window.pageData = {"stock":{"_id":3000000012184,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","fundCollection":{"exchange":"jjgs","stockType":"fund_collection","stockCode":"50090000","tickerId":50090000,"name":"大成基金管理有限公司"},"managers":[{"name":"王晶晶","stockType":"fund_manager","stockCode":"db20832060","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410}],"hotMetrics":{"fss":{"stockId":3000000012184,"type":"fss","f_s_s_d":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","f_ins_h_s_r":0.0052,"f_ins_h_s_r_c_hy":0.0006999999999999992,"f_ins_h_s_r_c_1y":0.001,"f_ind_h_s_r":0.9948,"f_ind_h_s_r_c_hy":-0.0006999999999999229,"f_ind_h_s_r_c_1y":-0.0010000000000000009,"f_h_a":8881,"f_h_s_a":62642,"last_data_date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z"},"fpr":{"stockId":3000000012184,"type":"fpr","f_p_r_fys_ssc":9000,"f_p_r_fys_ssrp":0.36004000444493833,"f_p_r_m1_ssc":9177,"f_p_r_m1_ssrp":0.5265911072362686,"f_p_r_m3_ssc":9037,"f_p_r_m3_ssrp":0.3042275343072156,"f_p_r_m6_ssc":8759,"f_p_r_m6_ssrp":0.3810230646266271,"f_p_r_y1_ssc":8324,"f_p_r_y1_ssrp":0.39444911690496215,"f_p_r_y2_ssc":7706,"f_p_r_y2_ssrp":0.5859831278390656,"f_p_r_y3_ssc":6884,"f_p_r_y3_ssrp":0.8329216911230568,"f_cagr_p_r_fs_ssc":9107,"f_cagr_p_r_fs_ssrp":0.870964199428948},"fp":{"stockId":3000000012184,"type":"fp","f_p_r_fys":0.07936135243014797,"f_p_r_m1":0.05182473401212673,"f_p_r_m3":0.015799359186830397,"f_p_r_m6":0.084198113207548,"f_p_r_y1":0.3628817076786255,"f_cagr_p_r_fs":-0.01695561774007126,"f_p_r_d1":-0.00886501007387519,"f_p_r_y2":0.2656938325991205,"f_p_r_y3":0.007230499561789339,"last_data_date":"2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z"},"ff":{"stockId":3000000012184,"type":"ff","f_m_f":3232197,"f_m_f_r":0.012,"f_c_f":538699,"f_c_f_r":0.002,"f_m_a_c_f":3770896,"f_m_a_c_f_r":0.014,"f_m_c_f_d":"2025-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","f_c_fr":0.002,"f_fr_d":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","f_m_fr":0.012,"f_mac_fr":0.014},"f_nlacan":{"stockId":3000000012184,"type":"f_nlacan","f_nv_d":"2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z","f_nv":0.9194,"f_nv_cr":0.001961639058413178},"f_as":{"stockId":3000000012184,"type":"f_as","f_tas":417870914.96250004,"f_tas_d":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z"}},"masterSlaveFunds":[{"_id":3000000012185,"name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","exchange":"jj","stockCode":"012185","tickerId":12185,"shortName":"大成创新趋势混合C","__csrcFundId":9162,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.063Z","inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","followedNum":0,"status":"normal","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":24930572.05,