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未艾，今年很可能是AI应用兴起的元年，人们总是担心宏观问题，而忽略了科技进步。也总是高估未来两年即将发生的事情，而往往低估了十年后会发生什么。我们相信AI驱动的新一轮产业革命很可能已经开启，对于未来的变化，我们需要大胆想象，小心求证。　　综上，尽管短期的波动巨大，但我们对于中国经济和市场的中长期依然持乐观态度，会结合市场与宏观环境的变化，以乐观的心态去调整组合，争取为持有人创造更好的回报。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:14.801Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012839,"__csrcFundId":9715,"stockCode":"012839","shortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合(012839)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12839,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:30:28.877Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3967586684.02,"setUpShares":3967586684.02,"pinyin":"dfhzhsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20122250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2625154800,"name":"周云"},{"stockCode":"j101020146","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122617258390,"name":"刘中群"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1273652","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf9e7fea5b3eb04ffdb8","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012839,"sao":"2024年，A股市场的表现可谓一波三折，年初在各种因素的影响下，各类指数均有下跌，尤其是部分流动性不好的中小市值股票跌幅较大；筹码出清之后，市场迎来了比较快速的反弹，上涨一直持续到5月下旬；随后市场又经历了一波回调，上证指数再次回到3000点以下。9月底，在政策预期的刺激下，市场上演了一出振奋人心的强势反转行情。上证指数由9月18日的2700点，一路上涨至10月初的3500点，创业板指的涨幅更大。如我在三季报所述，只要政策没有严重的低于预期，拉长时间来看，我认为市场大概率已经实现了反转。全年上证50指数上涨15.42%，沪深300指数上涨14.68%，中证500指数上涨5.46%，创业板指上涨13.23%，中证1000指数上涨1.2%。行业方面，银行、通信、电子、非银、商贸、家电等行业涨幅较大；医药、美容护理、农林牧渔、食品饮料、建材等行业表现不佳。本产品行业和风格配置相对均衡。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:14.798Z","mo":"站在当前时点，国内政策更加明晰，经济筑底的逻辑也更加夯实。尽管市场大部分投资者可能依然以旧模式的视角去看待经济的未来，但实际上，全新的周期可能已经悄悄开启。在过去投资驱动的增长模式里，我们GDP的体量迅速扩张，也完成了大多数产业的升级，然而因为内部竞争太过激烈，资本回报率和劳动力报酬被显著压低，也积累了一定体量的债务。当我们的社会发展到现在这个阶段，已经从追赶者变成创新者的时候，以“反内卷”为代表的供给端改革对长期的影响反而更大，我相信未来无论是资本回报还是劳动者报酬都会回归到一个合理的水平。另一方面，世界不仅是周期的，也是成长的。人们总是担心宏观问题，而忽略了科技进步，也总是高估未来两年即将发生的事情，而往往低估了十年后会发生什么。站在当前的位置，尽管我并不知道AI的能力上限到底在哪里，但AI驱动的新一轮产业革命很可能已经开启，需要认真思考AI对各个行业产生的影响。 　　尽管市场在大幅上涨后，短期有所回调，但我对于经济和市场的中长期持乐观态度，我会在市场回调时，以乐观的心态去调整组合，争取为持有人创造更好的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000012839,"__csrcFundId":9715,"stockCode":"012839","shortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合(012839)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12839,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:30:28.877Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3967586684.02,"setUpShares":3967586684.02,"pinyin":"dfhzhsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20122250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2625154800,"name":"周云"},{"stockCode":"j101020146","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122617258390,"name":"刘中群"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1254820","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf9e7fea5b3eb04ffdb7","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012839,"sao":"尽管7月初到9月中旬，市场一路下跌，但是9月底，市场上演了一出振奋人心的强势反转行情。