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线包括两条：　　1）人工智能　　大国间长期博弈的焦点是科技，双方希望通过人工智能赋能各行各业，提升各个产业的效率，解决经济长期增长的动力问题。美国科技巨头在AI基建上疯狂投入，国内给海外算力配套的光模块、PCB等相关公司，业绩爆发式增长，股价表现出“越涨越便宜”的现象。　　2）金银铜　　金银铜价格的大幅上涨，主要原因包括美联储降息、全球再工业化、国际局势动荡等。美联储2025年降息3次合计-75bp，这是刺激金属价格大涨最重要的原因。其次是西方国家再工业化进程加速；基于产业链安全的考量，叠加资源民族主义兴起，供给侧的不确定性明显增加。　　2025年，组合有色的配置贡献了2025年大部分收益。消费配置比例过高拖累了组合业绩，全年以白酒为主；白酒长期商业模式并未发生改变，2025年的需求主要受消费疲弱叠加消费环境变化的影响。上半年虽然有参与海外算力，但早早兑现，原因是对高速成长性行业“资本开支前置，现金流后置”的担忧，对相关公司超高利润率及业绩持续性存疑，导致错失机会。此外，锂电池、创新药等也有阶段性表现，但不是贯穿全年的主线。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-27T05:47:37.414Z","mo":"展望2026年，市场共识是：科技博弈是大国间的主要矛盾，优先级最高，政策资源会长期倾斜；国内经济保持战略定力，地产维持现有趋势，有序出清；托底性的财政政策是为应对国内外突发状况；美元信用走弱及国际局势变幻会进一步增加各国对资源品的重视及需求。　　预计全年居民存款“搬家”会持续，市场流动性充裕，板块间继续估值分化，总体估值不贵。我们预判中短期的主线依然是科技（国产芯片、半导体设备、存储、商业航天、AI应用等）和有色，但展望全年，海外或是国内，科技成长方向的交易已非常拥挤，部分公司缺乏安全边际，面临波动加大的风险。随着“扩内需”措施逐步见效，“十五五”开局年低基数，CPI/PPI有望逐步改善，顺周期的内需乃至地产产业链或将有不错收益。需要警惕的风险是：1）AI泡沫；2）地产价格继续大跌。","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1448349","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28b0","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"第三季度A股与H股市场整体表现较好，沪深300上涨17.9%，恒生科技上涨21.9%。作为中长期最重要的增长点，人工智能是海内外各大科技巨头资本开支投入的重点，当前海外依然处于大规模AI基建阶段，与此相关的光模块、PCB等企业已经开始兑现业绩；国产算力受制于芯片供给，资本开支节奏相对靠后，但中长期的空间依然巨大。受电芯降价以及降息影响，储能电站投资回报率增加，储能电芯的需求预计会放量，盈利将改善；叠加固态电池新技术催化，三季度表现也较好。周期中的金、铜以及其他小金属因美元降息，表现突出。三季度的CPI和PPI数据依然没有起色，整个地产、消费板块低迷，延续调整。　　在配置层面，本产品在第三季度减仓部分估值偏高的TMT及有色，加仓受益“反内卷”相关的的周期品，总体维持相对均衡的配置。展望第四季度，对外贸易风险增加，高位的科技板块中长期依然会占优，但短期股价波动有可能加大。黄金及能源金属等在美元降息周期叠加逆全球化背景下的资源保护主义，价格有望中长期维持高位。创新药短期受大国博弈影响，但中长期的增长逻辑依然未变。按目前趋势，预计国内消费及地产链依然承压。10月下旬四中全会后，重点观察政策对内需消费场景的态度变化。“反内卷”是破局的重要手段，煤炭、钢铁、光伏、生猪、快递等行业反内卷持续推进，预计第四季度将会有更多严控产能的行业政策加速落地，预计反内卷行业（周期为主）盈利会有所修复。当前市场流动性充裕，整体估值合理偏低，市场依然有较好投资机会。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.477Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2025年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1371696","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28af","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"上半年宏观经济保持了较强的韧性，但结构有所分化。美对我国出口商品加征关税，导致出口企业面临的国际贸易环境大幅波动；局部地区的战争冲突对原油、黄金等价格造成冲击，这些不确定因素无疑增加了出口的难度。