"setUpShares":24930572.05,"masterFundFlag":null,"activeFundFlag":null,"classificationFlag":null,"closedEnd":null,"etfFundFlag":null,"feederFundFlag":null,"indexFundFlag":null,"lofFundFlag":null,"pensionTargetFlag":null,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj"}],"shareholdings":[{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":300750,"holdings":99600,"marketCap":40009320,"netValueRatio":0.0942,"quarterlyChange":0.09377552687469404,"stock":{"stockCode":"300750","exchange":"sz","stockType":"company","tickerId":300750,"name":"宁德时代"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":600732,"holdings":1907202,"marketCap":26719900,"netValueRatio":0.0629,"quarterlyChange":0.045522388059701546,"stock":{"stockCode":"600732","exchange":"sh","stockType":"company","tickerId":600732,"name":"爱旭股份"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":333,"holdings":318275,"marketCap":24300296,"netValueRatio":0.0572,"quarterlyChange":-0.023032629558541684,"stock":{"stockCode":"000333","exchange":"sz","stockType":"company","tickerId":333,"name":"美的集团"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":2595,"holdings":292000,"marketCap":23120560,"netValueRatio":0.0544,"quarterlyChange":-0.06306945923559248,"stock":{"stockCode":"002595","exchange":"sz","stockType":"company","tickerId":2595,"name":"豪迈科技"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":600176,"holdings":829800,"marketCap":20172438,"netValueRatio":0.0475,"quarterlyChange":0.4216374269005847,"stock":{"stockCode":"600176","exchange":"sh","stockType":"company","tickerId":600176,"name":"中国巨石"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":300274,"holdings":125740,"marketCap":18956562,"netValueRatio":0.0446,"quarterlyChange":-0.1185687558465861,"stock":{"stockCode":"300274","exchange":"sz","stockType":"company","tickerId":300274,"name":"阳光电源"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":1000000000000425,"holdings":622400,"marketCap":17827339,"netValueRatio":0.042,"quarterlyChange":0.022698612862547263,"stock":{"stockCode":"00425","exchange":"hk","stockType":"company","tickerId":425,"name":"敏实集团"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":600352,"holdings":1311900,"marketCap":17067819,"netValueRatio":0.0402,"quarterlyChange":0.22045028142589018,"stock":{"stockCode":"600352","exchange":"sh","stockType":"company","tickerId":600352,"name":"浙江龙盛"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":1000000000000700,"holdings":33100,"marketCap":14145212,"netValueRatio":0.0333,"quarterlyChange":-0.19198664440734592,"stock":{"stockCode":"00700","exchange":"hk","stockType":"company","tickerId":700,"name":"腾讯控股"}},{"date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000012184,"stockId":1000000000002423