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端的好机遇，还有一些产业将受益于供给端的格局优化。叠加中国股市当前较低的估值水平，我们对A股未来总体回报乐观。","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1141363","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a5b","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"一季度我们的组合变化不大，因为需要修正价值判断的有效信息不多。市场仍然磨人，但也露出了曙光。基本面有所复苏，市场参与者们也渐渐接受了不太突出的增长率--过去曾认为不到30%的增速都不算高，现在开始为勉强够到双位数的增长击节叫好。这很合理，一是人的审美具有适应性，可以随背景变化而调整；二是估值水平下来了，虽然增长率G不高，但PE也不高，让PEG可接受，至少看起来如此。股价表现是市场投票的结果，利润增速是核心评价指标。但在称重的逻辑下，长期的分红水平才最重要，而不是利润的波动形态。我们是称重者，关心的不是基本面拐点何时出现以及复苏的斜率有多高，而是拐点的位置有多低，因为低点对应的极差状态是构造安全边际的重要抓手。高考曾经是考前填报志愿，以中榜为目的的保守报考者，会以模考中表现较差的状态为参照，而非发挥最好的那次。目前来看，很多行业最差的状态已过，有些正处于最差状态。有竞争优势的企业在行业低点仍能获得可观利润，它们是大浪淘沙之后的佼佼者，价格又让人放心，是我们格外珍视的好标的。近几年上市公司分红率持续提升，原因一是资本支出需求下降，二是公司治理水平提升。是一件好事儿，毕竟分红是股票价值经济价值的唯一来源。但也不必把短期分红收益率看得过于重要，长期分红能力更重要。一鸟在手和百鸟在林哪个好？取决于每个人对自己捕鸟能力的判断，还有延迟获得能力的强弱；前者反映风险偏好，后者代表折现率。所以，买价值型股票还是成长型股票，是一道主观选择题，而不是是非判断题，但都是技术难度不低的难题。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.142Z","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1069976","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a5a","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"对很多投资者来说，2023年过得并不平顺：年初期待的基本面强势复苏没有兑现，又遭遇资金外流压力，市场整体估值水平进一步下探，符合传统审美的机构重仓股受伤尤其严重。全年的市场走势，为我们一贯秉持的观点又添加了新的证据，这个观点就是“市场几乎不可预测”，背后的根本原因是人们总自以为是清醒的市场旁观者，但其实他自己就是市场本身——人无法靠未知的事情来预测市场，就如同无法靠左脚踩着右脚步步爬升。虽然组合在2023年略有变化，但我们的投资框架和决策原则却没有变化，那就是基于每一笔资产的性价比来决定对它的持有比例。股价只是决定股票性价比的外生变量，而非一个需要去预测的变量，这就是价值投资的全部要义。我们的组合呈现出一定的“红利”特征，这是自下而上堆叠的结果，并不是刻意为之的策略。价值投资不是红利策略，不是成长策略，不是小市值策略，不是任何一种策略。从结果上看，由于达到甚至超过长期性价比标准的股票较多，组合的整体仓位也较高。截至年底，我们几乎打光了所有子弹，成为同类别基金中的“激进分子”。我们一直认为，稳健不应用低仓位来表达，而应该来自居安思危，来自对重仓股的“丑话说在前头”，来自自己跟自己较劲而不是过度自信和盲目乐观，最终源头是个股的安全边际。经过审慎评估，我们认为目前的组合有较厚的安全边际。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.139Z","mo":"周期性的经济波动通常不影响个股的长期价值，但宏观层面的长期结构性变化是影响企业长期经营的重要外部变量，所以我们聚焦于后者，形成以下几个待修正的粗浅判断。首先，我国的经济总量、老年人口占比和城镇化率等几个指标都不低，这意味着总量层面的高速增长或许会向中高速增长演变。这不是坏事，降速是所有经济体健康发展之后的必然结果，改革开放以来中国持续增长到今天，做不到也不需要继续保持过快增长，过往已取得的成果让当下的政策有底气也有定力。其次，产业结构升级将继续，正如它过去一直在发生。历史经验表明，依靠天然资源的国家更难跨越中等收入陷阱，凭借制造业全球竞争力并能不断升级的国家更有希望，中国显然是后者。产业结构升级的一个附带结果是资本市场中市值权重分布也会升级，新兴产业占比提升，传统产业占比下降。再次，投资回报率不等于市值增长率。如同一只球队中不能所有人都去当前锋，还需要好后卫和好门将，每个角色都有价值。决定长期回报率的是资产的长期质量和今天的买入价格，不是机械的收入或利润增长率，也不是市值增长空间，这是价值投资的基本原理。