地产政策延续2024年“9·24”之后的宽松态势，但百强房企新房销售面积继续承压，未见改善；全国二手房成交量有所修复，价格指数仍处于探底过程中。上半年的消费呈现出分化走势，潮流玩具、国货品牌等具备情绪价值，性价比突出，消费群体不断扩圈，需求异常火爆；而传统的餐饮/白酒等因消费环境的改变，经营压力较大。以光伏为代表的制造业，开启“反内卷”的运作模式，通过建立全国统一大市场，有利于落后产能的及时出清，提升行业整体竞争力以及盈利水平。　　在配置层面，本基金上半年重点加仓创新药以及AI，主要基于未来较长时间，国内处于高质量发展阶段，部分行业的创新已取得较大突破，具备全球比较优势。以铜、金为代表的有色企业，受益于美元指数走弱以及企业的内生量增，盈利增长显著。传统消费受制于居民收入预期下降以及消费环境的变化，盈利承压，但从中长期维度看，其估值已整体低估。","declarationDate":"2025-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.474Z","mo":"在没有重大政策刺激的背景下，宏观基本面将维持既有趋势。我们预计下半年充裕的流动性是支撑市场的一个重要原因。我们继续看好“哑铃”配置策略，一类配置高股息个股，追求正收益；一类配置科技成长主题个股，主要集中在人工智能、创新药、机器人等；虽估值不便宜，但这些行业是高质量转型发展的必然趋势。“反内卷”也是下半年值得重视的方向，尤其产能有实质性出清，价格明确见底的行业。","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404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　　经历3年疫情影响，年初伊始，市场对于经济的快速修复有较高预期。按照过往的宏观经济分析范式，市场认为中央政府会大力加杠杆以及刺激地产来托举经济。领导层从长远着眼，坚定走高质量发展的转型道路，避免大干快上，避免大水漫灌，对低效基建投资保持克制，对地产限购采取渐进式放松。出口受制于复杂国际局势，各种贸易壁垒林立。消费者收入预期偏弱，有效需求不足；物价指数下半年持续回落，形成通缩预期。　　房地产调整过于剧烈是内外投资者当下最担忧的基本面问题之一。虽然各一线城市都已放松限购，降低按揭利率，但销售和投资数据短期内并未看到有效企稳。地产销售的企稳是整个宏观经济企稳向上的必要条件，投资者需看到更加积极的信号，才会重拾信心。　　外资流出也是影响23年市场整体表现的一个重要因素。一方面美元的无风险收益率明显偏高；另一方面美国在AI领域引领新一轮产业革命，一大批科技公司市值迭创新高。　　23年本基金的行业配置始终坚持均衡策略，自下而上选择长期竞争优势突出的好公司。消费板块以可选类高端白酒为主；由于经济活力下降，高端白酒动销放缓，批价有所松动，相关公司调整幅度较大。我们认为遭遇行业不景气是任何一家企业在发展过程必然都会遭遇的挑战，基于高端白酒优秀的商业模式，公司管理层积极应对，这些企业的长期内在价值仍在增长，性价比突出。新能源产能扩张过快，23年的国内外需求同时有所降速，中期将面临一轮持续去产能的过程，这部分持仓在配置时预料不足，造成较大损失。国家出台一系列政策，但依然未能稳定房价；虽然头部企业大概率能渡过此次危机，获得长期份额的明显提升，但短期的销售和存货减值压力巨大。煤炭有色等行业盈利稳定、分红比例高，成为市场避险一致性选择，为组合贡献较多正收益。TMT中与AI相关的通信、传媒类公司，是23年唯一有长期产业逻辑的机会，尤其与算力相关的硬件公司将持续受益；应用类的机会相对偏早期，这部分配置也获得一定正收益。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.459Z","mo":"展望2024年，宏观经济依然有许多挑战：外部面临选举大年，各种地缘冲突不断，贸易摩擦持续；国内房地产销售投资还未企稳，地方基建投资能力受限，居民消费意愿偏弱。但我们也可以看到许多积极的长期变化：中国制造业出海已具备越来越强的竞争力；汽车、锂电池、光伏组件等产品性价比突出，只要有一个相对公平的竞争环境，这些企业完全可以开拓一片全新的增量市场。制造业出海背后依靠的是中国庞大工程师红利以及完备的产业链，这些优势中短期看不到太多的竞争对手。市场预计美联储24年年中开始降息，这将为央行的利率调整打开操作空间；汇率稳定也有助于提升内外资信心。虽市场当前的中长期预期悲观，各类优质企业估值已显著低估，但只要数据层面有企稳迹象，预计估值修复就能带来较好的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1050470","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a8","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"7月下旬召开的中央经济政治局会议，对下半年的经济部署是一次重要政策信号，有利于提升投资者风险偏好。