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宏观经济方面，2021年四季度召开的中央经济工作会议明确了2022年的经济工作方针：稳字当头，稳中求进。信贷和社融数据将逐步兑现宽货币的政策导向，并逐步传导到信用利差的收窄，从宽货币走向宽信用，支撑宏观经济复苏。2022年上半年，基建、房地产和制造业投资仍是稳增长政策的重要抓手。 在科技创新领域，2021年第四季度，全球科技创新呈现加速迹象，我们看到越来越多的智能化汽车和元宇宙应用发布并将于22年走向量产。因此，我们认为2022-23年是全球科技创新大年，技术进步将推动新型硬件和算力（含科技基础设施）快速普及，这将给整条供应链带来新一轮投资机会。基于此我们对组合做出如下调整： 坚守科技创新产业，增配景气上行的消费电子零部件产业链和数通产业链；减仓芯片设计和半导体设备板块。 新能源板块持仓进一步向资源获取能力强的龙头集中。 继续持有竞争格局开始改善的非制造业子行业。 最后，不同于2021年高度结构分化的投资局面，我们预计2022年A股市场将延续2021年4季度的“再均衡”风格。传统经济方面，房地产信用违约风险陆续兑现，国内金融系统的信用风险处置将告一段落，房地产驱动的相关产业链条也有望得到修复。新经济方面，科技创新和碳中和已成为经济转型升级的重要支柱，部分子行业估值虽然偏高，但基本面趋势和成长空间确定，投资周期上需要以时间换空间。","fund":{"_id":3000000009217,"__csrcFundId":7393,"stockCode":"009217","name":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9217,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:41:24.197Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合(009217)","followedNum":2,"fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合","setUpDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":296947201.91,"setUpShares":296947201.91,"pinyin":"bsrfhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801621939","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":323195180,"name":"陈伟"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时荣丰回报三年封闭运作灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=709580","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc767fea5b3eb04c8463","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009217,"sao":"2021年第三季度，持续复苏的总需求与阶段性被抑制的供给形成错配，从而造成大量上游资源品、基础化工品价格的超预期上涨，最终给中游制业的经营带来短期扰动。我们深入剖析供给侧约束的成因，主要源于：1）碳中和背景下，“双控”方针对高耗能产业产能的强约束；2）煤炭供给偏紧+夏季西南区域降水偏弱，造成电力供应阶段性紧张，部分工业品生产节奏放缓。我们判断，上述供需矛盾仍将会在四季度延续，但由于各方都已经在三季度有了生产调节的应对经验，因此我们判断对中游制造业的影响将边际减弱，尤其是各行业中的领军企业。基于此我们对组合做出如下调整： 1） 增配未来五年最具确定性的成长方向：新能源车（锂电产业链）和半导体国产化。 2） 能源变革箭在弦上，新型能源和新型电力系统替代传统能源已经成为全球共识，未来渗透率有望显著提速，基于此我们高度重视光伏、风电、水电等清洁能源产业链的投资机会。 3） 适当增持竞争格局开始改善的非制造业子行业（如服务业），如：电商快递业。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:34:46.129Z","fund":{"_id":3000000009217,"__csrcFundId":7393,"stockCode":"009217","name":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9217,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:41:24.197Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合(009217)","followedNum":2,"fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合","setUpDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":296947201.91,"setUpShares":296947201.91,"pinyin":"bsrfhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801621939","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":323195180,"name":"陈伟"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时荣丰回报三年封闭运作灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=654299","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc767fea5b3eb04c8462","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000009217,"sao":"2021年上半年，市场跌宕起伏。