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　　2025年全球AI技术相关投资高速增长，关于是否存在泡沫的讨论也比较多，AI技术的确在欧美等发达国家快速的实现了产品化和商业化。但欧美市场的生态和国内有极大差异，海外成立的商业模式在国内未必成立。中国的大模型企业和海外企业同台竞技，会对海外现阶段已经成立的商业模式形成怎样的影响也未有定论，我们继续保持观察。 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　　本基金在本基金A类份额在上半年上涨5.32%，微幅跑赢基准。持仓中运营商、互联网和建材公司为组合贡献了较好的收益；组合中轻工、食品分别因景气下行引发投资者对公司盈利承压的担忧表现相对较弱。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.620Z","mo":"展望下半年，我们仍然坚持寻找既有安全边际又能为小股东带来长期稳定回报的公司。从产业中观层面看，很多充分市场化竞争的行业供求关系在现阶段基本达到一个弱平衡，行业内竞争力足够强的企业在产品价格较为低迷的前提下仍然有能力获取比较稳定的现金流。与此同时，行业整体的资本开支也都显著放缓，未来几年供求关系有望逐步改善。此外我们也会注意到，产业发展规律不是线性的外推，有很多新的趋势和变化，我们需要谨慎评估这些变化对企业是否能够实现长期回报带来的挑战。","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF)2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1346453","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933c5","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"本季度基金持仓集中在通信、互联网、建材、医药、食品等板块。AI技术的快速迭代带动了部分互联网相关公司表现较好，红利类公司在本季度表现相对较弱。但是从中长期看，我们认为组合里的红利型公司仍然是稀缺的优质资产，其经营质量最为扎实、最具备产生可持续的自由现金流的能力。新的关税政策给大部分企业经营带来较大的不确定性，我们会保持关注并及时评估潜在风险对企业价值的影响。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.618Z","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF)2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1276076","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933c4","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"在年末完成对组合持仓的调整，具体持仓基于自下而上选股。从行业维度看持仓个股集中在通信、互联网、建材、医药、农业等板块。　　　　在过去一年日常投研工作的日积月累中，随着对产业和企业研究的深入，更深切的意识到企业经营和投资两个层面面临的挑战都在加大，所以在投资标的的选择上更加谨慎，努力寻找看的懂且具备可持续发展能力的企业。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.615Z","mo":"展望2025年，AI技术的加速发展影响的不仅仅是科技行业，传统的各行各业也都行动起来，积极拥抱这项有“基础设施”属性的新技术。我们会密切关注它对各个产业的影响，寻找可以借此强化自身竞争力的企业。","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF)2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1257332","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933c3","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"回顾本轮行情的历史走势，可以看到上证走势分为3段：　　（1）2635-3174是第一段上涨，领涨板块是AI算力、有色和出海链，红利股滞涨；　　（2）3174-2689是第二段回撤但指数没有创新低，领涨板块是防守的大盘红利股，银行、运营商、电力等，果链也表现很好，领跌的是跟经济相关的地产链、白酒还有资源品等；　　（3）2689至今是第三段由于政策转向，以互联网金融、科创板和创业板为代表的高弹性板块领涨，跟经济相关的地产链和白酒、资源品等表现也不错，红利股滞涨，目前我们还在这一段走势中。　　　　第三段走势是A股仅6个交易日大涨近1000点，成交额站上3.48万亿。回顾历史可能2008年底的经济刺激跟当下有一定的可比性，2008/4/24降低印花税，6个月后指数见底，本轮是2023/8/28调低印花税，指数也恰好在6个月后见底。