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低估值、未来可能具备业绩弹性的板块，包括新能源、非银、地产链等。","declarationDate":"2025-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.339Z","mo":"市场已经从前几年的悲观叙事状态下摆脱出来，对中国的远景预期开始修复。但是对经济好转，企业盈利回升的预期还是略显信心不足。这种情况下资金向想象空间比较广阔的AI领域集中就是顺理成章的情况，行情的持续性预计可能较强。市场最主要的分歧在于未来经济增长和企业盈利增速有没有拐点。宏观分析师一般关注的是财政支出的力度能不能有效提升，这还需要更多的跟踪观察；周期研究员一般更关注供给端的变化，在建产能投放压力的缓解和现有产能的出清情况。从上市公司的数据来看，2020-2021年开始的高资本开支形成的在建工程已经处在转固的最后阶段，理论上讲2025年已经进入新产能投放的尾声，这意味着工业企业的产能利用率可能会出现拐点，相应地，价格水平和企业盈利也有希望脱离持续了几年的负增长状态。当前这一判断的胜率并不算高，还需要观察企业的开工和库存水平的变化，以及需求端能否从之前的疲软状态里摆脱出来，但在当前市场对经济的预期下，这仍然是今年最有可能的预期差所在。整体看，我们对今年的市场行情还是比较乐观的，结构上存在从科技向全市场蔓延的可能性，观察的要点就在于工业企业的产能利用率能不能出现明确拐点。","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1249086","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f4884","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"今年前三季度，宏观压力进一步凸显，需求不足的风险进一步暴露，2023年中开始的库存周期上行过程可能已经结束，企业盈利改善的进程告一段落。而产能周期仍处在下行期，工业企业产能利用率处在持续下滑过程中，这一过程预计在2025年能看到拐点。财政政策和货币政策都采取了相对保守的态度，地产和地方政府受困于债务去杠杆，无法实现财务扩张，也影响了经济修复的幅度和持续性。企业盈利压力较大，上市公司盈利预测持续下修。9月下旬市场出现一些积极的变化。9月24日，央行等部门出台一揽子政策，开启一系列政策组合拳。这些政策有效扭转了市场对经济前景的长期悲观预期，提升风险偏好，引爆一轮急涨行情，市场摆脱了持续三年的低迷走势。但是急涨急跌之后，市场还需要重新整固，以等待基本面变化做出方向选择。当前宏观仍处在产能周期和库存周期的下行期，传统行业和新兴产业都面临产能过剩的压力，新一轮产能周期上行的引领行业也还并不清晰，当前政策可以起到兜底的作用，但是能否引领经济走出低谷可能还需要更多条件配合。我们将继续观察政策的施力方向和力度，判断未来产能周期重回上行的节奏和引领行业。组合运作方面，在政策出现明显转向信号后，加配了一些非银的仓位，以提高组合的β，应对市场可能出现的上行风险。其他仓位基本维持稳定。","declarationDate":"2024-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.337Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1171319","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f4883","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"库存周期在2023年二季度见底之后，修复的速度比较慢，PPI见底之后反弹幅度也比较小，而且始终未能转正，对应企业盈利增速见底之后没有系统性修复。出现这些情况的原因主要是因为我们处在产能周期的下行期，工业企业产能利用率处在持续下滑过程中，抑制了库存周期上行的弹性。这种背景下，选择行业和公司的逻辑更多考虑选择底部盈利确认的子行业，赚取盈利预期好转带动的估值修复的钱，但是缺乏盈利持续提升的机会。上游行业由于相对的盈利韧性和偏低估值，表现相对较优。在资本整体回报率下行的背景下，上游资源品需求和供给的相对刚性导致盈利表现相对较好，接下来仍是我们主要配置的方向。基于上述宏观背景和企业盈利增速的变化，本基金在运作上着重两个方向，一是具备价格弹性的上游资源品，二是周期底部反转预期的子行业。预计下半年这仍将是本基金主要的配置思路。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.334Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1147609","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f4882","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"企业盈利去年下半年起逐渐走出底部，但是在产能过剩和下游去杠杆的背景下缺乏向上的弹性。全球制造业也逐渐步入补库存的周期，制造业PMI同步回升，但同样面临信用收缩、利率高企的问题而缺乏向上的动力。资金仍然在红利和主题里面寻找机会，但是多了一些周期底部拐点的机会和供给约束品种的上行机会。同时全球央行今年即将结束紧缩周期进入降息周期，利率下行、信用扩张的预期可能在下半年重启。在市场整体估值不高的情况下，组合维持了中性偏高的股票仓位，主要持仓标的聚焦于一些盈利下限比较高的企业，这些公司在不利的宏观环境下仍然坚守主业，努力探索如何发挥自己的优势度过经济周期低迷的阶段。