ae129f30c","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"一季度市场走势呈倒“V”字形，地缘政治冲突是主要扰动因素。另一方面，结构性分化依然剧烈，银行指数走出正“V”字形。短期走势的跷跷板效应，恰恰说明股票价格的短期走势不取决于资产的长期价值，而受制于基本面、消息面以及情绪面上的短期变化。我们的组合中也有标的短期受益于地缘冲突带来的资源价格上涨，但能让我们显著上修长期估值的好消息并不多，坏消息也很少。影响一项资产长期价值的是它长期创造现金回报的能力，对应到一只股票上，决定它价值的就是企业的长期竞争优势，竞争优势决定了它的长期盈利能力。如果长期的竞争格局和相对竞争优势都没有显著变化，那企业的价值就没有显著变化。这是我们组合的常态化情况，也是多数股票的常态化情况，纷繁复杂的信息中，对估值有显著影响的不多，噪音却很多。对多数中游制造企业来说，商品价格的涨跌会影响短期利润，但很少影响长期价值。我们组合中的标的多聚焦于内需，制造业方面的配置也偏中游，所以，操作上继续执行一事一议的持股比例与估值水平负相关的操作。结果就是，组合的变化不大，属于微调范畴。与需求相关的基本面陆续出现了一些好消息，但还未到可以实质性上修估值的程度，所以当下我们的对策仍然是多看少动，只应对不预测。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-21T19:52:37.013Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2026年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1469206","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69ca7ba17ecbd37c10afbdfc","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-03-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"2025年是结构性分化的一年，股市整体有不错表现，但大盘价值型风格落后较多，我们的组合在该风格暴露较多，因此也落后较多，幸运的是，在基金利润科目下，又给持有人增加了一些余额。市场的基本面主线依然清晰，有强的自上而下叙事或者有良好利润表现的行业和个股表现更优，但我们的投资框架关注的是如何对一个企业的整个生命周期进行称重，所以与市场热点找不到交集的情况并不罕见。如果长期称重结论没有大的变化，股价的涨跌会导致内部收益率的变化，组合的调整基本上是对这种变化的被动应对，个股的持有比例与它的内部收益率正相关，通常与估值水平负相关。2025年我们这样做，之前的年份也是这样做，未来也会继续这样做。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-30T13:33:21.277Z","mo":"虽然整体增速不高，但中国经济的亮点层出不穷，在地产投资下行的情况下，新兴产业陆续接过接力棒。我们一直坚信中国的产业结构升级必会成功，目前看，正走在成功的路上。但股市表现往往领先于经济，有时出价也十分慷慨，这使得基本面趋势与股票的投资回报并不时刻保持一致。当前估值水平下，已经难言遍地是黄金，对以内部收益率为评估对象的投资人来说，选股的难度显而易见是增大的。从穿越周期的视角来看，我们组合中的α成色依然十足，虽然β有所欠缺，这给了我们坚定持有的底气。只是随着估值水平的上升，适度增加现金头寸也不吃亏。我们会坚持既定原则，根据长期基本面变化及时调整长期估值结论，根据市场变化动态调整个股持仓比例，努力将组合保持在尽可能舒适的状态。舒适的标准不是接下来会涨多少，而是能让人睡安稳觉。","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1450192","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9b4","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"三季度市场整体表现不错，但也有结构性分化，在银行股的拖累下，大盘价值风格甚至有所下跌。我们组合中的股票也涨跌互现，在长期判断不变的情况下，涨得多的就减一些，跌得多的就加一些，整体仓位变化不大，除了基于上述原则的交易和为应对申赎进行的被动交易之外，主动交易频率较低。市场涨势喜人，有观点认为主要是资金面推动的水牛，对此我们并不赞同。以人工智能为引领的各个行业多面临需求的快速爆发，新能源领域的需求扩张也超预期，除地产和高端白酒外，基本面向好是普遍现象。我们认为这一轮有基本面向好的因素，而不只是水牛。