window.pageData = {"stock":{"_id":3000000013297,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","fundCollection":{"exchange":"jjgs","stockType":"fund_collection","stockCode":"50940000","tickerId":50940000,"name":"嘉合基金管理有限公司"},"managers":[{"name":"李超","stockType":"fund_manager","stockCode":"db20773430","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710},{"name":"舒烟雨","stockType":"fund_manager","stockCode":"j101020094","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970}],"hotMetrics":{"fss":{"stockId":3000000013297,"type":"fss","f_s_s_d":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","f_ins_h_s_r":1,"f_ins_h_s_r_c_hy":0,"f_ins_h_s_r_c_1y":0,"f_ind_h_s_r":0,"f_ind_h_s_r_c_hy":0,"f_ind_h_s_r_c_1y":0,"f_h_a":202,"f_h_s_a":1255067500,"last_data_date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z"},"fpr":{"stockId":3000000013297,"type":"fpr","f_p_r_fys_ssc":7435,"f_p_r_fys_ssrp":0.16491794457896153,"f_p_r_m1_ssc":7664,"f_p_r_m1_ssrp":0.8811170559832964,"f_p_r_m3_ssc":7559,"f_p_r_m3_ssrp":0.23313045779306696,"f_p_r_m6_ssc":7434,"f_p_r_m6_ssrp":0.14206915108300822,"f_p_r_y1_ssc":6981,"f_p_r_y1_ssrp":0.5055873925501433,"f_p_r_y2_ssc":6066,"f_p_r_y2_ssrp":0.4882110469909316,"f_p_r_y3_ssc":4996,"f_p_r_y3_ssrp":0.2502502502502503,"f_cagr_p_r_fs_ssc":7301,"f_cagr_p_r_fs_ssrp":0.2943835616438356},"fp":{"stockId":3000000013297,"type":"fp","f_p_r_fys":0.02067183462532296,"f_p_r_m1":-0.0004686035613868933,"f_p_r_m3":0.008415279878971171,"f_p_r_m6":0.02067183462532296,"f_p_r_y1":0.016876430205949644,"f_p_r_d1":-0.0009679605072111519,"f_p_r_y2":0.050063016929298154,"f_p_r_y3":0.10699880331481837,"last_data_date":"2026-07-02T16:00:00.000Z","f_i_d":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z"},"ff":{"stockId":3000000013297,"type":"ff","f_m_f":3834696,"f_m_f_r":0.003,"f_c_f":1278232,"f_c_f_r":0.001,"f_m_a_c_f":5112928,"f_m_a_c_f_r":0.004,"f_m_c_f_d":"2025-01-09T16:00:00.000Z","f_c_fr":0.001,"f_fr_d":"2026-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","f_m_fr":0.003,"f_mac_fr":0.004},"f_nlacan":{"stockId":3000000013297,"type":"f_nlacan","f_nv_d":"2026-07-02T16:00:00.000Z","f_nv":1.0665,"f_nv_cr":-0.001591462272982458},"f_as":{"stockId":3000000013297,"type":"f_as","f_tas":1583720039.4876,"f_tas_d":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z"}},"masterSlaveFunds":[],"bondHoldings":[{"_id":"69e8fa901