所以，有的行业受益于需求，有的行业受益于供给，好机会到处有，不必纠结自己的标的是否符合主流审美。最后，国家的各项政策一贯保持着连续性。过去一轮牛熊周期中，很多被投资者视为黑天鹅的事件其实是灰犀牛，世上并没有那么多黑天鹅，如何在不同的时代背景下适时调整关切点，是对投资者研究能力的持续挑战。所以，未来我们会坚持既定框架不动摇，但要允许框架的松散度和柔韧度。作为一个决策系统，它要封闭自洽；作为一个知识系统，它要开放包容。好的投资利器不胜在复杂精密，而胜在适应性。我们将保持学习，与持有人共勉。","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":100314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"name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=879432","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a56","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"报告期内，本基金坚持既定的长期策略，即不预测市场和股价，对个股的持仓比例与其长期潜在回报率正相关。所以，组合的变动也仅是针对市场变化和个股长期基本面变化所作的被动应对，年度净值增长率也是这种应对措施置于市场结构性分化行情下的被动结果。2022年，市场震荡下跌，除个别行业外，多数行业均录得不同程度跌幅。受益于市场的结构性分化以及被动的左侧交易，我们的组合未遭受明显损失，但不宜过度归因，因为这并非能力使然，更像是随机市场中遇到了好运气。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.128Z","mo":"展望未来，市场的表现基本上取决于目前还不知道的因素，这正是市场很难预测的原因。但剔除掉时间这个约束条件后，对市场做一些长期判断就不太难。从价值投资的基本原理中可以推知：一项资产的长期盈利能力越强，当前价格越低，则潜在回报率越高，与接下来的价格涨跌无关。经济从高速增长向中高速增长转变，促使很多行业从需求端的竞争转向供给端的出清，结果大概率是长期盈利能力的提升。结合当前中国资产相对更低的估值状态，长期潜在回报率大概率乐观，但首先要做好短期波动的准备。这并非意味着我们看空2023年的股市，因为我们既不看空，也不看多，对市场走势进行研判，是我们从不擅长也不打算学习的领域。我们会把更多的精力投入到挖掘并跟踪各个行业中有长期竞争优势并能够将其转化为长期超额盈利能力的企业上，然后耐心等待市场先生出价即可。","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=863071","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a55","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"三季度市场表现纠结，整体下行态势。由于市场风格的变幻，虽然我们的净值没有特别大的波动，排名却总是上蹿下跳，这深刻说明了一个道理：排名不由自主，全凭市场喜好。市场纠结于需求的拐点，需求依赖于政策：一是稳增长政策，二是防疫政策。所以，月度宏观数据、旬度行业数据、日度疫情数据都成了投资人追逐的边际信息。但如果退回到投资的原点，会发现拐点其实没啥意义。价值是“重量”，而非“趋势”，所以真正重要的是长期结构性因素，而非周期性因素。长期经济增长会降速，这是一个大概率判断。但减速不意味着投资价值的损耗，高速到低速的转换过程虽然是一次性阵痛，长期看存量经济却更可能催生更好的产业格局，更好的产业格局带来更丰厚的利润。长期利润是价值的决定因素，而非过程中的曲线形态。长期回报除了取决于企业价值本身之外，还受制于买入价格，或者简而言之，超额收益来自“物超所值”，也不是过程中的曲线形态。所以我们的目标是以尽可能低的价格买尽可能好的东西，好东西的评价标准是长期重量，而非短期趋势。而低价的好货更多埋藏在市场的偏见之下，所以投资组合形成于对市场的被动应对，而非主动调配，或者说是主观认知和市场出价的交集。这意味着随着环境的变化，我们的组合也会发生变化。不管“深度价值”的准确定义到底是什么，我们都无法保证自己永远深度价值，因为只要是低价的好货，没必要关注它属于哪一个行业哪一种风格。结合竞争力和估值状态，当下的组合比较稳固。至于市场会如何走，无需判断，应对即可。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.125Z","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=808136","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a54","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"上半年市场波动较大，一季度剧烈下跌，二季度大幅反弹，在这一过程中，价值型股票表现相对稳定，成长型股票波动更加剧烈。