万得全A上涨5.5%。沪深300指数上涨0.2%。市场最大特征是分化巨大。创成长指数大涨27.2%，而上证50下跌3.9%。申万高市盈率指数上涨19.2%，申万低市盈率指数则下跌3.9%，且这种极致的风格分化主要发生在第二季度。期间，在2月中下旬曾发生过一次风格切换，但维持时间很短。市场投资者情绪高涨，成交保持活跃。高景气度和高成长性的行业或板块受到热烈追逐。钢铁、化工、采掘等盈利状况较好的行业涨幅居前；医美、锂电、CXO、半导体、医疗服务等高成长赛道更是交易十分活跃，涨幅惊人。相对而言，盈利状况欠佳的家电、非银、地产等行业表现非常落后，尽管其估值已处于历史非常低的位置。期间，宏观经济的持续复苏、上市公司的优秀业绩增长、全球新冠疫情的反复、大宗商品价格的强势表现、国内外货币政策的持续宽松等都对股票市场产生了较大影响。上半年本基金净值表现非常落后，主要原因在于我们配置主要是在低估值的行业和板块上，比如地产、家电、建筑等；对于高估值的热点板块，我们参与很少，造成与市场的很大偏离。虽然期间我们超配的采掘和化工有表现良好，产生了一定的正向贡献；但跟成长股相比，逊色太多。我们低估了货币的持续宽松和市场风格的极致分化。过低的估值容忍度让我们错失了许多投资机会。期间我们重配的大盘价值股表现非常差。","declarationDate":"2021-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:34:46.126Z","mo":"展望下半年，我们判断市场仅存在结构性机会，系统性的机会不多。一是，从流动性来看，通胀的上行会逼迫货币政策更加稳健；特别是百年大庆过后，稳杠杆的重要性会上升，货币政策有适度收紧的必要。股票市场资金的宽松度会下降。此外，美元在持续走强，北上资金的净流入程度估计也不会向上半年那么大。资金面的变化会制约那些缺乏盈利支撑的高估值板块和个股的持续表现。况且，从估值程度来看，高成长赛道公司的估值水平都处在历史高位上，估值继续扩张难度非常大。从基本面上来看，三季度经济增速开始放缓的概率很高，虽然经济复苏会有一定的惯性。我们判断下半年价值股和周期股会有更好的表现，主要原因它们估值非常便宜，且基本面在持续改善，尽管长期成长性欠佳。相对而言，高成长赛道交易过于拥挤，过高的估值使其股价波动率上升，需要更加小心地精挑细选个股。投资上，我们会坚持价值投资原则，继续优化组合中价值股和周期股的个股配置；同时，我们也会扩宽视野，关注可能出现的优质中小市值成长股的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000009217,"__csrcFundId":7393,"stockCode":"009217","name":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9217,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:41:24.197Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合(009217)","followedNum":2,"fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合","setUpDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":296947201.91,"setUpShares":296947201.91,"pinyin":"bsrfhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801621939","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":323195180,"name":"陈伟"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时荣丰回报三年封闭运作灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=633434","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc767fea5b3eb04c8461","stockId":3000000009217,"sao":"2021年第一季度，市场先扬后抑，波动较大。整体市场是微跌的格局（万得全A -1.4%），上证红利指数表现突出（+7.4%），科创50指数（-8.2%）和创业板综指（-6.3%）相对落后。从市场风格来看，低市净率股和低价股表现明显强于高价股和高市净率股。行业层面，钢铁、公用事业、休闲服务、银行、轻工等涨幅居前，国防军工、非银金融、通信等表现相对落后。稀土、航空、碳中和等相关概念受到市场追捧，而机构抱团股经历了过山车行情。基金热销、新冠疫情、经济复苏、通胀上行、中美关系等多重因素都对市场行情造成了较大的影响。第一季度本基金净值相对表现尚可，但绝对收益一般。期间股票仓位变化不大，对净值影响较小。我们对市场的巨大波动预期不足。行业贡献最大的是采掘和银行，负贡献最大的是传媒和非银金融。从配置效果来看，低配电子、食品饮料和超配采掘有明显正贡献，但超配地产和低配银行则阶段性效果欠佳。展望第二季度，我们判断市场大概率维持震荡格局。随着疫苗的普及，疫情大概率对全球经济的影响会逐渐下降。美国推出大规模的经济救助计划会进一步推升全球经济需求，有利于中国的出口。我们对二季度的国内宏观经济和企业盈利保持乐观的判断。不过，随着通胀的上升，预计货币政策会保持偏紧的态势，实际利率会逐步抬升，对市场估值会形成一定的压制作用。