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格特点，继续对风险资产的表现脱敏。3月，市场以10y作为分水岭继续分割，10y以内企稳而10y以上则开始交易美伊战争带来的输入型通胀预期。进入二季度，需要重点关注的是曲线走平的概率在增加。首先，央行已在3月明确中期流动性投放放缓，货币政策进入观察期，且进入4月回归到地量OMO投放的状态，回顾历史我们知道2021年1月央行持续20亿地量投放，2022年11-12月50、100亿投放，这一操作的目的是货币政策较前期的超调状态回归到正常状态，因此3-5y利率品的阶段性底部已经探明，震荡上行是大概率的；其次，基本面指标持续在好转，尤其是对超长端影响较大的PMI、通胀数据是在持续利空的，但1-2月由于央行过度的宽松，导致市场并不担忧经济复苏带来的利空，另一方面基本面和供给的利空已经在10y*30y利差上有极为充分的定价，因此随着央行回归常态化流动性调控后，经济数据利空落地出尽后，市场关注的焦点可能是超长端品种的交易性机会。重点需要关注机构行为层面，一是由于银行信贷增量急速下滑同时定存到期留存率较高，带来的银行体系的资金充裕和成本下降，二是银行理财在二季度季节性规模增加后是否增配债基，三是基金对于超长债的久期偏好是否阶段性回升。另外，需要长期紧盯的路标是两个指标，一个是大行的行为，另一个是资金面+通胀的相关关系。今年赔率体系的重点在大行的行为，当大行以自身的FTP来控盘国债的二级市场定价后，其他所有机构的资产定价都是不合适的或者赔率低的，因此所有参与机构都会紧盯大行头寸和仓位。另一方面，目前大行的行为仍然是控盘10y国债在1.80%附近，1.80%以下大行买盘变少的事实更像是定价行为，而对于非大行机构来说，仍然有赔率的地方可能是30y老国债和地方债品种，在扭曲的赔率极限压缩之后，市场机构才会将目光放到胜率因素上，比如资金面+通胀的相关关系，而通胀企稳本是2026年题中应有之义，地产企稳和居民资产负债表修复是正在进行式，同时美伊战争带来的输入性通胀压力将会给整个生产端带来极大的成本压力，在此背景下央行回笼过多的流动性的概率是持续提升的。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T15:38:49.725Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012858,"__csrcFundId":9757,"stockCode":"012858","shortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式(012858)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12858,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:31:08.602Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式","setUpDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001050,"setUpShares":5001050,"pinyin":"thrxllzzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金2026年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1472630","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69cbc77e381dd95da7df4ba2","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012858,"sao":"2025年的债券市场是回归固定收益本质的一年。开年，极低的长端利率和央行长时间保持宽松的环境下，股票市场表现稳定，央行暂停国债买卖后，债券投资者的风险偏好开始发生转变，长久期利率波动率在放大，而低久期的票息资产持续受到全市场追捧，进入到下半年，随着股票市场赚钱效应持续升温，交易性资金开始持续撤离长久期利率债，而银行、理财产品作为公募债券基金的最主要的委托人，开始持续赎回债券基金，赎回后的资金则配置低久期债券，或者将高费率的债基产品转换为债券ETF产品，因此，大量久期厌恶的剩余流动性冗余在债券市场中，导致了短端利率曲线极度平坦，而保险资金由于负债端稳定且成本持续下调，在年末主动配置长久期利率债，阶段性稳住了长端利率跌势，整个债券市场进入到低波动率状态。上半年本基金仍在积极通过久期策略获取收益，但在7月之后识别到债券市场的变化，保持了谨慎防守策略，以控制回撤为主要投资目标。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-31T13:09:18.100Z","mo":"展望2026年，低利率环境仍会保持，曲线陡峭化的概率较大，久期策略的赚钱效应仍然不好，信用类资产的收益相对更稳定，杠杆策略可能成为主流。在2025年之前，中国债券市场经历了漫长的降息周期和信贷收缩周期，久期择时策略是非指数类债基主要的盈利来源，本质上是客户对于债基收益的追求更高，对于阶段性的风险或是回撤更不担心，而在2025年之后，广谱利率有收敛的态势，债券利率极低且长时间没有赚钱效应，对于机构客户来说债基费率侵蚀了很多票息，自己投资性价比更高，对于散户客户来说债基相较货基收益不确定性更大，相较存款来说并没有太多超额，散户客户可能更偏好货基、存款类金融产品，这就导致债券市场仍然留存有大量的低风险偏好的剩余流动性，这是低利率环境的基础，同时央行保持流动性充裕且给了市场极大的宽松预期，债券市场加杠杆的信心会持续处于偏高的状态，而长期、超长期债券供给仍处于高位，市场久期偏好很难回到2025年以前的状态，因此，最终债券市场将会把10年及以下的期限利差、信用利差压缩到极致低位，届时可能更需要担心杠杆率过高的风险。","fund":{"_id":3000000012858,"__csrcFundId":9757,"stockCode":"012858","shortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式(012858)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12858,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