而我们一直以长期视角看问题，并希望股票的价格提供足够保护，结合市场提供的估值水平，与多数同行相比在价值型股票中配置更多，所以显得相对平稳，虽然也并没有什么出色战绩。市场为何会如此波动剧烈？根源或许是投资者整体性的焦虑。焦虑的点在哪里？源自对“效率”的极致追求。效率如何体现？最好是买入即涨，卖出即跌。如何做到买入即涨，卖出即跌？需要在边际信息追逐赛中占先。有哪些边际信息需要关注？不一而足，包括但不限于：货币政策动向，稳增长政策预期及落地效果，疫情的反复，国际资本流动，还有永不缺席的基本面“景气度”。正因为影响因素多，就产生了一种迷惑性现象，即我们很容易做后见之明的事后诸葛亮，却很难当先见之明的预言家。比如，2018年基本面的大底，构成了成长股2019和2020年气势如虹的上涨基础；疲弱的宏观表现让消费股在2021年承压；而电动车销售的持续井喷保障了新能源板块的一骑绝尘；供给端的出清也让资源品走出了结构性牛市……头头是道的解读，没有一点点指导意义，因为决定未来涨跌的信息还在未来，并且不止取决于上述因素会如何演绎，还取决于当前市场价格中反映的市场预期。所以，猜测市场先生将要出啥牌，实际上是高阶博弈，进而内卷，“钱景”也就变得高度不确定。我们很早就放弃了择时，任凭净值在市场波诡云谲中涨跌，而专注于提高长期赚钱的概率。这一投资框架有些剑走偏锋，但很好用——不争胜，更难败；愿意忍受波动，也未必大波动。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.122Z","mo":"立足当下，展望未来，抛开短期预测不谈，从长期看我们依然乐观：一是对中国经济前景乐观，波动在所难免，体量大了长期潜在增长率也会下降，但存量经济下更容易形成好的产业格局，好的产业格局带来更好的资本回报，巨大的内需市场和全球比较优势给优秀企业提供广阔的表演舞台，看空国运者是杞人忧天；二是对组合当下的状态乐观，在安全边际思想指引下，我们一直习惯于发下等愿，重仓一只股票的前提是能容忍它的缺点而不是无限放大它的优点，没有太多可失去的，不确定性就关乎能得到多少。不贪心，就无需用百米冲刺的节奏去跑一场马拉松。所以，下半年行情会如何演绎，一点都不重要；下半年如何规划投资，也根本不是问题。下半年我们要做啥，不是现在能规划的，取决于彼时的市场状况，我们笃信：市场只能应对，不能预测。","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=781274","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a53","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"一季度市场比较折腾，突出表现是“事儿”多：俄乌冲突，疫情重来，美元加息……对多数人来说投资体验不佳，过程充满煎熬。在稳增长预期的带动下，蛰伏多年的传统周期行业有相对更好的表现，押对的人，压力轻一些。我们属于不小心押对的人。之所以是“不小心”，是因为我们从来都不会给市场号脉，不知市场当下的预期是啥，也就更不知超预期的因素在哪。对一个不以“买入即步入上涨通道”为投资目标的人来说，任何时候手中的股票涨了，都是运气，都是不小心押对了注。我们对传统产业的持仓时间不短了，从时效性上看，显然做得不好。但不追求时效性是我们框架的主要特征，我们要的是长期胜率而不是短期效率。一个推论是，市场不是拿来预测的，而是拿来应对的：股票便宜了就多买点，不便宜就少买点，特别贵就不买或者卖。至于接下来是涨是跌，不在我们考虑范围之内。所以，我们在一季度的应对就是坚持个股持仓比例与潜在回报率的正相关操作。大家看到的组合变化，都基于并且只基于这一个原则，与宏观经济走势无关，与利率的周期性波动无关，与上市公司的周期性业绩涨落无关，甚至与俄乌冲突、美元加息也没太大关系。在研究上区分短期周期性因素和长期结构性因素，在决策上坚守价值投资的基本原理，关心的问题就会变少，问题少了就更容易理清。因为投资中真正重要的问题，不是那些看起来很重要却根本搞不清楚的问题，而是少数能把握得住的问题。","declarationDate":"2022-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.119Z","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=722497","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a52","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"得益于自下而上的投资框架，我们在2021年的净值表现没有像重仓金融地产或成长白马的同行那样难熬，也不如在军工、新能源热门赛道下重注的同行那样出挑，整体回报比较平稳，超过了我们长期复合收益率目标，相对排名也还不错。感谢市场的馈赠，我们运气不错，对于一个不以短期结果为目标的管理人来说，短期结果好，只能归功于好运气；当然，短期表现不好时，也可以推托给坏运气。没错，我们把投资当作马拉松，以安全到达终点为目标，而不介意排名，更不介意任何一个年度的排名。道理很简单，你不能把一场马拉松拆成422个百米冲刺。