此外货币政策、财政政策、资本市场政策、产业政策陆续出台，我们正处于类似的阶段。　　　　对当下的市场环境，有两种应对方式：　　（1）关注当下的货币政策、财政政策、资本市场政策和产业政策，按照政策的出台去估算当下的风险收益比；　　（2）相信会通过极大力度的刺激让整个经济体摆脱“债务-通缩循环”。　　　　如果是情景1那么跟经济相关的品种弹性不会特别大，流动性相对充分的情况下，一些有长期逻辑有想象力的板块可能占优；如果是情景2那么跟经济相关的品种弹性和确定性也会比较大，但是有长逻辑有想象力的板块可能具备更大的弹性。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.612Z","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode"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2 个主线比较亮眼，一个是红利板块，一个是AI相关的光模块和果链。降低预期收益率看，无论是运营商、核电、银行等板块拉长看确实可以提供合理的收益率。AI相关的光模块继续表现亮眼，是因为国内能供应进去的也就只有这个方向最相关。果链是预期端测AI能提升用户体验，加速换机周期的逻辑，还有就是毕竟果链只有 20% 的销售来自于中国，对内需的暴露很低。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.609Z","mo":"展望后市，我们认为市场依然被上述3个大趋势主导，短期由于指数已经调整下来，我们对单季度适度乐观，但长期依然是保持耐心和攻守反击的策略。","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF)2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1150174","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933c1","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"一季度组合表现的思考：　　第一个层面是关于市场的主线。去年底超配了军工和医疗板块，基于军工和医疗可能困境反转，很不幸到目前位置冲击的影响还在，军工和医疗也是今年表现最差的几个板块之一。其次是对于AI算力的判断，由于A股市场高度线性外推，大幅上涨后大概率都是低于预期的，基于历史经验把算力都卖掉了，但一季度光模块是表现最好的科技方向。截至一季度末，表现最好的是哑铃策略的两头，一个是AI算力，一个是资源品，而去年底对这两块的配置都不高。　　第二个层面是快速反应方面，面临市场变化关键是如何做到快速调整。　　第三个层面是对于新产业和传统产业的认知。过去长期觉得整个硬科技和医药等板块具备长期空间，但决定盈利能力的根本还是供需关系，由于整个社会的资源都被导向这些新兴成长行业，导致这些行业内卷严重，反而不赚钱，最惨的是类似于模拟芯片类的行业性亏损还没有办法退出。反而是很多看起来很传统的产业，由于供应不足，需求受益于其他国家，反而出现了机会，后续组合也进行了配置。　　最后就是必须有一定程度的侧重。没有增量资金的情况下，均衡投资的时候组合内各个板块内部对冲，均衡看起来安全实际是危险的，必须有一定程度的侧重。","declarationDate":"2024-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.607Z","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF)2024年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1068521","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933c0","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"大趋势决定了宏观经济和市场走向，从中长期看，主导市场的依然是3个主导趋势：　　1、“人口-地产-财政-基建-投资”大循环可能逆转。市场对大循环结束定价较早，但对它的负面冲击定价不够充分。当卖地收入和地产相关税费下滑之后，仅靠一般预算收入第一本帐入不敷出，必然导致紧缩效应，军工（占中央财政本级支出40%）、医疗（医保买单）、环保等吃财政饭的行业面临较大压力。房价缩水15-20%后，居民财富缩水，中产阶级还面临降薪裁员等压力，这个也是消费降级的主因。　　　　2、中美超限竞争在贸易、科技、产业、舆论、外交、金融、军事等方方面面展开。事实上2018年贸易战以来，已经能够感觉到脱钩断链在自我实现，比如金融投资、人员往来、进出口等等，科技产业正在自发形成一个世界两套体系（信创/华为体系pk美国体系），中国向东南亚、墨西哥产业转移也自然的配合美国脱钩。特朗普在共和党初选中抛出将对中国商品课关税60%，要逐步从各领域摆脱对中国的依赖，特朗普2.0对我们可能依然是一杯毒酒。　　　　