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和新消费等方向表现较好，与内需投资相关及内卷竞争激烈的行业表现一般。本基金上半年自下而上优选个股，参与了化工、家电、医药、汽车方向。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.996Z","mo":"22年后经济供需持续恶化至今，在需求端促销费和供给端反内卷共同发力，以解决持续的通缩局面。当前政府与全社会对经济症结和未来政策方向已形成共识，分歧可能在于具体的政策执行和力度层面，相信未来会根据经济的承受力和效果等逐步推出相关政策，经济活力也有望逐步回升。上半年政府重心在化债和促销费。展望下半年，考虑财政前置、基数及净出口回落等因素，内外需及GDP增长应放缓。而7月以来近期政府着手加大了反内卷工作，意图通过降低供给来改善短期PPI预期，同时通过制度建设和规范新增产能等来改善各领域的长期竞争格局，这一工作不会一蹴而就，但对上市公司估值体系影响将非常正面。一些过剩严重的产业或仍将磨底，但投资机会将越来越多。因此预计下半年资本市场整体波动但结构性机会仍将较多。本产品将重点考察各行业的周期位置、政策与景气方向，聚焦于化债去风险的金融、反内卷的周期制造、以及部分估值合理的科技成长等方向，努力取得超额收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二五年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1350613","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898c9","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"2025年一季度市场整体呈震荡趋势，由于基本面仍面临一些不确定性因素，一季度市场以主题投资为主，高股息板块有所回调。一季度机械、汽车、有色、计算机、传媒等行业表现靠前，煤炭、石油石化、非银、交运等低估值高股息行业表现靠后。一季度AI应用、机器人板块表现突出，市场给予了较高的预期，部分个股估值呈现了泡沫化趋势，本基金由于注重估值和业绩的平衡，对于主题投资把握度不够，没有参与主题行情。组合里的个股基本都是基于中长期业绩布局，短期缺乏催化剂，整体表现不佳，特别是组合里仍保留部分高股息个股，对组合一季度造成拖累。组合配置结构基本延续了去年四季度以来的配置思路，适当降低了高股息板块的配置比例，适当增加了一些周期性板块的配置。在反内卷的背景下，部分周期性行业供给端有望得到改善，只要需求端不出现断崖式下滑，盈利能力有望得到改善，估值有望得到修复。另外由于港股处于估值相对洼地，一季度对港股也做了小幅增持。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.994Z","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二五年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1276425","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898c8","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"2024年全年上证指数上涨12.67%，沪深300指数上涨14.68%，创业板指数上涨13.23%。分板块来看，银行、电子、通信、商贸零售、非银金融等行业表现靠前，医药、食品饮料、农林牧渔、消费者服务、建材等板块表现落后。板块表现呈现出明显的哑铃结构，高股息和科技板块表现突出，处于中间状态的跟宏观经济相关的板块比较低迷，这跟2024年宏观背景相关，国内宏观经济在地产持续低迷的拖累下面临压力，海外也面临关税的问题压制预期，市场选择了确定性更强的高股息板块以及趋势比较明确的AI算力相关的科技板块。2024年基本延续了2023年以来的市场风格，对于注重成长和估值平衡的投资策略总体上仍然是不利的。2024年基于宏观的不确定性在年初本组合确立了三个看好的方向：医药、出海和高股息。全年回头来看，出海和高股息配置基本上是正确的，特别是高股息方向，出海下半年有回调，但是医药全年表现几乎是所有板块里最差的，严重低于预期。医药板块2024年属于重仓配置的板块，当时的考虑是医药免疫于宏观，医疗反腐边际改善，医药的机构配置比例较低估值便宜，但实际的基本面是大幅低于预期的，医药或多或少受到了宏观经济的影响，很多细分子行业罕见的出现了下降，医药整体基本面严重低于预期，医药配置成为2024年组合最大的拖累项。出海方向上半年表现较好，下半年受关税预期压制普遍回调，组合里出海方向比较成功的抓住了电网设备出海，电网设备受益于新能源建设、AI算力带动的电网设备投资需求增加，加上中国电网设备海外份额极低，叠加估值普遍较便宜，表现较好，为组合贡献了较大的超额收益。高股息全年表现较好，重点配置了核电、港口等细分板块，取得了较大的超额收益，但银行板块由于担心基本面趋势而错失。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.991Z","mo":"2025年我们对市场仍然保持乐观，国内宏观经济仍然有不确定性，但是积极因素也在积累，海外环境整体还是有较大的不确定性，但预计今年相关不确定性能够落地，预计比市场悲观预期好。叠加目前无风险利率处于低位，股票市场估值极具性价比，总体而言市场今年机会还是大于风险。