398d798430024c7","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013297,"stockCode":"250205","stockName":"25国开05","holdings":4300000,"marketCap":420705638,"netValueRatio":0.2654,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T16:42:56.064Z"},{"_id":"69e8fa901398d798430024c8","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013297,"stockCode":"230215","stockName":"23国开15","holdings":3000000,"marketCap":322466136,"netValueRatio":0.2034,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T16:42:56.070Z"},{"_id":"69e8fa901398d798430024c9","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013297,"stockCode":"250410","stockName":"25农发10","holdings":2900000,"marketCap":285716501,"netValueRatio":0.1802,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T16:42:56.074Z"},{"_id":"69e8fa901398d798430024ca","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013297,"stockCode":"2520008","stockName":"25桂林银行三农债01","holdings":1500000,"marketCap":153385060,"netValueRatio":0.0968,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T16:42:56.077Z"},{"_id":"69e8fa901398d798430024cb","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000013297,"stockCode":"2228053","stockName":"22农业银行绿色金融债02","holdings":1300000,"marketCap":134167515,"netValueRatio":0.0846,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T16:42:56.080Z"}]},"list":[{"_id":"69e8eb951398d79843fe9451","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"2026年一季度债券市场走势震荡偏强，但呈现出较为明显的结构性特征。信用债表现优于利率债，振幅区间较小，有较强抗跌属性；利率债短端下行幅度显著大于长端，期限利差不断走阔。组合一季度在资金持续宽松背景下抓住配置窗口期，将组合维持中高杠杆和中性偏长久期，为组合增厚收益。展望二季度，债市或将延续震荡局面，难以形成明确的单边趋势。从货币政策来看，央行或继续实行支持性的货币政策立场，流动性整体偏松，债市环境整体偏友好。但随着地缘冲突引发的油价上涨而带来的通胀上升预期等，或将制约收益率大幅下探空间。组合将继续做好品种轮动进行应对。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T15:39:01.155Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2026年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1474498","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb050558c","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"回顾四季度权益市场整体呈现震荡走势，对债券市场的压制作用逐渐减弱，债市在震荡修复中迎来较多结构性机会。本产品在四季度积极抓住信用债行情和久期行情机会，利用波段交易为产品增厚收益。展望2026年一季度，债券市场依旧充满挑战，短期内市场风险偏好较难降低、也会围绕增量政策进行博弈，受到债券供给扰动等，预期市场收益率或维持宽幅震荡，组合倾向于偏低杠杆和中性久期，做好品种轮动进行应对。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.857Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1456300","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb050558b","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"三季度在“反内卷”预期下，权益市场和商品市场出现加速上涨态势，债券市场整体承压，各期限收益率上行幅度较大。