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年美国本土科技行业裁员约9.5万人，2025年为12.7万人。2026年前两个月约为3.3万人，3月甲骨文宣布全球裁员3万人，Meta宣布裁员1.6万人。这种用迅猛的算力置换人力的变化势必会在未来带来收入预期的全面变化，进而导致公司的营收、利润不达预期，最终叙事发生松动。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-22T15:36:26.922Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2026年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1475829","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69ca7b0d7ecbd37c10afbcde","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-03-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"2025年权益市场分化很大，呈现了显著的K型分化，通信电子等AI相关和有色板块涨幅显著领先，而内需板块和红利板块则表现清淡，这种情况不光在中国发生，全球主流权益市场的表现都是类似的。在2025年4月关税的巨大扰动之后，全球权益市场单边向上修复，泛科技AI相关和有色板块贡献了市场的几乎全部涨幅。截至2025年末，标普500指数中前十大股票目前占据了41%的市值和32%的盈利。2025年，这些头部股票贡献了指数53%的回报。出于对强分化走势均衡回归的担忧，我们对于向上趋势内的资产配置有限，这也是我们整体收益不达预期的最主要原因。科技AI、有色（一定意义上，有色的兴奋也得益于AI的火热）的热得发烫和实体经济的疲惫虚弱，造就了偌大的滞涨场景，这其中巨大的鸿沟就是利率水平。现实世界中，中国房地产市场已经是调整的第五个年头，美国重型卡车销量则已经从25年年中开始连续半年跌破了历史2倍标准差的底线，而上次出现这个情况是2007年。由于债务风险的显性化堆积，全球的主要国家的国债收益率都处于一个高位震荡的态势。由于债务规模以及未来预期的不断提升，连续的降息没有体现在债券中，而是体现在了权益和大宗品市场。泛科技AI和有色行情都是更符合传统意义的货币化主导的行情，如果使用传统的黄金定价模型去倒算，得出的利率水平已经和现实中的美债收益率差距超过了500甚至600BP。我们始终担忧这种现实和虚幻之间的巨大鸿沟会在下一刻瞬间被拉近。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-30T13:30:53.567Z","mo":"对于2026来说，是进一步分化，还是回归均衡，是我们最关注的问题。国内方面，基本面正在经历周期底部的结构性转型。一方面投资融资持续低迷，产能出清，地产链和消费仍有一定压力；另一方面中游制造生产韧性超出预期，科技产业取得积极进展，新兴行业出现结构性亮点。当前很有可能是经济周期的拐点。由于中国居民的资产负债表中大量资产存在于房地产市场，而房地产市场的连续低迷使得个人资产负债持续处于被破坏的状态，从我们估算的数据来看，当前的通缩程度和通缩的持续时间都已逼近历史极值。这使得我们对于扭转这一态势的政策预期的关注度显著高于市场。流动性方面，2026年是“十五五”开局首季，预期影响效应极强，同时春节靠后使2月侧重消费、投资与生产风集中于1月，信用扩张幅度直接决定一季度经济“开门红”成色。央行流动性呵护定位未变，叠加“开门红”诉求，短端利率预计不会重现2025年一季度偏紧格局。重点聚焦各地开年的政策部署，关注其以何种政策举措落地一季度“开门红”目标。结合2025年底接续实施的以旧换新政策、提前下达的中央预算内投资及“两重”项目等利好叠加效应，预计年初各地对投资与消费的重视程度及部署力度将进一步前置在1月，而非往年春节后。展望海外，绕不开的是实体经济的疲弱和科技AI热潮的分化。我们认为，一项技术是革命性的科技趋势与一项技术是不是投资泡沫，是两件互不影响的事件。20多年前，科网泡沫破裂了，大量公司和产品消失在了之后的几年中，但没人能否认互联网已然改变了世界。当前AI叙事最大的矛盾点在于没有找到合适的商业模式，一边裁员、动用资本金甚至不惜融资投资天价硬件，一边如同做慈善般的提供AI服务，这显然是不可持续的。卖铲人财报每一页都写满了强劲，但真正落地AI商业价值的公司却不公布财报，这不由得我们提防。一旦趋势遇阻，不止美股科技AI本身，大量全球映射品种以及流动性外溢叙事品种，都可能瞬间承压。美联储连续降息带来的是美债长端的收益率上行，这背后是极其复杂的博弈。美元对于美国来说意味着二战以来的国际秩序，并不是可以被随意放弃的。但高利率下政府的融资成本过大也是不得不解决的难题。美元，美债，美股，今年势必成为不可能三角形，我们还是倾向于美元、美债的重要性更高。我们对于市场看法，依然是红利方面、消费方面较市场积极，对于AI有色新能源较市场要更谨慎。