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微观层面，我们观察到大多数消费品公司，站在年初时点对全年展望相对谨慎，对应上半年广告投放、新品推广节奏也偏保守，更愿意以半年度为时间窗口观察，年中决策是否追加预算。我们对下半年消费旺季抱有较强期待，下一个观察时点是五一小长假对线下场景的修复，以及618大促对线上消费信心的提振。春暖花开，四季轮回，相信消费的春天已经悄悄走近。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.526Z","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=884764","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeccfe7fea5b3eb04d1ff4","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009778,"sao":"2022年是外部环境非同寻常的一年，消费场景被影响，进而导致消费力下行。从选股角度出发，我们能看到诸如精制露营、两轮电动车等零星几个行业景气度尚可，我们长期看好的消费医疗、新兴家电等消费升级品类发展受阻。我们自始至终都坚信，这些外部的困难只是暂时性的，消费升级依旧是社会发展进步的主旋律，所幸一切在年末迎来转机，缺失已久的消费场景逐渐回归，企业经营终于重新回到正轨。过去这一年是对我们投资框架的重大考验，但拉长周期看或许只是一段小插曲，我们相信自下而上精选个股的策略，依旧能为投资者创造持续稳定的复合收益。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.523Z","mo":"我们看好出行链相关的复苏，积压许久的商务出行、探亲访友、休闲旅游需求爆发，直接相关的航空、酒店、餐饮、旅游将持续进入复苏通道，进一步带动白酒、餐饮供应链、会展、广告等行业景气度上行。在外部环境预期稳定后，消费领域的成长赛道不会缺席，我们依旧看好适应新渠道、研究刻画新的消费者需求，以耳目一新的产品及打法突破市场的消费成长类标的。","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=871667","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeccfe7fea5b3eb04d1ff3","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009778,"sao":"消费行业呈现波动，6月一波信心快速修复，7月走平，8-9月消费边际走弱，消费信心不足。  今年消费板块的中报也很直观体现出基本面惨淡。但在消费整体贝塔向下的情况中，我们依然看到几家龙头公司的亮眼中报，包括体育服饰、速冻、啤酒、家电冰洗等，体现出企业经营超强阿尔法，虽然为数不多但确是消费热潮退去后真正的金子，是投资者可以长期伴随成长的标的。经过8月中报披露以及业绩会充分沟通，大部分公司盈利预测完成下修，消费板块从21年初开始调整至今，站在目前时点业绩和估值风险已充分释放。  我们最近也在思考，能否构建出有效的逆周期组合，事实上是非常困难的。但我们有足够耐心时，我们依然坚定地与在消费升级中寻找商机的企业站在一起。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.521Z","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=810014","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeccfe7fea5b3eb04d1ff2","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009778,"sao":"整个上半年市场经历了跌宕起伏的外部环境波折，1-2月国内消费从低谷慢慢抬升，海外疫情管控逐步放开，国内也朝着走出疫情阴影的方向发展。3月出现多起黑天鹅事件，包括俄乌战争、中美对抗升级，外部环境急转直下，消费复苏的节奏就此打断，经历了自新冠疫情以来的二次调整。针对以上变化，我们在结构上增加了部分必选仓位。同时，我们也在疫情受损最为严重的出行服务业做一些布局，以杠铃策略来应对不可预知的外部环境变化。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.518Z","mo":"6月以来上海疫情基本得到控制，从上海全面解封，到外省对上海隔离政策调整，再到第九版新冠防控方案对常态化防控的全国统一标准，自上而下推动整个经济活动恢复力度是明显超预期的。结合近期整体流动性宽松，汽车等相关消费政策出台，市场风险偏好回升，成长板块先于消费反弹。  观察近期航空酒店等高频数据，经历一波快速修复后进入瓶颈期，相较于2020下半年消费全面修复，今年面临着部分行业收入下行，短期消费者信心不足等问题。我们认为下半年消费板块的机会来自于结构性复苏，我们相对看好疫情缓和后高端购买力的回补，以及下线城市的消费韧性，处于两者中间的大众价格带，消费信心、消费升级的动力还需要时间修复。  消费从不缺乏结构性机会，只是需要善于发现的眼睛。比如在疫情下传统旅游行业遭遇重挫，但被年轻人喜爱的露营行业却欣欣向荣。我们对消费行业永远不悲观，始终保持对消费趋势的观察和敏感度，积极寻找其中的阿尔法机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=786592","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeccfe7fea5b3eb04d1ff1","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009778,"sao":"过去两个月，出现一系列突破传统分析框架的重大变化：1）俄乌战争打响，推高国际能源、大宗、农产品价格，制造业面临成本影响，2）中美对抗在金融、医药领域进一步升级，港股、中概遭遇外资系统性撤离，3）疫情对东部沿海城市经济影响还在持续扩散中。对于消费行业的展望，不得不考虑疫情走向来做判断。  受到疫情影响较大的无疑是服务业、可选消费行业，奥密克戎极高的传染性、隐匿的传播路径，使得疫情地区物流受阻，必选消费品也因为运输瓶颈受到抑制，可以预见从3月开始的消费数据或将走弱。基于目前情况，我们下降了部分经济相关度高的可选消费持仓。  我们会关注有物流保供能力且成本端可控的必需消费品，需求刚性的医疗服务板块，对于可选及服务行业，我们动态评估相关医疗条件是否趋于成熟，再做相机抉择。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.515Z","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=728607","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeccfe7fea5b3eb04d1ff0","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009778,"sao":"2021年消费赛道上半年估值高位震荡，消费板块进入了较长时间的调整通道。同时市场风格层面，龙头白马估值溢价被打破，市场在大盘蓝筹与中小市值的偏好上再均衡。我们依旧看好消费作为长坡厚雪的长期优质赛道，在经历逆风调整期是我们耐心选股的好时机。在报告期内，我们重点配置了两个细分领域：其一是实物消费向服务性支出的消费升级，尤其重点看好医疗消费相关领域，包括成人疫苗、眼科、牙科等，其二是人口结构变化带来的新兴中产消费趋势，包括从零到一的新兴品类。