虽然我们认为市场整体是低估值的，但是结构分化是比较明显的，过去两年表现突出科技板块和高股息板块整体估值已经不算便宜，TMT板块的机构持仓占比已经较高，接近历史顶部水平，特别是电子板块的配置已经比较拥挤，高股息板块的股息率经过上涨后也明显下降，从中期维度来看，这两个板块可能获取超额的难度加大，个股之间的分化会比较明显，除非AI应用超预期发展或者利率中枢继续大幅下降。今年我们认为超额收益可能会来自于估值低、关注度低、边际有改善的行业。我们比较关注的方向包括：周期涨价的方向，有一些供给并不过剩的行业今年如果需求略有回暖，加上政策层面鼓励反内卷，行业协同有望加强，具备涨价的期权；困境反转的行业，比如医药、部分消费，去年由于大的消费力下降，医药和消费去年基本面明显下行，今年部分细分领域有望得到改善；出海的方向，关税靴子落地后将迎来较好的配置机会，长期来看制造业出海是必经之路，具备全球化能力的企业仍是值得重点投资的方向；高股息方向仍然值得关注，但要注重性价比，港股高股息相对性价比更高；AI应用今年要密切关注，可能对很多行业都会带来一定影响，不过选股还是要基于基本面。总体来看，虽然今年仍然面临诸多不确定性，但是我们要看到一些行业基本面和政策面积极的变化。投资策略上坚持基本面投资，注重估值，虽然可能错失一些机会，但也减少犯错的概率。","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFund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21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.979Z","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二四年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1075437","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898c4","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"2023年全年上证指数下跌3.7%，沪深300指数下跌11.38%，创业板指数下跌19.41%。分板块来看，通信、传媒、石油石化、计算机、电子、煤炭等行业表现靠前，消费者服务、房地产、电力设备及新能源、建材、农林牧渔、食品饮料等板块表现落后。2023年以AI催化的TMT和高股息板块表现突出，相当多的板块都实现了正收益， 基金重仓的行业和个股表现明显落后。出现这种分化的原因固然有筹码结构的因素，但也跟宏观背景密切相关。2023年年初随着疫情放开市场对经济回暖抱有较高预期，但一季度以后经济复苏低于之前乐观预期，特别是房地产市场的持续疲软，又导致市场转向另一个极端：对经济过度悲观。2023年下半年到2024年年初这段是比较典型的熊市后半段走势，市场不断地阴跌带来的负反馈导致最终杠杆资金的出清，这一过程中估值的下杀不断刷新原有认知，对个人而言是值得反思的经验。2023年市场对于GARP策略而言是比较不利的一年，表现好的两个方向，要么是不看增长的高股息，要么是不太注重估值的TMT，所以从板块配置来看，表现靠前的板块基本都没有太多配置，主要依靠选股上获得了一定的超额收益弥补了行业配置的损失。这一结果基本符合预期，因为本人的投资策略本就是在符合GARP策略的框架下的行业均衡，不指望通过个别行业配置的暴露获得超额收益，而是依靠选股获得阿尔法。另外，下半年逐步增加了高股息板块的配置比例，也一定程度减少了组合下跌幅度。去年对组合拖累较大的主要是一些跟宏观经济相关的中小市值股票，这些个股由于业绩有所下调导致估值大幅下杀，叠加流动性问题，股价跌幅较大，值得反思的是对这些个股的处理不够果断。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.976Z","mo":"2024年我们对市场保持乐观，虽然国内外宏观经济仍然有不确定性，但经过2024年年初的暴跌市场对各种负面因素已经充分消化，估值已经跌至较具吸引力的位置，虽然指数未必有很大的上涨空间，但确实是选股的最佳时机。随着经济增长中枢的放缓，无风险利率已经显著下降，股市提供的静态股息就已经在大类资产里面显现出突出的性价比，只要市场预期稍有好转，就会迎来较好的机会。关于未来看好的方向，本人在去年的定期报告里已有阐述，现在仍然没有改变，即中长期看好三个方向：受益于老龄化的医药健康、制造业的出海以及高股息红利型资产。随着国内经济增速放缓，高增长的机会变少，需要在新的宏观常态下寻找确定性的机会。医药行业应该说无论从行业需求增长的确定性，还是从便宜的估值角度，都是很好的投资机会，但是医药行业过去一年的表现却差强人意，低于预期，可能跟筹码结构有一定关系，不过仍然是大的行业里面最看好的方向之一。制造业出海已经逐步得到更多投资者的关注和认可，不过这个方向选股很重要，不是所有能出海的公司都有机会，出海是看起来容易但实际很难的事情，需要长期持续的投入，期间还可能遇到各种挫折，我们需要选出过去5-10年已经在海外踏实耕耘，即将进入收获期的企业。高股息板块去年以来表现突出，而且投资逻辑越来越受到投资者的认可，我们认为这一板块仍然有较大的空间，估值仍然具备持续提升的条件和可能性，但细分板块和个股预计会分化，需要找到能够持续稳定高分红的公司以及由于治理改善带来较大的经营弹性和估值弹性的个股。后续我们还会择机增加高股息的配置比例，但是考虑到这个板块有明显的风格因素以及GARP策略还是比较偏向成长，我们会控制其配置比例。