随着9月公募基金征求意见稿的出台，债券市场资金进一步被分流，各期限收益率加速上行，10年期国债活跃券从季初1.64%上行至季度末1.78%。与此同时，期限利差、信用利差也进一步走阔，尤其以超长端债券收益率上行幅度更为明显。但反观基本面数据，暂时尚未看到明确反转信号，因此组合在三季度虽较前期降低了组合久期和杠杆，但依旧保持市场中性水平以维持组合的灵活度。展望四季度，权益市场在当下估值不低的情况下，对债券市场压制作用或有所边际减弱，宏观层面仍需数据持续验证，市场收益率突破前期高点或需要超预期事件的催化。但市场风险偏好在短期内较难降低，债券市场增量资金较难在段时间内大量回流，债券收益率或难回前期收益率低点。与此同时，外部也面临关税谈判的反复，预期四季度债券市场收益率或依旧在窄幅空间内震荡，多为结构行情，组合倾向于将维持偏杠杆和中性久期，做好品种轮动进行应对。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.855Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1375014","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb050558a","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"债券市场在经历一季度由流动性收紧、风偏改善以及机构行为等带来的市场持续调整后，二季度债券市场交易主线围绕“关税战”展开，债市在超乎意料的关税冲击下快速修复。本产品在一季度以短久期中高等级信用债为主，杠杆和久期均维持偏低水平；但二季度债市流动性较一季度明显有所改善，且关税事件或将长期扰动，因此二季度提高了组合的久期和杠杆。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.852Z","mo":"展望下半年，随着政府债发行持续放量或阶段性增加供给压力，同时再次面临前期关税谈判推迟带来的扰动，以及是否有超预期政策的出台带来的市场博弈等等。预期下半年债券市场波动率或将会有所抬升，但市场收益率大概率依旧在窄幅空间内震荡，更多为结构行情，组合将倾向于维持中性杠杆和久期，做好品种和期限的轮动进行应对。","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1348434","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505589","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"一季度国内宏观经济整体运行平稳，市场预期有所回暖。房地产市场中二手房销售较好，新房销售企稳，底部基本夯实；基建投资进展较去年略有滞后，但地方政府债务压力得到明显缓解后，基建增速预计将有效回升；居民消费情绪明显回升，娱乐、旅游等服务业消费出现回暖，但价格指标显示目前复苏斜率偏缓；出口方面，虽然关税问题悬而未决，但短期存在一定“抢出口”效应，总体外需强度较高。 经济基本面热度回升，适度宽松的货币政策略有延迟。2024年底中央经济工作会议中时隔14年提出要施行“适度宽松的货币政策”，市场对照2008年和2024年货币政策力度后，大幅提高了对于降息幅度的预期，使得债券收益率出现了明显下降。而进入2025年后，经济基本面企稳回升的征兆增多，伴随文娱、科技等方面的热点增多，短期经济刺激的必要性有所降低，央行货币政策在整个一季度并未出现变化。使得债券市场前期过于乐观的预期有所回落，叠加资金利率和债券收益率的短期错配，使得债券收益率在一季度出现了明显调整。 展望二季度，宏观经济企稳向好的趋势不改，但整体压力较一季度有所增加。一方面，海外关税落地将对出口造成较大扰动，增加完成全年经济目标的难度；另一方面，经济内生动力尚未修复，价格水平偏低和外部干扰下难以自发形成正向循环，仍然需要政策的持续支持。预计在二季度，货币政策将有效配合财政政策发力，进行降息、降准等操作，进而带动债券收益率的渐进下行，同时在适度宽松的货币环境下对债券市场形成持续利好。组合操作上，依然以中高等级信用债配置为主，二季度将积极把握利率债的交易性机会。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.849Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1271881","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505588","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"2024年宏观经济整体呈现“前高，中平，后翘”的走势，特别在三季度末，伴随政治局会议落地的一揽子经济政策有效扭转了市场预期，促进了经济的企稳回升。债券方面，2024年债券收益率基本处于单边下行趋势，直至2025年初出现了短期调整。操作方面，组合持仓涵盖了利率债、地方债、信用债等品种，整体配置较为均衡。当前收益率处于低位，未来组合的调整将更为灵活。