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年债券市场无论从机构端还是居民端都出现了较为强大的配置力量，尤其在前三季度在权益尚未抬头，居民风险偏好较低的状态下，收益率持续顺畅下行。在操作上，我们在前三季度也让组合保持了较高的久期水平，四季度随着居民风险偏好下降，我们将组合久期回归中性水平。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.437Z","mo":"2025年，在较低的利率环境下首先对于银行等配置类机构来讲，配置的价值持续下滑，反之以交易目的参与市场的资金变多，会加大25年的不确定性，而对于居民来讲，由于当前的低利率环境，同时叠加当前居民风险偏好继续下降空间较小，经济环境和权益市场都有筑底企稳迹象，对于稳健配置的低风险偏好的增量资金有限，也为市场提供了不稳定因素。同时在经济环境制约下，我们预计25年债券市场或不至于出现大熊市，但整体的收益可能会出现较大的波动，所以对于25年的策略，我们更多的会依据我们对市场参与者行为的分析叠加左侧量化交易信号进行偏左侧长债波段交易，整体久期保持中性偏低水平。","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1252240","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec38a","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"三季度宏观层面依然利多于债券，政策层面预期改变较多，行为方面两度出现阶段性利空债市，作为应对，我们大幅提升了组合中高流动性债券比例。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.434Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1173027","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec389","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"上半年宏观经济层面利多于债券市场，为利率下行提供了基本条件；政策层面，财政政策发力略微矜持，导致债券市场供给略低于季节性，货币处于降息周期当中，资金面波动较为稳定，也为债券市场提供了较优的政策环境。上半年另一条主线为债券市场资产荒较为突出，一方面体现为以银行为主的机构端存贷差的下降，导致资产端有较多资金配置债券，另一方面在居民端也出现了资产配置主要集中在债券资产的现象，银行理财于债券类资管产品规模皆有较大增幅。所以在市场中我们看到一方面整体收益率处于下行状态，同时我们看到信用利差与期限利差都压缩到历史极值的分位水平，也体现出当前处于配置牛市而非以前的杠杆牛。在配置牛中我们主要通过五周期框架中行为周期的低频，中频，高频指标对配置强度进行跟踪，从而对组合仓位进行调整。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.431Z","mo":"展望未来，我们预计当前宏观与政策状态大概率继续维持利多于债市状态，同时行为层面机构于居民的资产荒短期内仍会延续，但需要阶段性警惕债市过热带来的仓位于情绪层面的压力。","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1145813","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec388","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"2024年的一季度，A股整体表现相对不令人满意，其中上证综指上涨2.23%，创业板指下跌3.87%，中小板指下跌5.95%，行业来看，只有银行和煤炭是正收益，其中电子、医药、综合、计算机跌幅较大。市场偏弱的主要原因还是对经济未来增长点有困惑，同时叠加地产下行压力，投资者自下而上地偏好困境反转及超跌反弹的行业。从我们的持仓看，没有追求主题炒作及超配银行，而是选择基本面相对确定的养殖、医药及上游资源，收益表现暂时欠佳，但我们对这些板块未来的回报率抱有信心。展望二季度，市场短期会关心一季报业绩的表现，业绩不佳的成长板块会暂时调整，我们会密切关注中美库存周期的边际变化，关注国内和经济相关性强的行业的机会。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.429Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1069927","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec387","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"2023年对于A股投资者是艰难的一年。上半年在AI浪潮的引领下，市场一路高歌猛进，市场在5月初到达了全年的最高点3418.95点，之后随着AI板块的调整，市场一路下跌到年底的2882.02。从行业来看，与AI相关的通信、传媒、计算机和电子依然是全年涨幅领先的板块，与地产周期下行相关度高的房地产和食品饮料跌幅最多，风格上看，小盘占优，红利占优。