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agent等，其余的500亿美元来自广告等免费用户变现以及智能硬件等领域。我们认为端侧硬件是AI时代应用落地的必经之路，其意义类似于智能手机和IoT之于移动互联网，OpenAI已经与消费电子产业链的龙头企业探讨产品合作，预计端侧产品将于2026-2027年发布并落地。此外，Meta也在三季度发布了最新的AR智能眼镜，明年市场有望掀起百镜大战。从产业落地节奏看，当前端侧AI仍处于左侧阶段，但也提供了一个合适的观察、追踪和布局的机会。本产品后续将更聚焦于泛科技类消费，深耕端侧AI产业链的投资机会。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.600Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008840,"__csrcFundId":7707,"stockCode":"008840","name":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8840,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:49.220Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"德邦大消费混合A","followedNum":4,"fundCollectionId":4000050710000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"德邦大消费混合","setUpDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":654350390.81,"setUpShares":654350390.81,"pinyin":"dbdxfhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20869101","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260812221320,"name":"朱慧琳"},{"stockCode":"j101020492","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":102512251670,"name":"江杨磊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金2025年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1367469","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc0e7fea5b3eb04c0fec","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008840,"sao":"二季度以来，市场行情呈现出先跌后涨的走势。4月初受到特朗普“对等关税”行政令的影响市场巨幅调整，紧接其后政治局会议定调“新质生产力”扶持、超长期特别国债发行、“一行一局一会”落地一系列增量政策，市场悲观预期逐步修复，直至5月中旬中美双方发布联合声明，中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，市场震荡上行。分指数来看，上证综指上涨2.78%，沪深300指数上涨0.35%，深证成指下跌1.34%，创业板指上涨1.16%。分板块看，国防军工、通信和银行板块领涨，食品饮料、钢铁和家用电器板块跌幅靠前。二季度市场行情整体板块轮动加速，除去避险为主的高股息板块，创新药、新消费与科技板块先后轮动。展望三季度，随着开发成本显著降低和大模型能力的巨幅提升，AI应用在国内外迅速发展，叠加国内消费政策支持文娱医疗等场景，期待爆款出现对于行业的持续催化。对于新消费来说，本轮行情核心的方向是服务消费、性价比消费和情绪消费，交易的本质是由增量资金对于景气度高、业绩兑现度高的细分消费成长子版块的认知提升。当下宏观叙事未发生改变，短期会持续景气度行情的轮动，把握节奏是获取超额收益的关键。我们二季度的持仓结构没有全部聚焦在新消费的景气方向上，节奏和仓位的双重问题致使净值表现不及预期，三季度我们将仓位聚焦在供给创造需求的优质新消费公司，但从时间成本及行情波段视角看新消费方向需要等待下一个催化，力争为持有人创造超额收益。","declarationDate":"2025-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.593Z","mo":"虽然中间有关税扰动，但是今年以来权益市场表现强劲，连续突破关键点位。展望下半年，外部环境的冲击逐步减弱，全球多数权益资产回升到美国对等关税前的位置，关税问题对于权益市场的冲击逐步淡化。从结构来看，今年的主要行情与传统经济基本面关联度不高，主要是负债端变化下资金驱动的上涨行情。展望下半年，虽然A股企业盈利企稳回升仍需要内生催化，特别是供需关系和价格体系等持续改善，但是当下环境宏观因子定价逐步弱化，结构亮点显著突出。无论是历经DeepSeek时刻的人工智能、具身机器人等科技产业趋势，还是差异化供给下火爆全球的新IP的新消费，或是对外授权交易数量和金额暴增的本土创新药，不一例外的引导了社会预期的改善。新的产业趋势对于经济的影响逐步变大，传统周期动力正在磨底的过程中，新旧动能切换不断推进。在不断涌现的产业趋势下，政策重心不断优化产业结构，坚定稳增长的经济治理思路，积极提振消费与企业盈利状态，管理人对于下半年行情表现积极乐观。","fund":{"_id":3000000008840,"__csrcFundId":7707,"stockCode":"008840","name":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8840,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:49.220Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"德邦大消费混合A","followedNum":4,"fundCollectionId":4000050710000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"德邦大消费混合","setUpDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":654350390.81,"setUpShares":654350390.81,"pinyin":"dbdxfhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20869101","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260812221320,"name":"朱慧琳"},{"stockCode":"j101020492","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":102512251670,"name":"江杨磊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1346531","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc0e7fea5b3eb04c0feb","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008840,"sao":"进入2025年，市场开年震荡调整，直到2月两会政策预期升温及以Deepseek为核心的人工智能领域实现技术突破，中国科技资产价值得以重估，科技成长板块阶段性走强，3月中旬以后年报披露高峰期，叠加特朗普关税问题的影响，市场风险偏好下降，市场行情持续走弱，其中上证综指下跌0.48%，沪深300指数下跌1.20%，深证成指上涨0.86%，创业板指下跌3.79%。