但投资中吊诡的一点就是短期结果与主观意愿没关系，这意味着即便你想要短期的好结果，也未必能得到；即便你不介意短期结果，也未必就会差。如果把排名前三分之一当作好与坏的分界线，那每年都有三分之二的人表现不尽如人意，我相信其中几乎每个人都想要表现好的。认识到这个道理，所以我们选择了不考虑短期业绩，把短期结果交给运气，既是豁达，也是认知。我们认识到，愿意慢，未必慢。一只股票，要么被高估，要么被低估，却很难被准确估价；一个基金经理，要么被过度赞誉，要么被过度贬损，也很难被准确评价。一年太短，三年也不够长，两轮牛熊周期之内的业绩，基本由随机性主导。所以，请大家给基金经理多一点时间，多一点宽容，相信大多数都不会让持有人失望。基金赚了业绩，基民赚不到钱，是这个行业反复上演的悲剧，终结它，需要管理人、渠道和持有人三方的共同努力。请大家不要轻易赞美一个业绩好的基金经理，也不要过度抱怨一个业绩差的基金经理，非要衡量一个人的水平，几个定性的特征或许比定量的指标更有效：一看投资框架的完备性，二看是否知行合一。价值投资是自下而上地以尽可能低的价格买尽可能好的资产，这个目标跟市场行情无关，跟货币政策无关，跟市场上广大投资者关注的绝大多数影响股价涨跌的因素都无关。所以，对于市场我们只应对，不预测：高风险报酬比的股票多了，就多买，少了就少买，仅此而已。这就是价值投资的基本要义，它甚至都称不上是一种投资策略。用最基础的商业模式分析、竞争优势分析的语言工具，去筛选、打磨和考证各个行业中的领先企业，等待一个好价格，就够了。过去我们是这样说的，也是这样做的，未来准备继续这样做。","declarationDate":"2022-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.116Z","mo":"我们无法提供对未来一年市场走势的研判，也不知哪个风格或哪个板块会表现更好，在我看来这些都是市场先生掷骰子的结果。但着眼长期，市场却很友好，投资周期越长，预期回报率越高，亏损可能越低。这是朴素却很少人在意的道理，我们在意，所以一直坚持做长期决策，不做短期择时，过去的成绩还不错，期待以后也不差。中国经济将降速，但股市长期回报却可能提升，因为资产质量的提升。一类资产的长期回报取决于分子端的盈利能力，和分母端的买入价格。影响长期盈利能力的不是增速，而是竞争格局，存量经济下大部分行业的格局会趋向优化，带来有竞争优势企业的盈利能力提升。另一方面，市场倾向于给高增速以慷慨的高估值，反而给稳健者低估值，这意味着当下A股市场（也包括港股市场）中存在不少的高风险报酬比标的，跟它们的行业属性无关。综上所述，我们的目标是长期风险报酬比，不是单一年度的收益率，更不是阶段性排名；我们只应对市场，不预测市场，所以对当下的市场抱持乐观的态度。持有人如果想买入我们的基金后净值即步入上涨通道，则可能会失望，非我们不愿，是真的不能；如果您也有与我们同样的耐心，则前路并不难行。","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hyb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eclarationDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.108Z","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=569174","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a4e","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"2020年市场的关键词是\"分化\"，在疫情的肆虐下，受疫情影响较小的医药、科技、消费、新能源等行业在维持相对较高的景气度的同时，也享受了估值水平的快速提升；另一方面，受疫情影响较大的顺周期传统行业则估值水平不断下移。截至年底，两类股票的估值差距达到历史最高水平。    投资中的一个最基本原理是：股票的长期回报率由上市公司的盈利能力（ROE）、成长空间以及估值水平决定，与盈利能力正相关，与估值水平负相关，与成长空间可能正相关也可能负相关。所以，相对于市场主流观点，我们不太看重\"业绩增速\"，特别看重竞争优势所决定的\"盈利能力\"，和作为投资成本的\"估值水平\"。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.105Z","mo":"市场可以被描述，而不能被预测。当前的高度分化，并不意味着市场风格分化立刻会发生收敛，但长期潜在回报率的差异却可以评估。在传统行业中，已经或即将胜出的有竞争优势的龙头企业，目前尚能提供宜人的估值水平；此外，以极低的价格买入可能的\"衰退\"行业龙头，也不失为一种高胜率投资，前提是估值水平要足够低，且要回避价值陷阱。