策略上更多关注处于周期底部时间比较长的行业，其中优秀的企业的估值已经充分反映了对未来经营情况的不乐观，股价的安全边际较高，这时如果行业有出清或者走出底部的迹象，也是把握底部预期反转的投资机会。我们的组合集中配置了金、铜为主的资源品和养殖为代表的周期底部反转品种，在不确定性中寻找一些确定的方向。","declarationDate":"2024-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.331Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2024年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1066733","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f4881","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"2023年经济整体呈现缓慢恢复的状态，工业企业利润在7月份前后创出低点后逐月修复，但是由于经济主体缺乏资本开支的意愿，市场对未来经济修复的持续性存疑。按照经典周期理论，我们已经从库存周期的下行中逐渐探明底部，走向修复的过程，市场底部也应该随之探明。但是现在经济的中长期下行压力盖过了周期修复的力量，一些结构性和制度性的因素导致市场各主体都采取了比较保守的应对策略，所以企业盈利的恢复也没能带来估值的修复，投资者不愿意拉长组合的久期，主题和红利这两种久期最短的投资方式显著跑赢。在市场整体估值不高的情况下，本组合维持了中性偏高的股票仓位，主要持仓标的聚焦于一些盈利下限比较高的企业，这些公司在不利的宏观环境下仍然坚守主业，努力探索如何发挥自己的优势渡过经济周期低迷的阶段。由于交易因素或者行业属性的原因，这些公司失去了市场关注，出现了十年不遇的低估值状态。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.328Z","mo":"展望未来，基本面看，企业盈利见底后缺乏向上的弹性，市场也无法预计盈利修复的持续性如何，所以企业盈利的恢复仍然无法成为引导市场向上的因素。在市场主体可以形成更长时间的稳定预期之前，投资者仍将处于无法拉长投资久期的状态，资金预计还是会在红利和主题中寻找短期获利机会。策略上更多关注处于周期底部时间比较长的行业，其中优秀的企业的估值已经充分反映了对未来经营情况的不乐观，股价的安全边际较高，这时如果行业有出清或者走出底部的迹象，也是把握底部预期反转的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1057178","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f4880","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"三季度，经济运行方面最主要的特点就是PPI、PMI和工业企业利润几个指标确认拐点，政策方面最重要的变化是7月24日的政治局会议的表述释放明显积极信号。与此对应，行情方面的特点是顺周期板块、商品等走出比较明显的相对收益。这是我们一直强调的周期底部确认带来的预期修复。拐点确认之后，主要矛盾变成盈利上行的幅度和持续性，但是由于企业部门和居民部门加杠杆的意愿不强，同时上个周期的高盈利带来的持续的资本开支导致供给压力持续较大，这一轮盈利修复的弹性可能不是很大。所以接下来的行情，我们认为主导因素将从分子端转向分母端，财政政策的变化和美债利率成为主要关注变量。我们的组合保持了相对比较高的顺周期板块的配置，包括有色金属、化工、机械等行业，需要在当前时点做一些调整，往久期更长、估值更有弹性的板块去调整。组合的配置以个股逻辑为主，挑选顺周期成长性的个股，进行底部布局，在未来一到两年内获取盈利底部回升叠加产能和收入增长的双重收益。我们的组合保持了相对比较高的顺周期板块的配置，包括有色金属、机械、银行、化工、建筑材料等行业，同时在景气度比较高的行业中，我们挑选增长逻辑比较确定，估值没有透支的个股重点投资，布局了医药生物、环保、电子、计算机等行业。后面我们需要在当前时点做一些调整，往久期更长、估值更有弹性的板块去调整。","declarationDate":"2023-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.326Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2023年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=984274","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f487f","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"今年以来，疫情政策优化后经济开始复苏，但是企业端和居民端都在修复资产负债表的过程中，投资和消费意愿需要时间恢复，所以虽然需求在缓慢复苏，呈现出来的结果是经济仍然疲软，企业仍然在去库存的过程中，盈利端的修复还没有体现在报表上。市场对复苏信心不足，但强化了“稳增长”政策预期。这种背景下，行情呈现出一定的主题性特征。从周期角度看，企业盈利的低点已经过去，不同行业分别在去年四季度到今年一季度完成了业绩寻底的过程，后面将逐渐修复。目前经济处在去库存周期的尾声，所以企业还没有感觉到订单的好转，但是一旦企业重新开始补库存，产业链的利润弹性将会体现，这一过程或将在今年下半年兑现。组合的配置以个股逻辑为主，挑选顺周期、有成长性的个股，进行底部布局，争取在未来一到两年内获取盈利底部回升叠加产能和收入增长的双重收益。