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.847Z","mo":"展望2025年，政府工作报告中制定了全年经济增长目标为5.0%左右，全年将施行更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，同时提高赤字率至4.0%、提高了地方政府专项债和超长期建设国债的额度，预计全年经济增长目标顺利完成的概率较大，宏观经济复苏向好的趋势不变。新的一年，经济运转同样面临一些困难和挑战。一方面物价水平尚处在低位，说明总需求仍然偏弱，使得企业的营收增长动能不足、居民收入增长幅度偏缓，经济内生增长动力偏弱，需要宏观政策的持续呵护；另一方面，国际形势持续动荡，新一轮“贸易战”也有愈演愈烈的趋势，可能对我国的进出口贸易造成巨大影响，需要注意其中风险以及对应出台的宏观政策效果。债券收益率2024年基本处于单边下行趋势，而在2025年初出现了短期调整，10年期国债收益率上行约30bp。首先，经济基本面尚需不断夯实，货币政策将灵活适度，全年政策利率仍可能有至少20bp左右的调降空间，对于债券市场仍然是一个友好的环境，对于全年的债券走势仍然保持乐观；其次，由于债券市场维持了较长时间的“牛市”行情，市场的交易氛围较之前有明显提高，导致债券市场行情的演绎越来越“极致”化，波动率和振幅明显抬升，对于交易技巧提出了更高的要求；最后，从宏观周期角度，经济经过了近三年的“固本培元”已基本稳固，进入新周期的概率明显增强，特别是在居民消费、企业创新角度已有一些微观验证，而新周期中整体金融市场的大类资产配置比例将发生明显改变，需要注意这些变化对债券市场可能造成的冲击。","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1253550","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505587","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"3季度以来，基本面和资本市场均发生了较大变化。基本面方面，9月份各项经济指标整体出现探底回升，尤其是消费出现较为明显改善。最重要的是，9月24日的政治局会议极大的改善了市场信心，迅速扭转了此前较为低迷的预期，受此影响，A股出现了显著上涨，同时成交量迅速放大。债券方面，10年期国债收益率在触及2.0%的历史低位后显著抬升。组合操作方面，依然以中高评级信用债持仓为主。前瞻的看，随着各项增量政策的落地，尤其是积极财政政策的推进，预计4季度基本面将开始出现较为明显的改善，各项经济指标有望持续回升。随着经济和通胀的回升，债券市场可能仍将面临一定压力。操作上我们将保持灵活，保证组合流动性。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.844Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1175118","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505586","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"上半年经济数据总体平稳，二季度略有下滑，金融端收缩更为明显，市场预期波折反复。具体来看，一季度实际GDP同比增长5.3%，二季度实际GDP同比增长4.7%，上半年合计同比增长5.0%，基本符合年初既定的经济增长目标。分三大需求来看，上半年固定资产投资同比增长3.9%、社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.7%、出口同比增长3.6%，与之对应的是上半年工业增加值同比增长5.3%、服务业生产指数同比增长4.9%，生产强于需求、数量优于价格的情况较为突出。最后，金融数据波动较大，社融同比增速由年初的9.5%下滑至8.1%、M2同比增速由年初的8.7%下滑至6.2%，M1同比转负，国内信贷传导的阻滞十分明显。综合来看，基于产业链优势和部分高端制造业突破使得我国出口及其带动的制造业投资对国内经济的托底效果明显，导致启动大规模的内需刺激计划一直引而不发，传统动能中的基建和地产持续处于去泡沫去杠杆的进程，造成内需复苏迟缓、信贷创造受阻、各类与货币相关的名义指标持续偏弱的“体虚”状态，使得微观主体对于经济的体感与宏观数据出现了明显差别。固收市场方面，由于基建、地产等信贷大户出现收缩，可配置资产的选择范围快速缩减，过多的资金被动涌入债券市场，带来了债券收益率的持续下行。同样的，由于房地产市场和权益市场表现不佳，短期居民财富载体的空缺导致居民存款大幅度流向债市，进一步压低了债券收益率水平，这样的现象在二季度达到顶峰，直到央行多次表态长端债券收益率已经处于偏低水平。二季度末，市场处于央行基于风险控制和汇率压力的宏观调控和市场“资产荒”压力的深度博弈当中，债券收益率虽波动较大，但总体下行空间较小，曲线整体走陡。组合方面，上半年持仓依然以关注高等级信用债为主，下半年预计仍将保持相应策略，并在利率债交易方面增加灵活度。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.842Z","mo":"往后来看，宏观方面沿着当下趋势继续发展的概率不高，内外部重大事件较为密集，与上半年经济表现可能有明显区别。首先，内需层面政府化债和房地产寻底可能出现阶段性转折。