新的一年，我们仍然会坚持均衡的配置，坚持性价比，尽力实现稳健的收益目标。","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二三年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1059509","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898c3","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"2023年三季度上证指数单季度下跌2.86%，创业板指数下跌9.53%，沪深300指数下跌3.98%。分行业看，煤炭、非银金融、石油石化、银行表现较好，电力设备及新能源、计算机、传媒、军工表现落后。三季度对资本市场以及房地产市场相关支持政策陆续出台，经济初步有企稳的迹象，但市场情绪仍然较差，风险偏好持续下降，低估值板块表现相对较好，上半年表现突出的AI相关板块出现了明显的回调。我们在上个季度报告中也明确指出，目前AI仍然处于零到一的阶段，不确定性较大，属于主题投资，投资难度较大。近期逆周期政策明确发力，政策底和经济底共振，市场底部应不远。三季度组合继续增加了医药的配置比例，医疗反腐带来的负面情绪在三季度充分释放，而医疗反腐本身属于短空长多的事件，由此带来的下跌创造了较好的买入机会。另外，前面的定期报告中我们也阐述了对低估值高分红板块看好的逻辑，三季度也择机增加了相关个股的配置比例。组合中也有一些跟宏观经济相关度较大的个股在三季度出现了明显的下跌，是净值主要的拖累项，但我们认为经济底部已现，相关个股赔率已有较高吸引力。中国经济进入高质量发展阶段，增长速度有所放缓，投资布局也需要新的思路。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.973Z","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二三年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=992260","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898c2","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"2022年上半年，市场区间震荡，结构分化，分行业板块来看，通信、计算机、传媒、石油石化等行业表现靠前，消费者服务、房地产、农林牧渔、食品饮料等行业表现靠后。上半年经济复苏的力度低于市场预期，同时市场对于后续经济复苏缺乏信心，使得上半年市场呈现极致的结构性行情，大家对于估值模型中长久期的因素淡化，更加关注短期的因素，市场整体呈现低估值和主题投资的特征，中特估、数字经济及人工智能表现突出，跟宏观经济相关的板块和个股表现较差。本基金一直以来坚持估值和增长匹配，偏好估值合理的稳定增长类个股，跟上半年市场风格不太契合，同时去年底对今年经济持复苏的态度，组合配置了较多比例的跟宏观经济相关的顺周期个股，上半年基金净值表现一度落后，好在部分个股取得了较好的超额收益，弥补了组合配置上的不利。上半年表现最突出的AI主题，从产业角度来讲，确实是技术上的突破，会在很多领域提升效率，但是我们定义其为零到一的机会，仍然面临较大的不确定性，目前处于主题阶段，参与难度较大，上半年本基金也错过了机会。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.970Z","mo":"下半年我们认为随着国内和海外库存周期接近底部位置，同时国内相关托底政策的陆续出台，宏观经济有望企稳，虽然回升幅度有待观察，但市场之前悲观的预期有望扭转，跟宏观经济相关的板块和个股有望迎来估值修复的机会。但我们认为经济复苏是温和的，对于顺周期也不宜有过高的预期，应该挑选那些有自身行业和个股成长逻辑的、估值便宜的顺周期个股。从中期维度，我们应该思考在经济高质量发展背景下，经济增长速度适度放缓的情况下如何持续获取超额收益的问题。我们认为从需求和供给角度综合考虑，未来有三个方向可能是大概率能获得超额收益的：第一个方向是跟老龄化相关，未来十年是人口快速老龄化的十年，医疗健康行业从需求角度是未来少有的能保持较快增长的行业，行业估值处于低位，值得重点关注；第二个方向是能够走向国际市场参与竞争的优势制造业企业，有很多制造业企业已经在海外深耕多年，渠道、品牌和产能布局都已经比较完善，未来企业发展的天花板打开，估值也有望提升；第三个方向是高股息红利型资产，随着经济增速放缓，很多行业的资本开支会相应放缓，企业自由现金流改善，开始具备高分红的潜力，另外无风险利率的下行也凸显了红利型资产的稀缺性，本基金的GARP策略主要关注偏成长类个股，但未来会持续关注红利型个股的机会。上面是我们对于中期维度布局的思考，需要说明的是，未来充满不确定性，追求性价比是本基金不变的核心，我们将根据宏观和政策的变化、在坚持GARP策略选股框架下不断调整组合以适应新的环境。目前市场又来到比较低迷的时期，但我们反而更加乐观，因为有很多优秀的公司可以以更加便宜的价格买入，周期往复，变化的只是人心。","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二三年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=965725","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898c1","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"2023年一季度上证指数单季度上涨5.94%，创业板指数上涨2.25%。疫情消散后国内经济呈现弱复苏的格局，房地产销售缓慢改善，悲观预期有所扭转。分行业看，计算机、传媒、通信、电子表现较好，房地产、消费者服务、银行、电力设备及新能源等板块表现落后，一季度市场呈现明显的主题特征，数字经济和AI技术的历史性突破引爆了TMT板块的行情，机构重仓的板块受到资金分流的影响表现较差。