3、新一轮科技革命（人工智能AI、超导、机器人等等），似乎经过移动互联网之后多年的沉寂，科技大突破有可能在各个方向上展开，群星闪烁。但这一轮科技革命是美国不卖先进GPU给我们，也不从国内采购（只有光模块还在供应），似乎只能靠科技自立自强。　　　　　　1和2是主要负面因素，3是主要正面因素，正是这些合力决定了大趋势和市场的走向。　　　　从市场表现看，两个策略表现比较亮眼，一个是低估值红利股，一个是新兴产业尤其是AI。市场在面对上一段1和2这两个主要矛盾时主动降低了预期收益率，运营商和石化等超大盘蓝筹股表现亮眼，乃至经济下行压力下有较大压力的大型银行也表现很好。新产业方面，AI是最亮眼的主线，围绕上游算力和下游应用（办公、教育、金融、游戏、军工等），市场快速演绎了一遍移动互联网的演进逻辑。短期是预期远远的走在了产业进展前面，所以2季度后一直处于调整中，但看海外AI的大趋势依然没有被证伪，目前需要一些爆款应用来打破僵局。　　　　从本组合的投资来看，AI方向上有布局，但力度远远不够，其他方向比如创新药、新能源和军工的少数仓位构成拖累。成长股β更关键，需要在行情早期采取跟随策略，在逻辑演绎到极致的时候果断卖出，对人的考验极大。其次就是在组合管理上缺乏主动追击，震荡期拉锯战事实上双方差距不大，主要是确认了趋势之后的追击才能迅速扩大战果。集中优势兵力和果断追击是我在过去一段时间的主要反思。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.604Z","mo":"展望未来，我们认为上文分析的1-3这几个中长期的主要矛盾不变，1的问题在2024年大概率要触底了，展望2025年不会继续下行，这是一个较大的利好。2的问题如果特朗普在11月胜选，那2025年中美关系将迎接新的风高浪急和惊涛骇浪。3的问题是我们必须要在新型举国体制下证明自己能够引领新科技革命的能力，实现科技自立自强，在中央经济工作会议通稿中也把科技创新任务摆在首位。","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"n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。  疫情已经持续了3年时间，最早影响现金流量表和利润表，现在也至少冲击到很多家庭和企业的资产负债表了，对消费需求的冲击可想而知。感觉突破口会是保护率更好的疫苗和低成本的特效药。  俄乌冲突是具有历史意义的事件。有2点结论是比较明确的：1、“批判的武器不能代替武器的批判”，冲突惨烈的画面通过互联网广为传播之后，相信各国民意都会支持加大军备支出，确保国家安全；2、某种程度的去全球化和阵营撕裂难以避免，一季度表现最差的几个板块都是高度依赖全球化的。   悲观者交易的逻辑尽管难以短期证伪，但也要看到我们的长期竞争优势是极其明显的，时间确实在我们这一边。中国可以大规模低成本高品质的生产几乎所有产品，这个就是我们最大的优势。如果把全世界的企业抽象成三类：a、欧美代表的技术领先企业；b、中国企业；c、发展中国家的其他企业。对c而言，由于国内没有完整的供应链配套往往很难发展，基本停留在简单加工类业务。对b而言，正从中低端向中高端市场进军通过国产替代和出口抢市场的方式，快速抢走a的份额，这在医疗设备、工程机械、光伏、电池、继电器等几乎所有行业都可以看到，后面汽车、半导体估计也会看到。对a而言，只有退守超高端市场，如此一来它的收入就会萎缩，就无法支持大规模研发来保持技术领先，最后甚至一部分企业被b收购了。  落实到组合上，一季度主要是努力规避地缘政治冲突、疫情和地产三重压力的冲击，低仓位运作，结构上也做了一些调整。缺陷是部分品种止损不够坚决，后面会努力改正。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.585Z","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF)2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=729179","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933b8","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"今年值得检讨的东西很多，我反思下来主要有3条：  1、永远做一个优化器，迅速接受变化，找到最优解。  2、有形之手的力量比想象中的强有力太多，过去乃至将来都是最主导的力量。  3、抓主要矛盾抓大放小。  具体到三个板块：  （1）、传统大宗商品类：碳冲锋 和一刀切 导致上游价格跳涨，以动力煤为典型，价格从500-600元/吨跳升到接近2000元/吨，按照40亿吨煤耗其中1/2是长协，毛估要从下游拿走3万亿利润。我当时 分析此类做法在后期会得到修正，但实际情况是，在该现象发展至无法收拾的地步下，中央经济工作会议才开始明确纠偏。最优解就是在面对此类错误时，不应将自己的立场和先入为主的偏见带入而阻碍自己的操作。    （2）、消费品板块：今年整体上是重灾区，小孩的教培/生长激素/游戏、女性的医美、男性的白酒和老人的医药等都是长期很好的方向，但表现都不理想，最优解就是及时躲避政策风险，当政策调整的时候整个行业生态都会改变。    （3）、科技板块：以半导体产业链和新能源车产业链为例，既有行业本身的发展规律，也离不开有形之手的影响。半导体本来就应该全球分工，最大化规模经济，但受到中美贸易摩擦的影响。电动车从内燃机转为“芯片+算法” 为根基，由于摩尔定律和算法的迭代，比燃油车只会越来越有竞争力。应该大幅超配这个板块，但是我们买入力度不够，没有抓大放小，没有集中优势兵力。真正的机会其实并不多，近1-2年由于这样一系列的原因，看似安全的分散持仓，实质是更危险的。    以上是我的反思，过去我也一直不断的反思，但我发现反思的东西真正把它做好和执行好还有很长的路。","declarationDate":"2022-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.582Z","mo":"操作上主要是集中持仓，把原来的25-30个品种先收缩到20个以内，然后方向上也进一步收缩到3个方向以内。研究上主要是对明年的行业做一些评估，然后力争在潜在机会较大的领域集中持仓。","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF)2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=708087","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933b7","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"三季度行情上游极热，下游冰冷。主要矛盾是缺煤，粗算煤炭总消耗40亿吨，价格中枢抬高了接近800-1000元（不考虑长协），光这样一个产品下游就向上游转移了年化3.2-4万亿利润（如果年化的话，当然后面煤价可能会被调下来），很显然上游暴利下游难熬。同样的，天然气和原油价格也一路上涨。以煤炭、钢铁、化工、有色、电力为代表的传统周期行业因为缺煤-缺电和能耗双控对供给侧形成极大冲击，很多并没有太高壁垒的高耗能高污染产品反而跳涨，本来需要遏制的产业反而迎来暴利。在中美欧全球能源革命的大背景下，传统能源企业既然看到了5-10年后需求趋势萎缩，肯定压缩资本开支，收缩杠杆，收获末日红利，而新能源短期又没有办法填补，这个切换窗口期矛盾会一直存在。煤油天然气价格高涨，也进一步提高了新能源的吸引力，必将强化新能源的趋势，今年以来新能源车全球渗透率大超预期就是证据之一。  消费品三季度比较惨淡，有三重利空，一个是政策压力，一个是疫情影响需求，一个是资金流出到上游。经过一个季度的调整，政策风险有些已经被证伪，继续向周期品流出的压力也大大减轻。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.579Z","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF)2021年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=657950","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933b6","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"市场表现：  上半年市场表现最好的几个主线：  消费板块：医药  科技板块：新能源&电动车、电子  周期板块：化工、有色、钢铁、煤炭  这其中表现最好的是周期板块，减碳背景下供应约束非常刚性，产品涨价对低毛利的行业盈利弹性特别大，到7月底为止，表现最好的依然是这些板块。这一块我投入的精力比较少，预期以后也不会投入更多的精力，因为在消费和科技板块也依然存在不少机会没有抓住，这个是我更值得检讨的地方。经过过去近7年的投资，我认为想什么机会都抓住，最后只能什么都抓不住。    在二季度季报中就我们的投资思路和方法已经做了反思如下：  在过去和客户的沟通中，我把投资体系归纳“选股+下注+心态”三块，这也是一个德扑高手总结的打牌体系（德扑里第1条是输赢牌面）。这3条相互支撑，首先尽量选择好股票，这个是基础；选股的不足通过下注来弥补，遇到好机会下重注，搞错了坚决清仓绝不与恶龙缠斗；如果不幸前2条都没做好，那努力避免陷入恶性循环，被股市各种杠杆放大效应给击溃，迅速调整好心态，重新再战。    选股体系归纳为“三好=好企业、好行业和好价格”，实操过程中，一方面是案头研究通过标准化模板化不断迭代的公司研究文档，通过不断更新迭代来提高认知深度，另一方面是产业链验证网络，为有源头活水来通过调研来验证。“三好”中好企业和好行业大家经过研究应该没有大的分歧，主要的分歧就是“好价格”，这也是市面上所谓“投资理念”的区分所在，是相信低估值是好价格还是相信趋势，我们现在倾向于认为还是认为价格按趋势驱动，按照逻辑证伪方式来运动，估值只是一个概率指标。趋势投资可能更符合我现在的认知，也更符合我的性格，也是我现在和未来聚焦和努力的方向。    下注方面是过去一段主要的失误所在。一类失误是发掘了好股票没有重仓，机会是有限的，资金是无限的，必须集中火力；另一类失误搞错了犹豫不决没想明白机会成本才是最大的成本。这是现在和以后我必须努力修炼提高的方面，敢于重仓，敢于杀伐决断。    