例如：“房地产新形势的供求关系”，“活跃资本市场，提振投资者信心”，这些定调都是重大变化，“政策底”已基本明确。证监会在8月出台与之相应地一系列具体措施，如：减半征收印花税，大股东减持新规，再融资节奏控制等。这些举措对于优化资本市场投融资有积极作用，但市场表现对利好政策不敏感，投资者的风险偏好持续下降。　　市场（尤其是外资）顾虑的问题既有对长期增长潜力的担忧，也有对短期财政刺激力度过高预期的落空。但我们也要看到宏观经济的积极变化：①地产政策进一步大幅放松；一线城市认房不认贷，降低首套和二套的首付比例，降低存量房贷利率；②个税抵扣额的提高，以刺激民众消费潜力；③从法律层面保护民营企业家，提振信心；④积极改善外部关系，为制造业出口创造有利条件……　　我们认为这一系列重磅政策会在某个临界点起作用，坚信在高质量转型发展过程中，部分优质公司会变得更具竞争力，长期盈利能力会变得更强。　　当前，市场整体估值隐含较多悲观预期（汇率贬值、外资净流出、房地产救市效果不佳、地方化债进度缓慢、外部关系扰动等），对于估值被严重低估、未来具备长期增长潜力等标的我们在操作策略上是“越跌越买”，均衡配置顺周期、可选消费、新能源等行业。在可比范围内，不断优化持仓组合，耐心等待企业价值回归合理。","declarationDate":"2023-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.456Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=986572","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a7","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"上半年市场观点逐步从“强预期”演变为“弱预期”。疫情放松后，市场一度对消费、投资的修复抱有较高预期，但5-6月的宏观数据与微观调研反馈，经济复苏力度“不及预期”，消费、顺周期等板块盈利改善的幅度相对有限。房地产和基建投资持续承压；新能源汽车的行业竞争格局有加速恶化迹象，新势力推新品节奏加快，传统燃油车大幅降价去库存。光伏面临出口受阻，硅料价格前期偏高等压力。以ChatGPT为代表的人工智能新技术迅速起势，预计将带动国内半导体、计算机、传媒、通信等行业高速发展。一边是消费、周期、新能源等板块的“弱现实”，一边是TMT等板块的“强预期”。　　资金面总体宽松，政府出台了一系列稳增长政策（例如：降5年期LPR，新能源车购置税减免，鼓励家居消费等），但市场对于经济的长期增长动能信心不足。多数资金在上半年选择阻力最小的方向，交易长期增长空间大的人工智能以及低估值高股息的中特估这两条主线。受美联储加息及相对疲弱的基本面影响，上半年人民币汇率波动较大，对外资的净流入造成一定冲击。　　资产配置上，产品本季度延续相对均衡的风格。顺周期板块，增配悲观预期释放充分的地产、煤炭、重卡等。消费板块，本产品依然坚持上半年可选消费为主，减持必选消费。新能源竞争格局处于持续调整过程，但当前估值普遍已回落至合理甚至偏低区位，长期成长逻辑依旧未变，本产品增配长期格局相对稳定的细分行业。受益人工智能爆发，本产品减持了部分估值迅速修复至合理甚至偏高位置的传媒持仓。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.453Z","mo":"展望下半年，市场积极因素正在累计。首先，随着美联储加息预期阶段见顶，人民币汇率接近22年高点后，预计将企稳回升。其次，国内主动去库存周期接近尾声（例如：光伏和新能源汽车产业链上半年各环节主动降价去库存），企业盈利下半年有望企稳回升。估值角度，预计多数行业上半年业绩承压，但一些偏长期的问题被市场充分定价，不少好公司的估值调整充分，长期性价比突出。配置上，我们下半年相对看好竞争格局清晰，供给端产能出清较为充分的行业。","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=955804","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a6","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"开年以来，市场走势依然未能跳脱“强预期，弱现实”的基本框架。疫情放松后，市场一度对消费、投资的修复抱有较高预期，但近期各个行业的微观调研反馈，经济复苏力度“不及预期”，消费、顺周期等板块盈利改善的幅度相对有限。新能源汽车的行业竞争格局有加速恶化迹象，新势力推新品节奏加快，传统燃油车大幅降价去库存、保市场份额。