配置上券商作为市场贝塔的主要代表，估值处于非常有吸引力的位置，作为重点配置，同时，医药、军工等行业也都根据具体行业的阿尔法机会进行配置。地产相关、品牌消费、红利股，会根据实际运行的情况以及政策预期的情况来不断调整。AI和有色方面整体配置较市场平均水平低，寻找一些未被充分定价的部分来平衡组合的风格。港股方面，考虑到美元的不确定性，我们还是会以A股为主，辅助一定的港股配置。","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1450434","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e41","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"3季度，市场出现了一个显著的降波的过程。进入8月，市场热点完全集中于科技成长一个方向，其余所有方向都呈现出和科技成长方向的负相关关系，所有资产与A股的短期相关性都在显著下降。基本面上的逻辑上显然并不能解释这种变化，唯一合理的解释来自于流动性，即科技成长板块的上涨吸收了全市场的流动性。9月，市场风格则进一步的极端化。经过3季度的市场运行，A股、港股相对债券已经失去了绝对的性价比，权益风险溢价回归中性，而这是使用全A在作为一个整体指数进行分析的结果，考虑到行情的高度结构性，如果使用行情主线的科技类指数的估值去测算，结果将更加清晰。回顾三季度中国经济依然处于承压的态势当中，这其中房地产的因素不容忽略。尽管房地产开发已经在经济中逐渐降低权重，但毫无疑问，作为居民资产负债表的绝对主力项目，房地产市场低迷势必加剧储蓄的动力，导致通缩预期迟迟无法充分缓解。拉开视角到全球，我们可以发现海外面临的情况与国内高度类似，除了通胀上的判断，国内是单独处于通缩区间、海外普遍处于通胀区间以外，海外市场宏观经济状况也面临一定压力，同时权益市场表现良好，全部的流动性主要集中于科技成长和有色领域。特别是，大多数海外基金经理也都认可当前处于滞涨期（通胀高增长低）而非金发姑娘期（通胀低增长高）。一言蔽之，目前全球市场处于高度共振状态，资金推动的迹象显著，尾部风险高。我们组合仓位中性，结构上看好中国经济的核心资产、看淡中国经济的红利资产、全球共振的科技成长我们都有所配置，出于组合波动的考虑，我们在8月兑现了大多数的科技成长部分，这使得我们的组合在风格上和市场热点有所偏离，特别是进入9月，这种情况更加严重，这也造成了相对排名的落后。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.213Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCod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面，面临非周期性风险，政治风险加速了财政风险的暴露，烘托强美元的氛围，欧美世界全面加速右转，财政宽松后遗症开始加速暴露。强美元意味着全球流动性收紧，后续美元何时见顶取决于非美经济体复苏情况。所以经济的底部和企业盈利的底部很可能与潜在的海外负面冲击重合于2025年的年中。财政是本轮政策的重心，驱动政策转向的焦点在于通缩时期杠杆率的被动抬升，以及应该如何去扭转。因此，资产波动背后隐含的财富效应或成为政策的关注点。当前市场经过9月以来的行情修复，中证800 PETTM从反弹前的12X修复至最新的14X，处在近十年估值均值附近；滚动过去3年分位数创86%水位，短期来看估值弹性并不大。红利风格同样如此，无论是A股中证红利亦或是港股恒生高股息，当前PETTM均处于十年均值附近，滚动过去3年分位数同样在90%水位以上。我们认为，A股市场会重新回归以内为主，在政策不断加力的背景下，整体形成先稳后升之势。港股市场走势健康，基本面展望积极，但必须警惕可能出现的衰退氛围下美元流动性稀缺造成的流动性压力。从行业配置角度讲，政策端提振内需优先级明显抬升，优先消费服务板块的机会，同时关注周期底部的工业、制造业，最后配置部分公用事业作为平衡。","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1253094","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e3d","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"2024年3季度，市场波动巨大，尽管7-8月份一直低迷，但进入9月，国新会及中央政治局会议连续释放积极政策信号，央行、金融监管总局及证监会联合推出政策组合拳，此后，我国时隔两个月针对经济工作再次召开中央政治局会议，对房地产及资本市场等多个领域做出部署，宏观政策表述更加务实积极。最终在多项政策的推动下，季度末权益市场快速回升，成交量明显放大。沪深300季度上涨16%，创业板指上涨29%，恒生指数上涨19.3%，万得普通股票型基金指数上涨11.8%，中证红利上行6.4%。我们的组合配置方向偏向大盘价值风格，在今年2-3月陆续将红利类持仓进行兑现，切换至非银、军工、互联网等，3季度持仓变化不大，最终3季度全季上涨27%，排名相对领先。