:31:08.602Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式","setUpDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001050,"setUpShares":5001050,"pinyin":"thrxllzzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1455304","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecfa57fea5b3eb05001bb","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012858,"sao":"三季度利率债市场表现不佳，收益率持续回调，风偏走强和公募费率改革导致的基金负债端冲击是压制债市的主要因素。曲线较二季度末陡峭化上行5-30bp，超长估值回到去年924的水平。回顾三季度组合的操作，7-8月以波段思路为主，整体仓位和久期围绕中性水平上下波动。虽然期间权益表现非常强劲，但我们认为对利率债的影响更多是情绪扰动，判断利率呈现震荡走势的概率大。原因在于，一方面政策周期层面央行态度非常友好，多次提前续作买断式回购且有降价，资金利率创年内新低且波动率非常低。另一方面，行为周期层面并没有观察到明显的资金外流迹象，同时以大行、保险为代表的配置盘在三季度有明显发力。但实际风偏对债市的影响比预期得要大，因此组合在这一阶段承受了一定的回撤。进入9月，组合系统性地降低了仓位，触发因素是行为周期的明显转弱。一方面，观察到债券市场赚钱效应持续疲弱的情况下，资金有表外回流表内的趋势，且这一趋势被公募费率改革放大。同时一级情绪走弱，发飞带动二级上行成为常态，二者共振带动利率急速上行。期间组合久期较低，且持仓多以国债品种为主，因此回撤幅度较为可控。展望四季度，债券市场可能会由行为周期定价向宏观周期定价切换。今年前三季度国内基本面展现了很强的韧性，尤其出口链的强势给了资本市场极大的信心提振。但目前来看内需的基础仍然不牢固，尤其是国补对于消费的拉动作用也在下降，叠加去年的高基数影响，内需仍然面临读数下滑的风险，同时房地产市场仍然处于高换手的跌价状态。考虑到提振内需仍是政策主线，因此四季度债券市场可能存在交易降息的机会。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:21.080Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012858,"__csrcFundId":9757,"stockCode":"012858","shortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式(012858)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12858,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:31:08.602Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0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市场判断相机抉择，总体获取了与风险相匹配的收益。","declarationDate":"2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:21.003Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012858,"__csrcFundId":9757,"stockCode":"012858","shortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式(012858)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12858,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:31:08.602Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式","setUpDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001050,"setUpShares":5001050,"pinyin":"thrxllzzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=887771","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecfa47fea5b3eb05001b0","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012858,"sao":"回顾2022年，海外主线是通胀、加息，国内主线是疫情、地产，前者是放水经济反弹后的必然，只是程度远超预期；后者是政策大逻辑下的必然叠加偶然，同样方向可预期、程度远超预期。从长周期看，2022年债市总体呈现横盘震荡格局，收益率位于历史底部区间，上下空间有限，波动幅度10-20bp窄幅震荡。聚焦在2022年，收益率走势跟随疫情防控形势和地产形势“跌宕起伏”，上半年收益率低点出现在1月央行积极表态后，全年收益率低点出现在8月15日央行因地产表现超预期降息前后；全年收益率高点出现在11月疫情全面放松后，幅度上，由于降息和疫情防控均超市场预期，因此债市在7-8月、10-11月这两个区间段波动也有所加大。组合操作上，总体上半年维持较高久期和杠杆，下半年综合考虑债市价格已经计入过多利好，将对利空极度敏感后，陆续减仓，规避了损失。","declarationDate":"2023-01-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:20.997Z","mo":"从长周期角度，党的二十大报告提出，“把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来”，未来五年相对于之前五年最重大的边际变化是“实施扩大内需战略”，意味着如果说过去五年供给侧改革背景下，意味着经济上有顶，对债市而言收益率上有顶；那么未来五年，供给侧叠加需求侧的背景下，则更多意味着经济下有底，对债市而言下有底的局面将更加明确，也即意味着对于未来较长时间而言，“0利率”的前景将无限期推后甚至难以实现，这是未来几年需要重视的新的宏观思路变化。