光伏面临出口市场空间受限，硅料价格依然偏高等压力。以ChatGPT为代表的人工智能新技术迅速起势，预计将带动国内半导体、计算机、传媒、通信等行业高速发展。一边是消费、周期、新能源等板块的“弱现实”，一边是TMT等板块的“强预期”。　　资产配置上，本产品本季度延续上季度相对均衡的风格，顺周期尤其是地产及地产链相关的公司是一季度重点调增方向，包括地产、煤炭、重卡等。消费板块，本产品依然坚持上半年可选消费为主，下半年着重考虑必选消费，主因前者业绩增速相对后者占优。新能源的竞争格局处于持续下行过程，当前估值普遍已回落至合理甚至偏低区位，行业长期成长逻辑依旧未变，本产品预计择机加仓。受益人工智能爆发，本产品持有的传媒类公司，其估值迅速修复至合理甚至偏高的位置，本产品也将择机减仓。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.451Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=883912","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a5","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"2022年的宏观经济面临内外多重挑战，市场剧烈波动，风格不停切换。本产品净值受此影响，也跌宕起伏。主要原因如下：1）受新冠疫情的冲击，国内各环节供应链受到较大程度的冲击，投资乏力，消费预期减弱，导致各类资金对宏观企稳的信心不足；2）美联储持续加息以抑制通胀，海外经济体衰退预期不断累加；3）俄乌冲突引致的制裁导致全球大宗商品供应链紊乱，尤其是能源品。内外部复杂局面导致市场风险偏好大幅下降，多数行业的盈利能力下降。　　四季度中后期，内外部宏观环境出现了较为积极的变化：美国CPI走弱，加息预期见顶，美十年期国债利率下跌，人民币汇率明显修复。G20中美元首深入沟通，部分打消外资的不明预期，有利于悲观情绪修复。历时3年的疫情防控措施，在12月迎来拐点，经济发展重回正轨，修复市场主体信心成为上下各方主要工作。积极有利因素不断累加，例如：中央经济工作会议对2023年的发展思路作出全面部署，重点促进消费；监管层鼓励平台经济走向国际竞争；权威人士重申房地产为“支柱产业”，放开地产股权融资等等。　　2022年来自流动性层面的扰动有限，主要指数的估值有两个较为明显的低点，分别在4月底和10月底。本产品前期持有稳增长相关的房地产等，适当增加了上游配置，减持了部分格局变差的新能源中游标的。二季度后期随着上海疫情解封以及经济刺激政策的出台，兑现了部分地产板块收益。煤炭因需求侧预期走弱，也少量减仓；另加大了新能源的持仓比例。下半年，我们加持的部分新能源标的受到较为严峻的挑战：新能源尤其电动车受销量增速下降，竞争格局加剧，全产业链调整明显。白酒等偏消费类公司因疫情防控，旺季需求落空。在四季度市场预期最差阶段，基于对企业内在价值被明显低估的判断以及对国内长期经济增长的信心，本产品适度增加了消费、互联网配置比例，调整了部分周期品持仓，少量增持了跌幅较大的光伏组件等。","declarationDate":"2023-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.448Z","mo":"展望2023年，影响市场的两大主要因素——美联储加息与国内疫情，都已转向。提振市场主体信心、发展经济成为2023年的工作重点，预计各种产业政策“暖风”持续不断，效果将逐步显现。国内宏观经济稳定且边际向上的基本面趋势将是吸引外资重新流入的重要“α”。外部局势可能是制约市场的主要风险：逆全球化趋势越发明显，欧美等明确表示重建重要产业链（以电动车、光伏为代表），公开打压国内芯片产业等，这些将增加国内制造业出口压力。　　市场层面，主板注册制的全面推行，将加大金融扶持实体经济力度，对A股生态结构优化意义深远，有利于提高长期风险偏好。随着各种稳增长政策的落地执行，可以预期各类企业的盈利能力将逐步走出低谷。预计2023年估值提升对部分行业的影响更为显著，例如房地产、互联网等。　　资产配置方面，本产品坚持相对均衡的风格，主要集中在以下三个方向：监管政策优化的房地产、互联网；其次是受益地产投资相关的大宗品、建材家居；还有盈利端率先走出低估的餐饮旅游、食品饮料，长期空间巨大的新能源(电动车、光伏)。","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=866304","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a4","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"三季度，以沪深300为代表的大市值公司和国证2000为代表的中小市值公司股价先后见顶回落，我们认为造成市场大幅波动的主要原因如下：（1）疫情多地散发对于经济稳增长的困扰，尤其对消费的冲击更为显著；（2）美联储为压制通胀不惜牺牲经济增速而持续加息，这对全球各类资产的价格或估值造成重大影响，例如：汇率、大宗品价格、成长股估值等；（3）俄乌冲突持续导致全球供应链紊乱，尤其是欧洲能源价格；逆全球化势必会推升长期通胀水平，拉大贫富差距，激化各种矛盾。  