回顾产品的操作，在二季度和四季度有较显著的超额收益，对结构的把握还可以，但对仓位及红利风格的判断不足。回头看2023年，债券市场的绝对收益进一步下台阶，利率品的票息收入极低，年内央行的几次降息把债券整体的相对价值提升了一些，不过市场的预期交易变化极快，通过获取资本利得的交易难度极大提升。我们在2023年依然重视对交易赔率的计算。在3月初，我们适度提高了组合久期，在8月中旬降低了久期，在11月底提高了组合久期，这三次重要的战术操作为组合提供了较高的收益，并控制了三季度年内最大的回撤，这背后是我们对于市场状态的刻画之后，识别到市场的过冷、过热等状态，才能有针对性地去用仓位去应对行情的变化。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.426Z","mo":"展望明年，海外美债收益率回落，国内宽货币预期升温，十年期国债收益率下行，叠加国内经济恢复斜率平缓，经营业绩相对稳定的高分红板块依然是关注重点，其次在去金融化的过程中，出口需求的恢复可能是拉动中国工业企业增长的重要把手，因此受益于生产端中游制造恢复，供给端有瓶颈的上游行业值得重视；同时看好老龄化相关的消费行业，2024年开始，60-70年代出生的人口进入退休年龄，需求边际扩张，看好“银发人群”相关的如慢性用药、创新器械、医疗服务、保健食品等行业。站在2024年的起点上，随着2023年四季度债券市场的大幅下行之后，我们观察到目前的市场交易热度过高，债券市场对于风险偏好的定价较为充分，这是一段需要警惕的时间，而在警惕期之后，我们认为2024年在长期利率品种、超长期利率品种上会有比较不错的交易机会，交易机会触发的因素可能是在各类刺激政策出台之后带来的阶段性利率高点。","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1053654","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec386","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"三季度市场整体表现弱势，正收益主要集中在高股息板块，如煤炭、金融、石油石化等，成长股跌幅较多，如电力设备、传媒、军工、社服和计算机等板块大幅跑输上证综指。三季度的国内经济金融数据表现不佳，加之地产政策放松后数据依然不振对整个经济体的信心重塑尚未建立，且海外经济下行压力凸显，紧缩货币政策的负面影响尚未全面显现，内忧外困下，我们判断市场震荡的概率偏大，唯有努力自下而上挖掘各行业中有阿尔法的个股，持续关注经济复苏的进展。看好医药和科技领域，在这两年反腐或脱钩导致供给侧出清或受限的情况下，需求量依然能够维持的行业，其中具备真正创新力的公司会拓展份额提升利润率。三季度的核心行情在9月，9月出现了今年最大的一波回撤行情，债券各类品种整体回调，利率曲线熊平。市场参与者关心什么、看到什么，在资产价格上就会反映什么，而三季度市场最关心的问题在于资金利率中枢抬升，但很难精确计算资金利率中枢抬升的全部原因，可以参考的市场关注热度最高的归因是两点：一是央行可能在汇率市场维稳，二是利率债一级供给增加，最后导致的结果就是短端利率的抬升，从而导致收益率曲线整体抬升。在操作层面，我们在8月下旬观察到市场的拥挤程度过高，果断减仓、降低组合久期至防守状态，帮助组合较好控制了回撤。站在三季度末去展望未来，债券市场有较大的概率赚取资本利得的空间，一方面是基于短端利率去计算目前市场做多的赔率极高，同时在机构行为上可能有更大的机会。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.423Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=987670","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec385","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"2023年上半年，全A指数微幅上涨3.06%，中证1000（5.10%）、科创50（4.71%）、上证指数（3.65%）、深证成指（0.10%）均上涨；创业板指（-5.61%）、上证50（-5.43%）、沪深300（-0.75%）下跌。a股的结构性特征明显，AI相关的科技板块表现较好，通信、传媒、计算机、电子涨幅居前，地产、综合、食品饮料、建材跌幅居前。年初疫后修复相关预期向好，叠加数据随着经济数据环比增速回落，市场的悲观情绪逐步演绎，除了AI、机器人等主题逐步催化，相关产业链公司股价大幅上涨，大部分行业是估值下修行情。我们逢低加仓了一些优秀的医药、消费及制造业公司。整体仓位中性，结构上较为均衡配置。二季度，保持了较高的久期和杠杆，以应对市场的趋势交易特征。4月，行情符合机构行为周期定义的价值配置盘行情，形成了利率顶部区域，趋势交易的空间赔率已经足够大。4月经历了曲线平坦化，短端利率高位震荡，信用利差、期限利差仍在主动压缩，保险配置力量保持较强，理财资金持续改善，仓位周期仍然谨慎，因此相对利差策略在持续，但是趋势行情还未完全开启。5月，机构行为周期从价值配置盘行情转移到趋势交易行情。利率品表现好于信用品，核心原因在于短端利率下行带动利率曲线整体下移。6月，债券做多的故事和趋势仍在，继续在趋势交易行情中演绎，做多的逻辑有两个，一是β的空间，二是赚对手出错的钱。