从2023年角度，疫情和地产两大经济掣肘都在2022年底得到彻底缓解，而背后隐含的更重要的逻辑是，政府或对经济增长开始重新有所需求，政府在2021年底开始反复提及的重振市场信心，也有望在今年得到贯彻落实。总体而言，2023年经济回升确定性较高，幅度取决于各类政策配合力度，对应债市收益率中枢将有望抬升，阶段性的债市亏损在所难免，但一旦收益率回升到一定高度，考虑到我国当前供给侧改革的宏观大背景，届时债市将重新具备吸引力。","fund":{"_id":3000000012858,"__csrcFundId":9757,"stockCode":"012858","shortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式(012858)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12858,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:31:08.602Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式","setUpDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001050,"setUpShares":5001050,"pinyin":"thrxllzzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=870207","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecfa47fea5b3eb05001af","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012858,"sao":"三季度国内经济面临较大下行压力，内需方面，房地产受“保交楼”事件影响，修复态势相对缓慢，同时疫情反复出现，居民消费、投资需求以及预期未见明显好转；外需方面，出口向下拐点来临；综合来看，三季度基建逆周期发力成为经济运行中为数不多的亮点，但难以扭转经济下行态势。货币政策层面，央行8月降息助力房地产产业链修复以及帮助企业降低融资成本，与此同时，海外超预期加息，人民币汇率面临较大贬值压力，国内流动性总体维持超宽松状态。综合来看，国内外形势较为严峻和复杂。债券市场层面，三季度前半段受基本面走弱、流动性宽松及央行降息影响，收益率大幅下行，后期随稳增长政策发力，收益率有所回弹。三季度在复杂的国内外宏观环境下，组合总体维持中性操作，相机抉择，获取了相对稳健的回报。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:20.991Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012858,"__csrcFundId":9757,"stockCode":"012858","shortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式(012858)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12858,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:31:08.602Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘睿选利率债发起式","setUpDate":"2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5001050,"setUpShares":5001050,"pinyin":"thrxllzzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20781880","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1623203880,"name":"彭玮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘睿选利率债债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=805395","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecfa47fea5b3eb05001ae","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012858,"sao":"2022年上半年经济下行压力持续较大，一季度主要受房地产市场影响，叠加稳增长政策的不确定性，经济预期降至低点，海外方面，俄乌战争、美联储加息节奏加快对国内金融市场形成持续扰动，股票市场下跌，债券市场波动加大；二季度受疫情影响，主要经济指标在4、5月跌幅较大，6月伴随疫情形势边际好转，经济开始呈现弱复苏态势；债券市场方面，上半年波动幅度总体越来越小，在宏观政策空间比较有限的背景下，收益率缺乏明显的向上或者向下趋势，上半年来看，一方面利率水平较年初变动不大，另一方面在稳增长、降成本的背景下，资产荒逻辑延续，信用债表现好于利率债。组合操作上，上半年以票息和杠杆收益为主，获取了相对稳定的收益。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:20.980Z","mo":"展望下半年，短期经济将延续疫后复苏态势，但考虑外围经济见顶，叠加国内增量政策有限，且缺乏能够大幅加杠杆的主体，预计经济向上弹性偏弱，但鉴于经济形势短期好转，未来增量政策出台概率在减小，债券短期难以打破震荡格局，未来将密切关注海外经济走势，中长期看，国内疫后复苏爬坡过后，叠加海外周期向下，二者共振下行或能够促发债市行情。后续将密切跟踪经济形势和政策动态，及时调整组合久期、仓位，力争获取稳健回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000012858,"__csrcFundId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