我们的组合表现相对“迟钝”，不止是净值涨速较慢，组合本身变化也不大，这与投资框架有关。以基本面为核心的投资者中，有的关注需求的一阶导数（增长率），有的更关注二阶导数（加速度），而我们致力于对未来分红的现值求积分，增速和加速度都不重要。打个比方，我们更在意母鸡在有生之年一共能下多少只蛋，而不太关心它今天、明天以及未来的具体每一天能具体下几只。从这个积分的视角看，上个季度新增信息并不多，我们重点持仓的一些品种即便面临需求端的压力，有的还面临供给的压力，但它们的长期竞争力非但没有变弱，反而在增强，这是未来一共能下多少蛋的核心决定因素。所以，未来我们将继续保持既定的工作节奏，坚持既定的投资原则。一方面不断拓展能力圈，另一方面也要坚持在能力圈里做决策，知识挑难的学，决策找简单的做。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.142Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2025年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1376277","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9b3","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"上半年的市场不平静，有振奋人心的我国人工智能领域的技术突破，有不得人心的美国挑起的关税战，股市却表现出了一定韧性，杠铃两端的科技方向和红利方向都有不错表现，二者分别代表了逆周期和弱周期资产，以地产链为代表的传统顺周期资产表现较低迷。我们的组合在弱周期和顺周期上都有一定程度的暴露，上半年表现不温不火，乏善可陈。但我们的着眼点也不是半年的净值涨跌，而是组合隐含的长期内部收益率。所以在操作上也没有以风格轮动为抓手，而是基于内部收益率和确定性对品种进行排序，并“利用”股价的涨跌进行动态调整，而不是“预判”股价的涨跌，所以上半年整体操作不多。足以让我们大幅修正长期价值评估结论的信息不多，持仓比例与估值水平的负相关操作是可行的老办法。","declarationDate":"2025-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.139Z","mo":"上半年的新增信息中有偏负面的，比如关税战，自入世以来的自由贸易红利期可能变得不那么“自由”，这会让不少企业面临不小的考验，一些业务的长期价值量也确有折损，这让我们在对个别资产进行价值评估时不能掩耳盗铃，须正视难题。但也有新的好消息，在人工智能的软硬件两方面，国内都有重大突破；在供大于求的传统行业中，我们也开始看到格局优化的迹象，虽然时间节点还无法精确把握。我们一直认为，产业结构升级不是“一般将来时”，一直是“现在进行时”；新旧动能切换既是“现在进行时”，又可以说是“现在完成时”。中国经济的竞争力已经不再主要依靠劳动力和环境等资源禀赋，靠的是技术、文化和管理等软实力。在这个过程中，新旧产业中的佼佼者都有望活得越来越好，平庸者也随时可能被淘汰。所以，我们一直在宏观上乐观，微观上谨慎。好企业一定有，但并不是明摆着的，需要擦亮眼睛去精挑细选，有时也需要耐心等待，还需要一点运气。总之，以尽可能低的价格买到尽可能好的资产，是价值投资不变的核心目标，由于当下股票整体不太贵，这个目标有可行性，无论在传统行业还是新兴产业中，都值得去探寻。","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1338809","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9b2","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"一季度市场似乎缺乏清晰的基本面主线，在技术进步的背景下，人工智能和机器人相关领域有不错表现。因为我们组合中的标的整体价格变化不大，所以整体仓位和结构也变化不大，仅在个别标的价格有显著波动时进行了“被动”应对。四月是传统的财报季，叠加贸易战的影响，市场或许会更聚焦于政策对基本面的长中短期影响。但我们更专注于为资产进行称重，而非过度关注阶段性波动。我们不会对企业的利润曲线求解一阶导数（利润增长率）或者二阶导数（增长率的变化率），而是试图对长期分红的现值求解“积分”，所以不太关心增速，更关心竞争格局和竞争优势的结构性变化。在结构性变化的维度内，我们的组合有喜有忧，忧的是一些行业的差竞争格局持续的时间较长，这对长期价值有杀伤；喜的是重点品种的竞争优势在潮水退却后变得更加明显。简而言之，弱β叠加强α，让我们暂无修订长期结论的必要。对贸易战的前景，很难做出准确判断，但我们仍有底气，原因有两方面：一是我国完备的产业链和巨大的内需给经济提供了韧性；二是可运用的政策空间还有很大余量。