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.419Z","mo":"展望下半年，我们认为应该逐步乐观，修复资产负债表需要时间，A股中结构性机会依然存在。首先，国企其实是中国资产负债表中的重要力量，无论是其分红收益的资产证券化还是”中特估”、一带一路等对公司估值和业绩的逐步提升均是我们看好的方向；其次，中国制造业的比较优势在很多行业依然存在，机械设备（新能源设备、通用机械）、新能源（锂电、光伏）、船舶制造等依然是中长期值得关注的方向；第三，关注消费领域的细分子行业机会，比如零食连锁、茶饮料、休闲运动户外服饰等需求端的变化。第四，科技创新与产业变革，我们需要密切关注人工智能、机器人+、生物医药领域供给端的破坏性创新的发展，对于人类社会生产力的提升和生产效率的改变。我们的产品会持续关注相关领域的优秀制造公司，陪伴优秀的公司共同成长。未来一段时间，债市最关键的三个变量是：短端利率定价+仓位+情绪，需要非常重视拥挤做多的信号，当拥挤做多信号发出，届时是阶段性止盈的窗口。","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=963262","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec384","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"2023年一季度A股市场最亮眼的板块无疑是计算机，chatGPT无疑是市场最火热的主题，围绕此主题的计算机、传媒、通信、电子等表现较好，其他行业则收益平平甚至是熊市节奏。经济弱复苏叠加业绩真空期的环境下，chatGPT在引领全球科技行业变革浪潮中的巨大想象力空间成为了A股资金主要的选择方向。从产品的配置层面，我们提前布局了计算机、传媒、通信及中药等板块，但对于整体TMT板块并没有大幅超配，主要原因是目前看chatGPT在国内上市公司领域还属于脱离基本面的主题投资，涨幅较快且股价波动幅度巨大，仓位不足影响了产品收益率表现，但我们相信，随着其他板块的调整，比如消费、医药、新能源等估值的调整和消化，有基本面业绩确定性强的个股及面临困境反转的相关行业值得左侧布局。一季度，纯债市场面临机构行为周期和宏观周期的背离。在1-2月，宏观周期对债市造成了利空影响，市场出现一定程度的加息预期。然而，进入3月后，宏观和货币周期对债市的压力迅速下降，市场对宏观、货币的预期出现了修正。此外，机构行为周期也出现了做多信号，尤其是保险配置盘的力度已经远超市场预期。目前，趋势交易者的组合久期仍然较低，趋势交易的热情并不高涨，趋势交易者之间存在较大的分歧。我们在一季度通过主动调仓，适度提升了组合的久期，并切换了主要投资品种，以适应配置盘主导的行情。目前，债券整体估值水平已经处于中性，超额价值未来也将迅速被填平，同时曲线的某些位置已经出现明显的定价错误。未来一段时间，市场对利多更加敏感。我们将持续关注市场变化，灵活应对。","declarationDate":"2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.416Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=887731","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec383","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"从产品的配置层面，去年10月我们在A股调整时逐步加仓了优秀制造业公司，比如机械、医药、科技、储能等，但对消费板块配置力度不够拖累了四季度反弹行情的净值表现，主要原因在于对疫情的复杂性我们短期保持谨慎状态，其次居民的消费力是否能完全恢复到疫情前水平我们持谨慎态度。结合海外潜在的衰退，站在目前时点我们相对更看好国内内需相关的领域，住房改善相关的家居家电、新能源汽车、教育、交通、养老服务等相关行业。回头看2022年，债券市场的绝对收益低，回撤风险大，整体是赔率低的状态，对投资者的研究预判能力、交易应对能力的要求高。2022年宏观经济较弱，但是核心的宏观需求政策有所发力，对利率预期形成了多次扰动，而为了预防宏观预期出现拐点导致利率大幅上行的情况，我们加强了宏观经济预期的及时跟踪、深度研究和预判，于2022年9月开始看空债券市场（三季度运作报告），随后在10月份的确出现了年内宏观预期逆转交易的情况，由于我们提前进行防御性布局，为投资组合有效规避了债券市场的绝大部分回撤。2022年的债券市场整体处于绝对利率极低水平震荡运行，绝对利率水平极低这背后的原因是，宏观经济处于衰退摸底状态，货币政策不能容忍过高的利率，因此货币政策保持了稳定偏低的资金利率，从而控制着利率曲线保持在极低的绝对水平，而在作为市场参与者需要更加重视此类低利率环境中的赔率交易。重视赔率。历史上出现过几次衰退后周期的低利率环境，基本都出现了各类利差压缩到极限的情况，而在2022年我们也看到了类似的市场现象，这种现象本质上反映的是机构行为的周期性特征，因此2022年我们对机构行为也进行了重点跟踪和研究，把握住了二季度信用利差压缩的交易机会，在赔率极低的区域降低风险敞口，有效规避了四季度信用利差快速走熊的交易风险。","declarationDate":"2023-01-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.414Z","mo":"2022年12月的中国防疫政策转向放松是影响A股的重要的政策变化，国内政策红利叠加海外紧缩预期缓和，带来了阶段性市场的走强。