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4月以后，得益于国内外疫情错位，供需错位，我国出口开始强势复苏并持续至今，直接带动国内经济深V反弹。在坚持不大水漫灌的框架下，除疫情期间短时超预期宽松外，4月过后，伴随经济复苏，国内政策逐步向常态化回归。其中，紧货币先行，过程中仍维持定向宽信用。资本市场表现看，各大类资产跟随疫情及政策走势跌宕起伏，其中债券市场受疫情悲观预期影响，一季度收益率快速下行，4月过后，在货币政策急剧收紧的背景下，走出了史上最快熊市，年底，受信用风险事件影响，货币政策转向偏宽松，债市收益率小幅下行。全年来看，总体债券市场回报较为有限，久期、杠杆、信用下沉等策略在全年不同时间段轮番失效，总体呈现损失较大，收益较小的特征。组合操作层面，总体把握住了年初和年末债券市场的上涨机会，全年来看，为投资者创造了与风险相匹配的收益。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:32:14.273Z","mo":"长期看，鉴于国内政策刺激思路发生了较大变化，尤其经历了过去十年各部门轮番加杠杆后，未来靠加杠杆刺激经济的空间越来越小。相当长时间，“双循环”将是政策主旋律，即经济以内需为主，外需为辅。内需方面，主要依靠国内消费和制造业双轮驱动的模式，意味着，从长期看，除非发生超预期事件，货币政策大开大合的空间将较过去十年大幅缩小，潜在经济增速总体呈现下行态势。展望2021年，受2020年基数影响，经济数据总体表现前高后低，央行的政策调控思路也出现较大变化，在流动性偏紧的框架下，资金利率较难长时间低于中枢水平。鉴于今年政策较去年相对收紧，叠加大量债券到期，信用风险仍不容忽视。组合总体将根据宏观经济形势和政策变化灵活调整持仓，以力争赚取票息收益，尽可能争取较好的资本利得。","fund":{"_id":3000000008644,"__csrcFundId":6979,"stockCode":"008644","shortName":"天弘季季兴三个月定开债券发起(008644)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8644,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:22:10.257Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2019-12-16T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘季季兴三个月定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":5,"fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘季季兴三个月定开债券发起","setUpDate":"2019-12-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"thjjxsgydqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20528641","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":32320172080,"name":"柴文婷"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘季季兴三个月定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=558242","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecbde7fea5b3eb04bd6ba","stockId":3000000008644,"sao":"3季度，国内经济继续呈现恢复式增长态势，其中，供给端修复较快，已经接近甚至超过疫情前水平，需求端相对缓慢，但在逐月好转通道中，总体呈现受逆周期调节的地产、基建等部分恢复较好，内生性的消费恢复相对缓慢的特征，合乎逻辑。货币政策从前期偏宽松状态向常态回归，总体表现为边际收紧，边际收紧从银行间市场向信用市场延展，债券市场一方面受资金中枢抬升影响，一方面受基本面预期好转影响，一方面受供需矛盾影响，总体延续弱势，收益率继续呈现单边上行态势，市场心态较为脆弱。组合操作层面，信用债维持短久期，利率债适度进行波段操作，组合总体平稳运行。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:32:14.271Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008644,"__csrcFundId":6979,"stockCode":"008644","shortName":"天弘季季兴三个月定开债券发起(008644)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8644,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:22:10.257Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2019-12-16T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘季季兴三个月定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":5,"fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘季季兴三个月定开债券发起","setUpDate":"2019-12-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"thjjxsgydqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20528641","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":32320172080,"name":"柴文婷"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘季季兴三个月定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2020年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=492345","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecbde7fea5b3eb04bd6b9","stockId":3000000008644,"sao":"上半年国内经济、政策及债券市场走势围绕疫情展开，一季度受疫情影响，经济弱复苏节奏戛然而止，经济衰退预期急剧升温，全球风险资产大跌，债券资产大涨，政策层面全球迅速进入宽松周期，货币、财政政策轮番加码，二季度国内一方面疫情控制得力，一方面宽松政策显现效果，经济开始企稳回升，各主要部门快速恢复，经济活动接近疫情前水平，货币政策在5月急速转向偏鹰，债市收益率开始大幅上行，主要品种在季度末均回归到疫情前相当的水平。本基金上半年基本维持信用债仓位，同时利用利率债波段操作。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:32:14.268Z","mo":"展望下半年，国内经济缓慢复苏趋势较为确定，但一方面受制于疫情影响的长期性，一方面受制于总体改革基调，上半年逆周期刺激政策并未复制过去几轮周期的猛烈刺激，刺激力度较为有限，因此，经济大概率复苏斜率较为平缓，较难出现非常大幅度的向上弹性，政策层面，总体上半年的宽货币、宽信用在下半年有边际收紧迹象，但大方向的宽松将延续，对于债市而言，大概率围绕中枢波动，收益率向上和向下的弹性和空间均较为有限，此外，需密切关注下半年外部风险，尤其是美国大选前，全球金融市场可能进入波动率持续加大阶段，我国外部的风险不容忽视，而一旦有超预期事件发生，不排除政策层面再度呈现180度转弯，对此，我们将保持持续跟踪及评估。","fund":{"_id":3000000008644,"__csrcFundId":6979,"stockCode":"008644","shortName":"天弘季季兴三个月定开债券发起(008644)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8644,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:22:10.257Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2019-12-16T16:00:00.000Z","name":"天弘季季兴三个月定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":5,"fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘季季兴三个月定开债券发起","setUpDate":"2019-12-16T16:00:00.000Z","pinyin":"thjjxsgydqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","memoNum":2,"managers":[{"stockCode":"db20528641","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":32320172080,"name":"柴文婷"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘季季兴三个月定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=461959","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}