心态调节对投资也很关键，必须就不确定和市场分歧来下注，就必然没有常胜将军。而股市杠杆放大效应又特别显著，很容易陷入亏钱正反馈被棒杀，或者进入赚钱正反馈被捧杀，必须要随时调整心态，重新再战。    以上就是过去一个季度我们对投资体系三个方面的反思和检讨，未来将力争更加纯粹，做符合自己信仰的投资。","declarationDate":"2021-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.576Z","mo":"对未来我们依然维持“坚信大国复兴、重配幸运行业、抱紧龙头公司”的看法。  现在A+H有接近5000只股票，构筑组合仅20只左右，所以我们只要能找到这20个股票就可以了，哪怕再熊的市场都有0.4%的股票是有机会的，所以不会杞人忧天，会想尽办法抓机会。从我们的产业链调研来看，在新能源、生物医药、高端制造、新材料、半导体、军工等领域中国都不断都出现具备全球竞争力的好公司。从他们的地域分布来看，集中在长三角江浙沪和北京地区，集群效应明显。","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag"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31.1  本基金抓住了医药生物、光伏和新能源汽车、国防军工的机会，但错过了内循环主线的半导体和免税，主要原因是工作方法和思考深度不足，边缘品种分散了主线品种的研究精力。检讨过去1年乃至过去6年或者过去10年，我觉得犯的最大的错在于“不聚焦”，事实上机会是极其稀缺的，大部分都是扰动，要把所有的时间都聚焦到极少数能够创造长期机会的好赛道上好企业上。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.571Z","mo":"展望未来，我们将继续执行既定的投资策略：  1、坚信大国复兴：中国的体系化竞争力已经遥遥领先于其他国家，网络效应、基础设施、创新能力、互联网和AI能力等各个方面都让我们对整个国家的竞争力充满信心。疫情以来国外各种直升机撒钱，而国内一直坚持长期主义的宏观政策，就是底线思维、寻找国内外利益最大交集和坚持办好自己的事情。连续签下RCEP和中欧双边投资协定后，打破了美国孤立封锁的企图，以开放对孤立，经过特朗普4年压力测试，中国的竞争力已经充分证明。  2、重配幸运行业：只挖富矿，不挖贫矿，科技、消费和金融是诞生市值过1000亿美金巨头最多的幸运行业，做减法，应该把精力聚焦到这些幸运行业上。  3、抱紧先锋公司，只买王牌不买杂牌：具备行业定价权或者引导行业方向的先锋性公司是投资的重点，在信息化时代，头部企业实现了“一切业务数据化，一切数据业务化”，不仅战略决策上少犯错误，在精细化运营、消费者需求理解、供应链管理、人才管理等各个方面都更加科学合理，头部企业实现了降维打击。","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金(LOF) 2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=553228","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933b3","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"从申万二级行业指数来看，104个二级行业中前12个领涨的板块如下表所示，主要是3个主线：1）国防军工：航空装备、船舶制造和航天装备，军工面临几十年未有之大变局，从研发导向节制量产向战备导向快速放量转型；2）新能源：电源设备、汽车整车、玻璃制造（光伏玻璃）、电气自动化设备；3）社服：旅游、其他休闲服务和酒店。   行业  区间涨跌幅（%）    1  旅游综合  55.2   2  航空装备  42.8   3  其他交运设备  37.7   4  电源设备  34.6   5  汽车整车  28.9   6  其他建材  28.6   7  玻璃制造  24.7   8  其他休闲服务  24.3   9  酒店  24.2   10  船舶制造  23.4   11  航天装备  23.3   12  电气自动化设备  23.2   本基金在3季度抓住了国防军工等主线的机会，新能源略超配。   展望未来，我们将继续执行既定的投资策略：   1、坚信大国复兴：中国的体系化竞争力已经遥遥领先于其他国家，网络效应、基础设施、创新能力、互联网和AI能力等各个方面都让我们对整个国家的竞争力充满信心。疫情以来国外各种直升机撒钱 ，而国内一直坚持长期主义的宏观政策，就是底线思维、寻找国内外利益最大交集和坚持办好自己的事情。   2、重配幸运行业：挖富矿，不挖贫矿，科技、消费和金融是诞生市值过1000亿美金巨头最多的幸运行业，做减法，应该把精力聚焦到这些幸运行业上。   3、抱紧先锋公司，买王牌不买杂牌：具备行业定价权或者引导行业方向的先锋性公司是投资的重点，在信息化时代，头部企业实现了“一切业务数据化，一切数据业务化”，不仅战略决策上少犯错误，在精细化运营、消费者需求理解、供应链管理、人才管理等各个方面都更加科学合理，头部企业实现了降维打击。