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察。国内经济整体呈现弱复苏态势，由于没有出现新的一波疫情，线下服务业快速修复，一季度经济增长情况好于2022年底的预期，但仍低于疫情前的水平。供需呈现回暖趋势，需求方面改善较好，而生产方面则稍显弱势。多地抢抓开工复产后，工业生产稳步回升但仍不够强劲，还需进一步修复。投资主要靠基建和制造业拉动，房地产投资增速大幅收窄，但民间投资增速仍然低迷。服务消费快速复苏，尤其是餐饮、旅游、电影等领域，但汽车销售拖累消费增速小幅反弹。出口降幅好于预期，原因在于积压订单交付、亚太区域内贸易强化、美国经济强劲以及汽车出口景气。CPI和PPI均处于低位，预计今年单月不太可能突破3%。货币政策呈现紧货币、宽信用的趋势，新增人民币贷款向企业中长期贷款倾斜。财政政策加力提效，扩大内需需要更有力的财政政策。  一季度债券市场方面，利率经历了先上后下的过程，整体处于窄幅波动状态。利率的低点多出现在年初，而利率的高点则多出现在2月末到3月初，1年国债的波动区间在2.07-2.33%，10年国债在2.81-2.93%。1-2月市场对疫后经济复苏的预期较强，但经济数据处于空窗期，债市提前为经济复苏定价，表现为长端利率在1月中下旬就已达到或接近一季度高点，上行幅度也大于短端。2月进入经济复苏的验证期，中旬发布的1月社融、EPMI等数据较为强劲，但市场已有预期的情况下长端利率整体窄幅波动，未再明显上行。3月政府工作报告确定全年增长目标5%左右，叠加2月通胀不及预期，债市对经济的强复苏预期转为温和复苏预期，对通胀的潜在担忧也降温，10年国债回落至2.85-2.88%。信用方面，1-2月各评级信用债均呈现利差修复，3月有所分化，低评级继续修复而中高评级信用利差小幅走扩。背后原因，一方面是去年11-12月超调之后收益率和信用利差处于高位，相比利率债有性价比；另一方面，2-3月理财新发产品回暖，也导致了特定收益资产荒，推动低评级信用债继续修复。  权益市场方面，一季度开始，政策端稳增长政策密集出台，信心的修复强于基本面；进入2月临近两会，政策步入相对“空窗期”，服务消费高斜率修复，商品消费延续分化，地产及其后周期消费触底反弹；3月两会定调稳健，数字经济利好政策持续出台，市场对经济弱复苏共识加强，人工智能、国央企重估、“一带一路”等主题投资板块领涨。整体来看，一季度政策对总量经济的支持幅度有限，由疫后修复带动的经济增长逐渐放缓，部分场景相对稀缺的消费板块仍有需求回补空间，经济周期性的向上力量尚未真正出现，代表经济结构转型的数字经济在收获政策的支持和推进后，成为市场聚焦热点，但后续具体的落地方式和进程需要密切关注。  年初，我们基于宏观政策的变化和基本面数据的验证，对经济复苏持相对乐观态度，组合久期和仓位偏谨慎，3月后，市场对经济增速的预期有所修正，我们适当优化了组合久期和配置结构，并择机参与交易获利。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:22.102Z","fund":{"_id":3000000013186,"__csrcFundId":10361,"stockCode":"013186","shortName":"长城恒利债券(013186)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13186,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:39:07.810Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","name":"长城恒利纯债债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050150000,"masterFundShortName":"长城恒利债券","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2021-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":201999836.69,"setUpShares":201999836.69,"pinyin":"cchlczzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20755918","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2310202900,"name":"魏建"},{"stockCode":"j101019803","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81003248310,"name":"华吉昶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长城恒利纯债债券型证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=885438","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecfe27fea5b3eb0503eae","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013186,"sao":"2022年，在美联储加息、俄乌冲突、疫情反复、地产暴雷等多重因素制约背景下，我国经济持续超预期走弱。一季度前期1-2月国内经济表现相对较好，随着3月上海等地疫情开始大规模蔓延，经济在二季度迅速探底。5月底，疫情逐步受控叠加稳经济大盘的一揽子政策出台，6月经济明显回升。下半年，国内疫情再度反弹、且波及范围更大，加之“断贷停供”冲击房地产，经济下行压力进一步凸显。四季度GDP增速再度下行，但明显好于市场预期。分项看，2022年我国经济复苏的重要引擎是净出口、基建和制造业。受到制造业韧性和价格因素的支撑，净出口延续高增；中央出台的一揽子稳经济政策，包括专项债、政策性开发性金融工具、银行配套授信等，有效拉动基建投资；出口红利和高端制造战略对制造业投资也起到积极的促进作用。