AI大模型的突破性进展是目前看到的令人兴奋的投资方向，AI跟数字经济能够很好的契合，能够提升各领域的生产效率，我们也比较认可这是一个中长期的值得重视的方向。但是，一个新技术带来产业的发展不是一蹴而就，目前来看，AI技术还面临成本、适用场景等问题，总体处于主题投资阶段，更多是反应一个投资人乐观的远期预期，反映到业绩可能还需要较长时间，这对于偏价值的投资框架操作难度较大，一季度本基金也确实未能把握这波主题行情，我们会持续跟踪学习，尽量在自己认可的框架内、在控制风险的前提下把握机会。从另一方面来看，由于市场资金抽血效应，很多基本面良好的优质板块和个股出现下跌，反而创造了较好的买入机会。一季度本基金仍然坚持自下而上选股，在医药和中游制造业里面寻找个股机会。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.967Z","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二三年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=885519","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898c0","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"2022年属于典型的熊市，全年上证指数下跌15.13%，沪深300指数下跌21.63%，创业板指数下跌29.37%。煤炭、消费者服务、交通运输、石油石化等行业表现靠前，电子、建材、国防军工、钢铁等板块表现落后。2022年有两个板块表现出了明显的超额收益，一个是以煤炭为代表的能源板块，二个是以储能为代表的相关新能源板块。煤炭由于对于周期高点的担忧未能配置，储能由于跟踪不够及时和敏感以及对于壁垒的担忧也未能把握。回顾基金全年操作，上半年重点配置了电子、机械等中游板块，下半年增持了医药行业，减持消费和金融。电子行业成为主要的拖累项，由于消费电子行业需求超预期低迷，相关个股经历了业绩和估值的双杀，调仓不够及时带来较大损失。每一次熊市都是宝贵的经验积累，2022年让我深刻领会了要对周期以及市场钟摆的波动幅度保持足够敬畏。同时，2022年的熊市经验再一次检验了市场永恒不变的规律，那就是行情总是在绝望处诞生，当投资者普遍对某些长期问题担忧甚至绝望时，市场也就触底回升了。本基金全年虽然有失误和遗憾之处，但好在一直坚持了GARP策略，坚持业绩和估值的平衡，回撤幅度相对可控。同时2022年仍然继续在细分领域寻找市场未充分定价的行业和个股，部分个股也取得了一定的超额收益。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.965Z","mo":"2023年我们对市场总体保持乐观，国内宏观经济在疫后复苏以及政策促进下呈弱复苏趋势，海外由于通胀高企导致加息持续，由此带来经济衰退的风险并未完全解除，不过市场已经比较充分反映了海外衰退的风险，只要不发生波及全球的金融风险，那么我们对于股票市场就应该乐观一些。从估值水平来看，万得全A的PB估值处于历史底部位置，市场整体是非常便宜的，这是我们对市场乐观的基础。但是从结构来看，分化比较明显，机构重点持仓的大盘成长类个股平均PB估值水平仍然处于历史高位，最具代表的茅指数、宁组合PB估值均处于历史较高水平。从2016年以来，随着外资的持续流入，A股中最优秀的一批公司估值获得持续的提升，特别是2018年以后三年牛市这一过程加速，优秀公司的价值重估已经完成，甚至在2021年出现阶段性估值泡沫。另外一点多数公司市值这几年都有较大幅度的增加，往后看隐含的收益率已经比较平庸。我们认为后续的机会更多的在各个细分行业领域优秀的龙头公司，这些公司多数是中盘和小盘的个股。本基金从2021年开始也在逐步调整组合配置，减持估值已经不便宜的老一批核心资产，增持更具性价比的细分领域龙头中小盘公司。从行业来看，今年的机会可能更多集中在经济弱复苏和疫后消费修复相关行业中，重点看好医药、大制造、大众消费，特别是前两者，属于长期逻辑和短期逻辑共振的两个方向。医药行业长期来看受益于老龄化，属于朝阳行业，政策端有了积极的变化，同时机构配置和估值水平均处于历史偏低位置。制造业受益于经济的弱复苏和成本的改善，同时中国很多细分制造业龙头公司已经具备跟国际同行同台竞技的能力，有望充分发挥其成本优势扩大市场份额，这些公司主要分布在机械、化工和电子等板块。2023年是机会大于风险的一年，但需要投资人转换思路，自下而上挖掘个股阿尔法机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"nam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调整，来降低极致行情下的偏离风险。但是如果放弃好行业好公司作为选股门槛，就像一艘船没有了锚，随浪飘摇。均衡策略的核心是“反者道之动”，在捕捉动量的同时，一些进入价值区间的优质标的同样进入了我们的视野。它们可能因为各种风格因素出现了下跌。但基本面良好，公司业绩持续高质量增长，消化估值，或为未来获取收益留下了空间。","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二一年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=636179","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898b9","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"报告期内，市场波动较大，主要指数均下跌。上证下跌0.9%，沪深300下跌3.1%，万得全A下跌3.3%，创业板综下跌8.3%。