上半年地方政府专项债发行持续低于往年水平势必带来下半年融资强度高于往年，转折契机在于发债堵点由于发行进度压力而得到自上而下的解决，进而打开基建投资的上行空间。地产销售和投资在上半年已有见底信号，降速收窄的趋势较为明显，对于下半年经济的拖累程度将明显弱于上半年，内需中的传统动能将有望得到改善；其次，海外多国政治光谱的改变可能带来外需压力。以美国为例，特朗普倾向于向中国商品征收严苛的关税，可能导致我国出口增长压力大幅增加，进一步增加了国内刺激政策加码的可能性；最后，海外持续近2年的高利率环境有望在2024年下半年反转，外部金融环境压力的缓解一方面能够带来海外资金的流入，另一方面能够给予国内金融政策更多的腾挪空间，有利于国内经济的修复。资本市场角度进行展望，债券市场方面，虽然宏观环境改善可能带来经济增速的企稳回升，但经济低位修复的充分条件是宽松的金融条件，预计短期内债券收益率或低位波动，金融环境改善带来进一步货币政策宽松后有望带来债券市场的再次走强。","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1151420","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505585","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"进入2024年，一季度经济延续复苏态势，整体表现超出市场预期，尤其是出口、消费、制造业投资改善较为明显。房地产市场依然处于调整过程，新房销售依然较为低迷。前瞻的看，随着政策的逐步落地，预计全年经济表现将比较良好，完成5%的增长目标可能性较大。债券市场方面，“资产荒”的逻辑持续演绎，收益率持续下行并持续创下历史新低，期限利差和信用利差也持续压缩。组合方面，债券方面依然以中高评级信用债配置为主。前瞻的看，随着经济的持续复苏，目前收益率处于历史低点，进一步大幅下行的可能性较低，收益率可能将面临一定的上行风险。操作方面，我们仍将继续关注中高评级信用债等。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.839Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1070925","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505584","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"2023年，随着政策的优化调整，经济整体呈现复苏态势，全年GDP同比达到5.2%，各项主要经济指标均出现一定的改善。但由于房地产市场继续调整，销售和投资均出现一定下滑，拖累了融资需求。在市场融资需求较弱的背景下，债券市场在年初短暂走弱以后全年基本呈现较强的走势，收益率持续下行，10年期国债收益率年末逼近2.50%的历史低点。组合管理方面，以中高等级的信用债配置为主，获取稳定的票息收益，并适当参与了利率债的交易性机会。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.836Z","mo":"前瞻的看，2024年我们认为经济或仍将维持复苏态势，GDP同比增速或有望达到5.0%。由于收益率已经处于历史低点，年内进一步大幅下行的空间可能较为有限。","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1055292","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505583","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"三季度，经济依然维持复苏态势，主要经济指标均出现改善，9月份制造业PMI达到50.2，回到荣枯线以上。政策面，随着7月底中央政治局会议的召开，一系列稳经济的政策陆续出台，其中房地产支持政策密集出台。受基本面和政策面的双重影响，债券收益率在三季度先下后上，10年期国债收益率在触及2.55%的低点后反弹至2.70%左右。前瞻的看，我们认为经济复苏仍将维持，但复苏的强度需要进一步观察。债券市场在经过三季度的调整后，收益率逐步具备吸引力。组合管理方面，依然以中高等级信用债配置为主，并把握利率债的交易性机会。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.834Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=987915","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505582","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"今年以来，随着国内政策的调整优化，经济呈现复苏态势，各项经济指标均出现改善。但二季度以来，复苏的动能有所减弱，房地产市场依然较为低迷，出口增速也出现了一定的下滑。债券方面，二季度债券收益率创下20年4月份以来的新低，下半年收益率可能面临一定的回升压力，但是在宽松的流动性支持下，收益率上行的空间可能也较为有限。我们依然看好中高评级中短期限信用债的配置价值，并积极参与利率债的交易性机会。操作上，组合依然以中高评级信用债配置为主，并适当参与利率债的交易性机会。