选股上我们遵循自下而上精选个股，捕捉基本面能够与消费大趋势形成共振的优质标的。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.512Z","mo":"我们认为2022年是外部宏观环境不确定性的一年，疫情至今经历了2年流动性充裕的市场环境，无论是高壁垒白马或高成长赛道，估值都位于合理偏高位置，预计需要一定的时间来消化估值。对应到消费板块，我们认为市场信心不足主要来自两方面，一是疫情防控对正常经济活动的影响，二是疫情持续反复对支付能力以及消费信心的损伤。但同时我们也看到一些边际向好的因素，新冠变异毒株向着毒力下降的方向演进，国内首个新冠小分子药物获批以及第三针疫苗接种启动。我们认为与此相关的出行服务链公司或将是全年较为明确的投资线索，同时一些长期增长稳健、绝对估值偏低的细分子版块，全年维度也可能有超额收益。","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=714604","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeccfe7fea5b3eb04d1fef","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009778,"sao":"整个消费板块自年中出现明显调整，先后经历了杀估值、担忧抑制高端消费的政策出台、最近的消费数据疲软，各方利空因素让市场对消费板块整体悲观。我们认为市场悲观情绪蔓延之时，正是从容布局消费带的窗口期。8月社零数据疲软，尤其是边际上表征消费信心的餐饮、可选消费的家电、消费电子等，其中一定有短期台风和疫情的一次性影响，但同时也有中长期因素，比如低收入人群的实质性收入下降，中产在面临方方面面政策不确定性时主动消费紧缩，消费能力和消费信心均受到一定打击。我们认为经过1-2个季度的调整消费升级趋势将明显恢复，对消费中长期依旧保持信心。我们认为8月消费数据或是短期低点，9月疫情影响减弱、中秋错位拉长旺季，同比数据会有修补。我们核心看好的两个方向，一是长坡厚雪的医疗服务，二是新兴中产对新的生活方式的追求，也是在消费景气度不佳时我们依然坚定持有的赛道。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.509Z","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2021年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=656766","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeccfe7fea5b3eb04d1fee","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009778,"sao":"整个上半年消费板块呈现明显的震荡市特征，市场经历了一季度的大幅调整，在较为宽松的流动性下二季度逐步企稳。年初站在估值高位的核心资产均有所反弹，但走势亦出现分化：景气度维持高位的CXO、医疗服务、医美、扫地机器人等板块创出历史新高，市场对成长因子明显偏好加强。在消费升级的长周期上，我们坚定看好实物消费向服务消费逐步转移，而医疗服务是这其中明确空间大、竞争有壁垒的长坡厚雪赛道，我们择机在这一优秀赛道研究和配置。同时我们观察到，持续3年的白马风格偏好出现了回摆，二季度开始不少中小市值成长股被市场所关注，我们在市值因子上考虑均衡配置。","declarationDate":"2021-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.507Z","mo":"目前时点市场对整体消费有几点关注：1）消费力水平，从上半年的社零数据看，可选品的化妆品、服装、珠宝呈现较高景气度，日用品等必选消费维持稳健增速，地产链相关消费有回暖迹象。我们认为中国当前的消费体量已经足够大而稳定，无需过度关注总量数据波动，可以着眼于结构性变化。我们对中国消费市场的韧性充满信心。2）中报业绩，由于去年疫情的管控措施打乱了生活节奏，造成必需消费品第二季度高基数、可选消费第三季度高基数，市场在这两个季度的确很难看到亮眼的消费数据，但若用对比2019年 ，不少优秀公司还是有20%-30%复合增速，处于良好的经营状态，表观数据不好看并不等于实际状况不好。3）估值，站在年初时点，消费整体估值水位较高，透支的业绩增长或者以时间消化估值、或者直接调整，近期市场表现是选择了后者。我们认为当前时点大部分必选消费品或已经调整到了估值较低位，可选消费也在估值中枢偏下，等待8月中报确认业绩与估值的匹配度，消费板块的性价比会进一步得到确认，未来1个季度我们认为消费板块可能将迎来较好的配置窗口期。","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=634394","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aeccfe7fea5b3eb04d1fed","stockId":3000000009778,"sao":"当前经济和企业的基本面都相当好。在春节前后，我们做了很多的电话访问和草根调研，不管是经销商还是企业本身，都反映基本面非常好。我内心也比较认同这种基本面趋势，把这次回调看为一次调整，而非趋势。当前，我们对市场较为乐观，特别是核心资产。经过回调，已经把估值泡沫去掉了绝大部分，从中长期看，平心而论，好公司是会比一般公司略贵一些的。从当前到年底，我们对取得正收益的信心比较强，我们会继续践行我们的投资策略。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:37:02.504Z","fund":{"_id":3000000009778,"__csrcFundId":8237,"stockCode":"009778","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9778,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:58:50.895Z","status":"normal","name":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"长信消费升级混合(009778)","followedNum":6,"fundCollectionId":4000050260000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"长信消费升级混合","setUpDate":"2020-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":717358484.8,"setUpShares":717358484.8,"pinyin":"cxxfsjhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20705904","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1212199870,"name":"刘亮"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"长信消费升级混合型证券投资基金2021年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=570133","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}