,"holdings":400600,"marketCap":13405600,"netValueRatio":0.0316,"quarterlyChange":-0.08674698795180746,"stock":{"exchange":"hk","stockType":"company","stockCode":"02423","tickerId":2423,"name":"贝壳-W"}}],"lastFsMetrics":{"latestTurnoverRate":1.6712198327135452,"latestTurnoverRateDate":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z"}},"list":[{"_id":"69e8eb741398d79843fe92dd","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"一季度沪深300下跌3.89%，科技、能源矿产类表现亮眼。中东地缘政治冲突带来世界格局和经济滞胀的疑云。但毫无疑问，中国在能源替代与布局上早就做了准备，中国的制造业也在脆弱的世界环境中体现出了韧性，即使短期面临成本压力。根据产业景气和行业竞争格局的变化，本组合这个季度在大制造领域上新增了一些标的。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T15:38:28.586Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2026年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1478097","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69ce65aff45dd25f43f6261f","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"2025年沪深300在2024年基础上持续上涨17.66%，其中通信、有色、电子等行业表现亮眼。本组合去年基于能源升级、全球化、产业趋势等做了配置与选股，但也考虑了较多估值的问题，整体结果显得偏稳健。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-02T12:48:47.879Z","mo":"AI的发展已经从想象走入了实际的应用，似一股巨大的浪潮在席卷各行各业，尤其在人力成本较高的国家。战争与不确定性，科技进步在加速，国家的资本开支能力等等交织在一起，对资本市场和全社会都形成了深远的影响。我们站在一个伟大时代的面前，是被需要还是被抛弃，对时间长短的刻画、以往的框架是否需要变化与迭代都需要我们去思考。在巨变面前，要么拥抱变化最有利的那个方向，要么拥抱不受影响的经典产品。总之，得持续的学习。从国内来看，还有一个变化是反内卷，不少制造业的资本开支在盈利压力下持续的减少，供给的减少对一个行业中期盈利生态的改善更为有意义。在充裕的流动性下，很多热点的投资在被前置，真正在业绩兑现之前，市场的逻辑与想象发挥了较大的作用。未来的一年，我需要让自己的框架变得更加有柔性一些，能够更多的思考因果关系的外置条件和边界，能够更多角度来看待事务的发展。在坚持估值安全边际的前提上继续买入产业趋势明确的标的。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1458107","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f708a","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"三季度沪深300指数上涨17.9%，创业板指数上涨50%。成长股表现亮眼。科技层面自主可控以及外部AI供应链都表现出较强的景气，同时电力设备中的储能等领域表现较为突出。反内卷在实际落地过程中。本组合基于个股竞争能力变化、景气趋势变化做了一些自下而上的调整，主要是在能源、电气领域中有一些变化。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.901Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1376188","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7089","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"2025年上半年，我们经历了国内外AI大模型的迭代、新一轮贸易战的发起与应对、反内卷的进一步开启等等，市场信心总体有了较大的提升。中国竞争优势除了在制造业外，也在科技、消费、医药等领域体现出来。过去半年本组合有一些调整，主要是在出海这条道路上，发现企业受到的挑战比想象的大，这里面固然有外部的因素，但也有选股在企业能力方面评估不慎的因素，后续在行业配置上和选股上都有一些调整。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.898Z","mo":"中国展现出来的大国风范给了资本市场信心，在大国博弈中，科技、制造、国防、文化等等方面我们都展现出了我们应有的实力。将来我们在战略上保持乐观，在微观选股上仍然审慎前行。在宽流动性背景下，有产业趋势的方向被高度追捧，结构性的特点较为明显，也可能同时给了一些其他资产更为便宜价格的机会。毫无疑问，人工智能的发展对每个行业影响都不可忽视。在外部环境变化较快的情况下，企业的学习能力、组织迭代能力成为一个新的评估企业能力的观察点，同时，也有一批新时代的企业家，可能是创造了一个需求，可能是用更现代化的方法去改造传统制造业、服务业。反内卷是未来另一个较为长期的课题，这后面可能是大家对政府参与经济程度、经济商业文明的一个再思考。出海的过程是复杂而长期的，也考验企业组织的迭代能力。