市场行情的结构会发生变化，缺乏盈利支撑的高估值行业和个股难有机会。因此，在投资策略上，我们会坚持价值投资原则，以盈利为纲，主要在基本面良好的低估值行业板块中挖掘投资机会。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:34:46.124Z","fund":{"_id":3000000009217,"__csrcFundId":7393,"stockCode":"009217","name":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9217,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:41:24.197Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合(009217)","followedNum":2,"fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合","setUpDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":296947201.91,"setUpShares":296947201.91,"pinyin":"bsrfhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801621939","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":323195180,"name":"陈伟"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时荣丰回报三年封闭运作灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=572748","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc767fea5b3eb04c8460","stockId":3000000009217,"sao":"2020年A股市场无疑是个牛市。万得全A录得涨幅25.6%，沪深300指数上升27.2%。不过，市场结构化行情特征明显，创业板指数大涨65.0%，红利指数却下跌0.7%，可谓冰火两重天。从行业表现来看，结构分化特征也十分突出。以申万一级行业为例，休闲服务、电力设备和食品饮料等大幅领涨，其中，休闲服务涨幅接近100%；而房地产、通信、建筑装饰等表现则大幅落后，全年录得负收益。从个股表现来看，这种分化更加严重。剔除2020年新上市的公司，全部A股上市公司的涨幅中位数不到3%，超过7成的股票涨幅落后万得全A，超过50%的股票全年股价是下跌的；全年有7%的股票涨幅超过100%，但有8%的股票跌幅超过20%。成长与价值风格的分化也异常突出。国证价值指数涨幅仅4.9%，落后国证成长接近44个百分点；同样，300价值指数大幅落后300成长指数。由此可见，2020年是一次不折不扣的结构性牛市。我们认为，导致市场这种结构分化的原因，一是新冠疫情的全球爆发和反复，各国经济遭遇了不同程度的短暂停摆和结构性的变化；中国当然也不例外，尤其是在第一季度，尽管中国在控制疫情上相对而言最为成功。二是，为了应对疫情和经济的下滑，各国采取了极度宽松的货币政策。中国整体来说较为克制，但相较实体经济增速而言，社融和信贷投放规模仍十分可观，宏观流动性整体非常宽裕。三是，资本市场发生了投资者结构性的变化。在银行理财收益率的下降背景下，叠加权益类基金赚钱效应，权益类公募基金的发行出现了历史性的井喷式行情，新基金发行超过2万亿。不少散户转变为基民。与此同时，由于中国相对较好的经济基本面吸引外资持续流入，在2019年大幅流入的基础上2020年北上资金继续净流入，总额超过2000亿元。这助推了机构投资者偏好的股票的上涨。机构投资者的股市影响力得到提升。第四，政府政策的导向对市场结构也起到了重大的影响。比如，科创板的发展鼓励、海外上市公司的A股回归、注册制的渐次推行、房地产市场的持续打压等等。此外，中美关系的曲折反复、大宗商品的大幅波动、美国股市的短期暴跌等等也对国内市场造成了阶段性的影响。本组合成立时间不足一年，2020年期间净值表现一般。基于2季度后对中国经济的乐观预期和市场流动性充裕的判断，虽然我们保持了较高的股票仓位，但我们对于市场结构行情的演绎预期不足。更重要的是，受制于价值投资的思维，我们严重低估了成长股的估值扩张幅度和价值股的持续低迷时间。期间，我们主要超配较多的行业是房地产、采掘和非银金融，低配较多的行业是食品饮料、电子和医药生物。这显然与市场的偏好差距明显，因为食品饮料和房地产分别是市场最喜欢和最不喜欢的行业。我们明显严重低估了市场对于科技、医药和消费方向的追捧热度。以房地产为例，虽然估值处于历史最底部位置，且行业基本面超出市场预期，但受制于政策打压，股价表现全年垫底，我们期待的基本面好转驱动价值回归并没有出现。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:34:46.121Z","mo":"展望2021年，我们对市场判断并不悲观，但认为继续2020年牛市的可能性较小，大概率是震荡行情。一方面，由于全球疫苗的成功研制和接种，我们相信新冠肺炎疫情在全球范围内会逐步得到控制，经济基本面将会逐步恢复到正常轨道运行，全球经济增速会比较好。二是，企业盈利大概率也会较2020年度有明显改善，不仅因为基数低的原因，全球库存正在经历一轮向上的周期。三是，市场局部估值泡沫明显，但整体估值水平仍可接受。以沪深300指数为例，静态市净率仅处于上市以来的中位数水平；静态市盈率偏高的原因主要是2020年盈利受疫情的影响比较差。不利的因素主要在于市场流动性，随着经济的逐步复苏，货币政策边际收紧的趋势明显，利率面临上行压力，市场估值继续扩张的压力上升。我们认为，2021年盈利基本面将取代市场流动性成为股价核心驱动因素，流动性将围绕基本面波动。因此，在投资策略上，2021年我们将倾向于把握市场结构性的投资机会。