总之，我们对股票的偏好已经反映在投资组合中，对于市场热度极高的新能源及电动车板块，我们认同它们将面临巨大的需求增长，但行业的远期利润水平和谁将成为赢家还难以预计。","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=550578","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a4d","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"随着经济数据的好转和对疫情担忧的消退，三季度市场整体呈现震荡上行态势，主流宽基指数均录得些许上涨，各行业的龙头个股竞相创出历史新高。应该说，市场整体热度是较高的，一个附带结果是股票的估值水平也站到了历史中位，所以，我们现在所处的位置已经不是牛市的起点。但结构性的分化仍然非常显著，一边是高高在上的核心资产，一边是被弃之如敝履的周期行业。前者的估值在历史高位，后者的估值在极端低位，所以，我们现在所处的位置也不是牛市的终点。我们的基本策略是首先对企业价值进行评估（无关行业、风格地适用同样的估值方法），然后寻找价格上的安全边际，安全边际越高，风险报酬比越高，则买入比例越高。根据我们的观察，目前市场上仍有不少高风险报酬比标的，并集中在那些\"不性感\"行业。因为长期回报只取决于价值与价格的对照关系，所以当前的配置原则是集中于高安全边际品种，远离热门领域。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.101Z","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=489968","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec9e77fea5b3eb0499a4c","stockId":3000000006624,"sao":"市场对疫情的担忧逐渐缓解，关注的重心重回基本面。因此不少弱周期甚至逆周期的行业表现突出，包括但不限于医药、食品饮料、新能源等，这些行业的估值水平和达到历史高位；而一些顺周期有业绩下滑担忧的传统行业表现相对低迷，估值水平停留在历史低位。但\"市场评论\"这件事有显著的\"事后诸葛亮\"效应。总览我们目前的组合，持仓品种具有以下两个特征：（1）是所在行业的领先者，（2）估值水平处在低位。所以，目前的组合状态是让我们满意并安心的。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:23:51.099Z","mo":"我们有充足的信息来解释过去半年来的市场表现，但对未来半年的表现进行预测时，依然毫无头绪。所以，我们应集中精力进行一些长期的、置信度较高的判断。当前时点，我们认为：（1）疫情对基本面的冲击是一次性的，逆全球化大概率是暂时的；（2）中国经济的产业链完整性、庞大的内需市场以及制造业的核心竞争力，是未来持续发展的根本保障，长期不宜悲观；（3）经济增速下台阶时，传统产业在供给端将逐渐出清进而集中度提升，这会提高投资回报率；（4）在此基础上，A股市场整体的投资回报率将比较可观。","fund":{"_id":3000000006624,"stockCode":"006624","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":161,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2019-02-24T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":1383100000,"market":"a","tickerId":6624,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合(006624)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":6043,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T20:16:20.320Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2019-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000051790000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"中泰玉衡价值优选混合","memoNum":13,"pinyin":"ztyhjzyxlhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20149026","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1003140050,"name":"姜诚"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"中泰玉衡价值优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=448261","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}