上证指数由9月18日的2700点左右，一路上涨至9月30日的3330点左右，创业板指的涨幅更大。整个季度，各类宽基指数均大幅上涨，上证50指数上涨15.05%，沪深300指数上涨16.07%，中证500指数上涨16.19%，创业板指上涨29.21%，中证1000指数上涨16.6%。排名靠前的板块主要是：非银金融、房地产、商贸社服、计算机、传媒等；排名靠后的主要是前期比较强势的煤炭、石油石化、公用事业、农林牧渔、银行等。本产品配置相对均衡。　　9月底的上涨行情，无论是幅度还是力度均超市场预期，但事后看这种逼空式的上涨方式，有其必然性。2021年以来的弱市场预期深入人心，并且有一定的基本面逻辑，只有在内外因素都具备的条件下，诞生这种力度的上涨行情才可能扭转。上涨的内因是无论估值分位数还是股债性价比都处于非常有利的位置，而绝大多数市场参与主体的仓位都比较低；外因是大家期盼已久的各类政策，特别是大力度的财政政策可能迎来了转机。站在当前的位置，只要政策没有严重的低于预期，拉长时间来看，我认为市场大概率已经实现了熊牛转换，但因为短期涨幅巨大，所以操作上需要谨慎。但是在选股上需要更加乐观的心态，在市场回调的时候积极调整组合。　　综上，我会以更加积极的心态，根据宏观、市场、公司的变化情况，积极调整组合，努力为持有人创造回报。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:14.796Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012839,"__csrcFundId":9715,"stockCode":"012839","shortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合(012839)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12839,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:30:28.877Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3967586684.02,"setUpShares":3967586684.02,"pinyin":"dfhzhsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20122250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2625154800,"name":"周云"},{"stockCode":"j101020146","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122617258390,"name":"刘中群"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红智华三年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在进一步加强。随着地产压力和疫情的影响，对固定资产投资的扰动带来的中游制造行业需求的影响仍然是主要因素，但随着上游大宗商品价格的回落，成本的因素迎来拐点，需求方面预计下半年仍然会在磨底阶段，但半年报应该是很多中游企业最差的时刻。二季度配置上进一步集中了高端制造业的个股标的，并适度参与新能源汽车产业链中零部件行业中受益行业景气度上行的标的。管理人认为黑天鹅事件的预判和应对是相对困难的选择，跟随市场情绪的波动进行投资决策容易带来进一步的投资策略的扰动从而带来更大的不确定性，在这个位置来看，疫情对国内经济的影响已经持续一段时间，消费行业未来的长期空间仍然随着消费者对美好生活的不断追求和国力的提高而长期持续看好。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:14.768Z","mo":"市场风格阶段性在中小市值的个股和热点的轮动上表现明显的根本原因是经济基本面和流动性的背景。随着经济企稳回升后，相信优秀的企业大概率会获得良好的长期持续的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000012839,"__csrcFundId":9715,"stockCode":"012839","shortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合(012839)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12839,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:30:28.877Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3967586684.02,"setUpShares":3967586684.02,"pinyin":"dfhzhsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20122250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2625154800,"name":"周云"},{"stockCode":"j101020146","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122617258390,"name":"刘中群"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=786206","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf9e7fea5b3eb04ffdad","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012839,"sao":"2022年一季度外围环境和国内经济遇到了复杂的挑战。市场在经济稳增长的政策预期落空后整体走势疲软，3月俄乌冲突对供给和供应链的扰动及避险需求的升温使得大宗商品呈现持续上涨的态势，叠加国内疫情的反复及局部封控对需求端及供应链的扰动加剧了市场对经济通缩的担忧。一季度整体市场呈现单边下跌的态势，港股市场亦如此。行业来看，上游及房地产表现相对稳定，其他行业皆出现较大幅度调整。  本基金一季度持有的个股在制造和消费的比例相对偏高。在经历了2年疫情对消费需求的影响带来的消费板块较大幅度的调整后，大部分消费行业的估值水平已经处于合理的水平，春节后各地疫情的持续爆发使得消费行业经历了进一步的下跌，管理人认为疫情的扰动对需求的影响是短期的，疫情终将过去。