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1346130","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7088","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"一季度沪深300下跌1.21%，市场波动较大，科技类资产在产业趋势和充裕流动性下表现较好，但后续特朗普的关税政策给全球供应链格局带来了巨大的不确定性。产业趋势类的定价仍是一个难点，但在外部环境不确定的情况下，本组合仍延续自下而上的选股原则，且对安全边际的考虑需进一步提升。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.895Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1275908","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7087","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"2024年全年，沪深300指数上涨14.68%，中证1000上涨1.2%，红利风格全年表现较优，市场风格在9月份前后有一个较大的变化，成长股在最后一个季度表现良好。　　本组合主要的操作主要基于产业趋势、行业供需景气的变化而展开，主要集中于性价比合适的优秀公司上，更加注重个股层面超额收益的获取。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.893Z","mo":"2024年目前看起来像是一个承上启下之年，9月份是一个重要的节点。短期来看，政策层面传递了积极的信号，资本市场的重要性重新得到认识，更重要的是实体经济的环境在进一步好转。地产有托底的政策，同时在科技上鼓励创新。　　在人工智能快速发展的今天，我越来越明显的感受到了三件事，第一是中国在其中的力量是不可忽视的，即使是在大模型领域，我们也做出了自己的贡献；第二是中国的人工智能的应用上如自动驾驶等领域上的进展是紧跟世界水平的，甚至在需要硬件配合领域上面迭代的速度会更快；第三是中国的企业家精神，从老一代向年轻一代来传递并且发展出了适合新一代企业家的精神。　　难点在于对估值的理解。这当中有不少公司都是基于对时代的洪流参与而产生，但真正能创造价值和现金流回报的企业是不确定的。传统的企业如果能够利用好人工智能带来的效率提升和创新也是具备观察潜力的。　　展望2025年，市场在充裕的流动性下会比较活跃，同时伴随着中国的成长，外部环境仍然是复杂的。选股方面，我们主要立足于科技创新趋势、产业升级方向展开，加深对优质企业的理解，并更多的关注可持续性和安全性。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1256900","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7086","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"回顾本轮行情的历史走势，可以看到上证走势分为3段：　　（1）2635-3174是第一段上涨，领涨板块是AI算力、有色和出海链，红利股滞涨；　　（2）3174-2689是第二段回撤但指数没有创新低，领涨板块是防守的大盘红利股，银行、运营商、电力等，果链也表现很好，领跌的是跟经济相关的地产链、白酒还有资源品等；　　（3）2689至今是第三段由于政策转向，以互联网金融、科创板和创业板为代表的高弹性板块领涨，跟经济相关的地产链和白酒、资源品等表现也不错，红利股滞涨，目前我们还在这一段走势中。　　　　第三段走势是A股仅6个交易日大涨近1000点，成交额站上3.48万亿。回顾历史可能2008年底的经济刺激跟当下有一定的可比性，2008/4/24降低印花税，6个月后指数见底，本轮是2023/8/28调低印花税，指数也恰好在6个月后见底。此外货币政策、财政政策、资本市场政策、产业政策陆续出台，我们正处于类似的阶段。　　　　对当下的市场环境，有两种应对方式：　　（1）关注当下的货币政策、财政政策、资本市场政策和产业政策，按照政策的出台去估算当下的风险收益比；　　（2）相信会通过极大力度的刺激让整个经济体摆脱“债务-通缩循环”。　　　　如果是情景1那么跟经济相关的品种弹性不会特别大，流动性相对充分的情况下，一些有长期逻辑有想象力的板块可能占优；如果是情景2那么跟经济相关的品种弹性和确定性也会比较大，但是有长逻辑有想象力的板块可能具备更大的弹性。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.890Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1180375","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7085","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"我们的判断没有大的变化，我们相信：　　1、大趋势决定小趋势，小趋势演化成大趋势；大级别决定小级别，小级别演化成大级别；　　2、根本的因素决定细枝末节。　　　　我们所处的环境，可以抽象出来三个根本的大趋势，正是他们的相互作用，决定了宏观经济和市场走向。这3个大趋势分别是：　　　　1、中美超限竞争在贸易、科技、产业、舆论、外交、金融、军事等方方面面展开。　　　　2、“人口-地产-财政-基建-投资”大循环逆转。房地产股票2015年就见顶调整了近10年，成交量到2021年才见顶回落，市场很早就意识到大循环会结束。繁荣之后是调整，这个是必然的规律。　　　　3、新一轮科技革命有可能在各个方向上展开（AI、机器人、核聚变等等）。　　　　　　　　从股票市场表现看，有 2 个主线比较亮眼，一个是红利板块，一个是AI相关的光模块和果链。降低预期收益率看，无论是运营商、核电、银行等板块拉长看确实可以提供合理的收益率。AI相关的光模块继续表现亮眼，是因为国内能供应进去的也就只有这个方向最相关。果链是预期端测AI能提升用户体验，加速换机周期的逻辑，还有就是毕竟果链只有 20% 的销售来自于中国，对内需的暴露很低。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.887Z","mo":"展望后市，我们认为市场依然被上述3个大趋势主导，短期由于指数已经调整下来，我们对单季度适度乐观，但长期依然是保持耐心和攻守反击的策略。