在三季度，我们部分持仓标的受到较为严峻挑战：新能源尤其电动车受销量增速下降，竞争格局加剧的影响，全产业链调整明显；但从渗透率来看，未来的空间依然广阔，调整后的性价比依然很高。上游周期类品种在交易经济衰退的影响下，相关商品价格承压，盈利环比下降。消费类公司因疫情防控，旺季需求基本落空。地产出台部分救市政策，这对于稳定销售、投资有积极作用，中短期有相对收益；海外能源价格维持高位，煤炭延续上半年的高景气，估值依然不贵。  当前面临的宏观环境较为复杂多变，美联储加息空间还有多大，俄乌冲突会如何演变，这些问题难以获得清晰结论。我们主要目光依然放在国内：疫情防控的变化，地产托底力度，企业家信心的修复等内部变量相对更为重要。估值层面，主要指数落入明显偏低分位区间，负面因素交易得较为充分。我们依然坚持均衡配置风格（消费、新能源、地产相关周期为主），始终把着眼点放在寻找企业的长期α上，不断比较，持续优化。","declarationDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.445Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=803645","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a3","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"上半年的宏观经济面临多重内外部挑战，市场剧烈波动，先抑后扬。主要原因如下：1）前期受新冠疫情的冲击，国内各环节供应链受到较大程度的冲击，消费预期弱，疫情持续变化导致投资者对于稳增长的信心不足；2）海外通胀不断创新高，美联储持续加息抑制通胀，海外交易经济衰退的预期陡增；3）俄乌冲突引致的制裁导致全球大宗商品供应链紊乱，尤其是能源品。内外部的复杂局面导致市场风险偏好大幅下降，例如4月下旬新股首日破发频次明显增加。5月下旬，中央层面稳增长的政策措施力度明显加大，例如降低5年期LPR，减免新能源汽车购置税，互联网监管规则的明确等等，市场信心逐步得到修复。国内流动性层面依旧充足，但主要指数的估值都跌至历史低分位区间。  本基金前期持有稳增长相关的房地产等，适当增加了上游配置，减持了部分格局变差的新能源中游标的，维持消费等仓位不变。二季度后期随着上海疫情解封以及经济刺激政策的出台，兑现了大部分地产板块收益。因煤炭价格管制，需求侧预期走弱，也进行了少量减仓。另外加大了景气度持续提升的新能源持仓，尤其整车企业在新车型的催化下，表现较好。对消费的悲观预期随着疫情防控政策的优化有所修复，本基金持有的高端白酒、大众食品也为净值增长贡献了一定正收益。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.443Z","mo":"展望下半年，各地疫情管控措施不断优化，稳增长成为下半年的工作重点，相信效果会逐步显现。经过充分地交易，美国加息、地缘冲突对于国内市场的负面冲击可能会下降，国内宏观经济稳定且边际向上的基本面趋势是吸引外资流入的重要“α”。  市场层面，虽然成长股的估值在5、6月份有所修复，但整体风险释放较为充分。各种稳增长政策的落地执行，可以预期企业盈利在下半年或将环比小幅改善。风险方面，房地产的债务出清持续进行，断供如扩大化可能会导致重大金融风险，对此我们需要保持高度警惕。","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=781088","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a2","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"一季度市场剧烈波动，我们认为主要原因如下：（1）疫情再次爆发对于稳增长的信心明显不足；（2）美国持续加息；（3）疫情的扩散；（4）中美对抗升级；（5）俄乌冲突引致的制裁导致全球供应链紊乱。  这些因素在短期共振带来市场超预期地调整。3月16号金融稳定委员会传递出的积极信号及时从交易层面打破负反馈，但就经济基本面而言，投资、出口、消费都难言乐观，多数参与主体认为要实现2022年的经济增长目标压力增大。石油、天然气、煤炭等能源价格高位，成本上涨及供给短缺预期推动各农产品价格创新高，海外滞涨压力越发明显。总体上，我们认为虽然估值风险释放较为充分，但盈利压力犹存，找到合适投资机会的难度越来越高，需对预期回报率的下降做好充分心理准备。  