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.831Z","mo":"展望下半年，我们认为，库存周期大概率将在三季度见底回升，经济内生复苏动能将有所增强；另一方面，我们预计更多的经济支持政策将在下半年陆续发布。因此，我们看好下半年经济将有更强的复苏，企业盈利也将开始改善。因此，下半年收益率可能面临一定的回升压力，但是在宽松的流动性支持下，收益率上行的空间可能也较为有限。我们依然看好中高评级中短期限信用债的配置价值，并积极参与利率债的交易性机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=963977","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505581","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"2022年受俄乌冲突、美联储加息等多重不利因素影响，中国经济面临了一定的压力和挑战。我国在去年年底调整、优化了一些政策，而且进入2023年以后，俄乌冲突的影响也显著减小，美联储加息步入尾声，经济如预期开始出现复苏。从一季度的各项经济指标来看，消费和生产复苏明显，房地产市场也开始筑底企稳，出口受美国经济衰退影响出现一定的下滑，整体而言，内需成为拉动经济复苏的核心力量。债券市场方面，一季度债券收益率先上后下，10年期国债收益率维持在2.85%左右，整体来看，一季度债券市场收益率变化不大。操作上，组合依然以中高评级信用债配置为主，并适当参与利率债的交易性机会。前瞻的看，我们认为二季度经济的复苏或将更为有力，债券收益率将可能面临一定的上行压力。操作上，我们仍将以中高评级信用债配置为主，以期获取稳定的票息收益，同时适时参与利率债的交易性机会。","declarationDate":"2023-04-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.828Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=888201","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb0505580","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"2022年受美联储加息、俄乌战争以及疫情三大因素冲击，A股出现了明显下跌，而债券市场在前十个月表现较好，但在最后两个月受房地产政策“三支箭”以及防疫政策的调整优化，收益率出现了明显上行，全年来看，债券市场收益率上行明显。2022年，出现了罕见的“股债双杀”。在操作层面，组合重点以中高评级信用债配置为主，并配置了部分利率债。组合久期和杠杆率整体较为稳健。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.826Z","mo":"展望2023年，随着防疫政策的调整优化，我们认为经济的复苏将是全年的主旋律。房地产市场有望走出去年深度收缩的不利局面，消费将出现较为显著的的反弹，基建投资和制造业投资有望维持高位。但出口受欧美经济走弱全年可能出现负增长。全年来看，我们对经济的复苏充满信心。因此，对于债券市场，我们相对谨慎。操作层面，我们仍将以中高评级信用债配置为主，对于利率债我们整体相对谨慎。组合的久期和杠杆率也会相对保守。","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=870021","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb050557f","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"经历了二季度疫情的影响之后，三季度经济全面企稳回升，各项经济指标明显改善。但美国通胀持续高位，美联储连续大幅度加息，美股持续下行，美债收益率持续走高，包括人民币在内的各主要货币汇率对美元均出现一定幅度下跌。债券市场方面，三季度债券市场先涨后跌。8月份央行意外降息以后，债券收益率出现了较大幅度下行。进入9月份以后，随着经济的企稳和美债收益率的快速上行，债券收益率开始回升。整体而言，整个三季度债券市场依然有不错表现。组合操作方面，配置上组合依然以中高等级信用债和利率债配置为主，并参与了利率债的波段交易。展望四季度，我们认为随着美联储加息进入尾声，人民币汇率有望企稳，对国内债券市场的冲击有望缓解 。预计债券市场在四季度将保持平稳，收益率大幅上行或者大幅下行的可能性都不大。组合配置上，我们仍将以中高等级信用债配置为主，并且积极参与利率债交易性机会。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.823Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=804990","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb050557e","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"进入二季度以来，债券市场面临美债收益率持续下行、流动性环境宽松以及疫情冲击结束经济数据快速修复的三大利空因素逐渐缓释，市场情绪升温，整体债券收益率震荡下行，“资产荒”逻辑再次成为市场交易主线。