分板块看，有色金属、汽车和机械设备板块领涨，煤炭、商贸零售和石油石化板块跌幅靠前。从风格来看，成长明显跑赢，今年以来市场走势的涨幅贡献主要由成长板块带动，价值板块整体表现比较平淡。进入二季度，市场行情的定价将逐步往基本面回归。从4月来看，中美对抗与政策叙事变数较大，美国对等关税政策的影响将波及全球大类资产，全球大概率进入避险模式，叠加国内经济和上市公司业绩验证窗口期的到达，A股市场大概率持续震荡。虽然对等关税政策的演进和生效具有巨大的不确定性，但是我国对于维稳增长和维护资本市场的决心明显，大概率会出台对于加大财政支出、提振内需等政策来对冲出口的负面影响。当下，我们建议积极关注受益于政策催化的顺周期消费板块，优选周期底部往上、业绩确定性高的企业，中期维度上AI产业趋势和国产替代自主可控会持续进行。我们在这个季度对仓位配置进行了优化，提高了整体科技成长比重，特别是AI应用的方向。","declarationDate":"2025-04-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.590Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008840,"__csrcFundId":7707,"stockCode":"008840","name":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8840,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:49.220Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"德邦大消费混合A","followedNum":4,"fundCollectionId":4000050710000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"德邦大消费混合","setUpDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":654350390.81,"setUpShares":654350390.81,"pinyin":"dbdxfhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20869101","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260812221320,"name":"朱慧琳"},{"stockCode":"j101020492","stockType":"fun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月底研究经济工作的政治局会议，非同寻常提到经济方面工作，提到“切实增强做好经济工作的责任感和紧迫感”、“有效落实存量政策，加力推出增量政策”；随后发改委，财政部，住建部等部委陆续召开会议介绍相关部门逆周期政策的落地和推动情况。目前政策目标已发生转变，稳增长的权重上升，后续货币财政等提振措施将实质落地推进，前期过于悲观的定价得到修复，市场逐步回归到合理的区间。德邦大消费主要配置为估值合理的大消费类的优质龙头企业，未来随着经济的企稳和信心的恢复，企业价值有望逐步提升。","declarationDate":"2024-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.584Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008840,"__csrcFundId":7707,"stockCode":"008840","name":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8840,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:49.220Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"德邦大消费混合A","followedNum":4,"fundCollectionId":4000050710000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"德邦大消费混合","setUpDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":654350390.81,"setUpShares":654350390.81,"pinyin":"dbdxfhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20869101","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260812221320,"name":"朱慧琳"},{"stockCode":"j101020492","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":102512251670,"name":"江杨磊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1171192","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc0e7fea5b3eb04c0fe8","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008840,"sao":"今年以来市场呈现大幅波动的走势，同时内部分化较大，偏防御类的红利资产表现较好，上证50指数上涨3.0%，沪深300指数上涨0.9%，上证综指下跌0.3%，深成指下跌7.1%，创业板指下跌11%。分板块来看，银行，公用事业和家电板块领涨，上涨幅度超过8%；计算机，商业贸易和休闲服务板块跌幅靠前，下跌幅度超过20%。2024 年一季度实际GDP5.3%，经济较为韧性和平稳，但二季度经济增速放缓，二季度实际 GDP 同比 4.7%，二季度名义 GDP 同比为 4.0%，低于一季度的 4.2%，主要原因在于商品消费动能转弱、专项债等投资资金的落地不及预期，低迷的股价反应了市场对经济展望信心的不足，表现为持续上涨的防御类红利资产和持续下行的内需类资产的分化。