本组合延续我们一贯自下而上精选个股的打法，保持了组合持仓的稳定。当前组合的重点是挑选业绩成长确定性较好的个股，等待下半年开始的复苏行情；目前基金配置关注价格具备弹性和低估值的板块，组合行业持仓主要为医药生物、建筑材料、机械设备、环保、基础化工、电子、计算机等行业。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.323Z","mo":"七月份政治局会议明确提出“加大宏观政策调控力度，着力扩大内需、提振信心、防范风险”，对经济的判断和政策基调发生转变，“政策底”确认。下半年预计经济将沿复苏逻辑继续修复，库存周期和PPI即将见底，企业盈利修复得到确认。美国加息接近尾声，逐渐向降息周期过渡，也有利于中国制造业的景气修复。下半年行情将从上半年的主题为主向顺周期方向倾斜，行情相对积极。","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=959400","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f487e","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"一季度市场运行的背景是国内疫情过峰，经济缓慢复苏，海外联储加息继续，人工智能技术出现关键进展。这种背景下，A股呈现存量博弈的特点。市场对宏观复苏预期不强，且受高频数据影响预期经常反复，企业业绩增长没办法成为行情主线，所以行情呈现一定的主题特征。人工智能行业由于前景广阔，基本面变化预期相对剧烈，带动TMT成为一季度表现最亮眼的板块，其余板块中黄金、建筑央企、中药等也有一定表现。本组合延续我们一贯自下而上精选个股的打法，保持了组合持仓的稳定，同时增加了部分TMT行业的配置。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.320Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=883297","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f487d","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"2022年市场压力比较大，国内经济压制因素较多，疫情防控和地产调控的力度都超出预期，海外美国联储持续加息对抗居高不下的通胀，流动性影响较大，中美国债利率倒挂，人民币汇率贬值。叠加一些黑天鹅事件的爆发，俄乌冲突，中美摩擦等，宏观不确定性较高，市场在这种背景下出现比较明显的下跌。四季度在市场情绪季度悲观的时候一直压制市场的几个主要因素都出现了方向性的变化，无论防疫政策、地产政策还是美国CPI都出现了积极的变化，无论A股还是港股都出现了比较明显的反弹。布局底部优质企业，把握估值修复的机会成了去年最主要的获利来源。","declarationDate":"2023-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.317Z","mo":"经济处在复苏的过程中，宏观不确定性下降。过去两年的宏观下行期，不同企业采取了不同的应对措施，好的企业已经可以从财务表现上甄别出来，当前投资工作的重点是密切跟踪这些企业，在确认盈利底部后就可以陆续加仓。 组合的配置以个股逻辑为主，挑选顺周期成长性的个股，追求进行底部布局，力争在未来一到两年内获取盈利底部回升叠加产能和收入增长的双重收益。在景气度比较高的行业中，我们挑选增长逻辑比较确定，估值没有透支的个股重点投资。 重点布局行业供给相对刚性或者出清彻底，在弱复苏背景下就可以有价格弹性的行业，关注有色金属、化工等制造业行业的景气向上的机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=866885","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f487c","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"经济在5、6月份的复苏之后重新下行。市场对经济的预期也从4月份低点后持续向上修正为继续寻底。从微观跟踪来看，和基建与地产投资相关的产业链景气度直到9月下旬才真正出现好转，虽然对三季度业绩于事无补，但是基本确认了拐点。但经济整体的下行和企业盈利的下行拐点目前还没有得到确认。投资上，现在的思路是选出质地优秀的股票之后等待业绩拐点的出现，目前重点是观察行业触底的次序，如何把握宏观的拐点和优质企业的买点是接下来最重要的工作。","declarationDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.314Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=803995","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f487b","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"一季度市场经历了比较大的波动，在疫情反复、联储加息、商品价格居高不下的背景下，市场对经济前景比较悲观，加上流动性上的一些冲击，导致市场回调比较明显。当时我们认为在影响市场的诸多因素中，居于主要矛盾的是经济增长的速度和结构，而现在影响经济增长的诸多因素中，核心因素是疫情，消费、地产市场都受到居民收入预期不稳的影响，而影响居民收入预期的最主要因素是疫情，所以随着我们防疫的条件逐渐成熟，检测、疫苗和药物逐渐具备，我们的防疫的手段也将更加完备，对经济的负面影响也将逐渐消除，认为未来2-3个季度将是对经济增长重新建立信心的过程，所以我们在4月份决定加仓。