我们将坚持一贯的价值投资风格，以个股绝对收益为导向，以给投资人创造稳健回报为目标。当前，市场成长股与价值股的风格分化已创历史极致，所谓“无成长没价值”；但我们仍然坚信“价值回归终有时”，随着基本面的回暖，成长股与价值股的表现未来势必将趋于收敛。具体方向上，对于市场追捧的科技、医药和消费大盘蓝筹股，我们保持谨慎的态度，主要是因为我们认为估值已经充分反映了其长期乐观的增长前景。相反，我们认为，以金融、地产、周期为代表的低估值板块将明显受益于企业盈利上行周期，其相对较高的股息率和较低的估值水平又提供了很好的安全边际，值得重点关注。此外，我们会加强自下而上的研究，希望挖掘一些估值不贵、基本面优秀的细分行业龙头股的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000009217,"__csrcFundId":7393,"stockCode":"009217","name":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9217,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:41:24.197Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合(009217)","followedNum":2,"fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合","setUpDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":296947201.91,"setUpShares":296947201.91,"pinyin":"bsrfhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801621939","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":323195180,"name":"陈伟"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时荣丰回报三年封闭运作灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=557423","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc767fea5b3eb04c845f","stockId":3000000009217,"sao":"2020年第三季度市场整体上涨。万得全A上涨8.4%，沪深300指数上涨10.2%。不过市场涨幅主要发生在7月份前半个月，后期市场以震荡调整为主。市场行情结构性特征明显。休闲服务、国防军工、电气设备等大幅跑赢市场指数；通信、计算机、商业贸易等则大幅跑输市场指数。军工和新能源主题股票受到市场追捧；科技和农业股则出现较大幅度调整。期间，国内经济的回暖、海外疫情的反复、中美及周边关系的紧张、货币政策及汇率的边际变化、国内基金的热销等都对市场造成了较大的影响。本基金第三季度上涨7.7%，前期表现出色，9月下旬表现欠佳。虽然基金仍处于建仓期，基于对市场行情乐观的判断，股票仓位提升较快，期间一直保持在较高水平；行业配置则主要集中在低估值的价值股和周期股上，市场热门的科技、消费和医药的配置比重较低。对于后市，我们仍持乐观态度。我们认为，市场整体估值水平并不高，尽管存在局部的估值泡沫。国内经济仍处在稳步复苏阶段，正进入补库存阶段，企业盈利增速将逐步抬升。虽然宏观流动性环境有微妙变化，但海外经济的疲弱导致的人民币汇率升值有利于外资的流入，叠加国内基金的热销，股市流动性仍会保持充裕的局面。不过市场行情的主要驱动力将由流动性转向基本面。需要注意的主要风险是，海外疫情二次爆发的力度以及美国大选可能出现的意想不到的结果。未来投资上我们将秉承价值投资和长期投资的原则，将主要方向放在价值低估、竞争力强的行业龙头上。目前阶段我们认为高股息蓝筹股和顺周期的行业应是重点关注对象。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:34:46.115Z","fund":{"_id":3000000009217,"__csrcFundId":7393,"stockCode":"009217","name":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":9217,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:41:24.197Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合(009217)","followedNum":2,"fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时荣丰回报灵活配置混合","setUpDate":"2020-05-06T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":296947201.91,"setUpShares":296947201.91,"pinyin":"bsrfhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801621939","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":323195180,"name":"陈伟"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时荣丰回报三年封闭运作灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=489622","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}