所以不必急于做判断，后续的操作仍是以多看少动为妙，在研究上则以组合之外为重，一如既往地在新知识领域投入绝大部分研究精力。","declarationDate":"2025-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.136Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1267617","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9b1","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"2024年市场虽有曲折，但仍给投资人提供了不错的涨幅。我们对待市场的态度始终是不预测，只应对，因此在支撑长期价值的因素未发生明显变化时，股价越低买得越多，反之则反。组合整体仓位在一季度末最高，年底略低于一季度末，正是这种“被动应对”的体现。但我们的仓位依然不低，这表明我们对当下组合的长期潜在回报率保持乐观，没必要畏首畏尾。","declarationDate":"2025-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.134Z","mo":"阶段性的景气度对长期价值影响不大，但对股票价格的影响巨大，因此2024年市场主要矛盾似乎仍然是扑朔迷离的基本面。我们不愿对短期财务利润过度解读，但仍试图从中识别出长期结构性变化。从后见之明的视角看，一些顺周期行业呈现出量和价的背离：一方面是实物产出相对较高增长，另一方面是产品价格相对低迷。因此我们看到实际GDP增长并不弱，但名义增长慢于实际增长，企业利润相对更慢。我们推测，这背后的结构性因素或许是长年高资本投入导致的一些产业供需失衡，终端消费者最为受益，投资人相对吃亏，蛋糕持续在变大，蛋糕的切法也在变。这提醒我们，要更加重视体现企业竞争力的α，而不是需求端的β，因为没有哪个行业的需求能够长期高增长，保证长期利润的是企业的竞争优势，保住底线利润的也是企业的竞争优势。所以，尽管我们组合中的若干标的也遭遇了基本面压力，但退潮过程中也体现了更明确的优势，这让我们有勇气继续持有，甚至越跌越买。我们的决策基于称重，而不是趋势，也不具备预判趋势的能力；我们更担心的风险是企业的竞争优势褪色和行业的竞争格局恶化，而不是利润增长失速。总之，我们觉得目前的组合“分量十足”，虽然不知下个季度的利润如何，但相信时间是朋友，而不是敌人。所以，我们会继续保持耐心和警觉，多看少动，宏观上乐观，微观上谨慎，并且尽量让组合保持在能接受下等愿的状态。","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1244737","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9b0","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"近期利好政策密集出台，市场迎来久违的甘霖。短期看，股价的上涨既来自分母端资金的推动，也来自分子端基本面预期的变化。长期看，分母端的变化不影响资产的内在价值，分子端的长期变化更值得重视。在一些前沿行业中，我们看到了技术进步；在另一些传统行业中，我们也观察到格局的优化。产业结构升级顺利推进让我们在宏观层面不必过度担心，格局优化则是微观层面股东价值兑现的现实路径。总之，在分子端我们保持一贯的乐观，在操作上也只会随着股票价格的变化进行“被动”应对：内部收益率越高以及确定性越强的标的，我们持有的比例也会越高，反之则反。在过去的一个季度，我们遵循了这样的操作惯例，未来也会如此。市场偶尔会在炽热和冰冷之间剧烈摆动，但现实世界的变化通常更加平缓，所以需要保持耐心、细心和平常心，决策上多看少动为上策。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.131Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1173926","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9af","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"年初对基本面的乐观期待在上半年没有如约而至，让市场再次遇挫，多数股票下跌，少数股票上涨，投资者不得不在红利风格和为数不多的基本面亮点中寻宝。赚钱不易，从来都不易。在繁杂的信息中，我们选择化繁为简，只关注与“称重”有关的长期变量；在操作上，也以不变应万变，在“重量”不变的情况下，跌得多了就买一点，涨得多了就卖一点。鉴于市场整体呈波动状态，个股整体呈分化状态，过去半年来，我们的组合变化不大，多数时间在进行被动的微调。