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1149884","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7084","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"一季度组合表现的思考：　　第一个层面是关于市场的主线。去年底超配了军工和医疗板块，基于军工和医疗可能困境反转，很不幸到目前位置冲击的影响还在，军工和医疗也是今年表现最差的几个板块之一。其次是对于AI算力的判断，由于A股市场高度线性外推，大幅上涨后大概率都是低于预期的，基于历史经验把算力都卖掉了，但一季度光模块是表现最好的科技方向。截至一季度末，表现最好的是哑铃策略的两头，一个是AI算力，一个是资源品，而去年底对这两块的配置都不高。　　第二个层面是快速反应方面，面临市场变化关键是如何做到快速调整。　　第三个层面是对于新产业和传统产业的认知。过去长期觉得整个硬科技和医药等板块具备长期空间，但决定盈利能力的根本还是供需关系，由于整个社会的资源都被导向这些新兴成长行业，导致这些行业内卷严重，反而不赚钱，最惨的是类似于模拟芯片类的行业性亏损还没有办法退出。反而是很多看起来很传统的产业，由于供应不足，需求受益于其他国家，反而出现了机会，后续组合也进行了配置。　　最后就是必须有一定程度的侧重。没有增量资金的情况下，均衡投资的时候组合内各个板块内部对冲，均衡看起来安全实际是危险的，必须有一定程度的侧重。","declarationDate":"2024-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.884Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2024年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1068406","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7083","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"大趋势决定了宏观经济和市场走向，从中长期看，主导市场的依然是3个主导趋势：　　1、“人口-地产-财政-基建-投资”大循环可能逆转。市场对大循环结束定价较早，但对它的负面冲击定价不够充分。当卖地收入和地产相关税费下滑之后，仅靠一般预算收入第一本帐入不敷出，必然导致紧缩效应，军工（占中央财政本级支出40%）、医疗（医保买单）、环保等吃财政饭的行业面临较大压力。房价缩水15-20%后，居民财富缩水，中产阶级还面临降薪裁员等压力，这个也是消费降级的主因。　　　　2、中美超限竞争在贸易、科技、产业、舆论、外交、金融、军事等方方面面展开。事实上2018年贸易战以来，已经能够感觉到脱钩断链在自我实现，比如金融投资、人员往来、进出口等等，科技产业正在自发形成一个世界两套体系（信创/华为体系pk美国体系），中国向东南亚、墨西哥产业转移也自然的配合美国脱钩。特朗普在共和党初选中抛出将对中国商品课关税60%，要逐步从各领域摆脱对中国的依赖，特朗普2.0对我们可能依然是一杯毒酒。　　　　3、新一轮科技革命（人工智能AI、超导、机器人等等），似乎经过移动互联网之后多年的沉寂，科技大突破有可能在各个方向上展开，群星闪烁。但这一轮科技革命是美国不卖先进GPU给我们，也不从国内采购（只有光模块还在供应），似乎只能靠科技自立自强。　　　　　　1和2是主要负面因素，3是主要正面因素，正是这些合力决定了大趋势和市场的走向。　　　　从市场表现看，两个策略表现比较亮眼，一个是低估值红利股，一个是新兴产业尤其是AI。市场在面对上一段1和2这两个主要矛盾时主动降低了预期收益率，运营商和石化等超大盘蓝筹股表现亮眼，乃至经济下行压力下有较大压力的大型银行也表现很好。新产业方面，AI是最亮眼的主线，围绕上游算力和下游应用（办公、教育、金融、游戏、军工等），市场快速演绎了一遍移动互联网的演进逻辑。短期是预期远远的走在了产业进展前面，所以2季度后一直处于调整中，但看海外AI的大趋势依然没有被证伪，目前需要一些爆款应用来打破僵局。　　　　从本组合的投资来看，AI方向上有布局，但力度远远不够，其他方向比如创新药、新能源和军工的少数仓位构成拖累。成长股β更关键，需要在行情早期采取跟随策略，在逻辑演绎到极致的时候果断卖出，对人的考验极大。其次就是在组合管理上缺乏主动追击，震荡期拉锯战事实上双方差距不大，主要是确认了趋势之后的追击才能迅速扩大战果。集中优势兵力和果断追击是我在过去一段时间的主要反思。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.882Z","mo":"展望未来，我们认为上文分析的1-3这几个中长期的主要矛盾不变，1的问题在2024年大概率要触底了，展望2025年不会继续下行，这是一个较大的利好。2的问题如果特朗普在11月胜选，那2025年中美关系将迎接新的风高浪急和惊涛骇浪。3的问题是我们必须要在新型举国体制下证明自己能够引领新科技革命的能力，实现科技自立自强，在中央经济工作会议通稿中也把科技创新任务摆在首位。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1057226","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7082","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"三季度市场处于弱调整格局，提振市场信心的政策在陆续出台，但外资北向资金持续流出，国内又没有增量资金流入。机构重仓股表现很弱，高股息价值策略和微盘股题材都有显著的超额收益。　　　　基本面看，市场尤其是外资担心的依然是自上而下角度难以证伪的问题。一个是“人口-地产-财政-基建-投资”的大循环走向终结，对应城镇化进程的斜率放缓，由于地产链上中下游牵涉方方面面，对财政收入、居民消费等方方面面影响很大。