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.202Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1175282","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e3c","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"2024年2季度，市场先扬后抑波动巨大，市场不同风格之间继续出现显著的结构性分化。最终沪深300在收出长上影线的前提下季度下跌2.1%，创业板指下跌7.4%，中证2000下跌2.9%，微盘股指数下跌12.3%，万得普通股票型基金指数下跌2.5%，红利指数上行1.1%。我们的组合配置方向偏向大盘价值风格，但考虑到基本面的运行以及和其他板块的相对收益，我们已经于2-3月陆续将红利类持仓进行兑现，切换至非银、消费等央国企标的，最终2季度全季下跌3.5%，排名中游，上半年整体排名25%分位数。上半季，国内经济超预期、新“国九条”落地，外资大幅流入人民币资产；下半季，随着美联储偏鹰派言论、欧美对部分产品加征关税、汇率贬值等外部因素扰动，以及国内金融数据指向内需仍然偏弱，叠加拥挤度来到一个相对偏高位置，行业轮动加速，市场持续调整。回头看，二季度国内经济基本延续了“外需好于内需、生产强于消费”的结构，同时仍然面临实体信心不足、地产持续下行的压力。经济亮点是全球补库下的制造业生产和出口改善，但是内需依然非常疲软，尤其是基建和地产投资增速不佳。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.200Z","mo":"我们认为，最值得关注的指标是生产数据和价格数据的背离，不管是中国还是美国，都感受到了生产的不强势和价格的强势（中国的价格强势体现在中上游利润占比持续高位），也就是说多数资源品价格的强势欠缺需求的支撑，一方面原因是供给叙事超越了需求叙事，主导着价格水平，另一方面也是超额的流动性推动，体现在强金融属性的大宗品相对弱金融属性的大宗品走势更强。但没有需求的涨价难以持续，终究下游的疲弱会向上传导拉低原材料价格，重新定义利润在行业中的分配格局。同时，银行存款大量分流债市，无风险资产需求进一步增大。可以看到，当前万得全A股权风险溢价处于2010年以来90.2%分位，沪深300股息率与10年期国债利率比值处于2010年以来99.8%分位。央行连续表态中长期利率与经济运行不匹配，面向部分公开市场业务一级交易商开展国债借入操作，并会在必要时卖出国债。这都指向着滞涨复合衰退的市场叙事是有悖于政策出发点的。据此，我们持续看好权益市场的风险偏好提升，配置非银、军工、消费等板块。","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1147772","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e3b","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"2024年1季度，市场先抑后扬波动巨大，市场不同风格之间分化显著。最终沪深300在收出长上影线的前提下季度涨3.1%，恒生指数下跌3%，创业板指下跌3.9%，中证2000下跌11%，微盘股指数下跌15%，万得偏股混合型基金指数下跌3.1%。于2月份更换经理后，对于组合持仓进行了一定的调整。","declarationDate":"2024-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.197Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode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的基础上获得合理的长期回报，短期波动对投资决策的影响非常有限，主要关注市场是否给予在较低的价格增持优秀企业的机会。在报告期内，组合的主体持仓基本保持稳定。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.178Z","mo":"当前虽然关于疫情、通胀、美国等主要发达国家经济体的短期变化仍然难以准确估计，但相对这些不确定性而言，基于对国内政府强大的资源调动能力的信心，从去年开始逐步走弱的国内经济持续恶化的可能性已经比较低。考虑到部分优质企业的股票价格已经经历一段较长时间的调整期，且其相对竞争优势和长期发展前景并没有显著恶化，我们认为其当前的潜在回报水平已经不错。近两年来，快速扩张的一些行业的股价走势相对较为突出，但随着产业链发展的逐步演化，其供给侧能否形成持续的约束、领先的企业能否建立较为深度的护城河以维护自己的盈利能力会显得越来越重要，行业内部大概率会大幅分化。如果仅仅依靠规模扩张较快而被贴上成长股标签，在不断博弈中估值高位的公司将面临永久性损失的风险。基金组合仍会以长期持有优质企业为主。其主要特点是处在稳定且慢变的领域，公司已经积累了难以轻易被颠覆的竞争力，且其长期增长潜力仍然不错。