消费、地产是2022年经济的主拖累项，需求和信心不足的问题持续凸显，价格端接近通缩。疫情冲击增加经济下行压力，居民收入和就业修复偏慢，使得居民消费意愿疲软；地产方面11月监管部门先后出台系列纾困政策，从银行授信、债券融资、股权融资三个渠道打开房企融资空间，但是12月份行业数据尚未出现积极变化，行业信心恢复仍需时间，后续看相关政策进一步的细化和落实。  2022年债市很难简单定义牛熊，1-10月债券收益率中枢有所下行，整体维持窄幅区间波动，11月开始在基本面“预期”逆转和理财赎回风波双重冲击下，债券收益率迅速上行，信用债、二永债遭遇更大冲击。一季度，降息在1月中下旬落地，随后央行发布会释放明确宽松信号，十年国债向下突破2.7%，2月起宽信用预期持续升温，带动长端利率转头上行，3月上海疫情持续发酵引导长端利率再度下行。二季度，宽货币环境下资金持续宽松，疫情冲击下长端利率维持在2.75%-2.85%区间窄幅震荡，反映市场在弱现实下对后续稳增长政策仍抱有强预期。进入三季度，7月地产断贷风波发酵，叠加疫情局部反复，服务消费遭遇冲击，经济复苏动能放缓，叠加政治局会议未提全年经济目标，利率再次下行；8月15日央行超预期降息打开宽货币的想象空间，长端利率下探至年内低点2.58%；9月份，官方制造业PMI超市场预期、三项地产放松政策集中出台、人民币汇率破7.2，多重因素影响下利率再度明显上行。四季度，国庆期间消费疲弱、地产销售高频数据走低、疫情反复影响，债市收益率开始下行；11月初开始，疫情和地产政策出现积极变化，两大逻辑出现动摇，叠加货币政策开始出现收敛迹象，长短端利率均出现大幅度调整，局部赎回开始出现；12月疫情优化进入新阶段，理财赎回冲击再次来袭，信用债、二永债上行迅速，年底在弱现实、资金松环境下债市迎来小幅修复。  股市方面，2022年内忧与外患频发，宏观经济波动加剧，市场系统性估值调整，A股整体呈现“W”型走势，年内上证指数两次跌破3000点。一季度，美联储超预期收紧、地缘政治扰动及国内疫情反复冲击下，市场呈现三段式下跌。直至4月末，随着国内疫情形势改善，复工复产有序推进，叠加本阶段稳增长政策再度发力，经济数据明显改善，市场迎来中期反弹行情。三季度，全球经济衰退预期升温、国内房地产断贷事件发酵，国内经济修复进程受阻；8月佩洛西窜访中国台湾，引发市场对中美关系担忧，风险偏好再度回落下市场震荡下跌。四季度，二十大强调“国家安全”和“科技创新”下安全主线走强，市场走势开启分化，11月疫情防控措施优化落地，经济修复预期支撑市场震荡回升。全年来看，估值调整是引发市场下跌的主要因素，市场风险偏好回落限制增量资金入场，存量资金博弈加快了A股市场风格的轮动，大小盘风格、价值与成长风格全年多次切换，海外通胀与国内防疫放开成为市场交易的两条主线。  2022年年初，我们基于宏观政策的积极态度和信贷数据的验证，对债市略偏谨慎。2月以后，由于俄乌战争、新冠疫情等黑天鹅事件的冲击，我们修正了对经济和市场的判断，加大了债市的配置力度。进入四季度，逐渐拥挤的债市在流动性冲击下出现超调，我们优化了组合久期和结构，减持了利率债，增持了部分信用债。全年下来，组合主要通过信用债票息和杠杆获利，在市场出现超预期变化的时候，也通过流动性较强的利率债参与交易波段。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:22.099Z","mo":"展望后市，基准情形下，我们认为新冠疫情或者战争等黑天鹅已经不是影响经济和政策的核心因素，宏观经济走势和财政货币政策可能都会回归自身的周期。从企业盈利和库存周期角度，我们预计经济大概率在目前位置见底回升，政策方面，从去年11月以来，国内防疫和地产两大政策已经见到明显拐点，叠加中央对今年经济增速的期待，我们认为，至少在今年上半年国内经济将处于见底回升的阶段。至于对经济偏乐观的预期能否维持到全年甚至更长时间，取决于国内政策力度、消费和地产复苏的情况以及紧缩背景下海外经济衰退的程度等多方面因素。总体来看，我们认为今年是经济从底部开始复苏的一年，但是复苏的幅度存在不确定性，大类资产配置上，权益的机会大于债市。","fund":{"_id":3000000013186,"__csrcFundId":10361,"stockCode":"013186","shortName":"长城恒利债券(013186)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13186,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:39:07.810Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","name":"长城恒利纯债债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050150000,"masterFundShortName":"长城恒利债券","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2021-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":201999836.69,"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MLF 操作利率的带动下，市场被宽货币预期主导，收益率下行至低点，十年期国债一度下降到2.67%。2月，美国通胀大超预期，节后在美联储紧缩预期下美债利率上行，叠加1月社融数据超预期带来宽信用担忧，收益率逐步上行，2月下旬在俄乌冲突、广州房贷利率下调等因素影响下，收益率冲高回落。3月央行上缴结存利润、重点领域项目建设、多地放宽购房政策等宽信用政策频频落地，2月社融数据低于预期，而经济数据大超预期，市场在宽信用和宽货币之间反复摇摆，叠加疫情和地缘冲突的扰动，利率整体呈现震荡走势。二季度，债券市场窄幅震荡，整体小幅下跌。