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.568Z","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=490742","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aed8947fea5b3eb05933b2","stockId":3000000160918,"sao":"从申万二级行业指数来看，104个二级行业中前10个领涨的板块如下表所示，主要是五个主线：1）医药生物:器械、生物制品、服务和化药，部分受益于疫情，部分本身就是优质赛道；2）内循环：半导体自主可控，免税带动消费回流；3）互联网传媒主要是游戏教育等；4）光伏和新能源汽车；5）动保和饲料。   行业名称  上半年涨幅   1  医疗器械Ⅱ  86.3%   2  生物制品Ⅱ  66.3%   3  旅游综合Ⅱ  53.1%   4  半导体  47.4%   5  动物保健Ⅱ  43.1%   6  医疗服务Ⅱ  40.2%   7  饲料Ⅱ  37.7%   8  化学制药  32.9%   9  互联网传媒  32.5%   10  电源设备  30.3%   本基金在上半年抓住了医药生物、光伏和新能源汽车、游戏等主线的机会，但错过了内循环主线的半导体和免税。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T14:26:28.565Z","mo":"展望未来，我们将继续执行既定的投资策略：   1、坚信大国复兴：中国的体系化竞争力已经遥遥领先于其他国家，网络效应、基础设施、创新能力、互联网和AI能力等各个方面都让我们对整个国家的竞争力充满信心。疫情以来国外各种直升机撒钱，而国内一直坚持长期主义的宏观政策，就是底线思维、寻找国内外利益最大交集和坚持办好自己的事情。市场也比较忧虑中美关系的问题，我们认为高手对决最关键的是自己不犯错误，等着对手犯错误给予致命一击，持久战就是以拖待变等待机会的占优策略。   2、重配幸运行业：只挖富矿，不挖贫矿，科技、消费和金融是诞生市值过1000亿美金巨头最多的幸运行业，做减法，应该把精力聚焦到这些幸运行业上。   3、抱紧先锋公司，只买王牌不买杂牌：具备行业定价权或者引导行业方向的先锋性公司是投资的重点，在信息化时代，头部企业实现了“一切业务数据化，一切数据业务化”，不仅战略决策上少犯错误，在精细化运营、消费者需求理解、供应链管理、人才管理等各个方面都更加科学合理，头部企业实现了降维打击。","fund":{"_id":3000000160918,"stockCode":"160918","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":42,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"sz","fundType":"lof_etf","ipoDate":"2014-04-09T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":null,"market":"a","tickerId":160918,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）","shortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)(160918)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3604,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-05-01T06:36:24.662Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2014-04-10T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050090000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"大成中小盘混合(LOF)","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"dczxphhxzqtzjj(lof)","lofFundFlag":1,"managers":[{"stockCode":"8801411329","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":80325150030,"name":"侯春燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"大成中小盘混合型证券投资基金（LOF）中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=453758","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}