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.578Z","mo":"展望后市偏正面，原因为外强内弱是今年市场主要疲弱影响因素，后续有向好的变化。国内来看，“扩内需”政策有望升温。二季度实际GDP同比增速较一季度放缓幅度略大，从5.3%至4.7%，考虑到下半年的基数等原因，全年实现 5.0%左右的目标增速有一定难度。三中全会和7月底的政治局会议，强调“坚定不移实现全年经济社会发展目标”、“积极扩大国内需求”，预计重点是用好专项债、超长期特别国债等工具；房地产、地方政府债务和中小机构这三大重点风险领域，下半年要继续防范，可能会有新的稳地产和化债政策出台。海外来看，美联储降息预期走强。美国近期就业数据有所走弱， 通胀数据压力有缓解，美元美债等相关资产定价9月美联储将开始降息；虽然后续可能会有预期的反复，但是对于权益市场风险偏好的边际提升以及国内政策的空间打开预期的提升均是很好的交易窗口期。另外美国大选结果带来市场的不确定性，客观评估特朗普上台对中国为中性，直接负面影响为贸易税收提高；偏正向为“商人思维主导”思路下，全球地缘可能有边际缓解可能；从共和党执政纲领来看大类资产价格影响，对内扩财政减税，压通胀，降汇率，加大制造业回流加大传统能源和地产支持等，政策会有执行过程的矛盾。随着后续国内政策空间打开，扩内需细则的推进，有望逐步带来市场的企稳和信心。德邦大消费主要配置为估值合理的大消费类的优质龙头企业，未来随着经济的企稳，企业价值有望迎来回归。","fund":{"_id":3000000008840,"__csrcFundId":7707,"stockCode":"008840","name":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8840,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:49.220Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"德邦大消费混合A","followedNum":4,"fundCollectionId":4000050710000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"德邦大消费混合","setUpDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":654350390.81,"setUpShares":654350390.81,"pinyin":"dbdxfhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20869101","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260812221320,"name":"朱慧琳"},{"stockCode":"j101020492","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":102512251670,"name":"江杨磊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1143720","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc0e7fea5b3eb04c0fe7","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008840,"sao":"本季度市场V型走势，上证综指上涨2.2%，沪深300指数上涨3.1%，深成指下跌1.3%，创业板指下跌3.9%。分板块来看，银行家电和有色板块领涨，医药计算机和电子板块跌幅靠前。　　今年是财政年，广义财政支出比去年有所增长，预算内财政支出较高，由于地方融资平台受限，预算外的财政支出较弱，叠加后对经济有托底但不能预期过高，经济总量将围绕5%的GDP增速中枢的预期展开，整体偏平稳。1-2月经济数据在地产孱弱的情况下，展现出较强的韧性，出口和制造业增速以及服务类消费均有亮点。在总量平稳的情况下，内部结构的分化是投资方向布局的重点考虑，自下而上优选高性价比标的。德邦大消费混合主要配置为估值合理的大消费类的优质龙头企业，基本面良好，盈利稳定。","declarationDate":"2024-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.572Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008840,"__csrcFundId":7707,"stockCode":"008840","name":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8840,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:49.220Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"德邦大消费混合A","followedNum":4,"fundCollectionId":4000050710000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"德邦大消费混合","setUpDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":654350390.81,"setUpShares":654350390.81,"pinyin":"dbdxfhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20869101","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260812221320,"name":"朱慧琳"},{"stockCode":"j101020492","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":102512251670,"name":"江杨磊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1068607","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc0e7fea5b3eb04c0fe6","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008840,"sao":"2023年由于经济修复低于市场预期，A股市场呈现调整的走势。上证综指下跌3.7%，沪深300指数下跌11.4%，上证50指数下跌11.7%，深成指下跌13.5%，创业板指下跌19.4%。分板块来看，通信传媒和计算机电子板块领涨，商业贸易房地产和电力设备板块跌幅靠前。A股市场一季度上涨，二季度开始随着经济预期下行带来市场的持续调整，主要为今年以来国内经济整体呈现先高后低的特征，一季度疫后补偿性消费和生产释放，经济指标全面回暖，但从二季度开始放缓，房地产销售和开发投资持续负增长，出口增速下降，居民就业和收入信心有所影响，因此消费整体也偏弱，消费价格和生产价格维持低迷的状态。","declarationDate":"2024-01-15T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.569Z","mo":"展望后市，目前市场是底部区域判断，负向因素反应较充分。