展望2023年，美国经济或陷入衰退，资本开支周期和库存周期同步下行，美联储货币政策由鹰转鸽，美元指数回落将推升新兴市场风险偏好；国内经济2022年经历疫情和海外流动性冲击，今年出口周期转负，国内经济恢复依赖内需的全面发力，预期配套相关产业政策会陆续出台，PPI有望企稳回升。预计2023年A股的权益市场机会大于债市，配置方向看好与提振内需相关的产业政策刺激相关方向行业，比如消费医药、科技、新能源相关。站在2023年的起点上，我们认为随着2022年四季度债券市场的调整之后，整体的配置价值尚可，我们需要保持对配置性仓位的重视，对配置性仓位的调整也需要保持较高的灵活性；同时，由于2023年宏观经济向上的方向概率较高，只是节奏、幅度不确定，更需要加强对宏观经济、货币政策的预判，防止可能出现的如通胀上行、政策刺激力度过大导致的利率中枢进一步上行，而交易机会仍然可能是较少的，我们需要降低交易性仓位的收益预期。","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"m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利率债调整的基础上，信用债、银行资本工具的利率上行更多，这不是因为市场整体信用风险、银行信用风险上升，而是这两类品种的变现风险（或流动性溢价）在提升，也就是我们此前在四季度运作分析提到的“债券市场内生性的负反馈行为”，这类资产被抛售的直接动力来源于股债混合类基金、部分银行理财产品，由于股市赚钱效应短时间内快速减弱，导致了这些基金、理财产品赎回压力快速增加，因而被动减仓了信用债、银行资本工具。简单来说， 22年一季度债券市场的胜率短期快速下降至中性，1-2月更多行业状况的数据公布后逐渐修正了市场预期，胜率基本修复到中性偏高位置；而在赔率层面，债券市场整体赔率仍低，随着趋势交易者离场，赔率修复到中性附近。22年二季度，我们对债券乐观程度提升。债券胜率在提升。经过1-2月宏观状态的修正之后，目前宏观状态又一次增加了疫情这一因素，从我们的跟踪来看，本轮疫情的管控力度趋严对于宏观经济有一定冲击，对终端消费领域的负面影响较大，而在宏观经济结构的层面，二季度由于海外耐用品库存补足基本结束，届时我们可能还会面临外需最快下降的阶段。因此，二季度货币政策的适当放松可能是必要的。债券赔率在中性。目前趋势交易者空仓观望情绪明显，市场表现为剩余流动性驱动者稳定市场，市场低波动运行的稳定程度较高，因此我们将会左侧适当布局趋势交易头寸博取波段收益。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.397Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=725308","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec37f","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"2021年，债券市场开始讨论宏观无用论，我们认为不是宏观对债券定价无效了，而是出现了比宏观经济因素更直接的债券定价影响因素，一是货币政策，二是机构行为。货币政策。在2021年，货币政策目标更多盯住金融领域防风险底线，全年超市场预期的宽松，但工业品通胀水平较高，这在传统宏观-债券分析框架里是一组较大的矛盾，我们看到央行对利率曲线的强大控制力，这种情况下，我们第一步是承认货币政策和宏观经济状态的矛盾，第二步是应对，第三步才是通过研究识别背后的逻辑。机构行为。由于我们的分析框架重点研究投资者行为的周期性特征，我们很快适应了市场结构的变化，也较为准确地理解了周期状态给出的赔率特征，因此每个季度的重点行情都较为准确地识别出机会和风险。全年靠利率债波段策略、曲线定价策略获取了不错的收益。一季度识别出银行欠配，价值型配置者快速入场，我们重点建仓了超长债，二季度识别出趋势交易行情，保持了较高仓位的长久期利率债，三季度识别出拥挤交易，规避了全年最大的调整，四季度再次识别出银行体系加速配置行为，加仓了较高仓位的中久期利率债。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.394Z","mo":"我们对2022年全年的宏观经济状况判断比较中性，地产周期进入衰退，节奏和幅度难以确定，我们会持续关注，出口和制造业链条景气度较高，因此整体经济可能将持续呈现低波动的状况；货币政策在2022年将重点放在稳增长相关的政策上，整体基调是偏宽松，未来也将根据稳增长的节奏灵活调整流动性总闸门；利率运行节奏，大概率仍遵循货币政策周期和机构行为周期的特征，因此我们仍会重点根据市场赔率状态决定利率波段策略、曲线定价策略。","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=714379","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec37e","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"三季度，债券市场自身的商业周期已经进入到剩余流动性驱动的行情，特点为宏观胜率已经处于历史较高区间，债券估值会从中性偏贵整体向极贵演进，此阶段机构高仓位运行，高波动高换手，缺少趋势性机会，交易性机会集中在情绪和技术周期范畴。