股市的整体回报，由它包含的底层资产的长期回报和估值水平决定，不由GDP的增长率决定；股票的价值，由它的长期分红水平决定，不由阶段性的利润增速决定；长期分红水平，由企业的相对竞争力决定，不由它所在的赛道和需求空间决定。基于以上原理，“以合适的价格买入优秀的企业”就成为不证自明的道理，像一加一等于二这么简单。可现实一点都不简单，现实是：优秀的企业不多，伟大的企业更少，绝大多数我们曾经认为优秀的企业都不够优秀，绝大多数曾经优秀的企业也优秀得不够久。导致投资者亏钱的，往往不是要买一个好企业的愿望，而是错以好企业的价格买了不那么好的企业。结果与意愿无关，是投资世界中另一个残酷的现实。出于对现实的敬畏，我们从不花好企业的价格买任何一家企业，能承受的极限是以良好企业的价格买自认为优秀的，或者以平庸企业的价格买自认为良好及以上的。这种天上掉馅饼的机会不常有，但现在似乎就有，理由有二：一是股票整体标价较低，更谈不上泡沫化；二是经济增速换档从来都不是消灭好企业的碎石机，而是有助于发现好企业的筛选机。所以，在宏观上我们是乐观的，结构转型进程中新老机遇并存，足够投资人去挖掘；在微观上我们又是谨慎的，时刻提醒自己不要自我感觉良好，自以为找到了好标的。好股票常有，但未必是我的，这句话是我们前进的动力。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.128Z","mo":"我们对中国经济的长期前景乐观，这种乐观不以经济高速增长为前提，而是以高质量增长为前提。近期，三中全会提出的政策部署充分反映出政策的延续性和稳定性，产业结构转型的大背景下，新产业要争当创新排头兵，老行业要提质增效站好岗。对投资而言，这意味着部分产业正逢需求端的好机遇，还有一些产业将受益于供给端的格局优化。叠加中国股市当前较低的估值水平，我们对A股未来总体回报乐观。","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1141374","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9ae","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"一季度我们的组合变化不大，因为需要修正价值判断的有效信息不多。市场仍然磨人，但也露出了曙光。基本面有所复苏，市场参与者们也渐渐接受了不太突出的增长率--过去曾认为不到30%的增速都不算高，现在开始为勉强够到双位数的增长击节叫好。这很合理，一是人的审美具有适应性，可以随背景变化而调整；二是估值水平下来了，虽然增长率G不高，但PE也不高，让PEG可接受，至少看起来如此。股价表现是市场投票的结果，利润增速是核心评价指标。但在称重的逻辑下，长期的分红水平才最重要，而不是利润的波动形态。我们是称重者，关心的不是基本面拐点何时出现以及复苏的斜率有多高，而是拐点的位置有多低，因为低点对应的极差状态是构造安全边际的重要抓手。高考曾经是考前填报志愿，以中榜为目的的保守报考者，会以模考中表现较差的状态为参照，而非发挥最好的那次。目前来看，很多行业最差的状态已过，有些正处于最差状态。有竞争优势的企业在行业低点仍能获得可观利润，它们是大浪淘沙之后的佼佼者，价格又让人放心，是我们格外珍视的好标的。近几年上市公司分红率持续提升，原因一是资本支出需求下降，二是公司治理水平提升。是一件好事儿，毕竟分红是股票价值经济价值的唯一来源。但也不必把短期分红收益率看得过于重要，长期分红能力更重要。一鸟在手和百鸟在林哪个好？取决于每个人对自己捕鸟能力的判断，还有延迟获得能力的强弱；前者反映风险偏好，后者代表折现率。所以，买价值型股票还是成长型股票，是一道主观选择题，而不是是非判断题，但都是技术难度不低的难题。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.125Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1069918","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9ad","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"对很多投资者来说，2023年过得并不平顺：年初期待的基本面强势复苏没有兑现，又遭遇资金外流压力，市场整体估值水平进一步下探，符合传统审美的机构重仓股受伤尤其严重。全年的市场走势，为我们一贯秉持的观点又添加了新的证据，这个观点就是“市场几乎不可预测”，背后的根本原因是人们总自以为是清醒的市场旁观者，但其实他自己就是市场本身——人无法靠未知的事情来预测市场，就如同无法靠左脚踩着右脚步步爬升。虽然组合在2023年略有变化，但我们的投资框架和决策原则却没有变化，那就是基于每一笔资产的性价比来决定对它的持有比例。