国内经济底部区域，从当前边际变化来看，一些积极信号正在发生，尤其房地产政策进入新一轮升温期，主要目的在于防风险，提振信心。往后看，随着出口的逐步好转、增发国债年后的投入使用、“三大工程”的启动，企业盈利增速中枢有望进一步修复。国内经济变化仍将是未来市场变化的主因，目前市场经过前期的下跌调整后，拉上时间维度来看，未来潜在回报率在逐步提升。德邦大消费主要配置为估值合理的大消费类的优质龙头企业，基本面良好，盈利稳定。","fund":{"_id":3000000008840,"__csrcFundId":7707,"stockCode":"008840","name":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8840,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:49.220Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"德邦大消费混合A","followedNum":4,"fundCollectionId":4000050710000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"德邦大消费混合","setUpDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":654350390.81,"setUpShares":654350390.81,"pinyin":"dbdxfhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20869101","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260812221320,"name":"朱慧琳"},{"stockCode":"j101020492","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":102512251670,"name":"江杨磊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1059593","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc0e7fea5b3eb04c0fe5","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008840,"sao":"本季度市场为倒V型走势，市场信心还在低位，上证综指下跌2.3%，沪深300指数下跌3.5%，深成指下跌7.4%，创业板指下跌8.1%。分板块来看，非银钢铁和银行板块领涨，传媒电力设备和计算机板块跌幅靠前。　　目前市场处于磨底阶段，经济弱势预期充分，政策底明确，经济处于底部区域，再度下行风险小。政策稳增长在不断叠加，降息、化债、存量贷款利率、税收、地产相关政策陆续出台；经济量价在逐步触底，PPI 同比 6 月触底，主要经济指标低位分布在 4-7 月不等，8 月开始大部分指标均有好转。目前市场经过前期的下跌调整后，拉上时间维度来看，未来潜在回报率在逐步提升。德邦大消费主要配置为估值合理的大消费类的优质龙头企业，基本面良好，盈利稳定。","declarationDate":"2023-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.566Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008840,"__csrcFundId":7707,"stockCode":"008840","name":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8840,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:49.220Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","inceptionDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","shortName":"德邦大消费混合A","followedNum":4,"fundCollectionId":4000050710000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"德邦大消费混合","setUpDate":"2020-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":654350390.81,"setUpShares":654350390.81,"pinyin":"dbdxfhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20869101","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":260812221320,"name":"朱慧琳"},{"stockCode":"j101020492","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":102512251670,"name":"江杨磊"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"德邦大消费混合型证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=987075","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecc0e7fea5b3eb04c0fe4","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008840,"sao":"今年以来市场呈现先扬后抑的走势，上证综指上涨3.7%，沪深300指数下跌0.8%，深成指上涨0.1%，上证50指数下跌5.4%，创业板指下跌5.6%。分板块来看，通信传媒和计算机板块领涨，商业贸易房地产和建筑建材板块跌幅靠前。A股市场呈现了一季度上涨，二季度随着经济预期持续下行带来的调整。主要为今年以来国内经济整体呈现先高后低的特征，一季度经济指标全面回暖，但二季度开始放缓，主要为疫后补偿性消费和生产释放完毕后回归到自然的中枢，同时两会设定的GDP5%的目标，增速目标让位至质量目标，经济增速预期持续下修。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:33:02.557Z","mo":"展望后市，市场对本轮经济弱势预期较充分，目前大概率处于经济的底部区域，再度下行风险小。2季度环比和同比动能大概率处于低点，1季度 GDP 同比增速4.5%，两年复合同比增速4.6%，2季度 GDP 同比增速 6.3%，两年复合同比增速3.3%，要实现全年 5%的增速目标，下半年 GDP 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