本基金在一季度继续持有稳增长相关的房地产等，适当增加上游配置，继续减持部分格局在变差的新能源标的；消费类公司的需求受疫情影响，估值调整充分，小幅下调原有的持仓比例。","declarationDate":"2022-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.440Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=722958","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a1","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"2021年的全球经济活动继续受新冠疫情的困扰，部分供应链矛盾突出，对相关上下游产业影响很大。总体而言，宏观经济数据呈逐季走弱趋势，传统基建平稳，地产投资受制于相关企业的风险暴露，消费相对疲软。上游资源端因供需错配，价格涨幅巨大，挤压了中下游的盈利。新能源（电动车、光伏风电）受益碳中和的长期战略，行业呈现高速增长态势，成为当下及未来一段时期经济增长的亮点。  操作层面，一季度市场风格剧变，核心资产调整幅度很大，减持部分高估的标的，并加仓地产及产业链相关公司；二季度抓住部分成长股的机会，例如新能源汽车、电子等，但持仓比例高的食品饮料、家电等带来较大的拖累；三季度反垄断政策加强监管，主要互联网企业整改过往不太规范的运作方式，承担更多社会责任，短期股价深度回调，但有利于长期的发展；四季度稳增长成为突出矛盾，地产政策出现边际上的放松，财政也开始加杠杆，我们提升了投资产业链的配置比例。","declarationDate":"2022-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.437Z","mo":"展望2022年，稳经济成为主要矛盾，各种财政刺激政策陆续发力，新基建相关投资的效果会逐渐显现。地产的风险逐步化解，针对房企融资政策出现积极变化。高端消费依然保持较强的韧性，必须消费品、酒店旅游机场等随着疫情的好转，需求可能会有所修复；出口维持高位运行的压力会加大。  在投资策略上，我们认为市场指数层面缺少明显趋势性机会，高景气赛道预期充分，但依然有积极可为的方向：①稳经济相关的周期行业，例如地产、能源金属、基建等；②科技成长领域，电动车、光伏风电依然是景气度最高的行业，短期的扰动因素不改长期逻辑，需要动态应对；③受制于疫情的大众消费，例如机场航空、餐饮酒店、食品等随着疫情的好转以及提价预期，也存在一定机会；④港股调整充分，部分公司估值已进入合理区间，政策层面的边际好转，会成为重要催化剂。  因此，对于2022年的权益市场，虽然面临经济下行，外部加息的压力，但我们认为市场在细分领域仍有大量机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=713817","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f28a0","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"三季度，宏观经济延续上半年的回落态势。基建未有明显起色，地产的销售、投资加速回落，部分房企在紧缩政策之下，出现债务危机。这对于土地市场、竣工以及后端产业链都构成负面影响。“稳预期”的相关调整措施在部分地方陆续出台，一定程度上会缓和房地产的“硬着陆”。  在能耗双控的约束下，部分省份高能耗产业占比高，出现一定的限电减产措施，导致相关工业品价格短期大涨。煤炭等能源供给受限，价格大涨使得火电企业发电意愿受冲击，全国出现较大面积电力紧张。从长期来看，为实现“双碳”目标，更为环保的绿色能源会从成本角度倒逼产业升级。  疫情的偶发对于消费复苏不时扰动，汽车、智能手机、家电、餐饮旅游等，需求端和成本端双重承压。成长性行业中，电动车、光伏、半导体等依然表现强劲。3季度，反垄断政策加强监管，主要互联网企业都要整改不太规范的运作方式，承担更多社会责任。  在操作层面，宽松的流动性是依然市场稳定的重要基石。我们重仓持有的大消费类和互联网类公司在三季度表现不佳，这更多地是企业发展过程中，必然会经历地波动。多数企业的长期竞争优势并未被动摇，这也是我们选择坚守的原因。我们少量地增加电动车、光伏等配置，主要集中在有预期差的环节。在高速成长过程中，部分环节供需错配导致其获得超额收益比市场预期更为持久。