股价只是决定股票性价比的外生变量，而非一个需要去预测的变量，这就是价值投资的全部要义。我们的组合呈现出一定的“红利”特征，这是自下而上堆叠的结果，并不是刻意为之的策略。价值投资不是红利策略，不是成长策略，不是小市值策略，不是任何一种策略。从结果上看，由于达到甚至超过长期性价比标准的股票较多，组合的整体仓位也较高。截至年底，我们几乎打光了所有子弹，成为同类别基金中的“激进分子”。我们一直认为，稳健不应用低仓位来表达，而应该来自居安思危，来自对重仓股的“丑话说在前头”，来自自己跟自己较劲而不是过度自信和盲目乐观，最终源头是个股的安全边际。经过审慎评估，我们认为目前的组合有较厚的安全边际。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.122Z","mo":"周期性的经济波动通常不影响个股的长期价值，但宏观层面的长期结构性变化是影响企业长期经营的重要外部变量，所以我们聚焦于后者，形成以下几个待修正的粗浅判断。首先，我国的经济总量、老年人口占比和城镇化率等几个指标都不低，这意味着总量层面的高速增长或许会向中高速增长演变。这不是坏事，降速是所有经济体健康发展之后的必然结果，改革开放以来中国持续增长到今天，做不到也不需要继续保持过快增长，过往已取得的成果让当下的政策有底气也有定力。其次，产业结构升级将继续，正如它过去一直在发生。历史经验表明，依靠天然资源的国家更难跨越中等收入陷阱，凭借制造业全球竞争力并能不断升级的国家更有希望，中国显然是后者。产业结构升级的一个附带结果是资本市场中市值权重分布也会升级，新兴产业占比提升，传统产业占比下降。再次，投资回报率不等于市值增长率。如同一只球队中不能所有人都去当前锋，还需要好后卫和好门将，每个角色都有价值。决定长期回报率的是资产的长期质量和今天的买入价格，不是机械的收入或利润增长率，也不是市值增长空间，这是价值投资的基本原理。所以，有的行业受益于需求，有的行业受益于供给，好机会到处有，不必纠结自己的标的是否符合主流审美。最后，国家的各项政策一贯保持着连续性。过去一轮牛熊周期中，很多被投资者视为黑天鹅的事件其实是灰犀牛，世上并没有那么多黑天鹅，如何在不同的时代背景下适时调整关切点，是对投资者研究能力的持续挑战。所以，未来我们会坚持既定框架不动摇，但要允许框架的松散度和柔韧度。作为一个决策系统，它要封闭自洽；作为一个知识系统，它要开放包容。好的投资利器不胜在复杂精密，而胜在适应性。我们将保持学习，与持有人共勉。","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1047270","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9ac","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"3季度A股市场缺乏明确的基本面亮点，整体沉闷，只有个别主题间歇性有所表现。回顾今年以来的市场，整体表现并不算差，多数投资者的体验却不好，原因或许是年初乐观预期的落空：曾经有过的期许，在被剥夺之后品尝到的痛苦，远甚于从未有过期许，芒格称其为“被剥夺超级反应倾向”。对市场涨跌，我们从未有过期许，因为股票内在价值的兑现，并不依赖股价上涨。在过去的一个季度以及自产品成立以来的所有期间内，我们对市场以及个股的涨跌从未有过期许，未来也不会有。我们一以贯之的做法都是，不提前预测股价，只根据股价的波动来调整决策。决定一项资产长期回报率的，一是该资产长期创造现金回报的能力，二是买入该资产的价格，我们关注的是“内部收益率”。无论是对A股市场整体，还是对现有组合，我们对当下隐含的内部收益率都充满信心，理由也同样有两方面：一是在景气度下行阶段，很多行业的竞争格局出现了优化迹象，现有组合也在退潮过程中体现出了超额盈利能力；二是当前的股票估值水平较低。简而言之，如果目标是以尽可能低的价格买尽可能好的资产，当前是不错的机会，我们也将这个乐观观点转化为了进取的仓位，有限的决策也多呈现为根据个股涨跌变化做些适度微调。身处信息爆炸的时代，悲观者看到的是挑战，乐观者看到的是机遇。除了投资机遇之外，每当市场流传“这次不一样”之际，也都是难得的学习机遇。我们将坚持如下原则：多观察，少决策；重事实，轻判断；在认知上保持思想开放，在决策上坚持逻辑封闭。耐心是长期投资的利器。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.120Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=989265","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9ab","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"上半年股票市场经历了由乐观转为悲观的过程，年初期待的基本面强复苏未落地，上市公司业绩不达预期是主旋律，在缺乏基本面主线的背景下，个别主题成为资金避风港，此消彼长之下几家欢喜几家愁。