长期来看消费者追求更美好生活的本心是不会发生变化的，衣食住行类基本需求拉长来看仍然是稳定的。消费品优秀企业竞争力的稳定性及需求的韧性相较大部分中游及上游行业更优。疫情影响下市场更为担心短期需求的扰动，但如果拉长到3年的角度，疫情结束后，这些优秀的企业仍然会回到一个合理的盈利能力和估值水平。  疫情和碳中和对上游大宗商品价格影响的持续性始终是中下游行业最为关键的因素。中游制造业的压力除了成本外更多是下游地产及基建开工不足对需求的影响。目前中游制造业处于最为黑暗的时刻，虽然疫情的绕顶拉长了承压的时间，但企业价格也体现了市场的担心及周期的影响。全年来看下半年中游行业有望走出周期低谷。  一季度基金运作上根据需求受外部因素影响的幅度和持续性对个股略有调整。适度增加上游行业个股的布局。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:14.765Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012839,"__csrcFundId":9715,"stockCode":"012839","shortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合(012839)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12839,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:30:28.877Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":1,"masterFundShortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":3967586684.02,"setUpShares":3967586684.02,"pinyin":"dfhzhsncyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20122250","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2625154800,"name":"周云"},{"stockCode":"j101020146","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122617258390,"name":"刘中群"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=729914","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf9e7fea5b3eb04ffdac","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012839,"sao":"2021年资本市场的表现体现了疫情对全球经济持续反复影响下带来的艰难复杂的外部环境以及内部转型调整带来的跌宕起伏。从市场的主要指数全年表现来看，沪深300下跌5.2%，上证指数上涨4.8%，恒生指数下跌14.1%，虽显稳健但实则结构表现差异极端。2021年整体为相对复杂的一年。市场的结构性体现了冰火两重天，一方面在疫情的扰动下，全球流动性充裕但全球供应链遇到了前所未有的挑战，国内疫情控制有效使得中国的世界制造中心的优势发挥得淋漓紧致，出口成为拉动经济增长的主要驱动因素。但国内经济受到疫情管控及出行减少的影响，消费服务行业持续受到重创。另一方面，能源结构调整及共同富裕的大背景下，产业结构发生了翻天覆地的变化。在碳中和底层政治基础的前提下，以新能源汽车、光伏为代表的清洁能源大发展带来波澜壮阔的产业链发展热潮，同时传统高耗能行业节能减排背景下产能和需求的错配对能源价格形成影响和扰动。疫情后期流动性充裕背景下及能源结构转型带来的上游大宗原材料价格大幅上涨对中游制造业形成了较大的压力，地产景气度下行带来的经济影响加剧了中游的压力。第三，在共同富裕背景下，对垄断行业的政策变化成为贯穿全年的主线，全年恒生科技指数下跌32.7%，美国中概股下跌47.8%。  2021年基金运作层面，对宏观经济下行的预期体现的不够充分。在房地产行业对经济下行压力的预期判断显得不够充分。在持仓选股上用中长期视角，看中企业的竞争力及复杂外部环境下企业壁垒的持续扩大，但在外部环境加速下行的背景下，未能抵抗住下行周期的行业贝塔。  但管理人相信投资仍然要坚持长期视角，坚持深度研究，用企业的竞争力化解短期市场的不确定性及波动。将更加努力完善自上而下的知识结构，在复杂的外部环境下砥砺前行。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:48:14.762Z","mo":"2022年的宏观基调为稳增长，在此背景下能源结构变化的大方向并未发生变化，但节奏预计会有所变化。同时，传统基建的适度提前及新基建的加大力度降为稳增长提供支持。疫情的扰动在2022年仍然是影响经济的主要因素之一，海外经济扩张政策随着疫情放开而接近尾声，使得海外的政策目标进入信用收缩阶段，但国内疫情的反复仍然对国内经济带来压力。同时，大宗商品的价格走势仍然是经济的最大不确定因素。相信2022年政策效果逐渐落地的过程中，整体经济将体现为前低后高。上游的通胀压力能否顺利传导将成为不同板块及经济走势的重要因素。  管理人坚信国运，虽然这几年复杂的外部环境和疫情对很多行业带来了很大的挑战和扰动。但我们仍然坚信和认可经济转型的短期痛苦将为长期的持续繁荣奠定更坚实的基础。","fund":{"_id":3000000012839,"__csrcFundId":9715,"stockCode":"012839","shortName":"东方红智华三年持有混合(012839)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12839,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:30:28.877Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"东方红智华三年持有期混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050870000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-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