引起我们特别关注的是，7月底的政治局会议淡化全年增速指标且没有推出进一步经济刺激计划使得市场对于经济复苏的斜率预期大幅下调，债券市场脱离前期2.80%的中枢，打开下行空间，二季度末10年期国债已经下探至2.73%水平附近，接近年内低点。节奏上看，前半段利空消解使得10年期国债收益率由2.85%左右下行至2.78%，属于经济弱复苏预期下的情绪转好带来的收益率下行；后半段由2.78%下行至2.73%属于经济增速预期修正带来的估值中枢重塑影响。前半段下行约7bp，而后半段目前已下行5bp左右，简单线性外推可以认为近期利率下行仍有空间，但整体幅度可控。基金运作上，基于经济复苏尚处于初级阶段，以及央行为促进实体融资保持银行间市场流动性宽松，整体环境对于债券市场较为友好。结合金融数据表现，整体实体融资恢复力度与2020年相比较弱，经济更加类似“U”型复苏，可供投资者选择的标的不多，金融资产供需尚不平衡，债券市场配置价值仍然较强。二季度期间适度拉长久期和提高杠杆以获取更高收益，有效提高了产品收益率。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.820Z","mo":"在不考虑黑天鹅事件的前提下，下半年能够对债券市场基本面形成较大影响的因素不多，主要为经济复苏的节奏判断和通胀走势的判断。经济复苏进度方面，虽然当下大规模刺激出台的可能性已经大幅降低，但经济增速水平回归合理区间的动能与达到合理区间后继续增长的动能量级有较大区别。在今年诸多刺激政策尚未出现明显效果的情形下，实物工作量集中落地并对基本面高频、中频指标形成较大影响的时间仍然需要结合经济数据和产业高频数据进行综合判断。如果数据出现明显修复，债券市场面临的压力较大。通胀方面，国内PPI下行、CPI上行的趋势较为确定，由于同比数据计算中的低基数效应，加之猪肉价格在近期有明显上行，7-9月份CPI数据出现大幅回升的概率较高，简单推算下9月份将为全年高点。此外，通胀走高存在外溢效应，一般来说，假设名义利率不变的情况下通胀走高将降低实际收益率水平，进而需求端增长，也对债券市场存在一定利空。此外，央行在三季度进行了降息操作，债券市场收益率出现快速下行，市场对于货币政策预期已经基本落地，未来博弈重点仍然以基本面修复和通胀水平为主。综合以上分析，下半年债券市场可能面临的利空因素较多，但整体时点判断还需根据后期经济走势和内外部经济形势综合判断，理性10年期国债收益率将维持在2.60%-2.70%水平震荡，经济增速出现拐点时将抬高债券收益率波动区间上限，高点可能出现在月度通胀数据公布前后。通胀高点过后，经济复苏后续动力不足的情况将会凸显，四季度债券收益率有望重新进入下行通道。","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=783920","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb050557d","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"一季度债券市场波动较大，主要是1月份中国人民银行降息导致利率中枢下移，债市整体走牛。2月份之后央行并没有进行更多宽松政策，与市场预期存在一定的落差，结合经济在季度中旬有走强征兆，债券收益率出现较大幅度调整，进而10年期国债在2.80%收益率水平附近震荡。从基本面分析，国内经济面临的“三重压力”尚没有明显缓解，近期疫情多点扩散又造成了我国重要城市暂时性停摆，对于消费、供应链冲击较大，预计短期内经济增长动能较弱；政策面和资金面边际变化不大，“稳增长”叙事背景下政策将持续呵护我国经济复苏，而流动性将在较长时间内保持合理充裕。叠加海外货币政策收缩影响，债券收益率下行动力较足，但受到中美利差限制导致下行空间有限，将保持在当前水平小幅震动。报告期内，组合以配置中高评级信用债配置为主，并适当参与利率波段行情，期间根据市场情况灵活调整组合久期和杠杆水平。总体来看，组合在一季度保持了较为稳定的收益率水平。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.817Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=725947","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff67fea5b3eb050557c","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013297,"sao":"产品成立于2021年9月，处于央行突发性降准之后和“稳增长”政策发力之前，经济增速确定性下行以及后续刺激政策持续出台的可能性较高，对于债券配置处于较为合宜的时点。同时，四季度出现了部分行业债券信用风险事件，在较为完善的信用评价体系和风控体系支持下未对产品的运行造成较多干扰。本报告期内，本基金产品配置以中短久期信用债配置为主，能够同时享受信用债较高的静态收益率以及收益率曲线下移带来的资本利得。产品保持了仓位调整的灵活性，组合配置上维持资产负债匹配原则。在信用债券评级方面，以中高等级信用品种为主，通过审慎和积极的管理，在保持组合流动性的基础上，力求为投资者赚取收益。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:42.815Z","mo":"2021年是“后疫情时代”的第一年，中国在严格的防疫政策下率先从新冠疫情冲击中恢复活力，引领全球经济复苏。