在我们的框架中，市场是拿来应对的，不是用来预测的。因为价值的决定因素是长期变量，而非短期变量，所以股价涨未来潜在回报率就下降，反之则反。进而我们的操作也呈现出“被动交易”的特征，跌了就多买点。因此，报告期末我们的股票总持仓比例达到了历史较高位，也表达了我们对长期回报的信心。但基金经理个人信心的强弱又与未来回报无关，所以在作决策前就不仅要判断一只股票的价值，还要判断自己的判断。在方法上我们引入了安全边际，不以好公司的价格去买自认为的好公司，因为一来自己的判断会错，二来即便以好公司的价格买到了真的好公司，超额收益也无从说起。所以我们的持仓往往非主流，且对估值较苛刻，这背后不是刻意标新立异，只是出于谨慎和对不确定性的敬畏。未来我们也会一如既往地谨慎，研究对象不止于股票，还包括我们自己。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.117Z","mo":"对我们来说，股市的阶段性涨跌不可预测，但一些长期宏观的判断可以尝试，因为有历史数据表明的先验概率来支撑。首先，我们对中国经济的长期前景乐观。这种乐观不以经济高速增长为前提，而是以高质量增长为前提。新兴行业驱动的产业升级为其一，传统行业的提质增效为其二。其次，以上一点为基础，叠加中国股市当前较低的估值水平，我们对A股未来总体回报乐观。背后的基本原理是，一国股市的长期回报不取决于GDP增速，而取决于上市公司未来的盈利能力和当前的估值水平。再次，无论是新兴的成长型企业还是传统的价值型企业，只要竞争优势明确且长期可持续，加之价格合适，就都能提供好的长期回报，跟股票的风格以及所属行业无关，所以做风格和行业层面的配置决策必要性不高。最后，真正优秀的企业很少，长期优秀的更少，不能因宏观上的乐观来放弃微观上的谨慎。在具体投资决策中，我们将对基本面和价格都保持苛刻，一要擦亮眼睛，二要管住手。","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=955466","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9aa","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"一季度的市场走势再次佐证了一个道理，即市场是难以预测的。迄今为止，表现最好的是AI相关板块，这在今年初是想象不到的。就好比去年初我们想象不到俄乌冲突，和后来的疫情。AI或许是科技发展进程中最重要的事件之一，但要搞清楚它对投资有哪些影响却很难。利润在产业链不同环节之间将如何分配？市场当前认为的受益环节是否能如愿受益？它的“智能”水平达到了什么程度以及渗透率将多快提升？都是很容易让人兴奋、可细说起来又让人不明就里的难题。谈资和投资之间，隔着一道鸿沟。价值投资的基本原理告诉我们，价值会随着时间增长，而非随着利润波动。所以在海量信息中，我们需要重点关注长期因素，淡化短期因素。人工智能的发展是一个长期因素，我们还没有足够的把握去捕捉到它带来的投资机会，但可以尽量回避它带来的伤害。以尽可能低的价格买尽可能好的资产，是我们的投资目标。好资产的标准是活得久、站得牢、竞争优势维持得长、平均净资产收益率高，以及在好的公司治理加持下能够把长期利润转化为诱人分红。所以，我们会一如既往，不去猜测和追逐市场热点。过去的一个季度，我们的组合没有大的变化，是因为长期观点没有大的变化。对中国经济的长期乐观，结合当前市场提供的较低估值水平，让我们可以在热点不断切换的市场中保持平和。但投资是一项苦差事，需要随时准备证伪自己的观点，需要保持学习，永远没有躺平的一天。","declarationDate":"2023-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.115Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=879264","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9a9","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"报告期内，本基金坚持既定的长期策略，即不预测市场和股价，对个股的持仓比例与其长期潜在回报率正相关。所以，组合的变动也仅是针对市场变化和个股长期基本面变化所作的被动应对，年度净值增长率也是这种应对措施置于市场结构性分化行情下的被动结果。2022年，市场震荡下跌，除个别行业外，多数行业均录得不同程度跌幅。