另一个就是中美长期竞争的大环境，从我们的考察和调研来看，经济因素长期很关键，但政治因素短期是非常非常重要的，企业相应的会做出调整来应对潜在的风险，投资机构及其客户也在调整其国家配置结构，预期的自我实现可能是我们最应该担心的问题。　　自上而下的宏观忧虑需要很长的时间去证实或者证伪，但从自下而上的角度去看，如果看一个个细分产业，却很清晰的看到是中国在各个细分产业都具备极强的竞争力。我们的产业升级就像进攻一个高地，家具纺服家电等传统产业早已攻陷，光伏电车电池等新三样也已经具备主导地位，现在只有少数的山头比如半导体的先进制程、生物药、工业软件、先进材料等等卡脖子环节还在争夺中。只不过欧美国家现在已经不再鼓吹自由市场经济和全球化分工，转而设置各种贸易关税壁垒，靠政府的有形之手人为干预市场。国内的应对政策就是企业和产业出海，这种情况从悲观的角度看是产业外迁，从相反的角度看何尝不是优秀企业的一个难得机会，在压力之下被迫全球本地设厂，中国企业自己成为全球化的主角而不是简单的成为西方全球供应链的一个配角。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.879Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2023年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=991112","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7081","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"中长期看基本面的的主导矛盾没有变化，我们大概可以抽象成4个趋势：1）“人口-地产-财政-基建-投资”大循环可能逆转（对应市场担心的城镇化的尾声）；2）中美超限竞争在科技、产业、舆论、外交、金融、军事等方方面面展开（对应市场担心的全球化的减速）；3）新一轮科技革命（人工智能AI、超导、机器人等等），似乎经过移动互联网之后多年的沉寂，科技大突破有可能在各个方向上展开，群星闪烁；4）内部改革释放活力，纵观建国以来的历史每每在危急存亡时刻总是能果断改革释放内部动力。1和2是主要负面因素，3和4是主要正面因素，正是这些合力决定了大趋势和市场的走向。　　从市场表现看，两个策略表现比较亮眼，一个是高股息，一个是新兴产业尤其是AI。市场在面对上一段1和2这两个主要矛盾时主动降低了预期收益率，运营商和石化等超大盘蓝筹股表现亮眼，乃至经济下行压力下有较大压力的大型银行也表现很好。新产业方面，AI是最亮眼的主线，围绕上游算力和下游应用（办公、教育、金融、游戏、军工等），市场快速演绎了一遍移动互联网的演进逻辑。短期是预期远远的走在了产业进展前面，但AI的大趋势依然没有被证伪，目前需要一个爆款应用来打破震荡的僵局。　　从本组合的投资来看，AI方向上有布局，但力度远远不够，其他方向比如创新药、新能源和军工的少数仓位构成拖累。运动战，忽集忽分，集中优势兵力在主线上，在其他方向上少量布局以观察，这个是我所坚信的。目前来看，这个集中度可能依然需要提高，必须集中火力在极少数的方向甚至一个方向和极少数个股上。其次，就是在组合管理上缺乏主动追击，震荡期拉锯战事实上双方差距不大，主要是确认了趋势之后的追击才能迅速扩大战果。集中优势兵力和果断追击是我在过去一段时间的主要反思。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.876Z","mo":"展望未来，我们认为上文分析的1-4这几个中长期的主要矛盾不变，在3季度可能中美关系有所缓和，而地产又开始放松限购限贷和降低存量贷款利率，所以1和2这两个拖累项可能会缓和。而新科技革命和内部改革释放活力（比如搞活资本市场）有可能促使行情更加活跃。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=960038","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f7080","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"AI有望带来新一轮科技革命，它已经在许多领域展现出了巨大的潜力和应用前景。由于市场已经经历过2000年互联网和2012年左右移动互联网两次大的科技革命，很容易接受“算力-模型-场景应用”的投资脉络，也基本上围绕这3个环节来布局。　　科技股很容易进入“股价-预期”正反馈，在想象空间巨大的大前提下，股价越涨市场越是相信科技革命将成为事实。　　AI可能是目前为止历史上首次出现一个指数级发展的行业，其他行业大多是长期周期波动或者渗透率曲线模型，日复一日迭代进化的AI令人兴奋。从办公、教育、医疗、陪护、工业、交通等诸多场景应用推演看，AI将变革甚至颠覆目前的产业。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.873Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=886216","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f707f","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"2022年市场的主要围绕地产（工业化/城镇化）、疫情和俄乌地缘政治冲突等主要矛盾来演绎，全年是一个很标准的W型走势。　　一季度组合跌幅较大，跑输基准，超配新材料、智能电网、计算机等方向，受上述因素冲击，跌幅较大。　　二季度抓住了投资机会，超配汽车、军工、电新等方向。　　三季度市场陷入对疫情反复和地产问题的担忧，尤其是外资。在大会前后围绕国产替代和泛安全领域进行研究和布局。同时由于外资的交易给港股带来买入机会，也趁势布局了部分港股品种。　　四季度疫情防控形势向好和地产政策持续发力，复苏交易是主要逻辑。","declarationDate":"2023-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.869Z","mo":"智者之虑，必杂于利害。　　从风险的角度看，主要关注3个风险：　　1）“人口-地产-财政-投资-城镇化”大循环见顶；2）中美关系陷入对抗恶性循环，全球化脱钩断链，陷入两极格局；3）疫情在年中可能再次扰动市场。　　