4月市场宽松预期增强，中旬降准幅度不及预期，中央政治局会议后稳增长政策措施加快落地，长端收益率先下后上，整体上行；5月份经济基本面承压，资金面持续宽松，市场宽货币预期再起，长端收益率有所下行；6月高频数据显示生产需求进一步修复，经济基本面边际改善，受跨季等因素影响，资金利率小幅上行，债券收益率震荡调整。  一季度权益市场指数层面整体重现震荡下跌态势，上证指数下跌10.65%，创业板指下跌19.96%。从行业表现来看，市场风格从新能源等赛道股重新回到价值股，稳增长标的有所表现。从细分领域看，煤炭以及房地产、银行、建筑等与稳增长相关的标的表现良好。4月份在上海疫情爆发的影响下，股市再次大幅调整。4月底开始，疫情逐渐好转叠加促汽车、家电消费等政策密集出台，风险偏好回升，权益市场大幅反弹，反弹行业一开始集中在风光储和电动车，后来消费和医药也有所表现。  考虑到信用债的配置价值，我们精选个券，优化结构，择机配置了风险可控、具备一定收益的信用品种，保持组合一定的杠杆和静态收益率。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:49:22.088Z","mo":"展望下半年，国内经济方面，货币政策预计将继续保持宽松，财政政策会继续发力，重点关注几个方面：地产销售能否起来，地方基建能否明显上量，疫情对消费的负向扰动能否缓解。海外宏观方面，在通胀没有明显缓解的情况下，预计各国央行还会继续收缩流动性，欧美经济是否会很快进入衰退也取决于美联储收紧的力度和节奏。基准情形下，假设没有突发疫情或其他特殊因素的影响，我们预计下半年国内经济将触底回升，但复苏的力度可能不会太强，企业盈利也会见到改善。大类资产配置上，我们认为权益、商品等资产可能好于债券和货币类资产。","fund":{"_id":3000000013186,"__csrcFundId":10361,"stockCode":"013186","shortName":"长城恒利债券(013186)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":13186,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:39:07.810Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","name":"长城恒利纯债债券型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050150000,"masterFundShortName":"长城恒利债券","followedNum":0,"setUpDate":"2021-11-16T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":201999836.69,"setUpShares":201999836.69,"pinyin":"cchlczzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20755918","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2310202900,"name":"魏建"},{"stockCode":"j101019803","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":81003248310,"name":"华吉昶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长城恒利纯债债券型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=787597","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecfe27fea5b3eb0503eab","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000013186,"sao":"2022年一季度，年初经济增速企稳向好，但疫情冲击下基本面承压。继中央经济工作会议后，政府工作报告再次退出稳增长的政策取向，并提出5.5%的经济增速目标。在稳增长政策的推动下。一季度经济开局较好，1-2月经济数据大超预期，生产、消费、投资均大幅好于去年12月，经济基本面企稳向好。但3月疫情多点扩散，全国的生产、消费和物流都受到严重影响。  房地产方面，1-2月地产投资、施工面积同比转正，新开工、销售同比为负。3月下行压力持续，TOP100房企销售同比降幅进一步加大，由于行业风险仍未出清，在债务违约背景下房地产融资仍未有回暖。当前虽然政策有所缓和，当前距离房地产销售转正还需要一定时间。消费方面，3月份国内疫情对供应链带来一定扰动，对消费和部分接触型服务业的恢复带来影响。生产方面，制造业和非制造业PMI指数环比回落，反映出疫情的拖累。投资方面，制造业和基建投资增速提升，但地产投资继续下行。进出口方面，一季度出口同比在高基数下依然保持了两位数的增长，显示出口依然强劲。进口增速保持高位，但主要是价格上涨的贡献。通胀方面，受俄乌危机持续推升大宗价格影响，PMI价格数据持续上升，3月PPI同比维持8.3%高位；CPI同比小幅上升，反映出疫情影响下超季节性需求。社融方面，3月份社融同比多增大超预期，基建需求多增，但是社融结构仍然欠佳，短贷和政府债券是主要贡献，而居民贷款同比少增。  针对当前我国经济情况，预计稳增长政策将持续发力。财政政策方面，预期财政支出进度继续提速，专项债使用范围扩大，退税减税政策进一步落实。货币政策方面，外部压力下仍将维持稳健偏宽松态势。稳增长政策有望恢复市场信心，但在疫情冲击下，消费或将进一步恶化，生产预计高位回落，出口增速也将承压，而投资将在政策驱动下成为拉动经济增长的重要抓手，但进一步上行也面临压力，重点关注房地产政策走向。疫情冲击下，经济基本面下行压力仍存，需要进一步观察基本面是否出现触底反弹的趋势。  2022年一季度，债券市场先涨后跌，而后维持震荡，整体震荡。1月份在前期央行降准和月中央行下调 MLF 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