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投资上的两个思考，一个关于研究范围，另一个关于判断的优化。  研究上，我们坚持去发现和总结那些在一定期限内不会变化的趋势，如“长坡厚雪”，当市场预期脱离了我们归纳的规律时，可能存在错误定价的机会。过去我们的研究主要集中于行业和公司自身的发展，从2022年开始，我们的视角开始逐渐跳出公司本身，去观察更高维度或者更宏观的一些发展变化。特别是不少国内的优秀企业，他们的进步已与政策因素及全球市场息息相关，这需要用更宽广的视角去判断其面对的机遇和挑战。这种宏观研究的拓展可能会持续好几年。  深度研究除了发现市场的错误，更重要是突破自身认知的局限。因为我们的认知和理解也需要持续拓展。比如我们发现过去在寻找及触及某些投资机会时充满偶然，同时又在不经意间会依据自己的偏好及认知来过滤信息。一旦标的使我们“满意”，决定可能就随之产生，搜寻可能也暂告结束。同时，市场上几乎每个投资机会都有着完备的逻辑，或长或短、或深或浅，但这种逻辑推演很难准确预测未来情况。首先，经济活动中每个环节都非常理性是不可能的，甚至有时候所有环节的理性反而形成了系统的非理性。其次，投资逻辑在现实中的实现难度极易被低估，这就造成逻辑的标准答案与现实的正确答案有时大相径庭。“满意+逻辑”的思考方式某种程度上是有局限性的。基于此，过去两年我们开始尝试利用一些数量化的手段，尽量去打破自身认知的局限和风险。各种财务或者模型数据是冰冷的，但它作为市场投资机会的筛选规则以及投后的纠偏机制是公平客观的。","declarationDate":"2023-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:37.560Z","mo":"对于未来几年的市场我们充满信心，国内新经济蓬勃发展，市场机会层出不穷。我们仅希望通过不断的深度研究，使得知识和认知能够持续成长，并希望以此为持有人带来长期稳定的超额回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000013269,"__csrcFundId":10806,"stockCode":"013269","shortName":"交银瑞和三年持有期混合(013269)","masterFundShortName":"交银瑞和三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13269,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:02.069Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"交银施罗德瑞和三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050480000,"followedNum":3,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3105376944.19,"setUpShares":3105376944.19,"pinyin":"jysldrhsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20354914","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":819156970,"name":"何帅"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"交银施罗德瑞和三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=867722","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff17fea5b3eb0505033","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013269,"sao":"2022年三季度A股市场分化明显。新兴成长领域如“机器人”、“逆变器”等受到追捧，而不少曾经的“核心资产”下跌，可谓冰火两重天。港股在美国较快加息的环境下，恒生指数快速回落。医药指数在三季度下跌超过20%，由于本基金配置了医药行业的个股，三季度相对收益不佳。  在各种不确定性因素下，市场对于中长期经济前景较为悲观，对于短期数据和利空因素极度敏感，影响股票价格大幅波动。但我们对公司的定价模式偏向于长期，而非景气度。面对市场波动，我们希望能坚持自己的研究结果，做到知行合一。同时也要承认，我们的判断依据是行业过去几十年的历史规律，及对一些事物发展趋势的研究总结。但规律也不是一成不变的，如何区分市场情绪与行业基本面的变化趋势，对研究和心理能力均是较为考验的。  在此过程中，我们仍希望持有人和我们有同样的投资目标，以追求长期的稳定，而非短期的爆发，有耐心面对短期的困难，并且相信经济的发展总会越来越好。再次感谢持有人的耐心和信任，希望能为持有人带来长期稳定的超额收益。","declarationDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:37.558Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013269,"__csrcFundId":10806,"stockCode":"013269","shortName":"交银瑞和三年持有期混合(013269)","masterFundShortName":"交银瑞和三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13269,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:02.069Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"交银施罗德瑞和三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050480000,"followedNum":3,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3105376944.19,"setUpShares":3105376944.19,"pinyin":"jysldrhsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20354914","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":819156970,"name":"何帅"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"交银施罗德瑞和三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=801808","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecff17fea5b3eb0505032","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013269,"sao":"2022年上半年A股市场经历了较大波动。三月至五月局地疫情蔓延、美联储加息及大宗商品通胀等各种风险因素叠加，市场悲观情绪弥漫，创业板一度下跌26%。六月以后局地疫情影响逐渐消除，同时配合政府强有力的政策支持，市场开始快速反弹，创业板指单月上涨17%。  为更好的适应A股市场投资，力争获得额外超额收益，投资者需要具备两个必要能力：第一，具备判断公司价值的能力，或者说公司价格的“锚”；第二，当价格急剧下跌或者上涨时，情绪能够不受市场影响，机械般地瞄定那个价值锚进行投资。对于第一点，需要我们对公司有长期深度研究的能力，尽量把中长期的发展空间和竞争力想清楚；其次是投资者的定价能力，这个定价其实也是依靠对于公司的长期自由现金流的判断。对于第二点，我认为首先是一个投资者平稳的性格，其次依然是对于上述自身研究结果的信心。综上，基于公司长期价值的判断是投资的核心关键点。  本基金于2022年3月初成立后，我们较快建仓，我们依据对于一些优秀公司的长期价值判断，进行了大量“逆向”投资，这些投资使得我们有机会以相对合理的价格持有一批在较大行业空间中的优秀公司。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:37.555Z","mo":"展望2022年下半年，经济等不确定因素仍然较多。但不少行业的长期空间依然广阔，其中优秀公司的竞争力依然可能继续提升，我们认为他们仍然具备“性价比”。感谢持有人的支持和信任，希望通过自己的不懈努力为持有人带来长期稳定的超额收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000013269,"__csrcFundId":10806,"stockCode":"013269","shortName":"交银瑞和三年持有期混合(013269)","masterFundShortName":"交银瑞和三年持有期混合","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13269,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:42:02.069Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"交银施罗德瑞和三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050480000,"followedNum":3,"inceptionDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpDate":"2022-03-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3105376944.19,"setUpShares":3105376944.19,"pinyin":"jysldrhsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20354914","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":819156970,"name":"何帅"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"交银施罗德瑞和三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=780961","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}