本基金根据对宏观经济和市场交易结构的认识和判断，提高了组合中对估值要求的权重，降低了对商业模式要求的权重。根据股价中蕴含的市场预期，在坚持投资好生意、好公司的原则下，对组合进行了动态调整。组合表现良好。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.946Z","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二一年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=575468","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898b8","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"2020年延续了2019年较好的市场表现。上证全年上涨13.9%，沪深300上涨27.2%，创业板综上涨47.9%。行业方面，消费、医药、科技表现突出。本基金坚持均衡配置，投资“做好生意的好公司”。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.943Z","mo":"2020年是公募基金的牛市，收益中位数近60%。但从整个市场来看，这是剧烈分化的一年。全部A股的全年收益中位数仅为2%，接近一半的公司全年收益为负。仅有约15%的A股公司跑赢了偏股型基金收益中位数。我们把市场风格按照行业、公司、景气和估值进行分类。这种剧烈分化的行情中，好行业和好公司这两个因子超额收益最高，估值因子超额收益最低。这种风格形成的内因是流动性的变化。为了应对疫情影响，全球央行都采取了非常宽松的货币政策。较高的货币供应量推高了风险偏好，叠加较低的利率水平，总体上压低了折现率，让远期现金流在现值中的比重大幅提升。这就能解释行业和公司这种长期基本面因子变得更有效的原因。从交易的角度来看，头部公募基金规模正循环、外资持续流入、注册制对“炒小”策略的压制，都持续加强这个风格的赚钱效应。当然，不能忽视的是基本面的力量。存量经济下，龙头公司拥有更强的竞争力，能够持续攫取份额，获得更好的成长性。社会转型背景下，政策对科技、消费也表现出更多的支持。但是，行情演绎到极致，更多的是标签、情绪和筹码。对好行业和好公司的认知也被局限在行情中。这种状态可能在2021年出现改变。促发因素很难猜测，观察流动性的变化是最重要的。四个风格因子的有效性可能需要重新排列。周期优势的投资策略是以均衡价值为主，成长趋势为辅，坚持在好行业和好公司中进行投资。在极致的风格化行情中，更需要逆向思考，恪守平常心。用朴素的理念去寻找中期的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050100000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"富国周期优势混合","pinyin":"fgzqyshhxzqtzjj","memoNum":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20352285","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1923152360,"name":"沙炜"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金二0二0年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=559977","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8fe7fea5b3eb04898b7","stockId":3000000005760,"sao":"三季度市场波动较大，在7月的整体快速上涨后，8月、9月机构偏好的板块明显走弱。体现了经济复苏兑现后，市场开始对充裕的流动性现状产生了担忧。根据这种情况，本基金增加了均衡价值策略的权重，在保持板块配置平衡的基础上，增强了顺周期板块的配置。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:19:58.941Z","fund":{"_id":3000000005760,"stockCode":"005760","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":77,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2018-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":222661000,"market":"a","tickerId":5760,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"富国周期优势混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"富国周期优势混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5448,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:43.635Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-07-09T16:0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