考虑到中国经济当前仍处在比较快速的增长阶段，不少优质企业的国际竞争优势也在增强，中国人民富起来的时间也太短，这类企业仍同时具备较好的成长空间和确定性，其仍处在对股东回报的黄金期。此外，考虑中国作为追赶型经济体的自身特征，以及A股市场的情绪波动相较成熟市场更为剧烈，组合也会考虑其他类型的投资机会，一类是相对优秀程度虽不顶级但价格足够低的价值类型的公司；一类是公司在发展的早期即展现出足够的差异化经营思路，可能在未来逐步建立护城河的成长型企业。","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=780641","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e33","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"2022年一季度以来，在国际局势恶化、国内宏观经济走弱以及疫情再度复燃等多重背景下，国内股票市场走势较为低迷。除少数在通胀预期下相对受损较小的行业外，大部分公司的股价均经历了一轮调整。本基金组合致力于在承担可控风险的基础上获得合理的长期回报，短期波动对投资决策的影响非常有限，主要关注市场是否给予在较低的价格增持优秀企业的机会。在报告期内，组合的主体持仓基本保持稳定。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.175Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=728304","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e32","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"2021年以来，市场分化程度较大，以沪深300为代表的大盘蓝筹股表现较为低迷，部分中小市值公司以及受益于双碳政策的板块表现相对突出。本基金组合致力于在承担可控风险的基础上获得合理的长期回报，短期波动对投资决策的影响非常有限，主要关注市场是否给予在较低的价格增持优秀企业的机会。在报告期内，组合的主体持仓基本保持稳定。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.173Z","mo":"在此简要陈述下基金经理对于机构投资者中较为流行的以行业景气度作为重要决策依据的观点。行业景气的起落本身是产业发展的客观规律，在行业的高景气阶段，企业发展的各种有利消息接踵而来，这对市场中庞大的参与者都是一种积极的信号。景气度的边际变化经常在短期非常明显，这主要影响的是市场中众多参与者对企业阶段上增长速度的预期。而企业价值是在其整个生命周期中创造的，并非增长快时价值量就高，而增长慢时价值就低。因此追逐景气度的策略是以股票为筹码、以和市场的预期差为坐标的一种交易行为。如若市场过度追求景气度，则可能出现非常激烈的博弈，导致股票阶段上的定价与实际价值发生较大的偏差，从而加剧市场的波动。在这个过程中，对于长期投资者而言，更为关注的是是否有更好的机会买入其长期看好的优质企业。对于产业具备较大想象空间的领域，市场倾向于给予相关的股票较高的估值。较好的增长空间诚然是价值创造的一种因素，但并不是一个充分条件。如果在供给侧没有形成中长期的约束，以及领先的企业不具备一些良好的经济特征以长期维护自己的高盈利能力，则在长时间内供给的总量和结构总是会相对于需求恶化，进而大幅侵蚀企业的盈利能力，相关的股票面临较大的风险。站在目前时点，继续维持长期以来的基本观点。对中国优秀企业的长期投资机会依然充满信心。相对于一年之前，部分优质的公司的价格已经相对更为合理，如继续调整则是更好的介入机会。基金组合的投资重点仍是聚焦于那些具备较好商业模式和企业文化的少数企业。行业上重点仍在消费、制造业、互联网和医疗健康等领域。","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=710405","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e31","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"2021年三季度以来，市场延续了比较大的分化走势。供给紧张的上游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发展的历史，是一部在曲折中进步的历史，更有效率、更先进的技术和组织取代相对低效的事物是一个大概率的事件。因此我们在这个动荡的世界中，选择和最优秀的企业为伴。思考哪些企业最有生命力，最能适应甚至是创造未来，并向其学习是我们的主要工作，而并不是去和市场短期的情绪波动博弈。当前世界正处于“百年未有之大变局”，全世界最优秀企业未来的发展空间大概率会超越大众的线性认知。优秀的企业长期创造回报的空间仍然很大，当然这必须建立在真实的比较优势和盈利基础上，而不是资本市场贴上标签就可以。