受益于市场的结构性分化以及被动的左侧交易，我们的组合未遭受明显损失，但不宜过度归因，因为这并非能力使然，更像是随机市场中遇到了好运气。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.112Z","mo":"展望未来，市场的表现基本上取决于目前还不知道的因素，这正是市场很难预测的原因。但剔除掉时间这个约束条件后，对市场做一些长期判断就不太难。从价值投资的基本原理中可以推知：一项资产的长期盈利能力越强，当前价格越低，则潜在回报率越高，与接下来的价格涨跌无关。经济从高速增长向中高速增长转变，促使很多行业从需求端的竞争转向供给端的出清，结果大概率是长期盈利能力的提升。结合当前中国资产相对更低的估值状态，长期潜在回报率大概率乐观，但首先要做好短期波动的准备。这并非意味着我们看空2023年的股市，因为我们既不看空，也不看多，对市场走势进行研判，是我们从不擅长也不打算学习的领域。我们会把更多的精力投入到挖掘并跟踪各个行业中有长期竞争优势并能够将其转化为长期超额盈利能力的企业上，然后耐心等待市场先生出价即可。","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=863060","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9a8","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"三季度市场表现纠结，整体下行态势。由于市场风格的变幻，虽然我们的净值没有特别大的波动，排名却总是上蹿下跳，这深刻说明了一个道理：排名不由自主，全凭市场喜好。市场纠结于需求的拐点，需求依赖于政策：一是稳增长政策，二是防疫政策。所以，月度宏观数据、旬度行业数据、日度疫情数据都成了投资人追逐的边际信息。但如果退回到投资的原点，会发现拐点其实没啥意义。价值是“重量”，而非“趋势”，所以真正重要的是长期结构性因素，而非周期性因素。长期经济增长会降速，这是一个大概率判断。但减速不意味着投资价值的损耗，高速到低速的转换过程虽然是一次性阵痛，长期看存量经济却更可能催生更好的产业格局，更好的产业格局带来更丰厚的利润。长期利润是价值的决定因素，而非过程中的曲线形态。长期回报除了取决于企业价值本身之外，还受制于买入价格，或者简而言之，超额收益来自“物超所值”，也不是过程中的曲线形态。所以我们的目标是以尽可能低的价格买尽可能好的东西，好东西的评价标准是长期重量，而非短期趋势。而低价的好货更多埋藏在市场的偏见之下，所以投资组合形成于对市场的被动应对，而非主动调配，或者说是主观认知和市场出价的交集。这意味着随着环境的变化，我们的组合也会发生变化。不管“深度价值”的准确定义到底是什么，我们都无法保证自己永远深度价值，因为只要是低价的好货，没必要关注它属于哪一个行业哪一种风格。结合竞争力和估值状态，当下的组合比较稳固。至于市场会如何走，无需判断，应对即可。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.109Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=808184","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9a7","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"上半年市场波动较大，一季度剧烈下跌，二季度大幅反弹，在这一过程中，价值型股票表现相对稳定，成长型股票波动更加剧烈。而我们一直以长期视角看问题，并希望股票的价格提供足够保护，结合市场提供的估值水平，与多数同行相比在价值型股票中配置更多，所以显得相对平稳，虽然也并没有什么出色战绩。市场为何会如此波动剧烈？根源或许是投资者整体性的焦虑。焦虑的点在哪里？源自对“效率”的极致追求。效率如何体现？最好是买入即涨，卖出即跌。如何做到买入即涨，卖出即跌？需要在边际信息追逐赛中占先。有哪些边际信息需要关注？不一而足，包括但不限于：货币政策动向，稳增长政策预期及落地效果，疫情的反复，国际资本流动，还有永不缺席的基本面“景气度”。正因为影响因素多，就产生了一种迷惑性现象，即我们很容易做后见之明的事后诸葛亮，却很难当先见之明的预言家。比如，2018年基本面的大底，构成了成长股2019和2020年气势如虹的上涨基础；疲弱的宏观表现让消费股在2021年承压；而电动车销售的持续井喷保障了新能源板块的一骑绝尘；供给端的出清也让资源品走出了结构性牛市……头头是道的解读，没有一点点指导意义，因为决定未来涨跌的信息还在未来，并且不止取决于上述因素会如何演绎，还取决于当前市场价格中反映的市场预期。所以，猜测市场先生将要出啥牌，实际上是高阶博弈，进而内卷，“钱景”也就变得高度不确定。