从机会的角度看，在泛科技领域“AI+机器人”都有显著突破，可能带来一轮产业链的机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=868169","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f707e","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"市场在二季度反弹后，三季度持续调整，依然是主要矛盾主导市场和经济的走向：地产（城镇化）和中美对抗（全球化脱钩断链）。    地产背后是工业化和城镇化，假设把房地产想象成一只股票，过去30年全社会都在享受它的量价齐升大趋势，现在它的总市值已经达到数百万亿。地产的需求主要看人口和城镇化率，2000年左右新生人口2千万，到2021年只有1千万，人口周期本身就决定了地产需求的大周期；其次按照七普数据中国城镇化率已经达到63.89%（户籍人口城镇化率45%左右），参考海外数据进一步提升空间不大，斜率也要放缓。过去6年地产销售面积（成交量）都在16-18亿平米之间高位盘整，这就是一个重要的调整信号（量在价先）。海外地产调整期的历史经验启发我们需要对地产链条、土地财政/政府采购、消费等很多假设做重新评估，事实上今年以来我们已经看到很多问题暴露。    在电动车、光伏、风电、医疗设备、工程机械、激光等几乎所有行业都可以看到这种规律，后面卡脖子的半导体、机床、新材料等行业也必将紧跟其后。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.863Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=809227","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f707d","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"1-4月份主要在防守，4月底开始进攻，重配了新能源和军工方向。  过去7-8年正反两方面的经验教训，让我更深刻认知到A股趋势市的特点：股价是历史条件下的历史过程，把股价运动当作逻辑展开的过程，而不是先去判断“合理价值、低估或者高估”，边际最盲目乐观的人决定股价的高点，边际最悲观的人决定股价的低点，价格波动极大。宏观和产业趋势的演绎过程也一样，时来天地皆同力，运去英雄不自由。在上行趋势中，各种利好像飞轮一样互相撬动强化趋势，反之在下行趋势中，各种利空像漩涡一样相互交织，推动基本面趋势迅速恶化。落实到投资和研究上，努力寻找“基本面逻辑--业绩--股价”三者的趋势共振，一般始于基本面的逻辑假说，业绩验证强化假说，股价最终实现趋势共振。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.860Z","mo":"展望未来，可能有2个主要因素影响市场和经济的走向：地产（城镇化）和中美贸易摩擦。  悲观者交易的逻辑尽管难以短期证伪，但也要看到我们的长期竞争优势是极其明显的，时间确实在我们这一边。中国可以大规模低成本高品质的生产几乎所有产品，这个就是我们最大的优势。如果把全世界的企业抽象成三类：a、欧美代表的技术领先企业；b、中国企业；c、发展中国家的其他企业。对c而言，由于国内没有完整的供应链配套往往很难发展，基本停留在简单加工类业务。对b而言，正从中低端向中高端市场进军通过国产替代和出口抢市场的方式，快速抢走a的份额。对a而言，只有退守超高端市场，如此一来它的收入就会萎缩，就无法支持大规模研发来保持技术领先，最终将被b赶超。在光伏、电池、医疗设备、工程机械、继电器、激光、风电等几乎所有行业都可以看到这种规律，后面汽车和半导体也必将紧跟其后。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=781790","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f707c","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"一季度市场在地产、疫情和地缘政治冲突三重压力下调整较深，这三个方面在中长期都存在悲观逻辑短期无法被证伪的问题。  地产背后是工业化和城镇化，按照七普数据中国城镇化率已经达到63.89%，参考海外数据进一步提升空间不大，斜率也要放缓了。假设把房地产想象成一只股票，那它有几百万亿市值，过去30年全社会都在这个上升大趋势中运行，当上升趋势终结的时候，很多前所未见的调整都会发生，过去6年地产销售面积（成交量）都在16-18亿平米之间，高位盘整就是一个重要的调整信号。我们可能需要对地产链条、土地财政/政府采购、消费等很多假设做重新评估。分歧就是调整方式，悲观者认为是破裂和连锁反应式的崩盘，乐观者认为操盘能力极强趋势缓慢下降的优质房企可进行行业整合并借势提升份额 。  疫情已经持续了3年时间，最早影响现金流量表和利润表，现在也至少冲击到很多家庭和企业的资产负债表了，对消费需求的冲击可想而知。感觉突破口会是保护率更好的疫苗和低成本的特效药。  俄乌冲突是具有历史意义的事件。有2点结论是比较明确的：1、“批判的武器不能代替武器的批判”，冲突惨烈的画面通过互联网广为传播之后，相信各国民意都会支持加大军备支出，确保国家安全；2、某种程度的去全球化和阵营撕裂难以避免，一季度表现最差的几个板块都是高度依赖全球化的。   悲观者交易的逻辑尽管难以短期证伪，但也要看到我们的长期竞争优势是极其明显的，时间确实在我们这一边。中国可以大规模低成本高品质的生产几乎所有产品，这个就是我们最大的优势。如果把全世界的企业抽象成三类：a、欧美代表的技术领先企业；b、中国企业；c、发展中国家的其他企业。对c而言，由于国内没有完整的供应链配套往往很难发展，基本停留在简单加工类业务。对b而言，正从中低端向中高端市场进军通过国产替代和出口抢市场的方式，快速抢走a的份额，这在医疗设备、工程机械、光伏、电池、继电器等几乎所有行业都可以看到，后面汽车、半导体估计也会看到。对a而言，只有退守超高端市场，如此一来它的收入就会萎缩，就无法支持大规模研发来保持技术领先，最后甚至一部分企业被b收购了。  落实到组合上，一季度主要是努力规避地缘政治冲突、疫情和地产三重压力的冲击，低仓位运作，结构上也做了一些调整。