未来我们会进一步提高研究的效率，持续优化组合，不断寻找更好的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=555365","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e2d","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"2020年三季度以来，国际环境维持了复杂多变的局面，而国内经济逐步在新冠肺炎疫情的短期冲击后走出稳步复苏的态势，国内基本面维持向好。A股市场整体表现较为不错，基金组合也取得了一定收益。需要强调的是，本基金组合致力于获得长期回报，因此短期波动对我们的决策影响非常有限。在三季度，我们组合的主体持仓仍旧保持稳定。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.160Z","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2020年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=492020","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aecb687fea5b3eb04b4e2c","stockId":3000000008174,"sao":"市场经历了2019年的持续上涨之后，在本年初极为充沛的流动性背景下展现出明显的高风险偏好的行情，局部领域过热现象比较明显。而突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情在短期又成为了左右市场表现的主导力量。市场波动较大。在国内疫情得到基本控制，全球主要经济体货币政策较为积极释放的背景下，二季度股票市场又走出了比较强势的风险偏好持续提升的上涨行情。新兴产业和部分消费品行业的阶段表现更为突出。本基金组合的管理目标在于长期投资而非短期投机，市场无论是剧烈波动还是平稳运行都不影响我们对于投资标的的长期价值判断。当然我们的长期投资标的也会在市场的上涨中实现其价值的回归进而得到应有的回报，我们更关注的是长期持有带来的结果，而非短期难以预测的过程。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:30:16.157Z","mo":"站在当前时点，第一我们认为优质标的长期投资机会依然显著，第二我们认为市场仍旧存在结构性的高估和低估。当然随着市场整体的上涨，低估的品种在逐步变得稀缺。这使得市场整体的短期预期收益率应该适当降低，而不是随着市场的快速上涨变的更为乐观。因此，当下我们特别强调建议投资者以更为长远的角度思考问题。我们依然长期看好中国优势产业的长期成长机会，包括但不限于消费、互联网、医药、制造业等产业，但优质的公司其实更为重要。我们会继续坚持用长远的视角筛选优质的标的，相信经历风雨过后会继续为投资者回馈良好的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000008174,"__csrcFundId":7169,"stockCode":"008174","name":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":8174,"masterFundFlag":1,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T21:07:07.899Z","status":"normal","exchange":"jj","shortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合(008174)","inceptionDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050010000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"国泰蓝筹精选混合","setUpDate":"2020-02-26T16:00:00.000Z","setUpAssetScale":4743921273.39,"setUpShares":4743921273.39,"pinyin":"gtlcjxhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20906425","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":261808236260,"name":"张容赫"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"国泰蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=462936","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}