我们在这个阶段，选择剩余流动性驱动周期的合适策略，以较高的仓位和中性偏高的久期来应对。以中性偏高组合票息来保持组合净值的固定收益，不输时间；同时积极调整组合流动性分布，以较为安全的组合流动性状况来应对较低的交易赔率，在估值、仓位极致区域抛出交易性仓位，以防范经济周期的均值回复，不输空间。展望四季度，我们认为宏观的变数比较大，但时间上不确定，货币、财政政策对金融市场的影响将更为直接。我们倾向认为国内货币政策将更多关注宏观经济的“量”，因此以政策利率为核心的公开市场操作将尽可能满足金融机构流动性需求，债券市场的估值-carry交易还将有效，但应该警惕未来某个时间的一个较大的风险：通胀从上游传导到下游的过程，一旦形成全面通胀预期，宏观状态可能进入到“滞涨”的状态，在这个状态下，我们将会对债券部分的组合进一步收缩久期并提高组合流动性。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.392Z","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2021年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=655415","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aece7d7fea5b3eb04ec37d","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000011408,"sao":"今年过去的时间里，我国无风险利率出现了下行的趋势，要理解今年债券市场行情，重点需要理解央行的行为和商业银行行为。在宏观经济的周期，上半年经济的需求是在阶段性减少的，但并没有出现需求的断崖式下行，这在胜率层面虽然增加了部分做多债券的基础逻辑，但不是今年债券市场的主线；货币政策周期，我们看到央行态度上半年良好，超出市场和我们的预期，事后归因来看，我国核心CPI绝对水平不高是央行不会收紧的一部分原因，而7月超预期的降准，我们理解与解决宏观杠杆率的问题是有很大关系的；债券市场对宏观经济信息反映已经不敏感，更多表达的是机构行为周期的逻辑，我们站在二季度初判断货币政策处于态度阶段性良好状态，市场上行调整的幅度不会很大，本质上市场状态已经给足了赔率，我们也看到银行出现了缺资产的状况，我们观察到价值型配置机构“急迫”地买入债券，本质上是因为银行表内、理财子、保险由于负债压力变小，资产端欠配“高息标准化资产”，因此我们看到2年信用债、3年以内利率最为受益，而10年利率方向交易者相对更谨慎地交易。","declarationDate":"2021-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:43:25.389Z","mo":"我们认为上半年利率趋势交易的赔率较高，胜率略微提升，因此用偏高的仓位参与了利率债波段，而信用债配置方面，以高等级信用债配置为主，我们保持着中性仓位，将组合久期提升到中性，享受到一些骑乘和carry收益，但是我们对于目前债券市场较贵的估值状态、拥挤的市场结构保持谨慎态度，未来将会择机调仓，力求在市场赔率状态适中或偏高的位置继续战术性做多债券。","fund":{"_id":3000000011408,"__csrcFundId":8896,"stockCode":"011408","shortName":"天弘益新A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":11408,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2025-01-01T23:59:28.348Z","status":"normal","name":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"inceptionDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘益新","setUpDate":"2021-03-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":186723920.31,"setUpShares":186723920.31,"pinyin":"thyxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019595","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2504242650,"name":"袁东"},{"stockCode":"db20545372","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":825232500,"name":"胡彧"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘益新混合型证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=634467","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}