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期有一定提升。综合上述情况，我们债市需要结合估值和政策节奏进行行情把握,账户会继续寻找中短期限绝对收益较高的个券进行配置，同时择机进行一定波段操作。","fund":{"_id":3000000011656,"__csrcFundId":9282,"stockCode":"011656","shortName":"天弘京津冀(011656)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11656,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T22:55:22.939Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-05-17T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘京津冀主题债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘京津冀","setUpDate":"2021-05-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5004018.48,"setUpShares":5004018.48,"pinyin":"thjjjztzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘京津冀主题债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1053677","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeceac7fea5b3eb04efaed","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011656,"sao":"7月资金面整体宽松，中上旬收益率整体以下行为主，月末在政治局较为积极的政策影响下有所上行，8月上半月资金面均衡宽松，下半月受地方债发行提速、税期走款、汇率压力以及央行“防空转”表态影响，银行间资金面呈现超季节性偏紧，隔夜利率显著抬升，现券方面中旬社融崩塌后央行意外非对称降息，债市下行，下旬资金收紧和权益走强等共同推动债市触底开始调整，9月汇率和发债影响仍未缓解，资金面较为紧张，利率整体明显上行。操作方面，我们在7月整体保持了较高的杠杆和久期，8月降息后进行了一定止盈操作，在观察到资金面出现一定超季节性收紧后适当降低了杠杆，同时，我们在观察到8月开始城投债政策出现明显转松后适当增加了一定城投债的配置。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:12.288Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011656,"__csrcFundId":9282,"stockCode":"011656","shortName":"天弘京津冀(011656)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11656,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T22:55:22.939Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-05-17T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘京津冀主题债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘京津冀","setUpDate":"2021-05-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5004018.48,"setUpShares":5004018.48,"pinyin":"thjjjztzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘京津冀主题债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=987674","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeceac7fea5b3eb04efaec","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011656,"sao":"一月的跨春节时点资金面波动较大，不过在央行的呵护下整体平稳，降息落空叠加经济复苏预期带动利率债长端上行，信用债受到资金面影响较大，曲线整体陡峭化；二月资金面波动幅度较大，经济数据处于空窗期，下旬受到央行指导银行信贷投放节奏和高频数据好转的影响，利率长债明显上行，信用债在机构较强配置影响下表现偏强，尤其中等资质主体利差压缩明显；进入三月后，随着经济数据落地，叠加增长目标的相对克制和降准落地，宏观周期和货币政策对于债市的压制减弱，债市配置力量持续偏强，带动收益率整体下行信用利差压缩；四月资金面整体宽松，资金利率仅在税期前后小幅走高，缴税结束后资金价格再度回落，债市围绕着经济数据和政治局会议演绎两次利空出尽，配合定期存款利率调降、税期月末流动性宽松以及下旬权益大跌，总体延续多头情绪，曲线平坦化，五月全月资金面维持宽松，利率中枢下移，信用分层现象仍然存在，期限利差极限压缩，基本面走弱较快，虽然降息缺席但存款利率下调落地，资金利率中枢下移，曲线大幅陡峭化下行，六月跨季资金面整体平稳，债市在超预期降息和稳增长政策担忧中走出一轮过山车行情，下旬在低于预期的刺激政策中收益率重回下行。操作方面，在去年末参与了一波中高等级信用债的估值修复行情以后，年初时点账户基本保持了中性杠杆和中低久期的状态，进入三月后，我们跟踪的机构配置力量持续偏强，尤其是保险资金的净买入情况较超预期，叠加前期担忧的宏观和货币政策因素都有所缓解，所以我们适当拉长了一定账户久期，主要选择了具有一定利差优势的券种进行配置，二季度我们观察到五周期的宏观层面中地产数据持续走弱，同时政府在刺激政策层面保持了相对较强的定力，我们整体维持了中性偏高的杠杆和久期，并在降息后进行了适当止盈。