宏观经济方面，我国全年实现GDP增长8.10%，名义GDP突破110万亿元，保持了经济的快速增长。从经济增长的“三驾马车”来看，投资和消费分别受到“房住不炒”和防疫政策的影响，全年小幅上行，进出口贸易成为拉动我国2021年经济增长的最重要分项。在全球供应链受到剧烈影响下，中国坚持“动态清零”防疫政策使得产业链迅速恢复并向全世界输出商品，获得大量外汇收入的同时增大了我国的出口份额、稳固了我国的产业链地位和进一步促进了我国出口产业链的转型升级。从全年宏观经济节奏来看，呈现明显地前高后低走势，由于2020年同期爆发了新冠疫情导致经济增长基数较低，一季度录得18.3%的实际GDP同比增速，接着全年GDP同比增速逐季下行，四季度GDP下行至4.0%的相对低位，全年经济可以概括为上半年调结构、下半年稳增长。从宏观政策层面来看，国家上半年对于经济的判断是“稳增长压力不大的窗口期”，进而对房地产行业和地方隐性债务出台了多项调控手段，旨在提高经济增长的可持续性。下半年经济承压，尤其是全球大宗商品价格大幅上行导致中下游制造业利润受到侵蚀，企业经营出现困难，国家适时进行了降低存款准备金的操作，并在年底中央经济工作会议上再次将“稳增长”放在了首要位置。回顾2021，坚决的疫情防控措施为国内经济争取到了半年左右的窗口期，通过调整结构增强我国经济的韧性和长期高增速的可持续性，随着下半年全球经济逐渐陷入停滞状态，我国又开启了新一轮“稳增长”周期。展望未来，国际政治形势、全球通胀危机、长期增长率持续下行和内部产业结构问题将给中国经济的增长带来较多困难，但由于我国在后疫情时代储备了充足的政策弹药，产业链实力冠绝全球，经济增速回到5.0%-5.5%的潜在水平是大概率事件，相信未来一年我国经济将在外部冲击下震荡复苏。经济的走向决定了宏观叙事，资本市场根据自身特点分别走出了独立行情。股票市场方面，在经济增速无忧、产业转型的大背景下，以新能源车、光伏、芯片产业为主的新兴产业顺应了时代的发展，成为了市场追捧的热门板块。新兴产业发展空间大、技术含量高、业绩增速快使得行业内个股同时享受了高增速和高估值的加持，全年上涨幅度较大，直到2021年底经济增长面临较大压力时让位于“稳增长”板块。未来，深度契合国家能源转型的新能源车、光伏、风电板块以及代表中国产业升级的芯片行业在经济企稳回升之后将重新体现出其成长股价值。债券市场方面，由于政策周期缩短、海内外政策缩短以及内部结构调整等原因使得市场的变化较为频繁，在政策利率下行的大环境下全年整体呈现出小牛市行情。债券市场相较权益市场更加贴合宏观经济，而2021年由于决策层在经济较好的时候采取了经济结构调整的做法，使得债券市场走势更多地跟随政策的边际变化而对基本面因素反应出现了钝化，叠加年中通胀压力上行而经济增速转弱，导致债券市场走势判断逻辑相较往年出现了明显变化，对于判断市场主要矛盾提出了更高的要求。综合各方面因素，债券市场跟随长期经济增长速度下行的整体趋势不改，在节奏判断上更应注重结构性矛盾，短期在各项宏观刺激政策出台前对于债券市场更加友好，政策落地后性价比有所降低，整体债券收益率呈震荡下行走势。","fund":{"_id":3000000013297,"__csrcFundId":10000,"stockCode":"013297","shortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式(013297)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13297,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:55.260Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","name":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050940000,"followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"嘉合磐固一年定开纯债债券发起式","setUpDate":"2021-09-08T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":2510135000,"setUpShares":2510135000,"pinyin":"jhpgyndqkfczzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20773430","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1203215710,"name":"李超"},{"stockCode":"j101020094","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":192525252970,"name":"舒烟雨"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉合磐固一年定期开放纯债债券型发起式证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=713169","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}