我们很早就放弃了择时，任凭净值在市场波诡云谲中涨跌，而专注于提高长期赚钱的概率。这一投资框架有些剑走偏锋，但很好用——不争胜，更难败；愿意忍受波动，也未必大波动。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.106Z","mo":"立足当下，展望未来，抛开短期预测不谈，从长期看我们依然乐观：一是对中国经济前景乐观，波动在所难免，体量大了长期潜在增长率也会下降，但存量经济下更容易形成好的产业格局，好的产业格局带来更好的资本回报，巨大的内需市场和全球比较优势给优秀企业提供广阔的表演舞台，看空国运者是杞人忧天；二是对组合当下的状态乐观，在安全边际思想指引下，我们一直习惯于发下等愿，重仓一只股票的前提是能容忍它的缺点而不是无限放大它的优点，没有太多可失去的，不确定性就关乎能得到多少。不贪心，就无需用百米冲刺的节奏去跑一场马拉松。所以，下半年行情会如何演绎，一点都不重要；下半年如何规划投资，也根本不是问题。下半年我们要做啥，不是现在能规划的，取决于彼时的市场状况，我们笃信：市场只能应对，不能预测。","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=781266","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed04c7fea5b3eb050a9a6","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013776,"sao":"一季度市场比较折腾，突出表现是“事儿”多：俄乌冲突，疫情重来，美元加息……对多数人来说投资体验不佳，过程充满煎熬。在稳增长预期的带动下，蛰伏多年的传统周期行业有相对更好的表现，押对的人，压力轻一些。我们属于不小心押对的人。之所以是“不小心”，是因为我们从来都不会给市场号脉，不知市场当下的预期是啥，也就更不知超预期的因素在哪。对一个不以“买入即步入上涨通道”为投资目标的人来说，任何时候手中的股票涨了，都是运气，都是不小心押对了注。我们对传统产业的持仓时间不短了，从时效性上看，显然做得不好。但不追求时效性是我们框架的主要特征，我们要的是长期胜率而不是短期效率。一个推论是，市场不是拿来预测的，而是拿来应对的：股票便宜了就多买点，不便宜就少买点，特别贵就不买或者卖。至于接下来是涨是跌，不在我们考虑范围之内。所以，我们在一季度的应对就是坚持个股持仓比例与潜在回报率的正相关操作。大家看到的组合变化，都基于并且只基于这一个原则，与宏观经济走势无关，与利率的周期性波动无关，与上市公司的周期性业绩涨落无关，甚至与俄乌冲突、美元加息也没太大关系。在研究上区分短期周期性因素和长期结构性因素，在决策上坚守价值投资的基本原理，关心的问题就会变少，问题少了就更容易理清。因为投资中真正重要的问题，不是那些看起来很重要却根本搞不清楚的问题，而是少数能把握得住的问题。","declarationDate":"2022-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:51:08.104Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013776,"__csrcFundId":10498,"stockCode":"013776","shortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合(013776)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13776,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:56:06.475Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"masterFundShortName":"中泰兴为价值精选混合","inceptionDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":47,"setUpDate":"2022-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1178258000.12,"setUpShares":1178258000.12,"pinyin":"ztxwjzjxhhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰兴为价值精选混合型证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=722612","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}