缺陷是部分品种止损不够坚决，后面会努力改正。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.857Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=729043","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f707b","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"今年值得检讨的东西很多，我反思下来主要有3条：  1、永远做一个优化器，迅速接受变化，找到最优解。  2、有形之手的力量比想象中的强有力太多，过去乃至将来都是最主导的力量。  3、抓主要矛盾抓大放小。  具体到三个板块：  （1）、传统大宗商品类：碳冲锋 和一刀切 导致上游价格跳涨，以动力煤为典型，价格从500-600元/吨跳升到接近2000元/吨，按照40亿吨煤耗其中1/2是长协，毛估要从下游拿走3万亿利润。我当时 分析此类做法在后期会得到修正，但实际情况是，在该现象发展至无法收拾的地步下，中央经济工作会议才开始明确纠偏。最优解就是在面对此类错误时，不应将自己的立场和先入为主的偏见带入而阻碍自己的操作。    （2）、消费品板块：今年整体上是重灾区，小孩的教培/生长激素/游戏、女性的医美、男性的白酒和老人的医药等都是长期很好的方向，但表现都不理想，最优解就是及时躲避政策风险，当政策调整的时候整个行业生态都会改变。    （3）、科技板块：以半导体产业链和新能源车产业链为例，既有行业本身的发展规律，也离不开有形之手的影响。半导体本来就应该全球分工，最大化规模经济，但受到中美贸易摩擦的影响。电动车从内燃机转为“芯片+算法” 为根基，由于摩尔定律和算法的迭代，比燃油车只会越来越有竞争力。应该大幅超配这个板块，但是我们买入力度不够，没有抓大放小，没有集中优势兵力。真正的机会其实并不多，近1-2年由于这样一系列的原因，看似安全的分散持仓，实质是更危险的。    以上是我的反思，过去我也一直不断的反思，但我发现反思的东西真正把它做好和执行好还有很长的路。","declarationDate":"2022-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.854Z","mo":"操作上主要是集中持仓，把原来的25-30个品种先收缩到20个以内，然后方向上也进一步收缩到3个方向以内。研究上主要是对明年的行业做一些评估，然后力争在潜在机会较大的领域集中持仓。","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=708009","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecf1a7fea5b3eb04f707a","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012184,"sao":"三季度行情上游极热，下游冰冷。主要矛盾是缺煤，粗算煤炭总消耗40亿吨，价格中枢抬高了接近800-1000元（不考虑长协），光这样一个产品下游就向上游转移了年化3.2-4万亿利润（如果年化的话，当然后面煤价可能会被调下来），很显然上游暴利下游难熬。同样的，天然气和原油价格也一路上涨。以煤炭、钢铁、化工、有色、电力为代表的传统周期行业因为缺煤-缺电和能耗双控对供给侧形成极大冲击，很多并没有太高壁垒的高耗能高污染产品反而跳涨，本来需要遏制的产业反而迎来暴利。在中美欧全球能源革命的大背景下，传统能源企业既然看到了5-10年后需求趋势萎缩，肯定压缩资本开支，收缩杠杆，收获末日红利，而新能源短期又没有办法填补，这个切换窗口期矛盾会一直存在。煤油天然气价格高涨，也进一步提高了新能源的吸引力，必将强化新能源的趋势，今年以来新能源车全球渗透率大超预期就是证据之一。  消费品三季度比较惨淡，有三重利空，一个是政策压力，一个是疫情影响需求，一个是资金流出到上游。经过一个季度的调整，政策风险有些已经被证伪，继续向周期品流出的压力也大大减轻。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:46:02.851Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012184,"__csrcFundId":9162,"stockCode":"012184","shortName":"大成创新趋势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12184,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:29:28.058Z","status":"normal","name":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"inceptionDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成创新趋势混合","setUpDate":"2021-05-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1280250030.77,"setUpShares":1280250030.77,"pinyin":"dccxqshhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20832060","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231010211410,"name":"王晶晶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成创新趋势混合型证券投资基金2021年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=657880","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}