煤炭、化工、钢铁等周期行业参与较少，主要是对供需变化把握不清，难以形成有效认知差，我们还需努力积累。","declarationDate":"2021-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.435Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050700000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合","setUpDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":592605760.34,"setUpShares":592605760.34,"pinyin":"axjhcz18gycyqhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801404357","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":141912162870,"name":"聂世林"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金2021年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=652071","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeced27fea5b3eb04f289f","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011856,"sao":"上半年，宏观经济数据呈现逐季走弱的趋势。一季度由于低基数，各项数据同比高增长，二季度随疫情缓解，基建走弱，地产投资增速回落，制造业投资有所回升；出口放缓；消费复苏力度在疫情的扰动下，也相对偏慢。受流动性宽松预期扰动、政策调控等影响，上游大宗原材料价格涨至高位震荡，这对中游制造业的成本构成较大压力。同样受疫情冲击，半导体产业链阶段性供需错配，叠加国产替代，部分元器件涨价显著。下游需求端，例如：智能手机、家电等，成本转嫁有限，其盈利受到较为严重挤压。符合未来产业趋势的新兴行业，需求高增长拉动的电动车、新药研发、光伏等，迎来了“戴维斯双击”的机会。  操作层面，一季度我们主要加仓地产及产业链相关公司，减持了一部分高估的核心资产；二季度我们把握了部分成长股的机会，例如新能源汽车、电子等，但更重的持仓带来较大的拖累。主要源自以下几个方面：（1）房地产的集中供地政策导致行业利润率大幅下滑，竞争格局进一步恶化，这对于我们的地产及家电持仓构成负面影响。经认真分析，我们预判地产未来较长时间房地产行业都处于寻底过程，报表端还将持续恶化，因此大幅减仓地产。家电更多是短期承压，长期竞争力没有破坏，我们继续持有。（2）互联网受制于偏紧的监管政策，虽然对这类企业盈利的实际影响有限，但估值波动很大。  长期看，市场风格变化难以准确预判。在此期间，我们把研究的焦点始终放在跟踪企业的长期盈利能力上。对于受政策环境变化或成本端冲击，但长期核心竞争力没有出现松动，估值处于合理区间的公司，我们会依然坚守。同时，我们也会积极拓展能力圈，加深对新兴领域的认知，尽可能把握相关投资机会。","declarationDate":"2021-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:50.432Z","mo":"展望下半年，疫情的影响边际减弱，经济逐步恢复，全球产业链的供需错配也将缓解。国内经济，地产基建投资继续回落，出口增速有压力；降准等政策有利于扶持中小企业，通胀率维持在合理区间，总体流动性依然宽松。  配置上，对于科技类行业，例如：电动车、半导体等，下游需求增长相对明确，政策友好。即使有调整，预计依然是市场重点布局的方向。受监管政策收紧，互联网龙头的长期盈利影响可控，在估值调整过程中择机布局。大众消费类行业，疫情对需求造成较大冲击，成本抬升，盈利逐步探底；部分细分子行业的估值调整较为充分，其中正孕育较好的长期机会。需求持续增长，供给受限的锂、铝、铜等，其盈利维持高位的时间比市场预期会更长，这也是潜在布局的方向。","fund":{"_id":3000000011856,"__csrcFundId":9027,"stockCode":"011856","shortName":"安信均衡成长18个月持有混合(011856)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11856,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T23:01:36.150Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","name":"安信均衡成长18个月持有期混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":40000507000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