二季度最主要的变量是疫情和防疫政策的变化，市场对经济运行和前景的预期经历了从极度悲观到偏乐观的转向，流动性环境也非常宽松，市场在4月底之后迎来一波非常强劲的反弹，风格上延续了去年以来的行情，新能源等成长性板块引领市场上涨。但是市场运行同时存在一些隐忧，一是国内的经济复苏并不扎实，房地产还在惯性向下，地方“因城施策”的政策放松没有起到太大效果，基建受制于地方政府财政压力弹性也不够，消费受到疫情和收入预期不稳定的影响；二是通胀压力一直存在，PPI方面商品价格持续高位运行，CPI又面临猪油共振的压力；三是海外流动性持续收缩，联储加息速度快于预期，但至今位置还没有看到通胀下行的迹象。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.311Z","mo":"在这样的市场背景下，市场现在演绎的是经济复苏缓慢，政策比较呵护，剩余流动性宽裕背景下的“水牛”逻辑。这一逻辑面临的压力是通胀导致货币政策被动收紧，或者经济有效复苏、社融上行导致的剩余流动性下行的压力。这是下半年需要警惕的因素。我们的组合更多仓位放在长期确定性更高的个股上，特别是一些质地优秀的公司，面临短期的业绩或者行业景气的不利，股价出现回调，未来的预期收益率比较高，这样的公司我们有意识增加了配置，以期获得未来确定的较高收益。景气度比较高的行业中，我们挑选增长逻辑比较确定，对估值没有透支的个股重点投资。市场整体存量博弈的背景下，我们有意识地避免行业上过于集中，尽量挑选调整充分的个股和行业，避免追高。另外，通胀将是未来几年我们需要持续关注的宏观变量，去全球化导致全球制造业效率下降，同样产出要求的投资强度上升，而双碳背景下资源品行业长期面临投资不足的问题，通胀易上难下大概率为未来宏观运行的背景，这不只会影响很多制造业企业的成本和盈利，也将改变二级市场的投资风格，使得市场偏好的投资久期缩短，同时重视投资标的盈利的抗通胀属性，降低组合的估值水平。","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFundId":9650,"stockCode":"012003","shortName":"招商价值成长混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":12003,"currency":"CNY","masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-08T23:14:24.030Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","name":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050210000,"inceptionDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"招商价值成长混合","setUpDate":"2021-08-19T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":1417343798.4,"setUpShares":1417343798.4,"pinyin":"zsjzczhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20164045","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":718120210,"name":"郭锐"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"招商价值成长混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=781456","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecef07fea5b3eb04f487a","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000012003,"sao":"一季度市场经历了比较大的波动，在疫情反复、联储加息、商品价格居高不下的背景下，市场对经济前景比较悲观，加上流动性上的一些冲击，导致市场回调比较明显。我们认为在影响市场的诸多因素中，当前居于主要矛盾的是经济增长的速度和结构，而现在影响经济增长的诸多因素中，我们认为核心因素是疫情，当前消费、地产市场都受到居民收入预期不稳的影响，而影响居民收入预期的最主要因素是疫情，所以随着我们防疫的条件逐渐成熟，检测、疫苗和药物逐渐具备，我们的防疫的手段也将更加完备，对经济的负面影响也将逐渐消除，所以我们认为未来2-3个季度将是对经济增长重新建立信心的过程，市场也将沿着这个思路寻找收益的行业和标的。疫情之外，我们认为另一个需要重点关注的宏观变量是通胀，这不只会影响很多制造业企业的成本和盈利，也将改变二级市场的投资风格，使得市场偏好的投资久期缩短，同时重视投资标的盈利的抗通胀属性，降低组合的估值水平，这些都是组合应对可能的持续通胀的方法。我们的组合在坚持自下而上挑选优质个股的投资基本方法的同时，也将沿着前述思路对组合进行适当调整。","declarationDate":"2022-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:45:20.309Z","fund":{"_id":3000000012003,"__csrcFund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