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:12.286Z","mo":"展望后期，我们认为宏观层面，地产行业在缺乏内生需求的大背景下复苏进度会比较缓慢，不过随着经济表现逐步走低，需要关注政策可能出现一定边际发力，但是我们认为从今年以来政府的表态和已经出台的政策来看整体定力较强，强刺激的概率相对较低；货币政策层面，在经济仍然处于偏弱状态时，预计货币政策不会主动收紧，不过相比于去年最为宽松的状态边际会有一定收缩，资金面的波动性可能会有增加；机构行为层面，二季度以来理财规模出现边际增长，净买入情况恢复较为明显，保险等机构的配置力量持续，整体来看机构行为层面对债市形成了一定支撑。需要关注，降息以后债市的赔率有所下降，不过我们认为大幅回调的风险可控，后续需要重点关注刺激政策是否存在超预期的边际变化，我们会保持好组合的流动性，同时寻找相对利差具备吸引力的券种进行一定波段操作。","fund":{"_id":3000000011656,"__csrcFundId":9282,"stockCode":"011656","shortName":"天弘京津冀(011656)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11656,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T22:55:22.939Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-05-17T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘京津冀主题债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘京津冀","setUpDate":"2021-05-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5004018.48,"setUpShares":5004018.48,"pinyin":"thjjjztzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘京津冀主题债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=963267","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeceac7fea5b3eb04efaeb","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011656,"sao":"一月的跨春节时点资金面波动较大，不过在央行的呵护下整体平稳，降息落空叠加经济复苏预期带动利率债长端上行，信用债受到资金面影响较大，曲线整体陡峭化；二月资金面波动幅度较大，经济数据处于空窗期，下旬受到央行指导银行信贷投放节奏和高频数据好转的影响，利率长债明显上行，信用债在机构较强配置影响下表现偏强，尤其中等资质主体利差压缩明显；进入三月后，随着经济数据落地，叠加增长目标的相对克制和降准落地，宏观周期和货币政策对于债市的压制减弱，债市配置力量持续偏强，带动收益率整体下行信用利差压缩。操作方面，在去年末参与了一波中高等级信用债的估值修复行情以后，年初时点账户基本保持了中性杠杆和中低久期的状态，进入三月后，我们跟踪的机构配置力量持续偏强，尤其是保险资金的净买入情况较超预期，叠加前期担忧的宏观和货币政策因素都有所缓解，所以我们适当拉长了一定账户久期，主要选择了具有一定利差优势的券种进行配置。","declarationDate":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面支撑利率下行，但短周期层面，非银机构仓位在降准后迅速抬升至高位，同时地方债供给对于配置力量形成消耗，整体使得利率市场呈现偏震荡走势；信用债方面，季度初期收益率快速下行，不过八月中旬以来在资金面波动加大以及监管政策等因素的影响下出现了一定调整；信用基本面方面，今年以来城投资质区域分化加剧，本季度市场情绪出现一定缓和，后续仍然需要关注边缘城投的信用风险，地产方面需要关注重点主体的风险暴露以及处置进展，其对地产板块的再融资，乃至上下游企业资质和地方政府土地收入都将产生较大影响。操作方面，季度内我们保持了中性偏高的仓位，精选了部分基本面出现改善的城投进行配置，展望后续，考虑到信用债估值暂不具备显著优势，前期利空因素仍有一定发酵空间，我们将适当降低组合久期，同时增加波段操作。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:44:12.266Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011656,"__csrcFundId":9282,"stockCode":"011656","shortName":"天弘京津冀(011656)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11656,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T22:55:22.939Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2021-05-17T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘京津冀主题债券型发起式证券投资基金","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","followedNum":0,"masterFundShortName":"天弘京津冀","setUpDate":"2021-05-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":5004018.48,"setUpShares":5004018.48,"pinyin":"thjjjztzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019600","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":121924243060,"name":"刘嗣兴"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘京津冀主题债券型发起式证券投资基金2021年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=655418","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}